1 Ten years after Bucharest, 15 April 2014 Bulgaria after accession to the EU
2 Starting with conclusions It is time to celebrate and appreciate fully EU membership Somber assessment the importance of being critical Address the gaps and build on strengths
3 Three problem areas The public expectations gap re: EU The catching-up gap The public policy and debate gap
4 Participation in policy making and debate Policy drivers Policy killers Policy takers
Public support and political consensus on EU membership confirmed (July 2013) 5
- Discrepancy between trust in EU and identity - But not a cultural thing, other factors at play 6
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Public expectations 2008-2013 on EU Bulgarians tend to perceive more realistically EU s role as external agent of change 8
9 Needs and roles gap The EU is perceived differently in Bulgaria; E.g. EU s democracy gap is not an issue in Bulgaria, instead: The EU is perceived as an arbiter and institution of resort to compensate for dysfunctional state;
What is the Catch-Up Index? Are we there yet? Are the ten new, post-communist member states of the EU the EU10 catching up with the old, Western EU members? The index registers the level of convergence or divergence along four categories: Economy Quality of Life Democracy and Governance The index also includes the EU candidate and potential candidate countries, so there are 35 countries covered by the index The standardized scores of the source data are used the scores are from 100 to 0 (highest to lowest) There are two editions the 2012 Index is still unpublished
11 The Catching-Up Gap: EU10+1 Overall Score Group Country Rank 2013 EU15+2 Maximum 72 1 EU15+2 Average 60 10 Score vs 2012 Score vs 2011 Rank vs 2012 Rank vs 2011 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 13 0 2 2 4 EU10+1 Slovenia 54 14-1 -2-1 -1 EU10+1 Estonia 53 16 1 1 2 2 EU10+1 Slovakia 49 19 1 2 2 2 EU10+1 Poland 49 20 0 2 0 2 EU10+1 Lithuania 47 22 3 2 2 2 EU10+1 Hungary 45 24-1 -2-1 -1 EU10+1 Latvia 42 25 2 1 2 2 EU10+1 Croatia 41 26 0 0 0 0 EU15+2 Minimum 38 27 EU10+1 Bulgaria 34 28 0 0 1 0 EU10+1 Romania 34 29-1 1-1 0
What is the Catch-Up Index? Are we there yet? Are the ten new, post-communist member states of the EU the EU10 catching up with the old, Western EU members? The index registers the level of convergence or divergence along four categories: Economy Quality of Life Democracy and Governance The index also includes the EU candidate and potential candidate countries, so there are 35 countries covered by the index The standardized scores of the source data are used the scores are from 100 to 0 (highest to lowest) There are two editions the 2012 Index is still unpublished
13
14 Sort of a good news Group Trends by Overall Scores and Ranking Country Overall Score 2013 Rank 2013 Score change vs 2012 Score change vs 2011 Rank change vs 2012 Rank change vs 2011 EU15+2 Sweden 72 1 0 1 1 2 EU10+1 Poland 49 20 0 2 0 2 EU15+2 Greece 38 27-3 -6-2 -2 EU10+1 Bulgaria 34 28 0 0 1 0 EU10+1 Romania 34 29-1 1-1 0 CC Montenegro 33 30 3 4 0 0 CC Serbia 28 31 0 0 0 0 CC Macedonia 26 32-1 -1 0 0 CC Turkey 25 33 0 1 0 0 PCC BiH 23 34 3 2 1 1 PCC Albania 22 35-1 0-1 -1
