March 2015 MEGATRENDS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
Cautionary Statement The following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations, operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information. Use of non-gaap financial information This presentation may include non-gaap financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-gaap measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure on our website at www.conocophillips.com/nongaap. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website. 2
155 Years of Technical Innovation Punctuated by Four Megatrends Resources Discovered Annually High Discovered to Date: 6 to 8 Trillion BOE Produced 1859 to 2014: 2 Trillion BOE? Shallow Water Deep Water Low 1859 1909 1959 2009 2059 First Modern Oil Well * Application of Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (Onshore Conventional) Offshore Exploration & Production Unconventional Reservoirs 3 * This megatrend is ultimately responsible for all produced hydrocarbons except for a small amount recovered via mining
Birth of Oil Industry via Application of (Proven) Drilling Technology 1859 Drake Well, Pennsylvania Application of Proven Technology Oil Creek Pennsylvania Name Predates Drilling of Drake Well Seeps and Eternal Flames Early Prospecting Tools in U.S. 4
Application of Science & Engineering to Finding & Producing Hydrocarbons Anticlinal Theory Seismic Surveying Reservoir Management Well Logs 1913 1917 1930 5
The Oil Industry Moves Offshore A New and Unexplored Geography Circa Late 1940s / early 1950s State-of-the-art seismic vessel State-of-the-art drilling rig Ekofisk Field, Offshore Norway, 1977 State-of-the-art production platform 6
Unconventional Reservoirs A Megatrend "Hidden in Plain Sight" A Previously Ignored Drilling Target Traditional Target A "New Tool" from Two Old Technologies Hydraulic Fracturing Operations First Utilized in 1949 in America Mature, organicrich source rocks New Target Horizontal Drilling Large-Scale Use by 1980 s Cartoon cross-section showing elements of a petroleum system 7
A Megatrend Resulting in a Renaissance of Enormous Scale 70 U.S. Natural Gas Production (billions of cubic feet per day) 10 U.S. Oil Production (million barrels per day) 60 50 2005 Shale Unconventional Gas 8 6 40 30 Non-Shale Conventional Gas 4 Conventional Decline Curve 20 2 2013 2005 1997 1989 1981 1973 1965 1957 1949 2012 2009 2006 2003 2000 8 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Companies 1 U.S. Unconventional Reservoirs > 4 MMBOPD > 25 BCFGPD ExxonMobil Shell CVX, BP, Total ConocoPhillips 1 Non-government controlled companies only Daily Production (MMBOE) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Countries U.S.A. Russia Saudi Arabia Canada, Iran, China Qatar, UAE Mexico, Norway, Kuwait, Iraq Ven., Alg., Nigeria 9 Sources: U.S. Unconventional Reservoirs = U.S. EIA; Countries = 2014 BP World Energy Statistics; Companies = Annual Reports All production volumes are 2013 annual averages, except U.S. unconventional reservoirs number, which is 2014 average
America s "Big Four" Unconventional Reservoir Fields Bakken 7-62 BBO 10 Numbers on map are estimates of ultimately recoverable resources (EUR); they were compiled from various government, industry and internal reports
Unconventional Reservoir Cost-of-Supply is Surprisingly Low Average Wellhead Oil Breakeven Price ($/BBL) Marcellus Production Growth 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 16 12 8 4 Production (BCFPD) 30 25 Independent Companies Integrated Companies Gas Price ($ per MCF) 0 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 11 Oil Cost-Of-Supply Source = Rystad North American Shale Report 4Q 2013. Marcellus Production and U.S. Gas Price = EIA
The Greatest Energy Success Story of the 21 st Century (thus far) Resources Discovered Annually High? Shallow Water Deep Water Low 1859 1909 1959 2009 2059 First Modern Oil Well * Application of Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering (Onshore Conventional) Offshore Exploration & Production Unconventional Reservoirs 12 * This megatrend is ultimately responsible for all produced hydrocarbons except for a small amount recovered via mining
Benefits From Unconventional Reservoirs Development ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC GROWTH ENERGY SECURITY 13
21 st Century Environmental Challenges During Past Half Century 300% Percent Change since 1965 Population has increased 115% Energy Consumption Energy use increased 238% CO 2 emissions are up 199% Atmospheric CO 2 up 24% Water use has increased 200% 100% 0% CO 2 Emissions Population Atmospheric CO 2 Land use has increased -100% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 14 Population Data from: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014; Atmospheric CO 2 from: NOAA 2014 Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions Data from: 2014 BP Statistical Review of World Energy
1965 1977 1989 2001 2013 2025 Unconventional Gas Production is Helping Reduce CO 2 Emissions 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 U.S. CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes per Annum) 2005 U.S. 2025 27% Reduction Target CO 2 Emissions Associated with Electricity Generation Energy Source Pounds of CO 2 per MWh of Power Biomass 2,988 Coal 2,249 Oil 1,672 Natural Gas 1,135 3 000 Nuclear & Some Renewables 0 15 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014; 2025 target as per President Obama Source: California State Polytechnic University
500 400 Hydraulic Fracturing is Helping Reduce U.S. Water Utilization Use of Water in the United States Billion Gallons per Day 2005 1 600 1 400 1 200 Water Use in Electricity Generation Gallons per MWh Steam Cycle* Other** Fuel Production 300 1 000 800 200 600 100 400 200 0 0 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 Other Irrigation Electricity Generation Natural Gas Coal Thermal Nuclear Solar Trough Geothermal 16 Water Use Source = USGS Circular 1405; Water Intensity Source = U.S. DOE, "Energy Demands on Water Resources", Dec. 2006 * Assumes closed loop cooling tower; **"Other" includes water for other process uses such as emissions treatment, facilities.
Public Concerns and Areas for Continued Improvement Water Usage and Safeguards Triggered Seismicity Minimizing Community Impacts Greenhouse Gas Emissions West Texas Water Recycling Project Rigging Up Microseismic Monitoring Well Horizontal Wells (going in & out of page) Cross Section View 17
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Development of Unconventional Reservoirs Enhances Energy Security 35 30 U.S. Net Energy Imports Quadrillion BTUs 2005 2012 Russia Gas Exports to Europe 25 20 15 10 2012 Russia Oil Exports to Europe (million barrels per day) 5 0 18 Source = U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Megatrend and Unconventional Reservoir Take Away Messages Megatrends crucial for supplying volume of hydrocarbons world needs A renaissance of enormous scale is underway in America U.S. oil and natural gas production growing rapidly Significant environmental, energy security and economic benefits Greatest energy success story of the 21 st century (this far) 19
March 2015 MEGATRENDS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY