Market Briefing: Commodity Prices February 9, 2016 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Commodity Price Indexes 1-2 Energy 3-4 Basic Metals 5-7 Lumber 8 Precious Metals 9-10 Agriculture 11-12 Misc: CRB Index 13-14 Misc: Energy 15-16 Misc: Agriculture 17 Misc: Precious Metals 18 Misc: Grains 19-20 February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
Figure 1. Commodity Price Indexes CRB SPOT COMMODITY PRICE INDEX: ALL COMMODITIES* (1967=) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 * Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter, soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 2. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 1 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
Commodity Price Indexes 1 10 Figure 3. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=) 1 10 9 9 8 8 6 Raw Industrials (422.7) 6 Metals Component (581.8) 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 675 Figure 4. COMMODITY PRICES (1967=) 675 575 575 475 CRB Raw Industrials Price Index CRB Futures Price Index 475 375 375 275 275 175 175 75 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 75 Page 2 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
Energy 160 140 Figure 5. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) Price (33.12) 160 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 40 30 20 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 40 30 20 10 * Nearby futures price. 4.5 Figure 6. GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon) 4.5 3.9 Price (0.90) 3.9 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.5.9.9.3 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017.3 -day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 3 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
4.6 4.2 Figure 7. HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per gallon) Energy 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.0 Price (0.97) 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.0.6.2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1.0.6.2 -day moving average * Nearby contract. 17 15 Figure 8. NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per MMBTU) 17 15 13 13 11 Price (2.10) 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 1 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 3 1 -day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 4 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
1 Figure 9. Basic Metals CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (daily, 1967=) 1 1 1 900 900 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Figure 10. COPPER FUTURES PRICE* (cents per pound) Price (203.85) 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average * Nearby futures contract. Page 5 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
225 Figure 11. LEAD, RN NA SOLDER CASH PRICE (cents per pound) Basic Metals 225 175 Price (111.93) 175 125 125 75 75 25 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average 25 0 4 Figure 12. STAINLESS STEEL SCRAP CASH PRICE (dollars per gr. ton) 0 4 0 3 Price (1560.00) 0 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average 0 Page 6 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
2 Figure 13. TIN CASH PRICE (cents per pound) Basic Metals 2 0 Price (969.95) 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average 0 230 210 Figure 14. ZINC CASH PRICE (cents per pound) 230 210 190 170 Price (85.70) 190 170 130 130 110 110 90 70 90 70 30 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average 30 Page 7 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
525 475 Figure 15. RANDOM LENGTH LUMBER FUTURES PRICE* ($/0 board ft) Lumber 525 475 425 425 375 Price (.70) 375 325 325 275 225 275 225 175 175 125 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 125 -day moving average * Nearby contract. Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Page 8 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
Precious Metals 1975 1 Figure 16. GOLD CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce) D A 1975 1 1625 1625 1 Price (1191.00) 1 1275 1 1275 1 925 925 575 575 225 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japan implemented "Abenomics" monetary policy. Figure 17. SILVER CASH PRICE (dollars per troy ounce) Price (15.44) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average 225 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 Page 9 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
2 2 Figure 18. PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) Precious Metals 2 2 0 Price (937.70) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 -day moving average * Nearby contract. 0 Figure 19. PALLADIUM CASH PRICE ($/troy oz) 0 Price (522.00) 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average 0 Page 10 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
19 1 Figure 20. SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Agriculture 19 1 1 1 Price (863.25) 1 1 1 1 9 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average * Nearby contract. 8 Figure 21. CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 8 6 Price (361.00) 6 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 11 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
1 1 1 1 0 900 Figure 22. WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Agriculture Price (457.) 1 1 1 1 0 900 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average * Nearby contract. 2.5 Figure 23. COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound) 2.5 2.0 2.0 Price (0.59) 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0.5.5.0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017.0 -day moving average * Nearby contract. Page 12 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
6 Figure 24. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=) Misc: CRB Index 6 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Figure 25. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=, ratio scale) 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 13 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
1 1 10 9 8 Figure 26. CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS* (1967=, ratio scale) Misc: CRB Index 1 1 10 9 8 6 6 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure 27. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=, ratio scale) 0 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 * Weekly from 1951 to 1981, daily thereafter. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 14 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
140 130 120 110 90 80 70 60 Figure 28. BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel) Misc: Energy 140 130 120 110 90 80 70 60 40 30 20 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 40 30 20 10 * Nearby futures price. Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics. 160 Figure 29. COMMODITY PRICES 160 140 140 120 120 80 80 60 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 60 40 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) 40 20 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20 * Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 15 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0.8 Figure 30. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS FUTURES PRICES* (dollars per gallon) Misc: Energy Heating Oil (0.97) Gasoline (0.90) 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0.8 * Nearby contract. 177 152 127 102 77 52 Figure 31. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, ratio scale) 177 152 127 102 77 52 27 Jan 27 2 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 * Ratio scale. Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page 16 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
8 6 Figure 32. CORN FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) Misc: Agriculture 8 6 19 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 0 900 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 WHEAT FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 COTTON FUTURES PRICE* ($/pound) 19 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 0 900 0 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average * Nearby contract, closing price. 0 Page 17 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
1975 1 1625 1 1275 1 925 575 225 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 Figure 33. GOLD FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce) 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE ($/troy oz) Misc: Precious Metals 1975 1 1625 1 1275 1 925 575 225 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -day moving average * Nearby contract. 0 Page 18 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
Figure 34. S&P GSCI GRAIN INDEX (January 5, 1970=) Misc: Grains 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 6 Figure 35. S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX (December 31, 1969=) 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 6 Page 19 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
0 9 900 8 6 Figure 36. S&P GSCI WHEAT INDEX (December 31, 1969=) 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Misc: Grains 0 9 900 8 6 6 Figure 37. S&P GSCI CORN INDEX (December 31 1969=) 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. 6 Page 20 / February 9, 2016 / Commodity Prices www.
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