Clusters in Europe Catch-Up Index 2013 15
16 Economy Group Country Economy Score Score vs Score vs Rank vs Rank vs Rank 2013 2012 2011 2012 2011 EU15+2 Maximum 75 1 EU15+2 Average 57 9 EU10+1 Estonia 54 13 2 1 3 3 EU10+1 Slovenia 52 14-2 -4-1 0 EU10+1 Lithuania 51 15 3 4 4 6 EU10+1 Czech Republic 50 16 1 2 2 2 EU10+1 Latvia 47 19 3 3 3 4 EU10+1 Slovakia 47 20 0 1 0 0 EU10+1 Poland 45 22 0 3 2 2 EU10+1 Hungary 44 24 1 3 2 2 EU10+1 Croatia 43 25-1 1 0 0 EU10+1 Romania 40 27 1 2 0 2 EU10+1 Bulgaria 39 28 0 1 0 0 EU15+2 Min 32 34
17 Democracy Group Country Democracy Score 2013 Rank Score vs 2012 Score vs 2011 Rank vs 2012 Rank vs 2011 EU15+2 Maximum 76 1 EU15+2 Average 61 10 EU10+1 Estonia 59 12-1 2-1 0 EU10+1 Czech Republic 57 14 0 0-1 0 EU10+1 Slovenia 54 17 0 0 0 0 EU10+1 Poland 52 18-1 1 0 3 EU10+1 Slovakia 51 20-2 2 0 3 EU10+1 Lithuania 49 21 0-2 1-1 EU10+1 Hungary 43 24-2 -9 0-2 EU10+1 Croatia 42 25 1 1 0 2 EU10+1 Latvia 40 26 0-4 0-1 EU15+2 Minimum 35 27 EU10+1 Bulgaria 34 28 0 0 0 0 EU10+1 Romania 34 29-1 2 0 0
18 Quality of Life Group Country Quality of Life Rank Score vs Score vs Rank vs Rank vs Score 2013 2013 2012 2011 2012 2011 EU15+2 Maximum 71 1 EU15+2 Average 62 10 EU10+1 Czech Republic 58 13 2 5 3 5 EU10+1 Slovenia 57 14-1 0 0 1 EU10+1 Slovakia 49 19 2 4 3 5 EU10+1 Estonia 48 21 0-1 -1-1 EU10+1 Poland 48 22 1 3 2 1 EU15+2 Minimum 46 23 EU10+1 Lithuania 45 24 7 4 2 2 EU10+1 Hungary 44 25-4 -3-4 -3 EU10+1 Croatia 41 26 1-3 -1-1 EU10+1 Latvia 38 27 2 2 0 0 EU10+1 Bulgaria 29 30-1 -1 1 0 EU10+1 Romania 28 31-4 1-1 0
19 Governance Group Country Governance Rank Score vs Score vs Rank vs Rank vs Score 2013 2013 2012 2011 2012 2011 EU15+2 Maximum 75 1 EU15+2 Average 62 9 EU10+1 Czech Republic 55 14-1 0 1 3 EU10+1 Slovenia 55 16-1 -3 0-2 EU10+1 Estonia 52 19 2 2 0 0 EU10+1 Poland 51 20 1 3 0 0 EU10+1 Slovakia 50 21 3 3 0 0 EU10+1 Hungary 49 22 2 2 0 0 EU10+1 Latvia 44 23 4 4 2 2 EU10+1 Lithuania 43 24 1 1 0 0 EU10+1 Croatia 39 26 0 0 0 1 EU15+2 Minimum 37 27 EU10+1 Bulgaria 35 28 0 0 0 0 EU10+1 Romania 34 29 0 0 0 0
Catching-up in Quality of Life e.g. public services - seems the most difficult 20
21 Positive signs: economy and democracy indicators GOVERNMENT DEBT Group Country Score Ranking EU10+1 Estonia 82 1 EU10+1 Bulgaria 77 2 EU15+2 Maximum 76 3 EU10+1 Romania 66 6 EU10+1 Latvia 64 9 EU10+1 Lithuania 64 10 EU10+1 Czech Republic 61 13 EU10+1 Croatia 61 14 EU10+1 Slovakia 57 16 EU10+1 Slovenia 56 18 EU10+1 Poland 55 19 EU10+1 Hungary 41 24 EU15+2 Average 39 EU15+2 Minimum 0 35 TRUST IN PEOPLE Group Country Score Ranking EU15+2 Maximum 87 1 EU15+2 Average 59 EU10+1 Slovenia 57 12 EU10+1 Romania 54 15 EU10+1 Estonia 51 18 EU10+1 Poland 51 19 EU10+1 Lithuania 50 21 EU10+1 Croatia 48 22 EU10+1 Bulgaria 47 23 EU10+1 Czech Republic 44 26 EU10+1 Hungary 44 27 EU10+1 Slovakia 42 28 EU10+1 Latvia 41 30 EU15+2 Minimum 7 33
What if analysis useful 22
Marin Lessenski mlessenski@osi.bg www.eupi.eu www.thecatchupindex.eu 23