Towards Next generation Access Networks in the UK

Transcription

1 Towards Next generation Access Networks in the UK Michael Robertson CIP Technologies, Adastral Park, Martlesham Heath, IPSWICH, IP5 3RE Website:

2 Outline Demands Issues affecting Next generation Broadband Technologies What is happening in other countries Is the UK different? Outlook Conclusions

3 New Applications bandwidth hungry US internet traffic increased by ~ x 500 between 1996 and 2006 BBC iplayer Between January and May daily usage from 0.36M to 0.7M YouTube In US % of internet traffic was You-Tube Breakthrough is a result of video applications

4 Bandwidth v. delays Time to transmit 100 days 10 days 1 day 8 hours 1 hour 10 min 1min 10 sec 1 sec 200ms Postal Service Modem 56kb/s ADSL Up 0.5Mb/s ADSL down 2Mb/s FTTC (VDSL Up) 3MB/s FTTP 100Mb/s cust port CD FTTP 1Gb/s cust ports DVD HDTV } } } ,000 10, ,000 File size (Mbytes) Physical transport faster! Delay a major barrier Customers get impatient Customers accept delay Instantaneous Interactive video and voice require sub-200ms delay Streamed one way video can be in range of customers accepts delay Reference: D Payne, World bandwidth growth over the next decade is it viable? CIP white paper

5 Bandwidth growth scenarios 10,000,000 Peak traffic - World 9,000,000 Middle Scenario - PeakTraffic Gb/s 8,000,000 Pessimistic Scenario - PeakTraffic Gb/s 7,000,000 Optimistic Scenario - PeakTraffic Gb/s 6,000,000 Traffic Gb/s 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Reference: D Payne, World bandwidth growth over the next decade is it viable? CIP white paper

6 The Telecoms Industry Dilemma Global peak bandwidth Tb/s Global peak bandwidth (core) Tb/s relative revenue costs Time / years Drives need for Capex reduction - more-for-less Opex reduction - reduced footprint - lower power consumption - fewer truck rolls Time / years

7 Requirement Next Generation Access Network Is this happening? Why not? Uncertainty of Technical approach Business model Regulation Government has set up Caio review Report due any day now

8 Problems Business model is flawed Customer perception that information is free Bit transport is free Perception amongst the public that the future of broadband is the wireless part ( WiFi or 3G) Little appreciation of either the physical and economic limitations or the hidden wireline infrastructure needed to support it

9 Perception of value Customer perception Actual costs Application Service Infrastructure Who is going to invest in new infrastructure?

10 Business model The 2 pictures can be reconciled Different risk and return profiles Category Risk Cost Timescale Application High Low Short Service Medium Medium Medium Infrastructure Low High Long

11 Different roles Different types of business Vertical integration doesn t make sense You don t have 3 water pipes or gas pipes coming to your house! Cable Co Copper Co Fibre Co

12 Competition OFCOM exists to maintain competition But what sort of competition ie at what level? Given the near infinite capacity of fibre, how many fibres do we need? How many service providers? How many applications? Confused picture Because the business model is confused Fibre is not like copper

13 Result Because of confusion over business model Easy option Wait until the technology better established BUT Can UK businesses afford to be left behind

14 Solution Infrastructure has highest costs and infinite bandwidth Treat as a utility Multiple service providers can use it (even at the same time) Competition at the service provider level

15 Technology Endpoint is known Universal view that FTTH with wireless helping out is solution How best to get there? Range of options from ADSL to FTTH

16 ADSL Electronic equipment in telephone exchanges Bandwidth distance product limited 24MBit/s and 1km 6Mbit/s and 3km 1Mbit/s and 6km

17 VDSL Electronics placed in street cabinets Cost Space Energy consumption (powering and thermal load) (x100 that of FTTH) Maintenance Other issues:, Vandalism, battery theft, safety concerns (e.g recent battery fires in US) Bandwidth less of an issue 50Mbit/s and 300m 20Mbit/s and 1km

18 VDSL Not on the path to FTTH More like a cul-de-sac Investment in cabinets irrelevant to FTTH High bandwidth squeezed out of copper at the expense of heavy power consumption

19 Cable TV solution (DOCSIS 3.0) Virgin Media roll-out plans Similar to VDSL Fibre to street cabinet Coax to the home Reach 1-2km, 1.25Gbit/s shared capacity guaranteed 400Mbit/s to 10Mbit/s depending on architecture

20 Current Technology Limitations of reach and bandwidth Heavy power consumption Security Safety Not futureproof

21 FTTH Options (1) Point-to-Point Central Office Street Cabinet Advantages -Bandwidth not contended -Simple optics Disadvantages -Large fibre count cables (more duct space) -Large volume of equipment in CO Widely used in community based schemes in Scandinavia and Holland

