THE FUTURE OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN TEXAS WOODY L. HUNT, CHAIRMAN HIGHER EDUCATION STRATEGIC PLANNING COMMITTEE September 17, 2015 1
Let s talk about higher education in Texas and the educational competitiveness of the Texas work force Where do we stand in terms of the educational attainment of our work force? Why is it so important to our state? What can we do to raise the bar? 2
CLOSING THE GAPS ANNUAL DEGREE COMPLETION MORE THAN DOUBLED FROM 2000 to 2014 IN 2000, ESTABLISHED A GOAL OF 163,000 ANNUAL POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIALS BY 2015 *THE GOAL WAS LATER INCREASED TO 210,000 TO REFLECT INCREASE IN POPULATION THAT GOAL WAS ACHIEVED IN 2011 246,499 IN 2014 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011 2014 2015 ACTUALS 116,235 132,478 155,527 188,927 221,538 246,499
Texas healthy business environment has become a major contributor to our educational attainment goals 4
TEXAS HAS BENEFITED FROM IMPORTING COLLEGE-EDUCATED RESIDENTS NET ANNUAL MIGRATION BY DEGREE LEVEL - 22-64 YEAR OLDS AVERAGE FROM 2011-2013 60000 50000 40000 30000 53,476 28,880 NET ANNUAL IMPORTS 95,818 WITH POSTSECONDARY ATTAINMENT 20000 10000 0 13,462 Associates Bachelor's Graduate TOTAL NET ANNUAL IMPORTS 201,530 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files 5
Closing the Gaps by 2015 S goals seemed bold at the time and helped bring Texas on par with comparable states. International data on attainment levels, however, suggests that the bar was set too low. Far too low. 6
TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND Percent of adults with an associate degree or higher. Source: Educa2on at a Glance 2014, OECD Indicators and American Communi2es Survey Public Use Microdata Sample 2013 7
TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND TEXANS 55-64 YEARS OLD RANK 5th IN THE WORLD EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER TEXANS 25-34 YEARS OLD RANK 25TH IN THE WORLD EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ASSOCIATE OR HIGHER Texas attainment levels have stayed relatively steady, but in a global economy, staying steady = falling behind 8
TEXAS IS LOSING GROUND COMPARING TEXAS WITH NATIONS AND OTHER STATES PERCENTAGE OF YOUNG ADULT DEGREE ATTAINMENT - (AGES 25-34) Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2014 (for 2012); U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File 9
OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE Our future workforce will demand even more postsecondary trained and educated workers. IN 1973 ONLY 28% OF ALL U.S. JOBS REQUIRED POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION/SKILLS BY 2020 65% OF ALL NEW JOBS WILL REQUIRE POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION/SKILLS Currently, 35% of Texans aged 25-34 have an associate degree or higher. 10 11
SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS Texas is doing better but falling farther behind It is an urgent matter that Texas increase the knowledge and skills of its workforce to globally competitive standards Failure to do so will have serious economic consequences for both the state and its citizens 11 11
SIGNIFICANT WORK REMAINS TO ENSURE TEXAS SUSTAINS PROGRESS We must be much more aggressive in our expectations and our policies incrementalism is not a solution o Benchmark against global best performance o Be much more strategic in Increasing capacity to deliver instruction Investing public resources As largest donor and regulator, the state s role is central in laying out educational goals for our state workforce and our public institutions In setting goals, the state must prioritize completion 12 12
The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2012) Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2012) 55 48 41 34 27 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income UT MT OR NC ME GA FL AZ MI ID SC MO OH NM IN AL TN OK MS KY AR WV NV LA HI IL NE RI WA KS IA WI US SD PA CA DE TX CO MN VT VA High College Attainment, High Personal Income NH AK WY NY MD MA NJ ND CT State New Economy Index 2012 Top Tier Middle Tier Bottom Tier 20 Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 Personal Income per Capita (2013) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; ITIF 2012 New Economy Index 13
