Fresh Ideas, New Frontiers Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability at Universität Hamburg
Preface Core Issues and Research Program 2020 Fresh Ideas, New Frontiers Thinking outside the box to arrive at new insights this is one of the guiding principles of the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN). The reason: many questions raised by research concerning the climate, Earth and our environment cannot be addressed by a single discipline. The CEN unites researchers from various fields such as meteorology, oceanography, economics and sociology. Only together can we assess how our society will work and do business in the future, and what that will mean e. g. for our climate. This integrative approach also sparks new synergies: how can both large, global currents and the smallest turbulences in the ocean and atmosphere be reflected in the same model? At the CEN, oceanographers collaborate with meteorologists to solve this problem. Our environment is not only a nature reserve and source of arable land. Recently, it has also taken on importance as an energy landscape. A diverse group of experts is called for in order to evaluate the extent to which economics, social justice, environmental and climate protection can be reconciled. The CEN brings together oceanography, meteorology, geophysics, marine biology, geology, soil science, biogeochemistry, geography, economics and sociology. Working in teams, the scientists identify overarching research questions, create interdisciplinary work packages, and jointly apply for suitable research funds. How do the ocean, atmosphere, biosphere and geosphere influence one another? How has our earth system changed, and what developments are to be expected for the future? How do environmental risks and climate change affect marine and terrestrial ecosystems? What societal reactions should we expect? How will our growing appetite for energy, intensive and non-intensive resource use shape our society and environment? The CEN has selected the following core issues for its research program through 2020: Climate Change and Variability Land and vegetation, ocean and atmosphere are linked in our climate system, and the water, energy and carbon cycles are closely intertwined. With the help of computational models, observations and data analyses, CEN teams monitor the variability of and changes in the system, develop and test forecasting methods. This involves not only global phenomena, but also their regional manifestations. Key regions include the Arctic and Northern Africa. There is also the human factor to bear in mind: How are business, politics and society responding to climate change and its repercussions? What changes will be necessary, and which strategies to cut greenhouse emissions are sensible, efficient and realistic? Involved: Economics, Fisheries Science, Geography, Geology, Geophysics, Hydrobiology, Meteorology, Oceanography, Sociology, Soil Science and Sustainability Research based on findings from the Cluster of Excellence CliSAP Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Flows in the atmosphere and the ocean transport not only energy and momentum, but also water vapor as well as dissolved gases and carbon. And often very small-scale phenomena down to mere centimeters can shape the dynamics of global processes. This insight is important for coupled ocean-atmosphere models, e. g. in attempting to predict future changes in circulation patterns, water vapor or carbon transport. The goal is to arrive at a better theoretical understanding of the underlying dynamics and at more realistic simulations of these processes with the help of parameterizations and of mathematical and numerical models, which will enable us to make more reliable climate prognoses. Involved: Fisheries Science, Geophysics, Hydrobiology, Meteorology, Numerical Mathematics and Oceanography 2 Fresh Ideas, New Frontiers 3
Core Issues Ocean Circulation and Sea Level Change Changes in sea level are one of the central problems caused by climate change, as they hold far-reaching consequences for the safety of the population groups affected. At the same time, here we see a number of interconnected factors the global, regional and local developments are not all the same. In some areas, the sea level could even drop slightly. Of particular interest are the interactions between sea, land and ice. As such, how ice masses in the Antarctic will develop remains an unknown quantity and is largely dependent on the extent to which ocean circulation as well as heat and energy transport will change. Involved: Economics, Geography, Geology, Geophysics, Meteorology, Oceanography, Sociology and Sustainability Research based on findings from the Cluster of Excellence CliSAP Element Cycling in the Earth System On Earth, biologically relevant elements like carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon are in a state of constant circulation. As the relative levels of their availability shape global biological productivity, these elements also interact with our climate. As a result of climate change and the intensified anthropogenic use of land and the ocean, these cycles could accelerate considerably. The CEN utilizes interdisciplinary approaches to determine how pronounced these effects already are and how they will impact ecosystems and productivity in the future. These approaches combine e. g. in-situ measurements on land, at sea and in the atmosphere, remote sensing, laboratory experiments and numerical modeling. Involved: Biogeochemistry, Fisheries Science, Geology, Geophysics, Hydrobiology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Soil Science Marine Ecosystem Services and Management To ensure sustainable development, economics and environmental protection, the exploitation and use of natural resources must be reconciled. This in turn calls for new systems for evaluating ecosystem services. Sustainable fisheries and protection for marine ecosystems the CEN provides the expertise, forecasting models and infrastructure needed for professional environmental monitoring and assessments. Researchers from economics, the natural and social sciences work on management strategies at the national and EU level. Focus areas: the North Sea and Baltic Sea; use conflicts in coastal protection, fisheries and wind energy. Involved: Economics, Fisheries Science, Geology, Hydrobiology, Oceanography, Sociology and Sustainability Research Emerging Issues Urban Areas Within Global Change More and more people now live in cities in Germany, over 70 percent of the population. By 2030, the global average will likely reach 60 percent. In this context, global climate change interacts with factors like more densely packed housing, urban green areas, traffic and air