MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties FROM: HP+P DATE: November 5, 2014 RE: An Early Look at the Election and the 114 th Congress In 2009, three days after his inauguration President Obama told congressional leaders, elections have consequences. That sentiment is as accurate today as it was five years ago. Set out below is 1) a summary of the election results; 2) some key takeaways; 3) the expected calendar and possible agenda for the coming lame duck session of Congress; and 4) possible committee changes resulting from yesterday s election. House of Representatives ELECTION RESULTS Republicans expanded their majority in the House of Representatives and will have at least 242 Members in their Caucus in January 2014. The GOP will have their largest majority in the House since the Great Depression. The results of key races can be found here [LINK TO CHART]. United States Senate Republicans will have a majority in the Senate when the 114 th Congress convenes on January 3, with at least 52 seats. Republicans won in virtually all of the most closely contested races. Rep. Tom Cotton defeated incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Rep. Cory Gardner defeated incumbent Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado. Republican David Perdue defeated Michelle Nunn in Georgia. North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated Senator Kay Hagan. Neither Sen. Landrieu nor Rep. Cassidy received 50% of the vote in Louisiana and will face each other in a runoff election on December 6. Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley lost to Joni Ernst in Iowa while Sens. Roberts and McConnell held on to their seats in Kansas and Kentucky respectively. Sen. Shaheen defeated former Sen. Brown in New Hampshire. As of this writing Dan Sullivan was holding on to a lead over Senator Mark Begich in Alaska. The race in Virginia between Sen. Mark Warner and Ed Gillespie also remained too close to call; state law permits candidates defeated by less than one percent of the vote to request a recount. The results of key races can be found here [LINK TO CHART].
KEY TAKEAWAYS From the election A Republican wave swept across the country as voters expressed strong dissatisfaction with the path of the Nation. Republican Senate candidates primarily won in states carried by Mitt Romney in 2012, and House Republicans added seats in numbers that generally match a President s party s performance during the sixth year of an administration. Republicans now hold governors mansions in swing states like Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Florida and managed to win in blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts. Exit polls portray an anti-dc sentiment, with voters concerned about government overreach, demonstrating a leftward tilt on social issues, and possible shifts right on the economy. Senate Democratic leadership did not schedule votes on issues that could have permitted Democrats running in red states to show their independence from the Obama Administration. For example, although a vote on the Keystone XL pipeline would have divided the Democratic caucus, giving Senators Landrieu, Pryor, and Begich the opportunity to split with the Administration and vote for the pipeline could have allowed them to show their independence from the Administration. Their opponents ran ads claiming they supported the Obama Administration more than 95 percent of the time. In 2012, Democrats were able to capitalize on comments made by Republican candidate Todd Akin (MO) in which he suggested legitimate rape rarely results in a pregnancy. Democrats claimed Republican positions restricting women s rights represented a war on women. After it worked in 2012, Democrats turned to the same playbook in 2014. Senator Mark Udall (CO) has made support for contraception a key issue in his race against Representative Cory Gardner (CO), claiming Gardner s support for a personhood amendment to the Constitution means Gardner wants to ban contraception and life-saving medical treatment for pregnant women. Unlike 2012, Republicans found an effective line of response in 2014. Gardner distanced himself from the personhood issue by announcing his support for over-the-counter sale of contraception without a prescription. Other Republican candidates, including Thom Tillis (NC), Ed Gillespie (VA), and Barbara Comstock (VA), followed Gardner s lead and effectively neutralized an issue that was a major advantage for Democrats in 2012. Republican advantage among men canceled out any Democratic edge among women. 2
For the 114 th Congress One of the first tests for the Republican majority will be adopting a budget resolution for fiscal year (FY) 2016, which does not require cooperation or compromise with the Obama Administration. If they set up a budget reconciliation process to deal with issues like tax reform, entitlement reform (except for Social Security, which is statutorily excluded from reconciliation), health care, and the debt limit, that will mean putting some very controversial cards on the table early in the 114 th Congress. Under current law, the debt limit will reset at its level as of March 15, 2015. Since at that time the Treasury is expected to be running a surplus due to income tax and estimated tax filing activity, Congress should have until sometime in May or later before it has to act on the debt