Insights into the Future: Business Intelligence in International Education NEAS Conference 2010 Melissa Banks
Australia s International Student Program (AEI) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Higher Education VET Schools ELICOS Other/non award 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Australia s International Student Program (multiple sources) 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 ELICOS Non Student Visa Enrolments Higher Education Offshore Enrolments VET Offshore Enrolments AEI Student Visa Enrolments 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Data Challenges Sources Accessibility Differing methodologies Differing terminologies and definitions Different scope Lag in collection and publication Lack of data
What does the data tell us? COULD WE HAVE FORESEEN WHAT WAS COMING?
Student Visa Enrolments By Sector (AEI) 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Higher Education VET Non Government VET Government Schools ELICOS Other Non Award
Student Visa Enrolments from India By Sector (AEI) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Higher Education VET Non Government VET Government Schools ELICOS Other Non Award
ELICOS Enrolments By Provider Type (AEI) 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Government Non Government
Government VET Enrolments India (AEI) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 VET All Providers Government India Government 50,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Non Government VET Enrolments India (AEI) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 VET All Providers Non Government India Non Government 50,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 This is what we technically refer to as a bubble
ELICOS Student Enrolments India (AEI) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Changes to CALS 573 Sept 08 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Government Non Government
International Student Enrolments USA (Open Doors) 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Other India is not in the top 20 source countries for intensive English programs
International Student Enrolments in Australia (AEI) Total enrolments GFC 700000 Oil crisis 600000 500000 400000 Bird flu Asian economic crisis 9/11 SARS 300000 200000 100000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Global student mobility is fairly resilient but destination countries can intentionally or unintentionally restrict inbound flows
Can We Weather the Perfect Storm? WHAT IS HAPPENING?
Student Visa Trends Increased visa rejections (India) Reduction in visa applications especially from India o H Ed- applications down India, Nepal o VET- applications down top 3 markets India, China and Nepal o Schools- applications down largest market China o ELICOS- applications down all top student visa markets China, India, South Korea, Brazil, Thailand
Offshore Student Visa Grants (DIAC) AusAid Defence Non Award PGR H ED VET Schools 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10* ELICOS 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Offshore e-visa Grants (DIAC) Non Award PGR H ED VET Schools 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10* ELICOS 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
All Offshore Student Visa Grants (DIAC) Non Award PGR H ED VET Schools 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10* Program Year ELICOS 0 50000 100000 150000 200000
Student Visa Applications (July- Jan) H ED VET 2008/09 Schools 2009/10 ELICOS 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
Enquiry Trends as a Lead Indicator Enquiry data is sourced from Hobsons Enquiry Management Service (HEMS) 14 Australian Universities and several TAFE and private VET providers Hobsons has collected almost 10 years of enquiry data The enquiry pipeline for higher education is typically 10-12 months duration
Enquiries (Hobsons)
Enquiries (Hobsons)
Enquiries (Hobsons)
Enquiries (Hobsons)
Barriers to Entry and Demand Dampeners WHAT IS DAMPENING DEMAND FOR AUSTRALIA?
Barriers to Entry How to manage demand Tighten visa regulations (CALS, Financial sponsors, living costs requirements) Visa rejections Changes to GSM policies and MODL/SOL Increase tuition fees Constrain supply
International Students in US (Open Doors) Impact of closed borders
What Is Impacting Brand Australia? Costs/ Currency Provider quality Cost of living Availability (or not) of affordable student accommodation Quality of the student experience and positive word of mouth referral
Currency 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 USD/AUD USD/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service: http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/
May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Currency 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 INR/AUD INR/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service: http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/
May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Currency KRW/AUD 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 KRW/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service: http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/
May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Currency CNY/AUD 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CNY/AUD Pacific Exchange Rate Service: http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/
Provider Quality Rankings Positive word of mouth referral- current and past students Awards recognition Graduate outcomes Recent closure of English language centres and VET colleges
Cost of Living (Prospect Research) Accommodation and living costs are of key concern Cost of living is greater than expected causing students to adapt their expectations and behaviour 48% have curbed their lifestyle Almost 30% have chosen to work part time even though they had originally not intended to work while they studied 22% moved to less expensive accommodation
Cost of Living (Prospect Research) 49% found the costs associated with studying to be higher than expected due to costs of books, printing and internet access For one in seven the differential has caused them significant financial hardship
Cost of Living (Prospect Research)
Student Experience TDA (i-graduate ISB)
Student Experience EA (i-graduate ISB)
Student Experience TDA (i-graduate ISB)
Student Experience EA (i-graduate ISB)
Student Experience EA (i-graduate ISB)
Student Experience Off-Campus TDA (i-graduate ISB)
Student Experience Off-Campus EA (i-graduate ISB)
Trends in Global Student Mobility SO WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON?
