Årskonference Energi på havet Ribe 5. oktober 2011 Regionaløkonomiske aspekter: Udviklingsperspektiver, gp p klyngedannelse yg og ekstern afhængighed Andreas P. Cornett, IFG, SDU Sønderborg cornett@sam.sdu.dk
Energi på havet: Makroanalysen 2 aspekter: 1. Formålet med denne delanalyse er at kortlægge og analysere de makroøkonomiske determinanter for udviklingen af vindenergi branchen i en international, national og regional kontekst. Fokus på strukturskift og betydningen af ændringer i de politisk bestemte rammebetingelser 2. Derudover analyseres makroaspekter ved klyngedannelser inden for området, herunder indflydelsen af ændringerne i den globale arbejdsdeling og efterspørgselsstruktur Her undersøges blandt andet samspillet med den regionale udviklingspolitik og den aktører i et Triple Helix perspektiv. A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 2
Energi på havet: Makroanalysen Globalisering Erhvervsudvikling regional balance Regulering og facilitering: i EU National regional/lokal : begrænsning eller facilitator for sektorens og den regional udvikling Analysens komponenter A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 3
Samspillet mellem analyseelementerne: Branche Virksomhed Makro økonomiske Klynger & erhvervspolitiske forhold A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 4
Regional vækst og udviklingsmodel Source: Modified d figure based on The Ministry i of the Interior and Health, 2004, p. 28 and Etzkowitz & Leydesdorff d, 2000. A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 5
Regionaløkonomisk i kanalyse: Indikatorer Sektor & branche: Værditilvækst Export/import Beskæftigelse Uddannelse og kompetencer Subsidier og støtteordninger A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 6
Figure 1 Cluster entities and units entities in an off shore wind energy service and maintenance cluster. Consultants Technological Institutes SME manufacturing and service providers MNC/ Large companies (System providers, anchors in prod. chain, outsidethe the cluster area, i. Vestas or Siemens Windpower) Business Development Agencies etc. Educational and research institutions Public sector authorities (local and external) Source: Based on Etzkowitz & Leydesdorff d 2000, her quoted from Cornett & Ingstrup 2010, p.58 A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 7
According to Porter (2003, p.562), as mentioned din a previous presentation a cluster can be defined:...as a geographically proximate group of interconnected companies, suppliers, service providers and associated institutions in a particular field, linked by externalities i of various types....clusters are important because of the externalities that connect the constituent industries, such as common technologies, skills, knowledge and purchased inputs. At least in a European context, the Danish Wind power industry fulfills as whole also the geographical condition. More important to note is that Porter explicitly stress that an industry can become a part of several clusters, which can cause problems in the empirical assessment of cluster performance (i.e. with regard to employment). From a conceptual point of view the issue is solved by a distinction between a narrow and broad cluster definition. The former is based on the strongest geographical and location ties of a particular industry. Broad clusters include all industries in the cluster (Porter 2003, p.563) A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 8
It is important to note that Porter explicitly stress that an industry can become a part of several clusters From a conceptual point of view the issue is solved by a distinction between a narrow and a broad cluster definition The development of the wind energy sector has become an important instrument in regional economic development policy in Denmark (sometimes by change like the initial iti growth in Western Denmark) The crucial problem is to avoid creating new industrial mono structures based on a temporary boom The development of off shore wind parks can have a large potential in this case (including a service cluster) A crucial condition for a success is to create a sustainable basis which can adapt to alterations in the economic environment A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 9
The cluster perspective: p Spinn-off form a mature & well esteblished Offshore Cluster Related to a strong national production chain Regional dispersed in a DK perspective Strong cluster in and European perspective Note: In a way both the mature off shore oil and gas cluster and the emerging off shore wind cluster has features in common with the satellite platform industrial district type of production system sketched by Ann Markusen (1996. pp.304-6). A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 10