Texas Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average (1980-2012) 110 100 97.8 96.4 94.0 93.6 94.5 95.0 97.8 90 89.2 90.6 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 14
Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #1: Demographics 15
PERCENT OF 0-24 YEAR-OLDS IN U.S. WHO ARE BLACK OR HISPANIC (2013) 70 59.8 60 50 40 37.3 30 20 10 0 Texas New Mexico California Florida Nevada Mississippi Georgia Arizona Maryland Louisiana South Carolina New York Illinois New Jersey Delaware North Carolina Nation Alabama Colorado Virginia Connecticut Arkansas Tennessee Rhode Island Michigan Massachusetts Kansas Washington Pennsylvania Oklahoma Oregon Nebraska Indiana Ohio Missouri Wisconsin Hawaii Idaho Utah Minnesota Wyoming Kentucky Iowa Alaska South Dakota North Dakota New Hampshire West Virginia Montana Maine Vermont 4.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013 State Population Estimates 16
TEXAS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE/ETHNICITY (TOTAL AND K-12) 60% 50% 40% 30% Total Population 2013 Public Elementary and Secondary Students 2012-13 51.3% 43.9% 38.8% 30.0% 20% 10% 11.5% 12.7% 5.8% 6.0% 0% White Hispanic Black Other Source: Texas Data Center; U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Education Statistics 17
DIFFERENCE IN COLLEGE ATTAINMENT BETWEEN WHITES AND MINORITIES IN U.S. Whites Black Hispanic Underrepresented MinoriDes (Black, Hispanic, American Indian, Alaska NaDve) AJainment AJainment Difference AJainment Difference AJainment Difference Texas 45.6% 30.0% 15.6% 18.0% 27.6% 21.1% 24.5 U.S. 44.5% 28.1% 16.4% 20.3% 24.2% 23.7% 20.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-13 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File 18
ATTAINMENT REMAINS LOW PERCENTAGE OF 2004 8 TH GRADERS WHO EARNED POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIAL WITHIN 6 YEARS OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION 20.3% STATEWIDE 13.2% HISPANICS 12.5% AFRICAN AM. 28.7% WHITE 10.4% ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED Despite more postsecondary completions, attainment among Hispanics, African Americans, and poor students remains low SOURCE: Texas Higher EducaDon CoordinaDng Board 7 19
RACE/ETHNICITY DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED WORKING AGE TEXAS POPULATION - 25 TO 34 YEAR OLDS 2015 2030 African American 12% Other 6% African American 11% Other 8% White 39% Hispanic 43% White 29% Hispanic 52% 25 to 34 Year Olds 2015 2030 Hispanic 1,644,627 2,323,615 41% White 1,463,893 1,314,723-10% African American 445,875 496,710 11% Other 245,307 349,304 42% Total 3,799,702 4,484,352 18% 20
PROJECTED CHANGE IN TEXAS POPULATION BY AGE AND RACE/ETHNICITY, 2010-2030 2,000,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,191,767 White African American Hispanic / Latino 1,445,090 1,433,719 1,291,243 1,062,750 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 52,947 22,506 512,100 157,802 182,325 356,570 - (250,000) (500,000) (750,000) (520,195) (202,298) (96,448) (19,448) Age 0-17 Age 18-24 Age 25-44 Age 25-64 Age 65+ Source: Texas State Data Center, Office of the State Demographer 21
Texas must sustain educational progress. Barrier #2: Economics 22
INCOME PERCENT OF TEXAS FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN 17 AND YOUNGER BY INCOME QUARTILE, 2012 Percent 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic 42 42.3 35.4 27.9 29.1 24.1 19.4 21.4 20 16.1 12.5 9.8 Lowest Second Third Highest Source: US Census Bureau: American Community Survey 23
ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED STUDENTS ENROLL AND COMPLETE AT LOWER RATES 100 90 80 95 STUDENT PIPELINE BY ECONOMIC DISADVANTAGE TRANSITION RATES FROM 8 TH GRADE TO COLLEGE COMPLETION Of Fall 2004 8 th Graders, how many were: 92 79 Not Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged 70 60 60 66 50 40 30 40 30 20 10 10 0 Enrolled in 9th Grade Texas Public High School Graduate Source: THECB, TEA, 2014 Enrolled in Higher Education (Anytime after High School Graduation) Completed a Higher Education Degree or Certificate by 2011 24