limit. Republicans will want to prove they can govern in anticipation of the 2016 Presidential race. Measures that may gain traction include trade promotion authority, corporate tax reform, significant changes to the Affordable Care Act, roll backs to the Dodd Frank financial law, elimination of the medical device tax, and reforms to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Under a Republican Senate, few appointees may win approval. There are currently 63 judicial vacancies as well as the position of Attorney General to be filled. Confirmation battles will be accelerated into the lame duck session, which probably means both a lengthier session and one that will spend less time on issues not related to nominations. Republicans are likely to consider replacing staff directors for both the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation with people who will be more sympathetic to the new majority s interest in expanding the use of dynamic scoring. With Republican victories, the Senate could take a hard turn to the right. The ongoing battle between the tea party and the traditional GOP establishment that has made it difficult for Speaker Boehner to run the House could now present similar challenges for incoming Senate Majority Leader McConnell. Only 17 Senate Democrats in the new Congress have served in the minority. The Senate Democratic Caucus will have to adjust to their new status and develop plans to remain effective in the 114 th Congress. The new congressional majority may seek to rein in the President s regulatory efforts. Republicans in the House have already passed several efforts to defund Administration rules. The Senate may now follow suit and challenge the President to veto appropriations bills with riders such as those attacking the EPA s carbon-pollution standards or the Department of Education s recently-proposed crackdown on for-profit colleges. 3
For 2016 Democratic eyes will quickly turn to Hillary Clinton, and pressure from party activists and others looking for a new voice to lead the party may result in her declaring her 2016 intentions sooner rather than later. In 2014, Senate Republicans had an ideal environment and a favorable map. Looking ahead to 2016, Republicans will face a number of tough races. Senate Republicans will be defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats up for election in 2016, including three (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Illinois) in states that have voted Democratic in six consecutive presidential elections. Senator Rand Paul (KY) is a big winner in 2014. Paul moved from a fringe 2016 presidential candidate to a true contender during his 2014 efforts on behalf of his colleagues. Other Republican Senators considering seeking their party s nomination in 2016 such as Senators Cruz (TX), Rubio (FL), and Portman (OH) may be spending more time away from Washington as the nomination season begins in earnest. These political and attendance challenges may impact Senator McConnell s ability to legislate. Control of governors mansions can help swing a state s Electoral College votes. Gubernatorial results in swing states like Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Florida will each directly impact the 2016 presidential contest. LAME DUCK Calendar Members are scheduled to return to Washington on Wednesday, November 12. The federal government is currently funded through Thursday, December 11. The new Congress will convene on January 3, 2015 (although that date can be changed by statute and likely will be given that it is a Saturday). Orientation sessions for newly-elected Members will begin in November, and leadership elections for both chambers historically are held during this period as well. House and Senate leadership elections are expected to occur on November 13. The House Republican Steering Committee will likely meet the following week to begin to determine committee leadership and assignments in the 114 th Congress. So-called A committees (Appropriations, Energy & Commerce, Financial Services, and Ways & Means) are expected to be assigned on November 20, with the remaining committees assigned during the week of December 1. House Democrats are not expected to assign committees to their Members until after Thanksgiving. Given the change in Senate leadership and the expected negotiations over committee ratios, committee assignments there likely will not be made until January. 4
Lame Duck Background As an initial matter, it is worth noting that lame duck congressional sessions are a relatively recent phenomenon. According to a recent Congressional Research Service review of the issue, such post-election sessions did not become routine until the Clinton Administration. From 1935 to 1982, Congress convened after elections only 10 times (and most of those sessions occurred during World War II). But the session that begins on November 12 will mark the 10 th time in the past 11 Congresses that lame ducks have convened. Most have been short, but they are growing longer. In 2008, the lame duck did not end until early January 2009. In 2010, the lame duck expired 3 days before Christmas. And the last lame duck featured fiscal cliff standoffs that did not resolve themselves until New Year s Day. Possible Agenda There are several policy areas that are likely receive focus this month and next: Government Funding - The election results