Availability of Compressed Natural Gas

Availability of Compressed Natural Gas Oliver Lake Mentor: Ross Pursifull 28 th May 2013

US CNG Vehicles CNG is being rapidly adopted in high fuel consumption vehicles Costs 40% less than gasoline = $1.78 per gasoline gallon equivalent Produces 20% less CO2 than gasoline 50% of vehicle orders in the garbage/recycling industry are for CNG and the percentage is growing by 10% per year NGVs introduced in a wide variety of commercial applications -Light-duty trucks and sedans -taxi cabs -Medium-duty trucks -UPS delivery vans and postal vehicles -Heavy-duty vehicles transit/school buses and street sweepers Significant NGV adoption is not occurring in cars and half-ton pickups

NGV Inhibitors Infrastructure Limited number of fast fill CNG stations Public see CNG as inconvenient Conversion Cost Costly initially to buyer Availability Few NGV models available. Rarely in dealer stock Tank consumes cargo space A volume of 3.8 gallons required to store 1 GGE of CNG

CNG Fuel Cost Advantage per 100,000 Miles Fuel Cost Save by Using CNG Initial Cost of CNG Conversion Gasoline Price minuscng Price (per gallon) Vehicle mpg Conversion Prices (MSRP) $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 Ford ¾ ton 13 mpg $7,780 15 mpg $6,667 $10,000 $13,333 $16,667 $20,000 $23,333 2013 GM Express (Large Van) 14 mpg $15,910 Vehicle Fuel Economy 20 mpg $5,000 $7,500 $10,000 $12,500 $15,000 $17,500 2013 GM Silverado 13 mpg $11,000 25 mpg $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 Ford Transit Connect 24 mpg $6,200 30 mpg $3,333 $5,000 $6,667 $8,333 $10,000 $11,667 Honda Civic 32 mpg $6,710 Payback for CNG cars and pickups exists. Why little adoption? Is it the lack of infrastructure?

Availability of NGVs in High Volume Vehicle Segment Half ton pickups represent 11.8% ofus sales and 2/3 of pickup sales yet there is nooem (or OEM approved conversion) NGV half-ton pickup available today. The supersegment(fusion/escape/focus) represents over 50% sales and there is only one US CNG vehicle, the Civic. And it is not available as bi-fuel.

NGVs with Zero Cargo Space Loss European cars with well-packaged CNG tanks Mercedes B200 NGV http://www.ngvglobal.com/mercedes-benz-b-200-natural-gas-drive-will-debut-in-paris-0907 Audi A3 g-tron http://www.caranddriver.com/news/2014-audi-a3-sportback-g-tron-cng-hatchback-news VW Eco Up! http://www.treehugger.com/slideshows/cars/vw-debuts-eco-natural-gas-car-29-less-co2-mile-prius/ Honda Civic NGV Tank leaves little trunk space. European NGVs not currently available in US Mercedes-Benz B 200 Bi-Fuel with No Interior Space Loss

Chicken or Egg? CNG seen as Chicken or Egg problem Lack of CNG fueling infrastructure limits NGV sales Lack of NGV sales limits CNG fueling infrastructure development. 2015? CNG Impala

NGV Adoption What is the key inhibitor? What is not the key inhibitor? We will examine the assertion that the lack of CNG fueling infrastructure is the primary inhibitor of NGV adoption

Project Goal Find total populations within certain radii (1, 2, and 4 miles) of CNG stations using 2010 US census data

Total Number of Public CNG Stations 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Number of CNG Stations Total Number of CNG Stations Annualized 2013 # of Public CNG Stations based off first 3 months of 2013 2013 is first three months of theyear Years Annual Number of Public CNG Stations added since 1990 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Number of CNG Stations Added Annualized 2013 Value Number of CNG Stations added since 1990 2013 is first three months of theyear Year

2011-2013 Public CNG Station Additions Number of Public CNG Stations added since 2011 each Quarter 45 40 35 # Stations 30 25 20 15 Number of Public CNG Stations added since 2011 each Quarter 10 5 0 Quarter

Project Process Explored the US census data to see how to break data down into the desired sections = the radii Public station data received from US Department of Energy report on Alternative Fuels published 5/22/2013 Explored a number of free services in order to find convenient method for data analysis = intrigued by www.freedemographics.com Contacted customer support and sales through email and telephone to find method to add data as a batch based on Latitude and Longitude