THE CONSEQUENCES OF INACTION 25
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT WILL DROP IF CURRENT PROGRESS DOES NOT ACCELERATE 2030 PROJECTED CHANGE IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF POPULATION, AGES 25-64 SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY ASSUMED 30 2012 2030 25 21.0 24.7 25.1 23.4 22.4 20 17.4 18.5 16.9 15 10 7.1 6.6 8.9 8.0 5 0 Less than High School High School or GED Some College, No Degree Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graudate or Professional Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey and 2010-12 American Community Survey Three-Year PUMS. 26
PERSONAL INCOME WILL DROP IF EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT RATES DO NOT IMPROVE PROJECTED CHANGE IN PERSONAL INCOME PER CAPITA BY 25 TO 64 WITH SAME ATTAINMENT RATES BY RACE/ETHNICITY $40,066 $37,147 2012 2030 Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ACS and 2010-12 ACS Three-Year PUMS. 27
WITHOUT IMPROVEMENTS, STATE REVENUES WILL DECLINE AND EXPENDITURES WILL INCREASE CHANGES AS A RESULT OF NOT IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AMONG BLACK AND HISPANICS - YEAR 2030 ESTIMATES 1,000,000,000 575,664,605 500,000,000 254,512,050 0-500,000,000-1,000,000,000-690,727,473-1,500,000,000 State Income Tax Revenues -1,335,450,668 Sales Tax Revenues Property Tax Revenues Medicaid Expenditures Corrections Expenditures Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2009 American Community Survey (PUMS), 2008-10 Current Population Survey (PUMS) 28
GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE: THE HISTORY OF EL PASO 29
FAMILY INCOME 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME AND EDUCATION ATTAINMENT 1950 TO 2012, EL PASO RELATIVE TO TEXAS 40 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Median Family Income Adults with High School Diploma Adults with 4+ Years of College Sources: Christine Thurlow Brenner (2001), Educational Trends and Income in El Paso: A Longitudinal Perspective, University of Texas at El Paso, Institute for Policy and Economic Development. 2008, 2009 American Community Survey. 30
EL PASO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EL PASO EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE (25-64 YEARS) ASSOCIATES DEGREE AND HIGHER (%) 70 60 57.7 60.7 59.4 50 40 30 20 45.0 44.9 43.9 35.7 29.2 27.6 24.8 17.7 19.8 30.0 34.2 38.9 10 0 White Black Asian Hispanic Total El Paso County Texas U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-12 American Community Survey Three-Year Public Use Microdata Sample. 31
TEXAS MUST ADDRESS CHALLENGES TO MAINTAIN A GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE WORKFORCE Raise education attainment levels to meet or exceed our competitors Shrink disparities across race and ethnic groups Get more students into high-demand technical fields Improve skills of adult population by bringing them back into the education system 32 13
THESE CHALLENGES ARE BEING ADDRESSED BY THE TEXAS HIGHER EDUCATION COORDINATING BOARD S NEW STRATEGIC PLAN: 60x30TX 2015-2030 33
DEVELOPING HIGHER EDUCATION STRATEGIC PLAN GOALS BY 2030 1 2 3 4 60% OF TEXANS AGED 25-34 WILL HAVE A POSTSECONDARY CREDENTIAL OR DEGREE 550,000 STUDENTS WILL COMPLETE A CERTIFICATE OR AN ASSOCIATE, BACHELOR S OR MASTER S ALL AWARD RECIPIENTS FROM TEXAS PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION WILL GRADUATE FROM PROGRAMS WITH IDENTIFIED MARKETABLE SKILLS THE AVERAGE UNDERGRADUATE STUDENT LOAN DEBT OF GRADUATES FROM TEXAS PUBLIC COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES WILL BE NO GREATER THAN 60% OF THE AVERAGE FIRST YEAR WAGE These goals are very audacious given where Texas is. But is the bar high enough? 34
We must all work together to ensure the progress of education in Texas. THANK YOU WE LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR FEEDBACK TODAY ON OUR WORK IN PROGRESS 35