present appropriators and congressional leaders with a choice: pass another continuing resolution that punts final FY2015 spending decisions into the new Congress, or develop an omnibus spending measure that funds the federal government through the end of the current fiscal year (September 30, 2015) and permits the new Congress to start spending debates with a clean slate. National Security - Authorization for the Administration s plan to arm and train moderate Syrian rebels also expires on December 11. Members will have to decide whether and how to continue to fund such an operation during the lame duck session. The National Defense Authorization Act has been signed into law in each of the last 53 years; Members will have to quickly negotiate a consensus version of this measure to ensure it is enacted again this year. And last week, Majority Leader Reid told Senator Begich (AK) he would also seek Senate consideration of Begich s bipartisan legislation to provide advance appropriations for all Department of Veterans Affairs operations. TRIA - The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act expires at the end of December. The Senate passed a modest reform package earlier this year, and the more aggressive House reform package made it through committee on a party line vote with no clear path to the floor during lame duck. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Hensarling has suggested that a short-term extension of TRIA is on the table during lame duck, but rankand-file members of his party have sent a letter to leadership requesting a full reauthorization. The expiring act will be dealt with during lame duck, but the final legislative product is unclear. The length of the authorization and scope of reforms are very much in flux. Tax Policy - Last night s results mean House Republicans may be disinclined to approve anything that does not enjoy broad support among their ranks. For example, the House may balk at accepting the Senate Finance Committee s bipartisan across-the-board 2-year 5
tax extenders package unless substantial changes are made, such as making the research and development tax credit permanent. Democrats are already suggesting they might be willing to accept a change like that as long as items like the refundable child tax credit and the work opportunity tax credit are also made permanent. The possible outcomes range from accepting the Finance Committee s $85 billion package as is, allowing it to balloon into a $500 billion package by making some of the provisions permanent, or just opting for a short-term extension that would postpone final decisions on the extenders until the new Congress is sworn in. The only certainty at this point is that the cost of any extender package will not be offset. Before the Senate recessed in September, Majority Leader Reid indicated that, in addition to tax extenders, he will seek Senate consideration of the Marketplace Fairness Act (a bipartisan measure that would allow states to collect taxes from online retailers) prior to adjournment. The Marketplace Fairness Act could be tied to either the Internet Tax Freedom Act (which is scheduled to expire as a part of the continuing resolution on December 11 th ) or the developing extenders package. Telecom - The statute authorizing the retransmission of broadcast content by satellite companies (the Satellite Television Extension and Localism Act, or STELA ) expires at the end of December. Nominations - President Obama is expected to send an Attorney General nominee to the Senate and ask that that person be confirmed before Congress adjourns. There are also over 150 ambassadorial, judicial, and lower-level Administration nominees pending before the Senate. Majority Leader Reid will seek confirmation of as many of these nominations as possible prior to the adjournment of the 113 th Congress. Anything Goes - Recent lame duck sessions have turned into deal-cutting time (port security legislation, an internet gaming ban, the auto bailout, and an extension of the Bush tax cuts were all enacted during post-election congressional debate). While a more limited session may be the likeliest result this year, an expansion of the lame duck s agenda is possible. COMMITTEE CHANGES House of Representatives We anticipate several changes in House committee leadership resulting from last night s election, changes complicated by the House Republicans 6-year cap on committee leadership positions (Democrats traditionally allocate committee leadership positions based on seniority). The margin of victory for Republicans in the House likely means changes in committee ratios come January as well, with several Members of the Democratic Caucus expected to lose seats on panels where they now serve. Some possible changes below: 6