Demographics Allows access to interactive maps and detailed summary and comparison reports Provides fast access to U.S. Census data sorted by geographies and demographic characteristics Uses address or latitude and longitude to pinpoint locations

CNG Station Research Example

Initial Problem: Overlap of Areas Overlap of areas due to close station proximity causes population to be double counted 1 2 1 1 People have 2 or more CNG stations within radii People have 1 public CNG station within radii

Preliminary Findings (without Accounting for Overlap) Total Population within 1 mile in US = 5,459,680 1.768% Total Population within 2 miles in US = 23,856,447 7.727% Total Population within 4 miles in US = 86,454,780 28.002% Population 0-1 miles = 5,459,680 1.768% Population 1-2 miles = 18,396,767 5.959% Population 2-4 miles = 62,598,333 20.275% 2010 US population = 308,745,538 people http://www.census.gov/2010census/news/releases/operations/cb10-cn93.html Current US population = 316,668,567 people http://www.census.gov/popclock/ 2.566% increase in population from 2010 to 2013, would be similar increase in number of people within distances of CNG stations *Data from 2010 US Government Census and 2013 US Department of Energy Report on Alternative Fuels

Populations (Accounting for Overlap) *Courtesy of Gene Rinas of Alteryx, Inc

5.3 Million Live within 1 mile of a Public CNG Station (Accounting for Overlap) Total Population within 1 mile in US = 5,294,227 1.715% Total Population within 2 miles in US = 21,453,837 6.949% Total Population within 4 miles in US = 59,940,751 19.414% 2010 US population = 308,745,538 people http://www.census.gov/2010census/news/releases/operations/cb10-cn93.html Current US population = 316,668,567 people http://www.census.gov/popclock/ 2.566% increase in population from 2010 to 2013, would be similar increase in number of people within distances of CNG stations *Data from 2010 US Government Census and 2013 US Department of Energy Report on Alternative Fuels

Conclusions Given the current CNG fuel price advantage, pickups and sedans can pay back the current vehicle conversion price Light duty NGV sales remain small Estimated 6000* light/medium duty NGVs sold in 2012 5.3 million US residents live within 1 mile of a CNG station 21.5 million US residents live within 2 miles of a CNG station 59.9 million US residents live within 4 miles of a CNG station CNG is readily available for millions and NGV sales are small in comparison Therefore CNG infrastructure is not key factor holding back NGV adoption *NGVA is soon to publish a 2012 NGV production number.

Acknowledgements Gene Rinas, a Pre-Sales Engineer of Alteryx, Inc Used premium Alteryxservice to allow overlap computation = The population by distance done as non-overlapping Radii Ross Pursifull, Ford Motor Company Guided the project

Appendix

Additional Population Served by Adding 1 Station # Stations with Certain Population Numbers Contained 140 120 100 # Stations 80 60 # Stations 40 20 0 Populations Within 1 Mile of Station

2013 Half-Ton Pickups Sales Total # Vehicles Sold in First 4 Months of 2013 4,974,534 Half-Ton Trucks by Make # Sold in First 4 Months of 2013 Chrysler Ram 109,003 Ford F series 227,873 Chevrolet Silverado 156,044 GMC Sierra 55,004 Nissan Titan 6,150 Toyota Tundra 31,856 Total 585,930 Half-Ton Trucks as % of Market 11.779%

Sample of CNG Station Data Formula used to calculate distances between stations: 6371*ACOS(COS(RADIANS(90-LATITUDE 1))*COS(RADIANS(90-LATITUDE 2))+SIN(RADIANS(90-LATITUDE 1))*SIN(RADIANS(90-LATITUDE 2)) *COS(RADIANS(LONGITUDE 1-LONGITUDE 2)))/1.609

Worksheet Example In this sheet I was determining (using the formula shown) the distances between the various public CNG stations and I highlighted all those which were closer than 8 miles as this meant that the areas would overlap to some extent

Works Cited http://www.consumerenergycenter.org/transportation/afvs/cng.ht ml www.freedemographics.com http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data_download http://www.census.gov/popclock/ http://www.census.gov/2010census/news/releases/operations/cb1 0-cn93.html http://www.wasterecyclingnews.com/article/20130211/news01/1 30219998/cng-continues-years-long-push-into-trash-collectionmarket

Contact Info Oliver Lake Cornell Undergrad opl2@cornell.edu