Solar Energy Potential of South Africa Robyn Hume Background Over the past decade, the energy crisis in South Africa has continued to worsen. The country has a long history of nation-wide, rolling black outs, which is an intentional power shutdown and a last resort used by an electric company to avoid a total blackout of the power system. This occurs when the energy demand simply cannot be met and is common in developing countries where electricity generation is underfunded or transmission infrastructure is unmanaged. Eskom, the company that provides over 95% of energy generation for South Africa, is struggling to meet the energy demands especially in the winter months when heat is needed. Continued power outages will affect the country s mining industry, which is a large part of the economy, and threaten platinum and gold production as well as the strength of the rand currency. Not only does the country lack enough energy to support its growing economy, it also relies heavily on coal. This natural resource provides 77% of the nations energy. Because of this, South Africa is the 14 th largest emitter of greenhouse gasses in the world. Because South Africa is a developing country, or a Non-Annex1 Country, it is not required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by any international standards. However, the Department of Energy has introduced the White Paper on Renewable Energy and Clean Energy Development to support a less carbon-intensive energy economy. This requires 10000 GWh of energy to come from renewable sources, mainly biomass, wind, and solar by 2013. This along with the Integrated Energy Plan, are policies that are trying to make the country more sustainable in the future. Currently, companies like Aurora are trying set up solar farms to meet the energy needs of the country. Another company, Building Energy Africa in conjunction with WBHO, plans to complete the Kathu Solar Park by 2014. The energy crisis is worth researching because it could destroy the economy by halting mines and industry operations as well as contribute to air pollution and global warming due to the dependence on coal. Solar is a viable option in South Africa because
it receives one of the highest levels of solar radiation in the world. However, solar panels have certain location requirements that have to be researched in order to find the best location that will yield the best results. GIS can analyze the amount of sunlight required, the amount of shade in the area, the slope of buildings, and the orientation of these buildings. Solar panels in South Africa should ideally be placed facing North at the same angle as the latitude of their location. To be most efficient, they should be adjusted twice a year to catch the most sunlight unless they a system is installed with solar tracking and can automatically follow the sun throughout the day. Literature Review In a study surrounding the University of Arizona in Tucson, four square miles were analyzed in order to find areas for large-scale solar farms. Although Arizona is one of the states with the highest solar photovoltaic resource potential, finding a suitable location is challenging due to zoning restrictions. Data was collected from a light detection and ranging image which shows the area surrounding the university. GIS was then used to determine the right elevation, aspect, slope, and radiation in order to find the best location to install a solar farm. The goal of the study was to find rooftops that faced south or were flat and have a slope that is not too steep for installing panels and could receive a minimum threshold of annual solar radiation. A program called Solar Boston is using GIS to map the existing solar installations as well as analyze the city s rooftop solar energy potential. GIS was used to promote solar energy to investors because it could easily show every building in the city that had solar potential. GIS analysts were able to do this through using the digital elevation model (DEM) of the city and through the solar radiation tools in the program. Other alternative energy studies involving wind power have also used GIS to map the affects of building wind facilities in certain areas. For example, BirkNielson Sweco Architects in Denmark created an environmental impact assessment for wind turbines by factoring in the design, size, syle, of the turbines as well as the location. Thematic maps were created with data that informed the community as well as politicians about the wind farms. These studies provide the general groundwork for how to establish the best locations for solar panels. However, these studies have not occurred in South Africa where the solar radiation is high, and the amount of available electricity is low. Few studies have looked at the cost of implementing solar farms, which could be done using GIS. Another important aspect that seems to be missing in many reports is consideration of the wildlife in the area. Along with the requirements for the solar panels, GIS can also be used to find locations a safe distance away from animal habitats that should not be disturbed. Hypothesis By using GIS, I can locate the best places to install solar panels or solar farms in South Africa that would reduce dependence on coal as well as meet the energy needs of the country to prevent rolling blackouts. GIS can take into account the perfect weather conditions as well as orientation of certain buildings and proximity to other communities that may not want to see solar farms in order to find the best locations. It could also help