Branchen i regioner klynge eller del af klynge? Fra udstyrs leverandør til system leverandør National og international benchmark? En ny klynge? Branchen som del i en regional udviklingsstrategi: A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 11
Mapping clusters in Southern Denmark: Mature clusters (Klyngeudvikling Syddanmark 2009, p. 24) A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 12
Figure 2 Cluster development Economic performance Mature clusters Number of clusters Development of cluster Germinating or budding clusters Potential clusters Cluster initiative time A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 13
The global industry vs. regional and national clustering Home market installed capacity Future trends Market shares for wind-turbines Changes in the value chain Lasting regional employment and skill development A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 14
Figure 2 Installed Wind Turbine Market Shares 2010 (Source: Here quoted from Ekopolitan 2011). A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 15
Figure 3 Global wind power capacity Regional Breakdown (Source: GWEC 2011) A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 16
Figure 4 Turnover per employee in Danish Windmill Industry y( (Index 1999 =100) Source: Vindmølleindustrien 2010. A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 17
Figure 5 Turnover Danish Wind power industry Denmark and global (in bill. ) Source: Vindmølleindustrien 2010 A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 18
Figure 6 Exports of Danish Windmill Industry (% of ftotal t ldanish exports) (Source: Vindmølleindustrien 2010) A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 19
Figure 7 Actual and Possible Positions of Off-shore Windmill Parks, Denmark 2010 Source: Ministry of Environment, here quoted from the newspaper, pp Politiken (2010). A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 20
Figure 9 Geographical distribution of employment in the Danish wind power industry 2009 A: Number of employed in municipality ii B: Share of total private employment Source: Vindmølleindustrien 2011 Source: Vindmølleindustrien 2011 A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 21
Regional Economic impacts Production strongholds (declining employment in non metropolitan regions) System provision, marketing and R&D increasing (relative and absolute importance) Locational impacts: Power production related activities => potential positive impacts in peripheral coastal areas Trends toward specialization and functional diversification A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 22
Job and skill change in DK Wind energy industry (ERSA2011) Figure 5 Job functions in the Danish Windturbine industry ultmo 2008 and 2009 (pct. of employment) 2008 2009 Note: 2009 other includes Service & Maintenance Source: Vindmølleindustrien (2009 & 2010) A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 23
Table 1 Specialization in Wind energy related industries i in Western Denmark (Mean 2006-2009) Plastics Metal Electro Electro eq. Machinery Transport Priv. R&D Sønderborg 0.75 0.86 5.71 8,75 7.06 0.54 0.11 Aabenraa 0.80 1.53 0.04 0,27 0.50 1.86 0.15 Tønder 0.73 3.39 0.15 0,27 0.10 0.61 0.08 Esbjerg 0.79 1.67 0.33 2,63 0.94 1.07 0.03 Varde 2.15 1.47 0.75 0.13 1.03 0.61 0.18 South Jutland total 1.33 1.49 0.80 2.31 1.73 1.11 0.26 Herning 0.77 2.75 0.16 1.19 0.60 0.87 0.00 Ikast-Brande 1.25 0.27 0.00 1.24 3.76 0.83 0.00 Ringkøbing 1.21 2.87 0.84 3.30 4.46 0.59 0.81 Western Jutland total 1.18 1.69 1.57 1.07 2.54 0.69 1.15 Randers 1.56 1.66 0.68 0.21 1.23 0.78 0.72 Aarhus 0.40 0.31 0.93 0.64 0.75 1.02 0.97 Eastern Jutland total tl 1.08 1.00 1.36 0.83 1.02 0.94 0.68 Source: A.P.Cornett Danmarks Statistik (2011) Energi på havet oktober 2011 24
Perspectives I: Industry: The perspectives for the Danish wind turbine industry characterized by fierce competition on markets as well as with regard to geographical llocation. Furthermore, the organization of the value chain and the nature of fthe products are changing toward system or turnkey solutions rather than equipment. Regional: In a spatial setting, the industry has become global with significant impacts for Denmark and in particular the peripheral regions where the industry traditional has their strongholds. A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 25
Perspectives II: Clusterering: The wind power industry is analyzed in geographical context using a cluster or industrial district perspective. Two aspects or types of clusters has been identified; a traditional mature cluster which mainly has to be seen. In a national configuration including production, marketing R& D and all other functions relevant for a industry acting on global markets. In a European perspective the Danish wind power industry as a whole an emerging service and maintenance cluster for off shore wind parks on the Danish coast. The cluster is a classical spin off from an existing oil and gas service cluster, and partly embedded in an existing organization, Offshore Center Denmark. A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 26