Agriculture Chairman Lucas (OK) has reached the end of his six-year chairmanship and may be replaced by Rep. Conaway (TX). Ranking Member Peterson (MN) retained his seat and will continue to serve as ranking member in the new Congress. Appropriations Chairman Rogers (KY) and Ranking Member Lowey (NY) will remain in their positions, although the leadership of several key subcommittees will change. The retirements of current Transportation-HUD subcommittee chair Tom Latham (IA) and Commerce-Justice-Science subcommittee chair Frank Wolf (VA), along with the departure of Labor-HHS subcommittee chair Jack Kingston (GA), will create a cascading set of changes over the coming months. Chairman Rogers is expected to make subcommittee leadership recommendations to the Republican Steering Committee in December. On the Democratic side, the retirements of Interior-Environment subcommittee ranking member Jim Moran (VA) and Transportation-HUD subcommittee ranking member Ed Pastor (AZ) will trigger changes. Democrats determine subcommittee leadership based on a mix of full and subcommittee seniority. If there is no other movement, Betty McCollum (MN) is in line to be the senior-most Democrat on the Interior-Environment subcommittee, while Mike Quigley (IL) could assume that post on the Transportation-HUD subcommittee. Armed Services Chairman McKeon s (CA) retirement means Mac Thornberry (TX) may chair the panel in the new Congress, although Rep. Forbes (VA) could challenge him for the post. Rep. Smith (WA) will return as ranking member. Budget Chairman Ryan (WI) is expected to chair the Ways & Means Committee in the new Congress; his likely successor as chair of the Budget Committee is Tom Price (GA). We anticipate Rep. Van Hollen (MD) will return as ranking member in the new Congress. Education and the Workforce To continue as chairman in the new Congress, Rep. Kline (MN) will require a waiver from Republican Conference rules (which limit chairmanships to six years). Although Speaker Boehner is expected to grant such a request, if he does not Kline s likely successor is Rep. Foxx (VA). Ranking Member Miller s (CA) retirement clears the way for Bobby Scott (VA) to become the panel s senior-most Democrat in January. Energy and Commerce Chairman Upton (MI) will retain the gavel on the Energy and Commerce Committee, but Ranking Member Waxman s (CA) retirement triggers a race to succeed him. Reps. Eshoo (CA) and Pallone (NJ) have been campaigning for months for the slot. The outcome of that race will not be determined for several weeks, although Minority Leader Pelosi strongly backs Eshoo. As of this writing Commerce, Manufacturing, and Trade Subcommittee Chairman Terry s (NE) trails his Democratic opponent Brad Ashford. If he goes on to lose, Rep. Lance (NJ) is in line to succeed him. 7
Financial Services Chairman Hensarling (TX) and Ranking Member Waters (CA) will likely continue to lead the committee, although Frank Lucas (OK) has suggested he will challenge Hensarling for the post. Foreign Affairs Chairman Royce (CA) and Ranking Member Engel (NY) will continue to lead the committee in the new Congress. Homeland Security Chairman McCaul (TX) and Ranking Member Thompson (MS) will retain their posts in the 114 th Congress. House Administration Chairman Miller (MI) and Ranking Member Brady (PA) will return to their positions in the new Congress. Intelligence Chairman Rogers (MI) retirement opens the gavel on this panel. Intelligence is one of three chairmanships (along with Administration and Ethics) that are selected by the Speaker. Reps. Nunes (CA), King (NY), and Pompeo (KS) have all signaled interest. Rep. Ruppersberger (MD) will return as ranking member. Judiciary Chairman Goodlatte (VA) and Ranking Member Conyers (MI) will continue in their roles in the 114 th Congress. Natural Resources Chairman Hastings (WA) retirement means the committee will have new leadership in January. Rep. Bishop (UT) is likely to succeed him, as Rep. Young (AK) has already served as chair and Rep. Gohmert s historic independence from Republican leadership makes him an unlikely selection. Ranking Member DeFazio (OR) may continue in his role, depending upon whether he elects to serve as ranking member on the Transportation Committee. Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Issa (CA) is term limited. His successor is likely to be one of four Members currently seeking the gavel: Jason Chaffetz (UT), Michael Turner (OH), Jim Jordan (OH), or John Mica (FL). Rep. Cummings (MD) will return as ranking member in January. Rules Chairman Sessions (TX) and Ranking Member Slaughter (NY) will retain their posts in the new Congress. Science Chairman Smith (TX) and Ranking Member Johnson (TX) will continue in their positions in January. Small Business Chairman Graves (MO) is term limited; his likely successor is Rep. Chabot (OH). Ranking Member Velazquez (NY) will remain in her position. 8
Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Shuster (PA) will continue to lead the committee. Ranking Member Rahall s (WV) loss puts Rep. DeFazio in line as the senior committee Democrat in the new Congress. Veterans Affairs Chairman Miller (FL) can remain in his post at the Veterans Affairs Committee, although he may elect to lead the Intelligence Committee instead. If he relinquishes the gavel, his successor is likely to be either Rep. Bilirakis (FL), Rep. Lamborn (CO), Rep. Roe (TN), or Rep. Flores (TX). Ranking Member Michaud s (ME) gubernatorial bid clears the way for Rep. Corrine Brown (FL) to lead panel Democrats in the new Congress. Ways and Means Chairman Camp s (MI) retirement opens the gavel for Rep. Ryan (WI), although more senior Rep. Brady (TX) has signaled interest in the chairmanship. Ranking Member Levin (MI) will retain his post. United States Senate The change in control of the Senate will dramatically alter committee leadership and will result in revised committee ratios that likely will force several Democrats off of committees on which they now serve. Below is an early