determine which types of solar panels and which locations would be the most cost effective. Data Requirements There is a lot of data needed for this project. Climate information for the country is needed including how many annual cloudy days there are versus sunny days and how much solar radiation each part of the country gets. Elevation data along with land use data is needed to see what areas are open for solar farms, and what type of buildings may be suitable for solar panels. Information regarding endangered species and animal habitats that cannot be destroyed is required in order to keep construction at a safe distance. Climate and habitat information will already be available for use in this project. We will need to get an aerial image of the country and create a DEM in order to start using GIS. Most of the information will be structured in raster form because there will be clear requirements for installing solar panels. A raster can be created to incorporate the minimum thresholds for sunlight, elevation, slope, and distance from habitats and communities. With all this information combined, it will show which areas can be used to create solar farms. Analytic Methods The first step in this process would be to get a LIDAR image of the country that would show residential and commercial development as well as open areas. Next, the DEM would be created from this using ArcGIS. The Area Solar Radiation tool under the Spatial Analyst extension would be used to create a solar map. This will consider shading from buildings, the position of the sun, and elevation. We will have to consult with experts that can determine how much direct sunlight is needed to provide enough energy as well as the correct elevation and position for the highest efficiency. We will also have to consult with wildlife experts in order to find a minimum distance to stay away from certain species since we may find a field appropriate for a solar farm that is in the middle of an animal habitat. The next step would be to analyze all this data and make a raster calculation for each, and then combine them. The Raster to Polygon tool could then be used to find the largest suitable areas. This will create a final map where solar panels can be installed and will also help calculate the number of panels that will fit in that area. From here, we could calculate how much energy each areas needs and what it would cost to install these systems. Anticipated Results I expect to find many areas throughout the country that will be a viable location to install solar panels or create solar farms. Although the installation will be expensive, research could be done to find the best model of solar panels for each area in the country and the energy needed could be calculated to find the correct number of panels required. Policy Applications
Under the Integrate Resource Plan, there is a twenty-year projection of electricity demand and production that ends with 42% of electricity coming from renewable sources. This project will help the country meet those goals. It will establish what areas need to be focused on in order to meet the energy demand and become more sustainable. Once the government sees all the locations that have solar power potential, they could offer more tax incentives to encourage people to consider installing solar panels. Because the population that will be able to afford solar panels on their homes is limited, the government should create more policies to fund large scale solar farms. Budget *assuming a LIDAR image already exits and there is no need to pay for the technology or pilot to take image GIS Analyst ($25/hr for 2 months=$4,000) Solar Energy Consultant ($20/hr for 2 months=$3200) Wildlife Consultant ($20/hr for 2 months=$3200) GIS Software (2,500) Computer ($1000) TOTAL: 13,900 + overhead costs of 40% ($5560)=$19,460 Timeframe Data Collection (solar panel prime conditions/habitat info)-2 months DEM creation from LIDAR image/data Analysis- 2 months Works Cited Brand South Africa. Infrastructure. May 2013. Web. 14 May 2013. <http://www.southafrica.info/business/economy/infrastructure/energy.htm#.uzm CWDkbpUQ>. Chaves, Andrea and A. Terry Bahill. Locating Sites for Photovoltaic Solar. Fall 2010. Web. 13 May 2013. <http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/1010/solarsiting.html>. Creamer, Terence. Developers of Kathu Solar Park Expect to Start Building this Month. 8 November 2012. Web. 14 May 2013. <http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/developers-of-kathu-solar-parkexpect-to-start-building-this-month-2012-11-08>. Esri. GIS to Meet Renewable Energy Goals. Fall 2009. Web. 13 May 2013. <http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/gis-to-meet.html>. Pur Solar and Electrical. Getting the Best Solar Panel Efficiency and the Factors that Affect It. 2012. Web. 12 May 2013. <http://www.pursolaraz.com/learn-aboutsolar/what-affects-solar-panel-efficiency-2/>.
South African Government Information. Energy. March 2013. Web. 14 May 2013. <http://www.info.gov.za/aboutsa/energy.htm#irp>. Visser, Jaco. Biggest Crisis Since 2008 Looms for South African Mines: Energy. 21 March 2013. Web. 14 May 2013. <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03- 22/biggest-crisis-since-2008-looms-for-south-african-mines-energy.html>. World Wide Fund for Nature. South Africa s 21 st Century Energy Plan? March 2012. Web. 14 May 2013. <http://awsassets.wwf.org.za/downloads/m_g_supplement_final_draft_sent.pdf>.