Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling for the Agricultural Sector Glenn S. Banaguas Environmental and Climate Change Research Institute De La Salle Araneta University Manila Observatory Ateneo De Manila University
GENERAL FRAMEWORK
TRACK
Tropical Cyclones
Monthly Analysis Model
RISK
Vulnerability is defined as a condition determined by physical, social, and economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. (e.g. Human Development Index) Vulnerability Exposure is the process by which a person comes into a contact with a hazard. (e.g. population) Hazard RISK R=H x E x V Elements of Risk Hazard a process or event that is potentially damaging in that it may result in loss of life or injury, loss of property, socioeconomic destruction or environmental degradation. Exposure
CONTROLLABLE INPUTS Probable Damaged Area Number of Hotspots Number of Elements Risk Assessment Monte Carlo Simulation/Modeling PROBABILISTIC INPUTS Indicator Duration 1 (α) MODEL Max θ = μ 11 + μ 12 + μ ij μ ij = indicator i assigned to j hotspots i = 1..n (number of iterations) j = 1 m (number of hotspots) α n β n +.. α n-1 β n-1 σ μ i1 + μ i2 +. μ ij ρ Duration 2 (β) Figure 2.2 Risk Simulation Model Optimum Number of Element
Variables: θ = n = α n = β n = μ ij = i = j = total number of indicator number of iterations random variable for probability distribution of first duration random variable for probability distribution of second duration indicator i assigned to j hotspots 1 to n (iterations to end) 1 to m ( hotspots) Objective Function Max the total number of indicator = n (total number of iterations) Max θ = μ 11 + μ 12 + μ ij Subject to: α n β n +.. α n-1 β n-1 σ (total number of period) μ i1 + μ i2 + μ ij ρ (total number of indicator) n, μ ij, α n, β n 0 (non-negativity)
Flowchart of Monte Carlo Modeling Next Iteration (n) Yes START MODEL PARAMETERS Max θ = μ 11 + μ 12 + μ ij μ ij = indicator i assigned to j hotspot i = 1..n (number of iterations) j = 1..m (number of hotspot) α n β n +.. α n-1 β n-1 σ μ i1 + μ i2 + μ ij ρ Generate (Poisson) for the indicator Generate (discrete) random numbers from the probability distribution month (α) Generate (discrete) random numbers from the probability distribution days (β) Total Number of Indicator n = α n β n +.. α n-1 β n-1 Is Total days n <= σ No # indicator = # of iterations STOP
Monte Carlo Simulation Output After 1000 replications per indicator, Table 3.1 as shown provides the summary of the simulation results Table 3.1 Summary of the Modeling Results
Risk Modelling using GIS
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
IMPACT
Agricultural areas that were damaged by the Tropical Cyclones
POLICY
Policies (a) the Republic Act 7160, which is also known as the Local Government Code (b) Republic Act 10121, which is the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act; and (c) the Republic Act 9729, which is the Climate Change Act.
EXAMPLE: Disaster Funds Allocation a. Present Calamity Funds Allocation (Section 324-d of Republic Act 7160 ; Section 21 Republic Act 10121; and Section 18 of Republic Act of 9729): 5% of the revenue Using the revenue allotment of 2009, Php 10,053,996.00, around Php 502, 699.80 is allotted to the Municipality of Cabusao Probable Affected Population Budget Allocation (Php for 1 day) Budget Allocation (Php for 5 days) 19,653 26.00 5.00 15,722 (80%) 32.00 6.00 11,791 (60%) 43.00 8.00 7,861 (40%) 64.00 13.00 3,930 (20%) 128.00 26.00
DRR-CCA-MDG Model
Aspects Infrastructure Capacity Building Policy New Practices Adaptation Alternatives Adaptation Alternatives Coastal resource management; sand pumping; river dredging; lining of river channel; installation of collectors, storm gates and pumps; construction of water gate; development of food storage facilities; rain gauge installation; Improve environmental education; build staff capacity and infrastructure to implement flood warning system; build capacity in weather forecasting; Hydroclimatic network monitoring; strengthen commodity value chains and find new markets; build knowledge and capacity in adaptation Design and implement zoning regulations and building codes; inter-sectoral allocation; facilitate access to credit; water conservation and demand management (including metering and price structure); compensation for flood damages; develop coastal resource management plans at the barangay levels Incorporation of risk assessment and mitigation information into microwatershed management plans; rainwater harvesting; documentation of best practices and case studies
Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation. a. Reviewing climate risk information available at the local level; b. Determining capacities for data collection and use; c. Undertaking wide risk profiling with a focus on vulnerable areas, sectors and groups; d. Reviewing the zoning and land use plan taking into account the danger areas.
Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. In the Philippines, it is not enough to have a warning gadget/device that will monitor the risks. The siren/warning device should provide sophisticated services such as full automation that will air 8 to 14 kilometers in order for the people to prepare in advance.
Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. Improved use of climate change/natural disaster information that requires more investment in a. networks of climate stations, b. capacity building for interpreting information, c. user-friendly forecasting tools and products d. linkages between service providers (researchers and hydro-meteorological services)
Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 4. Reduce the underlying risk factors a. Adapting agriculture, fisheries, and other industry practices through, for example, adjustment of crop and fishing calendars, and introduction of climate-resilient crop and tree varieties; b. Improving sustainable natural and coastal resource management to increase resilience of food production systems; c. Investing in infrastructure and hazard proofing critical facilities; d. Diversifying livelihoods through decreasing dependence on the usual activities, and increasing small-scale enterprise development.
Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels a. Expanded contingency planning, especially in areas prone to flood, windstorms or drought, that considers new and evolving risk scenarios and integrates the three (3B s) Build Back Better principles to induce prevention and adaptation in rehabilitation; b. More flexible funding mechanisms at the international level that allow development and humanitarian resources to be invested in preparedness; c. Preparedness for diversified livelihoods response options combined with social protection measures both to individuals and households ; d. Proper communication through responsible avenues with the use of TV and radio stations.
GAPS AND CONSTRAINTS
(a) the lack of sufficient normative frameworks (lack of political will to provide security, implementation capacity and limited public resources) b) structural limitation - increasing poverty incidence is highly sensitive issue that is marginalized in political discourse
CONCLUSION Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling provides a dynamic impetus that created a panorama of genesis, resiliency, and progress. The colossal figure of the meteorological hazard would continue to intensify in the future and would give immense bearing and massive impacts to the populace and to the agricultural assets. The uncovering issue of worst-case scenario might be idyllic due to its plausible outcome but should be dealt with apposite solution and recommendations.
Thank you. Take care. God bless us all.