Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing A Geo-Demographic Analysis of the Vermont Visitor Project Report

Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing A Geo-Demographic Analysis of the Vermont Visitor Project Report Prepared by William E. Baker Data Compilation by William Valliere July 1998

2 Executive Summary A Geo-Demographic Analysis of the Vermont Visitor This project is one of eight scheduled projects in 1998-1999 funded through the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing and conducted by the University of Vermont. The research was designed and analyzed by William Baker from the University of Vermont School of Business Administration in partnership with the School of Natural Resources and Vermont Tourism Data Center. The NPD Group fielded the project in April-June 1998 through its national consumer mail panel. A single question, If you took a trip to or through Vermont anytime in the past year, please x the season(s) in which you visited, was sent to a geo-demographically balanced sample of 225,000 U.S. households. 152,652 screeners were returned a response rate of 68%. The data was compiled by William Valliere from the University of Vermont. The report provides a geo-demographic profile of the Vermont visitor using traditional survey research methods and PRIZM. PRIZM is a geo-demographic lifestyle segmentation system that breaks the U.S. population into 62 lifestyle clusters (and 12 super clusters). These clusters are defined by over 40 geographic, demographic and psychographic factors. More than half of all visitors came from New England and the Middle Atlantic States (New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey). Individuals from rural areas and small towns/cities have the same propensity to visit Vermont as individuals from large and mid-size metropolitan areas. Demographically, Vermont disproportionately attracts affluent, well-educated households. More than 70% of all visitors do not have children under the age of 18 at home. This, however, does not vary significantly from the percentage of households in the general population without children. Slightly less than all visitors live in households whose head is over the age of 45. Again, this is just slightly higher than the U.S. average.

3 Other than geographic proximity to Vermont, the PRIZM analysis revealed that socio-economic status is the single greatest influence on the propensity to visit Vermont. Well-educated, affluent professionals, managers and technicians living in large cities and the suburbs, but also from small towns and rural areas are about 50% more likely to visit Vermont than other households. The PRIZM analysis led to the development of two target markets, Metro-Achievers and Small Town Gentry that comprise almost 40% of all Vermont visitors.

4 METHODOLOGY A national marketing research firm, NPD Group, fielded this research using their geo-demographically balanced consumer mail panel. A single question, If you took a trip to or through Vermont anytime in the past year, please x the season(s) in which you visited, was sent to a geo-demographically balanced sample of 225,000 U.S. households. 152,652 screeners were returned a response rate of 68%. The following report provides a geographic and demographic profile of the Vermont visitor, and a PRIZM profile of the Vermont visitor. PRIZM is a geo-demographic lifestyle segmentation system that breaks the U.S. population into 62 lifestyle clusters (and 12 super clusters).

5 CENSUS REGION Households in New England and the Middle Atlantic States (i.e., New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania) comprise only 20.7% of U.S. households, but they made up 54.7% of visiting households to Vermont. In the winter, they made up 73.3% of all visiting households. Households in New England are 5.6 times more likely to visit Vermont than the average U.S. household; households in the Middle Atlantic States are 1.8 times more likely than the U.S. average to visit Vermont. All other census regions produce a disproportionately low percent of Vermont visitors. CENSUS REGION Census Region U.S. Index Winter Spring Summer Fall New England 4.4 24.8 564 37.05 34.15 30.26 28.56 Middle Atlantic 16.3 29.9 183 36.21 28.11 31.97 26.93 South Atlantic 17.6 13.5 77 10.20 11.44 12.77 11.52 East North Central 18.5 9.8 53 4.77 7.49 8.69 9.92 Pacific 13.2 6.7 51 3.86 5.17 4.09 7.70 West South Central 9.7 5.4 56 3.44 5.40 3.83 5.12 West North Central 8.2 3.5 42 2.17 2.67 2.66 3.75 East south Central 6.2 3.3 53 1.27 3.02 3.14 2.94 Mountain 6.1 3.1 51 1.03 2.56 2.59 3.56