pollu tion factors which at the same time shape the climate. These are supplemented by the impacts of sociodemographic change and the accompanying decline and transformation of urban structures. The goal is to provide quantitative analyses that show how urban spaces influence their surrounding climates, how urban and regional climates will develop in the future, and how society can best respond to urbanization. How can renewable energies be used efficiently, and how can focused urban planning help? Involved: Geography, Meteorology and Soil Science Energy Landscapes Climate change has produced a growing demand for renewable solutions and accordingly the need for suitable areas of land and ocean: Cultivating food crops and plants for biofuels, wind turbines, solar and biogas plants it all takes room. How should agricultural land be used in the future? What are the ideal locations for balancing profits, costs and environmental risks? Through regional case studies e. g. on solar parks in Northern Africa, clearing forest areas in Brazil, and use conflicts in Northern Germany, the CEN is exploring new approaches to land use. Here the focus is on ensuring stable supply chains, on protecting nature and climate and on conflicts and potential collaborations between developing and industrialized countries. Involved: Economics, Geography, Geology, Geophysics, Meteorology, Soil Science and Sustainability Research Climate Change and Society The greater the divide between self-declared goals and actual CO 2 reductions, the more heated the social discourse on the right policy grows. What strategies of adaptation and emissions cutting are being developed at the global and national level? Which of them have been successful in which countries or sectors? What courses are politicians considering, and what is the role of science in their decision-making? Can concrete prognoses for the next few decades move the protagonists to take action? If not, how can society cope with the consequences of unchecked global warming? Involved: Economics, Geography, Meteorology, Sociology and Sustainability Research based on findings from the Cluster of Excellence CliSAP Research always needs to include room for innovations and new ideas. New emerging issues are already on the horizon: smaller projects that show potential, interesting inter disciplinary connections, and academic highlights that do not easily fit into any one category. The CEN explores and expands on these issues, which raise questions such as: What geo-risks can be posed by wind parks? How are marine and coastal ecosystems reacting to rising sea levels? How can geo-engineering programs be assessed? And how is global change affecting the diversity of species? 4 Fresh Ideas, New Frontiers 5
Forschung Research Research and Education Closely Linked The CEN s researchers are intensively involved in education at Universität Hamburg, reflecting the close ties between research and education at the CEN from Bachelor and Master programs to doctoral studies. The CEN fosters degree programs in Geography, Geophysics, Geosciences, Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science, Meteorology and Physical Oceano graphy. Providing these programs is an essential part of the multidisciplinary research at CEN. Doctoral candidates are supported by the School of Integrated Climate System Sciences, which also offers an English-language Master of Integrated Climate System Sciences degree program. Infrastructure and Support The CEN s member institutes operate a range of facilities supporting scientific research. These include the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC), which offers a climate database for in-situ and satellite data, a Climate Visualization Laboratory and a special group for model development and data assimilation. Through Universität Hamburg, the CEN is also involved with the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) and makes some of its models available to the international research community. The basement level of the Geomatikum in the Bundesstraße houses the largest boundary layer wind tunnel in Europe. Together with the neighboring Max Planck Institute for Meteorology the CEN also maintains engineering workshops and a library. The CEN Office provides support with securing funding and coordinating major joint projects. The CEN is also home to the Control Station German Research Vessels. On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the German Research Foundation (DFG), it coordinates the journeys of the Meteor, the Merian and the new Sonne for German scientific research as a whole. CliSAP/CEN Office Management, Research Coordination and Outreach Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-4327, Fax: - 4938, cen@uni-hamburg.de www.cen.uni-hamburg.de 6 Fresh Ideas, New Frontiers 7
CEN Members Institute of Soil Science Allende-Platz 2, 20146 Hamburg Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-4041, Fax: 42838-2024 Institute of Geography Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-4963, Fax: 42838-4981 Institute of Geology Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-4999, - 4993, Fax: 42838-5007, - 6347 Institute of Geophysics Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-2973, Fax: 42838-5441 Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science Olbersweg 24 and Große Elbstraße 133, 22767 Hamburg Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-6601, Fax: 42838-6618 Research Group Climate Governance Centre for Globalisation and Governance Welckerstraße 8, 20354 Hamburg Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-3810, Fax: 42838-3545 Institute of Oceanography Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-2605, - 5449, Fax: 42838-7488 Meteorological Institute Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-5078, Fax: 42838-5452 Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg Tel: +49 (0) 40 / 42838-7008, Fax: 42838-7009 Imprint Universität Hamburg Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) Bundesstraße 53 55, 20146 Hamburg Editor: CEN Outreach, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg Design: blum design und kommunikation GmbH, Hamburg Print Office: elbe Print Media Image credits (in direction of reading): UHH/CEN/T. Wasilewski (cover) UHH/CEN/B. Runkle (cover) istockphoto.com/achimhb (cover) istockphoto.com/nierika (cover) UHH/CEN/A. Stein-Schomburg (cover) UHH/CEN/K. Zakšek (cover) UHH/CEN/T. Wasilewski (p. 2) ChrisW/Shotshop.com (p. 3) UHH/CEN/T. Wasilewski (pp. 3+8) Otto/Shotshop.com (p. 4) UHH/CEN/P. Schreiber (p. 4) UHH/CEN/ S. Beddig (p. 4) UHH/CEN/H. Schlünzen (p. 5) UHH/CEN/M. Köhl (p. 5) 3523Studio/Shotshop.com (p. 5) UHH/CEN/HTP Hidde Timmermann Partnerschaft (pp. 6+7) istockphoto.com/wild-places (p. 8)