Perspectives III: The Danish windmill cluster and gained strengths and a considerable first mover advantage as a result of a proactive energy and industry policy. First, there has been a local market for wind power, not only in Denmark, but also in neighboring countries especially Germany. Second, a well-skilled and highly productive labor force has been present especially in the western part of Denmark due to structural changes in other industries. Third, the Danish environmental and energy policy especially during the 1990ties stimulated the growth of the industry, and provided heavy subsidies for small scale wind power producers. But is this sufficient to cope with new markets and competitors? An alternative for the region? A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 27
Wind Energy Industry in Denmark from Production to System Provider With point of departure in the previous analysis we as a case consider the evolution of Danish wind energy sector Some characteristics of the sector: The Danish wind energy sector has traditionally been located in the Western part of Denmark In recent years the industry structure has changed. There are two main companies Danish Vestas and German Siemens Windpower At the moment Danish based producers still maintains a significant position in the wind turbine segment with a share for Vestas equal to 15 percent A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 28
Paths of Development A.P.Cornett The Danish wind energy sector can be characterized as a national cluster according to the cluster classification of Michael Porter Originally the industry developed in a decentralized pattern serving local costumers (this is especially true for Vestas) The development was supported by generous support schemes for people investing in wind power (through the electricity system) Today wind energy related activities are geographical spread throughout the country R&D, marketing and managerial functions has recently to some extent also moved to rural areas in Western Denmark Energi på havet oktober 2011 29
A Regional Service Clusters? The main problem of the off-shore wind turine sector to maintain a reasonable price of electricity it The final output, electricity is sold on a highly competitive marked under institutional/regulatory and infrastructure constrains In particular the latter is of growing significance when the overall share of wind energy is increasing, national as well as in a trans- European perspective The grid infrastructure and production cost are crucial parameter for the industry The shift toward service is hard to identify in official statistics According to the annual reports from the Danish Windmill industry a weak trend away from traditional production seems to be visible Institutional impacts? A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 30
Uddybning Triple Helix Virksomheder: Hovedfokus samspil mellem regionale virksomheder og branches kernevirksomheder (Vestas Siemens etc.) Uddannelse & Forskning Hvilken rolle kan/bør F&U institutioner varetage for at udvikle sektoren - Uddannelse og efteruddannelse Offentlige sektor: regulering, subsidier og erhvervspolitiske programmer, Klyngeprogram etc. Forventede resultater: Forbedrede erhvervsbetingelser for branchen og den virksomheder Øget gennemsigtighed og kendskab til de relevante rammebetingelser Nye samarbejdsmuligheder udvikling af value chain A.P.Cornett Energi på havet oktober 2011 31
Regional impacts of economic transition: From manufacturing to service and knowledge based development: Long term trends and recent Danish experiences in the Wind Energy industry. (Andreas P. Cornett & Nils Karl Sørensen) Paper for special session 'Regional development, structural changes and services, 51 th Barcelona, Spain 30.8-3.9.2011 Case om vindenergi klyngen: Cornett, A. P. & M. B. Ingstrup (2010): Cluster Development as an Instrument of Regional Business development Policy: Concepts and Danish Reality, pp. 43-61 in Brown, Kerry, John Burgess, Marion Festing & Susanne Royer (Eds.) Value Adding Webs and Clusters - Concepts and Cases, Rainer Hampp Verlag München, Mering, Germany, 2010. Regional economic aspects of the Danish Windmill Cluster: The case of the emerging off shore wind energy cluster on the west coast of Jutland Paper for the special session 'Cluster development and regional transformation in an economic perspective',14th Uddevalla Symposium June 16-18, 2011 in Bergamo, Italy. (Andreas P. Cornett & Nils Karl Sørensen) Artikel CESFO årbogen for 2010.. Tak for jeres opmærksomhed.. spørgsmål? 32 A.P.Cornett