6 MSA PROFILE OF VISITORS Almost half of the visiting households come from metropolitan areas of 1 million or more residents. This, however, is roughly equivalent to U.S. population averages, which means there is no unusual propensity for residents of major U.S. metropolitan areas to visit Vermont relative to residents in smaller cities, towns and rural areas. In fact, given that 62% of residents in the Northeast live in metropolitan areas, a higher rate than the rest of the nation, one may conclude that residents of larger cities have a lower than average propensity to visit Vermont. MSA Population Density U.S. MSA PROFILE OF VISITORS Index Winter Spring Summer Fall More than 2,500,000 24.0 26.0 108 28.0 21.1 23.1 22.8 1,000,000 2,500,000 23.4 20.7 88 19.3 16.6 18.8 19.9 500,000 1,000,000 9.6 12.3 123 11.4 13.3 13.1 13.3 250,000-500,000 10.9 10.3 94 8.7 10.2 10.6 8.4 50,000-249000 9.8 10.3 105 9.8 11.2 11.1 11.8 Non-MSA 22.3 20.5 93 22.9 27.6 23.3 23.9

7 HOUSEHOLD INCOME Higher income households have a higher propensity to visit Vermont than lower income households do, particularly in the winter. Despite the upper income bias, it should be kept in mind that almost 60% of visitors come from households earning less than $50,000. HOUSEHOLD INCOME Household Income U.S. Index Winter Spring Summer Fall Less than $15,000 20.9 17.3 83 13.8 21.4 16.6 16.1 $15,000 - $24,999 16.0 13.2 83 11.7 12.3 12.8 14.6 $25,000 - $34,999 14.7 12.9 88 12.1 13.4 12.9 14.3 $35,000 - $49,999 17.0 16.4 96 15.6 17.8 17.5 16.3 $50,000 - $74,999 17.2 19.3 112 19.0 16.9 19.7 19.6 $75,000 - $99,999 7.8 10.2 131 13.0 8.8 9.9 9.9 $100,000 or more 6.4 10.6 164 14.9 9.5 10.7 9.3

8 EDUCATION Individuals with at least four years of college have a higher than average propensity to visit Vermont, particularly in the winter. As with household income, however, it s important to note that more than 60% of all visitors do not have a college education. EDUCATION Education U.S. Index Winter (Index) Spring (Index) Summer (Index) Fall (Index) < High School 12.2 9.7 80 6.9 12.5 10.4 9.0 High School 35.0 30.3 87 26.1 30.4 30.8 32.2 1-3 Years 24.0 21.1 88 19.9 21.9 19.8 21.6 College College Graduate 18.4 22.9 124 27.6 21.6 21.8 22.1 Post College Graduate 10.5 16.0 152 19.5 13.7 17.2 15.0

9 RACE 90.7% of Vermont visitors are white. This matches the U.S. population profile. RACE Race U.S. Index Winter Spring Summer Fall White 89.9 90.7 101 91.8 89.6 91.1 93.2 Black 5.6 4.7 84 3.2 5.7 4.6 3.0 Asian 1.1 1.6 145 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.6 Other 3.5 3.0 86 3.2 5 2.9 2.3

10 AGE OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD The age profile of Vermont visitors skews slightly older relative to the U.S. population in general. There are differences by season. The winter visitor is relatively more likely to be 34 or younger. The fall visitor is more likely to be 55 or older. U.S. Average AGE OF HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD Overall (age) Overall (Index) Winter Spring Summer Fall Age 18-24 4.3 3.5 81 5.5 4.1 3.2 2.9 25-34 18.9 17.9 95 26.8 21.1 17.2 14.9 35-44 24.3 22.9 94 26.6 23.5 23.9 20.7 45-54 18.0 18.1 101 18.1 17.7 18.9 16.5 55-64 12.6 13.9 110 12.1 12.9 14.3 15.6 65 and older 21.8 23.8 109 10.9 20.7 22.6 29.3