analysis of possible changes. Aging Senator Collins (ME) is in line to chair the panel. Senator Nelson s (FL) seniority would permit him to serve as ranking member, but he is expected to lead Commerce Committee Democrats. Senator Tom Udall (NM) could end up as the seniormost Democrat on Aging. Agriculture Senator Roberts (KS) is in line to chair the committee in the new Congress (Roberts also chaired the House Agriculture Committee from 1995 to 1997). Current Chairman Stabenow (MI) will serve as the committee s senior Democrat. Appropriations Senator Cochran (MS) will chair the committee in the 114 th Congress (Cochran has seniority over current Ranking Member Shelby (AL)), with Senator Mikulski (MD) serving as ranking member. Armed Services Senator McCain (AZ) will assume the chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee. Senator Reed (RI) is in line to succeed retiring Chairman Levin (MI) as the leader of panel Democrats, although his seniority would also permit him to hold the same position on the Banking Committee, should he choose to do so. If Reed opts to serve as ranking member on Banking, Senator McCaskill (MO) is next in line to serve as Armed Services Committee ranking member. Banking Senator Shelby has seniority to reclaim the Banking Committee gavel (he led the committee from 2003 to 2006). Tim Johnson s (SD) retirement means Senator Brown (OH) will serve as ranking member in the 114 th Congress, although as referenced 9
previously that change assumes Senator Reed elects to serve as senior-most Democrat on the Armed Services Committee. Budget Senator Sessions is the likely new chair of the Budget Committee. Determining which Democrat will serve as ranking member is somewhat convoluted. Current Chairman Murray (WA) has seniority to remain as senior-most Democrat in the new Congress, although she may elect to serve in that position on the HELP Committee instead. In that case, the Democratic leadership will likely allow the ranking member slot to go to Independent Senator Sanders (VT). He is currently fifth most senior member on the Democratic side of the panel, but senators more senior than him are expected to lead Democrats on other panels (Senator Wyden (OR) at Finance, Senator Nelson (FL) at Commerce, and Senator Stabenow (MI) at Agriculture). Commerce Current Ranking Member John Thune (SD) will chair the Commerce Committee in the 114 th Congress. Senator Nelson is likely to serve as his ranking member, although as discussed above his seniority gives him a choice between that position and the same one on the Budget Committee. In the event he chooses Budget, Senator Cantwell (WA) would become the senior Democrat (Senator Boxer (CA) is more senior than Senator Cantwell, but she is expected to serve as ranking member on the Environment and Public Works Committee). Energy and Natural Resources Senator Murkowski (AK) will likely the chair the committee in January. If Senator Landrieu (LA) is reelected, she will serve as ranking member. A Landrieu loss would clear the way for Senator Cantwell (WA) to lead committee Democrats. Environment and Public Works Senator Inhofe (OK) will chair the committee in the new Congress (although Senate Republican Conference rules would limit his chairmanship to two years as he served as the committee s chair from 2003 to 2007). Senator Boxer will serve as ranking member. Finance Senator Hatch (UT) is expected to chair the committee in the 114 th Congress, with current Chairman Ron Wyden (OR) as his ranking member. Foreign Relations Current Ranking Member Corker (TN) will become the chair, and Chairman Menendez (NJ) will be ranking member. Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Ranking Member Lamar Alexander (TN) is expected to lead the panel in the new Congress. Chairman Harkin s (IA) retirement means Senator Murray (WA) is likely to serve as ranking member. Homeland Security Senator Johnson (WI) is likely to chair the committee as current Ranking Member Tom Coburn (OK) is retiring. Current Chairman Tom Carper (DE) will serve as ranking member. 10
Indian Affairs Current Ranking Member John Barrasso (WY) will chair the panel in the 114 th Congress, and with current Chair Senator Tester (MT) expected to take over the ranking slot at Veterans Affairs, Senator Franken (MN) appears to be the likely new ranking member. Intelligence Vice Chairman Saxby Chambliss (GA) is retiring, clearing a path for Senator Richard Burr (NC) to chair the committee in January. Current Chair Dianne Feinstein (CA) will serve as vice chair. Judiciary Leadership on the committee will likely stay the same, with current Ranking Member Grassley (IA) assuming the chairmanship, and Chairman Patrick Leahy (VT) serving as ranking member. Small Business Current Ranking Member Jim Risch (ID) will chair the committee in the new Congress. If current Small Business chair Senator Cantwell (WA) ends up as ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the leader of the Small Business Democrats could be Senator Cardin (MD). Veterans Affairs Assuming current Ranking Member Burr elects to chair the Intelligence Committee, Senator Isakson (GA) is next in line and will chair the committee in the new Congress. Current Chairman Bernie Sanders is line to become ranking member, although if he elects to serve in that capacity on the Budget Committee the Democrats would instead be led by Senator Tester (MT). 11