Estimating Post-Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction Requirements J. Roberto Jovel Team Leader India PDNA Project
Contents of Presentation 1. The effects and impacts of disasters 2. Estimation of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction requirements 3. Analysis of current practices for disaster assessment in India 4. The India PDNA Project 5. A composite index for disaster impact on quality of life and to monitor post-disaster recovery
Disaster Effects and Impacts When disasters occur, they have negative effects that include Destruction of physical, durable assets Disruption in the production flows of goods and services These effects have consequences or impacts at Sectors of social and economic activity Macro-economic and macro-social levels Personal or household levels Disaster effects and impacts have a bearing on the entire affected society, economy and the environment, and must be attended to in a comprehensive manner in order to return to normal conditions
Disaster Effects and Impacts Typical Effects In all sectors of activity: Destruction of physical assets Disruption in the production of goods and services In persons and households: Death, injuries, disease Disruption of access to basic services and livelihoods On the environment Destruction of natural and built assets Decline in environmental services Typical Impacts* Macro-economic level Slowdown of economic growth External and fiscal sector imbalances Inflation Personal or household level Decline in personal income Increase in costs of living Decline in quality of life Macro-social level Delays in achieving MDGs in health, education, social protection, etc. (* Impacts are the consequences of effects)
Estimation of Post-Disaster Needs for Recovery and Reconstruction A post-disaster recovery program must enable the overcoming of disaster impacts by all affected sectors of the society and economy, and include activities to restore socio-economic development conditions and to rebuild or replace all destroyed physical assets Recovery requires reaching the pre-disaster levels* of: Production of goods and services in all affected sectors Macro-economic performance Access to basic services and quality of life for individual persons and families, including personal and household income To estimate post-disaster recovery and reconstruction needs, a comprehensive, evidence-based, quantitative assessment of disaster effects and impacts is essential for all affected sectors and at all levels of dis-aggregation (* Note that improving living conditions above pre-disaster levels are part of normal socio-economic development, and not part of post-disaster recovery, and should be dealt with separately)
Limitations on scope of current postdisaster assessments in India The Disaster Response Fund (DRF) provides for assistance to be given to affected population after disasters Its application has proven to be effective in recent years to estimate response assistance requirements, as affected persons receive them within a period of 45 days after the event However, the scope of these assessments do not provide the full information required for defining overall recovery and reconstruction needs Existing limitations: The total costs of disasters to India s society and economy are underestimated Only the amounts to be provided by the Government as relief response are estimated Not all sectors of social and economic activity are included in the assessment of damage and production losses (Industry, commerce, mining and commercial agriculture are not included) Disaster impact on social conditions and at personal or household level is not estimated Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction needs are not systematically estimated
Limitations on scope of current postdisaster assessments in India.. Other limitations The amount of assistance provided to families with destroyed housing units is insufficient to cover full reconstruction costs The amount of agriculture inputs provided to farmers is insufficient to cover the cost of planting the next crop, and no assistance is given to farmers that lose less than 50% of the crop, nor to farmers producing commercial crops No estimations are made of the losses in revenues sustained by water and electricity service providers Therefore The macro-economic and macrosocial impact of disasters is not estimated Recovery of production across sectors is not fully covered Recovery of personal and household quality of life (including personal income) is not attended to, and in many cases persons and families fall below poverty level Reconstruction of housing units and other destroyed infrastructure is not conducted using disaster-resilient standards, and disaster risk is in fact increased
ANNUAL FARMER INCOME, constant Rupees Annual Rate of Crop Production, % 2011 Karnataka Drought Impact in Agriculture Sector Production and on Farmers Annual Growth of Crop Production in Karnataka, 2007-2013 20 10 0-10 -20 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Per Capita Income for Farmers in Karnataka, 2007 to 2013 47,500 45,000 42,500 40,000 37,500 35,000 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
ANNUAL GSDP GROWTH RATE, % Estimated Macro-Economic Impact of 2011 Karnataka Drought 11 10 9 8 7 6 Growth Gap: 4.1% (2½ Years) 5 4 3 2 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 No drought After drought
The India PDNA Project NIDM, with support from the World Bank, has engaged the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) to carry out a project to develop a methodology to objectively, systematically and scientifically analyze disaster impact and to estimate post-disaster needs for recovery and reconstruction The 18-month project will draw from the best international practices in this field to bring India to the forefront on these issues The PDNA project has already completed a thorough analysis of existing practices and procedures for disaster impact assessment in 10 States of India Special emphasis is being placed on providing full coverage of all sectors of socio-economic activity, and to fully analyze disaster impact at the personal and household levels In regard to the latter, one important component that refers to measuring disaster impact on quality of life for the affected population deserves special mention
Quality-of-Life Index A composite, quantitative index showing pre- and post-disaster levels of selected components that define quality of life for individual persons or households, that can be measured in the short time available for disaster impact assessment: Housing deficit Number of education days provided to students in the year Number of absence days due to injury, disease, psycho-social trauma Personal or household income Number of persons below poverty level Direct water supply connection at home Direct connection to electricity grid For disasters lasting longer time periods (such as droughts, health crisis, etc.), the following additional indexes may be included: Number of persons facing food insecurity Number of persons facing malnutrition This same quality-of-life index may be used to define when post-disaster recovery has been achieved
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