Growth in Global Tertiary Education Enrolments (UNESCO) As more students participate in tertiary education numbers travelling abroad increases proportionally
Destinations of International Students (OECD) Other OECD countries, 7.0% Netherlands, 1.3% Switzerland, 1.4% Belgium, 1.4% China, 1.4% Sweden, 1.4% Austria, 1.4% South Africa, 1.8% Italy, 1.9% Spain, 2.0% Russian Federation, 2.0% New Zealand, 2.1% Japan, 4.2% Other partner countries, 11.3% Canada, 4.4% Australia, 7.0% France, 8.2% United States 19.7% Germany 8.6% MESDCs are hosting a declining share United Kingdom 11.6%
Shifts in Global Student Mobility (Lasanowski in OBHE) Middle Powers- Germany, France, China. Combined 25% share drawing from proximate or culturally affiliated countries Shape Shifters- Canada, NZ, Japan. Combined 10% share of all mobile tertiary students. Remain in the shadow of more popular neighbours Emerging Contenders- Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea. Combined 5% share. These markets have established themselves as regional hubs. Directional flows are shifting west to east and east to east Two step mobility (eg China to Singapore to Australia).
Growing Regionalism (UNESCO) Sub Saharan Africa South and West Asia Western Europe North America Latin America and Carribean East Asia and Pacific Central Asia Central and Eastern Europe Arab States +4.5 +12.2 +6.2 +6.0 +2.9 +3.7 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% % Studying in Region 2007 % Studying Outside Region 2007
Increased Mobility in Some Regions (UNESCO) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 +0.5 +1.1 +0.4 +0.8 Outbound Mobility Ratio (%) 2007
Concentration By Fields of Study (UNESCO) Mobile students Domestic students 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Business and Administration Eng, Manuf and Constr'n Social Sciences & Law Education Agriculture Science Humanities and Arts Health & Welfare Services
Levels of Study (UNESCO) Mobile students Domestic students 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Occupationally Oriented Bachelors Masters Advanced Research
Global Language Travel (Language Travel Magazine Survey) 2000000 Students 1500000 1000000 Students 500000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008
Global ELT Market Share (adjusted from English Australia) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Can we avoid this happening again? SO WHERE TO FROM HERE?
Make Hay While the Sun Shines But... Diffuse risk: Source markets Products: o General Skilled Migration courses o Pathways o Industry/ professional awards, internationally certified, government endorsed programs Mode of offering Monitor trends and identify opportunities/ risks Quality of the student experience/ retention Consult and collaborate
Growth Markets Factors that impact demand for tertiary education: Population Income Participation Factors that impact demand for international tertiary education: Access and supply at home Numbers coming to Australia: Market share
Global Demand Forecasts Global Number of International Students ('000) 15 845 12 821 9 346 792 309 7 751 274 671 241 1,755 206 1,576 1,403 1,197 952 231 188 96 120 151 242 299 355 426 523 20 Growth Rate 5.50% 1.10% 2.60% 3.00% 4.50% 3.90% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Africa Middle East Asia America Europe Oceania GSM 2007 (Banks, Olsen, Pearce)
Global Shares 100% Global Number of International Students Shares 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Africa Middle East Asia America Europe Oceania GSM 2007 (Banks, Olsen, Pearce)
Forecasting History tells us: UNESCO Average 4% growth per annum since 1975 IIE Open Doors just over 4% growth per annum since 1975 GSM 2007 forecast average global growth of 2.7% through to 2025 (3.7 million) Average growth of 2.9% for Australian higher education through to 2025 (291K)
Supply and Demand The Global Student Mobility Study 2007 determined that Australia s universities will have satisfied their appetites/ reached capacity at 26% of representation. Currently international students represent just over 20% of the total onshore student population. There will be opportunities for the private sector. Enrolments in private HEPs are growing at a faster rate than enrolments at public universities.
