Bandwidth demand forecasting (for TR section 4.2.2) Ed Harstead & Randy Sharpe, members of Fixed Networks CTO, Alcatel-Lucent Ottawa IEEE 802.3 NGEPON Interim meeting 8 September 2014 1
Residential aggregate bandwidth demand forecast 100000 99%-ile aggregated demand: "heavy" scenario, 100% unicast video Aggregated demand (Mb/s) 10000 1000 512 subscribers 256 subscribers 128 subscribers 64 subscribers 32 subscribers 16 subscribers 8 subscribers 100 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 For PON network dimensioning, add bandwidth headroom above these numbers, equivalent to the maximum service level offered Why: subscribers will need to pass a speed test at peak hour traffic 2
Aggregate bandwidth demand model Peak hour sustained and burst bandwidth demands are modeled independently. Aggregated demand (Mb/s) 100000 10000 1000 99%-ile aggregated demand: "heavy" scenario, 100% unicast video 100 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 512 subscribers 256 subscribers 128 subscribers 64 subscribers 32 subscribers 16 subscribers 8 subscribers 1. Sustained bandwidth demand component: Video traffic is modeling using Monte Carlo techniques. Other sustained demand (e.g. voice) is neglected All of managed linear pay-tv, managed VoD and OTT Internet video (e.g. Netflix, YouTube) are included No multicasting all video (managed and OTT) is unicasted in-band: worst case scenario 2. Burst bandwidth demand component per subscriber averages, plus maximum burst demand that a single subscriber can generate More detail on inputs in the backup slides Manuscript has recently been submitted to IEEE Communications Magazine 3
Maximum service level that can be offered Equivalent to headroom left over after peak hour traffic is subtracted out: 10000 Maximum service level offering Bandwidth (Mb/s) 1000 100 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 WDM PON (10 Gb/s/λ) 10G EPON (32 subscribers) GPON (32 subscribers) WDM PON (1 Gb/s/λ) Based on methodology in: E. Harstead, R. Sharpe, Future Fiber-To-The-Home bandwidth demands favor Time Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Networks, IEEE Communications Mag., Nov. 2012. Notes on WDM PON: WDM PON @1 Gb/s/λ loses to GPON over next 10 years. WDM PON must support 10 Gb/s/λ just to beat (barely) today s 10G EPON 4
Input for section 4.3: Bit Rate Trends Question: Is this section about bandwidth offered or bandwidth demanded? Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth states that offered premium connection speeds to U.S. users has grown 50% YoY. 1 Gb/s GPON 2011 (EPB, ZON, HKBB) From Jakob Nielsen http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/ Nielsen s Law does not say anything about: bandwidth demand offered speeds on fiber networks (off by one order of magnitude) Nielsen s Law ignores the bandwidth carrying managed TV service (e.g. video QAMs) 5
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Video streams transported: heavy scenario 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Streams/sub probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability distribution of number of streams per subscriber Average (λ) =1.8 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Video resolution probability SD 720p60 HD 1080p60 HD 2160p60 ("4k") 4320p120 ("8k") Stream resolution probability distribution forecast 3D content: 7.5% of HD streams 7
Video streams transported: moderate scenario 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Streams/sub probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Probability distribution of number of streams per subscriber Average (λ) =1.2 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Video resolution probability SD 720p60 HD 1080p60 HD 2160p60 ("4k") 4320p120 ("8k") Stream resolution probability distribution forecast 3D content: 5% of HD streams 8
Residential aggregate bandwidth demand forecast Moderate scenario 10000 99%-ile aggregated demand: "moderate" scenario, 100% unicast video Aggregated demand (Mb/s) 1000 100 512 subscribers 256 subscribers 128 subscribers 64 subscribers 32 subscribers 16 subscribers 8 subscribers 10 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 No headroom included 9
Encoded video bit rate forecasts 60 50 Encoded bit rate (Mbps) 40 30 20 10 4320p120 ("8k") 2160p60 ("4k") 1080p60 HD 720p60 HD SD 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Chart forecasts nominal bit rates for good quality video HD and UHD bit rates are multiplied by 1.275 quality factor for higher quality (heavy scenario) 0.85 quality factor for higher bandwidth efficiency (moderate scenario) 3D content: 1.4x higher bit rate than 2D 10
Burst traffic demand component Cox reported an average of 400 kb/s of downstream DOCSIS traffic per subscriber during peak hour in 2014[1]. This is consistent with private data from other operators. Assume that to first order it is all Internet traffic (neglect managed VoD) Based on Sandvine measurements[2] 36% of that traffic is bursty: 144 kb/s average peak hour bursty traffic per subscriber on a DOCSIS network. Traffic could be higher on fiber networks: multiply by 1.5x: 216 kb/s per subscriber We grow this number by 21% YoY based on inputs from the Cisco VNI[3] and Pyramid[4] and multiplying by 1.5x [1] J. Finkelstein, A. Bernstein, S. Parikh, SDN and NFV for Cable Networks, 2014 Spring Technical Forum (NCTA, SCTE and CableLabs), Los Angeles, CA. [2] Sandvine, Global Internet Phenomena Report: 1H 2014, https://www.sandvine.com/trends/global-internet-phenomena/ [3] Cisco, Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2012 2017, http://www.cisco.com/en/us/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-481360.pdf, May 2013. [4] Pyramid Research, Western Europe Fixed Forecast Pack 2Q2013 and North America Fixed Forecast Pack, 2Q2013, June 2013. 11
Streaming video bandwidth demand, single subscriber: upper bound 250 Assumes no significant impact of 3D video Bandwidth demand (Mb/s) 200 150 100 50 15% YoY upper bound 4320p120 2160p60 1080p60 720p60 SD 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Based on methodology in: E. Harstead, R. Sharpe, Future Fiber-To-The-Home bandwidth demands favor Time Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Networks, IEEE Communications Mag., Nov. 2012. 12
Bandwidth demand: Internet traffic forecasts? North America Consumer Internet Traffic Total Traffic (Cisco VNI) (PB/month) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Traffic per subscriber (kb/s) Total traf f ic Traf f ic per subscriber Internet video is the driver for growth But subscriber traffic is still measured in 100s of kb/s! Traffic forecast data from Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2013 Subscriber forecast data from Pyramid Research. Fixed Forecast Pack, 2013 Internet traffic forecasts miss IPTV, so underestimate access network demand 13
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