22 FTTH Options (2) Passive optical Network ( PON) Advantages Central office Time multiplexing protocol enables: -Reduced fibre count cables -Sharing of central office equipment Street Cabinet containing optical splitters Disadvantages -Contended bandwidth -Optics and electronics more complex -Shared media perceived to be less secure PON architectures generally preferred by incumbent network operators: several flavours available e.g BPON, EPON, GPON

23 FTTH options (3) WDM-PON Central office Street Cabinet contains wavelength splitter Advantages Wavelength multiplexing enables: -low fibre count cables -virtual point-to-point (i.e no BW contention) Disadvantage -technology availability (low cost WDM components) WDM-PON is at a trial stage in Korea (estimated 100,000 users). Significant recent increase in worldwide interest.

24 Network Simplification Service node WDM Integrated access & backhaul/metro Non-FTTP Customers Big business customer long PON Nx 2.5 or 10 Gbit/s Cabinet FTTP Customers TDM combined with WDM copper MSAN 256x Split Reach of ~100 km PIEMAN 24 CIP Commercial Confidential

25 Network research vision Today Logical Nodes Today ~80,000 PCPs in the Access Network ~100,000 Remote Concs, DSLAMS & Data Muxes ~ Voice Switches and Data Cross Connects ~170 Core Switches (DMSU / NGS) Data Centre International Networks Internet Peering End Customer 21C Logical Nodes Future Begin Fibre to the PCP ~13,500 Multi- Service Access Nodes ~100 Metro Nodes ~10 Core Nodes Aggregation Service Edge Core ~ 5 inodes Intelligence Logical Nodes Long reach Vision End Customer ~30k ~100 Metro Nodes Optical core

26 Merge on storyboard 6 Potential OPEX Benefits Based on Ipswich Exchange serving ~15,000 customers Today 21C MSAN Long Reach PON 900 racks 20 racks 1 rack 826 kw kw 100W

27 FTTH Position internationally

28 Examples In Holland, 3 tier business model recognised Infrastructure companies owned by municipalities installing fibre Multiple service providers competing Happy customers! Free FTTH trial achieved 93% take up When cost of 60/month introduced, take up remained at 85%

29 Example of multiple service termination in use in Holland Picture courtesy of Genexis

30 Why is UK behind? Partly because of higher penetration of satellite broadcasting in UK compared to other OECD countries Reduces multi-channel revenues available to FTTH installers Partly because of incumbent network operators fear that if they were to invest, OFCOM would require them to give uneconomic access to competitors to the new network whilst at the same time bearing high costs maintaining the legacy copper network. In a sense OFCOM is perceived to be holding back progress But BT announced last month a 1.5Bn plan for some FTTC (with VDSL)

31 Benefits to UK of FTTH New network design activities If done soon technology leadership possible Manufacturing of high added value items Creation of new applications and services YouTube needed broadband to exist (imagine using dial-up!) UK leads the world in games industry and creative media but unlikely to keep a lead if technology to support a home user base is not available

32 Benefits 43 days/year wasted commuting Price of oil never higher High bandwidth availability will at last lead to useful teleconferencing Successful ICT industry correlates with high GDP

33 Benefits Early internet was universal Now with new broadband only those with very fast access will have the whole range of services Haves and have-nots Network computing enabled dumb terminals - no need for complex electronics in every home

34 Social benefits Now seeing the user created content eg YouTube, MySpace not passive consumption like TV Important for minority interests Important for education

35 Additional benefits Impact of rising commodity prices For new build FTTH is now cheaper than copper Increased copper thefts causing increased concerns to existing infrastructure owners. Fibre cable is lower cost than copper cable and has low scrap value.

36 Technology - conclusion Main part is installing fibre ie civil engineering Fibre has effectively infinite bandwidth and is future-proof What is put on the end can be decided later Excellent opportunity for building trade during the current economic downturn

37 Strategic nature of ICT ICT underpins all industries even financial How can UK expect to be world-class without world-class ICT

38 Conclusions Video applications require NGA Fibre to the home is the end point Issues on how to get there Business model needs to be fixed Value of infrastructure needs to be recognised Companies are probably not vertically integrated Clarity of UK regulation is vital BT recently announced 1.5Bn investment in FTTC subject to conditions

39 Forthcoming meeting Next Generation Optical Access Briefing 19 th September IoP, London

40 Acknowledgements David Smith and other colleagues at CIP Technologies Russell Davey, BT EU 6 th Framework project PIEMAN