Commencing VET Enrolments from India (AEI) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Auto Engineering Baking and Pastrymaking Welfare Studies Hairdressing Cookery 2,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 November 2005 16 trade occupations listed on MODL. By May 2008 this had been increased to 49 March 2009 CSL introduced, only 5 trade occupations listed September 2009 priority processing only for those with post-graduate qualifications and occupations listed on CSL January 2010 Vocational English threshold increased to 6.0, work ready test
Pathways to Higher Education 40% of commencing international higher education students were already located in Australia (AUIDF Benchmarking) Of all the commencing higher education students in 2008 over 18% came from an ELICOS program. ELICOS is the largest pathway into higher education. An estimated 67% of all ELICOS students studying on a student visa continue their studies on completion of their initial ELICOS program (AEI Pathways data)
Government VET Enrolments 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Students based in China Other TNE Enrolments China Enrolments Onshore Other Onshore Enrolments
Diversification 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Students based in China Students based elsewhere Public VET TNE (NCVER)
Diversification 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Students based in China Other TNE Enrolments China Enrolments Onshore Other Onshore Enrolments Almost 60% of international students enrolled in Government VET are from China
Retention Recent study with 17 case study institutions found: The annual cost to Australia s universities was $1 billion dollars ($36 Million per university) in lost fee revenue and marketing costs. Every one percent drop saves $100 million or $2.6 million per university Hobsons Retention Study 2010
Monitor Trends Population (UN World Population Prospects) 15-19 yrs Look for growth or decline in 15-19 yr olds 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 Income PPP (IMF) Look at changes in actual PPP and forecasts Participation in Education (UNESCO) Look for growth in participation in upper secondary. This will drive Upper secondary demand for tertiary education Look to see what proportion of the population is participating in Tertiary tertiary education Look for expansion in tertiary provision. Is it adequate to meet Growth in tertiary education places increasing population and participation in upper secondary? Investment in Education % GDP Outbound Mobility (UNESCO, IIE) To what extent is the government investing. It is often helpful to compare against other markets eg Australia or other source markets # Studying abroad globally Is there a culture of studying abroad? % studying in MESDC Do students seek to study in a MESDC? Key destination markets Where do they go Australia's market share What proportion come to Australia?
Monitor Trends Source UNESCO Global Education Dijest and UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS) OECD Education at a Glance United Nations World Population Prospects International Monetary Fund Currency Pacific Exchange rate Service OANDA Currency Converter IIE Open Doors UK HESA Education New Zealand and Ministry of Education International student mobility host and source countries, numbers studying tertiary education abroad, change Tertiary education participation rates secondary and tertiary education Completion rates tertiary education expenditure on education as a % of GDP both private and government Population 15-19 year olds and 20-24 yrs. Current and forecast population Income current and forecast- look for changes to PPP Compare exchange rates across destination markets and source markets International student enrolments in US International student enrolments in UK international students in NZ
Monitor Trends National Datasets and Sources AEI Overseas Student Data Pivot Tables AEI Research Snapshots AEI TNE Good Practice in Offshore Delivery, Country Regulatory Fact Sheets Australian Bureau of Statistics TDA Benchmarking NCVER AVETMISS English Australia DIAC Student Visa Grants DIAC General Skilled Migration Data
Share and Collaborate Benchmarking Best practice Shared intelligence Reduced cost of research Staff development
Melissa Banks mjbanks@iinet.net.au THANK YOU