11 PRESENCE OF CHILDREN IN HOUSEHOLD On average, 71.7% of Vermont visitors live in households without children under the age of 18. This is somewhat more than the U.S. population average. Households with children are least likely to visit in the fall. PRESENCE OF CHILDREN IN HOUSEHOLD Presence of Children U.S. Index Winter Spring Summer Fall No children < 18 64.8 71.7 111 66.6 68.9 68.1 76.6 Oldest child 13-17 14.3 12.7 89 13.5 13.7 15.0 10.0 Oldest child 6-12 12.1 9.7 80 11.7 11.3 11.5 8.4 Oldest child < 6 8.7 5.8 67 8.2 6.1 5.4 5.1

12 PRIZM SUPER CLUSTERS PRIZM aggregates several dozen geographic, demographic and psychographic variables to create 12 super lifestyle clusters and 62 specific clusters. The 12 super clusters below are defined primarily by geography (i.e., urban, suburban, town and rural) and socio-economic status (1 high 4 low). The super cluster profile below suggests that socio-economic status is the single greatest influence on propensity to visit Vermont. Well-educated, affluent individuals living in large cities and the suburbs of large cities, but also from small towns and rural areas far from major metropolitan areas all have a higher than average propensity to visit Vermont.

13 PRIZM SUPER CLUSTERS Super Cluster U.S. (Index) Town 1 6.7 11.3 169 Suburban 1 7.2 11.3 157 Large Urban 1 3.5 5.0 141 Rural 1 6.4 8.5 132 Small Urban 1 4.5 5.0 112 Large Urban 2 6.4 6.4 100 Suburban 2 10.3 10.1 99 Town 2 7.6 7.4 97 Small Urban 2 9.5 8.5 90 Town 3 8.8 6.7 76 Large Urban 3 3.4 2.5 76 Suburban 3 6.9 5.1 74 Rural 3 9.6 6.8 71 Small Urban 3 5.4 3.3 61 Rural 2 3.9 2.0 51

14 PRIZM SPECIFIC TARGET MARKETS A study of the 62 specific PRIZM clusters suggests the presence of two dominant target markets for Vermont marketing efforts. These two segments are equal in size. Together, they make up 36.8% of all Vermont visitors. The first target market, Metro Achievers, is made up of the most affluent, most successful PRIZM segments. These people are the movers and shakers in our largest metropolitan areas. They have high incomes, high stress lifestyles and are likely to view Vermont as a welcome relief from their urban grind. The second target market, Small Town Gentry, is made up of well-educated affluent families living in small town and rural areas outside of major metropolitan areas. They are similar to their Metro Achiever brethren in educational background, but they have traded off the high powered, high-income metropolitan lifestyle for less stress and more serenity. One may speculate that Vermont is a symbol of the lifestyle choices that they have made, it conforms to their view of life.

15 PRIZM SPECIFIC TARGET MARKETS Target Markets Super Cluster/ Specific Cluster ( of Visitors) (Index) Small Town Gentry 18.4% 177 God's Country T1 / 15 4.5 180 Big Fish, Small Pond T1 / 16 3.5 149 New Homesteaders T2 / 37 2.8 150 New Eco-topia R1 / 42 2.4 311 Big Sky Families R1 / 41 1.9 186 Country Squires T1 / 14 1.9 235 Greenbelt Families T1 / 17 1.4 133 Metro Achievers 18.4% 154 Winner's Circle S1 / 2 3.3 213 New Empty Nests S2 / 19 3.3 143 Pools & Patios S1 / 4 2.7 183 Kids & Cul-de-Sacs S1 / 5 2.5 118 Executive Suites S1 / 3 2.3 124 Young Literati U1 / 8 1.1 137 Bohemian Mix U1 / 10 1.0 141 Money and Brains U1 / 7.9 139 Urban Gold Coast U1 / 6.8 287 Blue Blood Estates S1 / 1.5 233

16 The Complete 62 Cluster PRIZM PROFILE (Ranked by propensity to visit Vermont) Below is the full 62 cluster PRIZM profile of the Vermont visitor. This profile, along with the two target segment profiles above, can provide a wealth of lifestyle and media consumption information that can be used to plan, develop and target marketing communication programs. We strongly recommend that this information be used to prioritize media markets and choose specific media (e.g., radio formats, TV shows, magazines, etc.), as well as guide any direct marketing efforts. We also recommend that full lifestyle portraits of the two target markets defined above be procured to facilitate creative development, promotion development and the selection of corporate sponsorships.

17 The Complete 62 Cluster PRIZM PROFILE (Ranked by propensity to visit Vermont) Cluster Name U.S. Vermont Cluster Index 42 New Eco-topia.76 2.35 311 6 Urban Gold Coast.28.80 287 14 Country Squires.81 1.91 235 1 Blue Blood Estates.23.54 233 2 Winner's Circle 1.54 3.28 213 41 Big Sky Families 1.05 1.94 186 4 Pools & Patios 1.49 2.73 183 15 God's Country 2.51 4.50 180 37 New Homesteaders 1.89 2.83 150 16 Big Fish, Small Pond 2.37 3.54 149 11 Second City Elite.82 1.21 148 19 New Empty Nests 2.27 3.25 143 10 Bohemian Mix.71 1.01 141 7 Money & Brains.67.93 139 8 Young Literati.79 1.08 137 17 Greenbelt Families 1.02 1.36 133 3 Executive Suites 1.83 2.27 124 5 Kids & Cul-de-Sacs 2.14 2.52 118 13 Gray Power 1.41 1.63 116 29 Old Yankee Rows 1.05 1.20 113 31 Latino America.76.86 113 43 River City, USA 2.33 2.61 112 27 Urban Achievers 2.02 2.24 111 9 American Dreams 1.08 1.18 109 18 Young Influentials 1.15 1.25 109 32 Middleburg Managers 2.21 2.27 103 58 Blue Highways 2.33 2.39 103 52 Golden Ponds 3.06 3.06 100 36 Towns & Gowns 1.04 1.03 100 33 Boomtown Singles.95.93 98

18 22 Blue-Chip Blues 2.14 2.07 96 12 Upward bound 2.27 2.19 96 26 Gray collars 2.47 2.35 95 30 Mid-City Mix 1.69 1.57 93 46 Hispanic Mix.52.48 93 21 Suburban Sprawl 2.37 2.11 89 39 Red, White & Blues 3.92 3.31 84 35 Sunset City Blues 3.14 2.57 82 34 Starter Families 2.15 1.75 81 38 Middle America 1.23.95 77 45 Single City Blues 1.32.96 73 55 Mines & Mills 2.11 1.52 72 47 Inner Cities 1.52 1.09 72 23 Upstarts & Seniors 1.75 1.25 72 59 Rustic Elders 2.38 1.68 70 44 Shotguns & Pickups 2.28 1.59 70 51 Southside City 1.58 1.08 68 56 Agri-Business 1.51.98 65 49 Hometown Retired.81.51 63 20 Boomers & Babies 2.35 1.46 62 53 Rural Industria 2.05 1.27 62 28 Big City Blend.85.51 60 60 Back Country Folks 2.28 1.37 60 40 Military Quarters.55.32 58 48 Smalltown Downtown 1.84 1.05 57 50 Family Scramble 1.16.66 56 62 Hard Scrabble 1.26.70 56 25 Mobility Blues 2.13 1.18 56 24 New Beginnings.53.29 55 54 Norma Rae-ville 1.58.82 52 61 Scrub Pine Flats 1.31.67 51 57 Grain Belt 2.40 1.00 42 Total 100 100.00