Sensex (24492) / Nifty (7438) Yesterday, our markets opened on a subdued note as compared to Monday s close. Subsequently, we witnessed a range bound action within merely 60 points on Nifty throughout the session to conclude on a flat note. Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Technically speaking, we are not observing any major change in the chart structure, except, a positive crossover in RSI- Smoothened oscillator on daily chart. Considering this evidence, we maintain our view that the Nifty is likely to extend this bounce towards 7520 7550 levels. On the flipside, 7327 is now seen as an immediate support level for the index. The coming session may trade with enhanced volatility on account of January series derivative expiry on NSE. Thus, traders should make a note of it and accordingly, form your trading strategies for the day. Key Levels Support 1 7327 Resistance 1 7520 Support 2 7241 Resistance 2 7550 Bank Nifty Outlook - (15535) The Nifty Bank index opened with marginal gains and traded in a narrow range throughout the session. Eventually, the banking index ended the session with negligible losses of 0.17 percent over its previous close. Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart Although the index remained in a narrow range, we witnessed positive biasness in the PSU banking space which led to gains of 1.28% in Nifty PSU Bank index and thus it outperformed the benchmark. The rangebound movement in last couple of sessions just seems to be a pause within this pullback move. We are thus, expecting further upside in the Nifty Bank index in near term. Owing to F&O expiry slated today, we may see volatility in the stock specific moves and thus traders are advised to remain light on their positions with proper exit strategy. For short term trading, the crucial support for the index is placed around 15425 and 15270 whereas resistances are seen around 15765 and 16150. Key Levels Support 1 15425 Resistance 1 15765 Support 2 15270 Resistance 2 16150 1
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 16.63% BankNifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.54% as market closed at 7437.75 levels. The Nifty January future closed at a discount of 4.35 points against a discount of 0.70 points. The February series closed at a premium of 5.55 points. The Implied Volatility of at the money options has increased from 14.61% to 17.86 %. The total of the market is Rs. 2,66,296/- cr. and the stock futures is Rs. 65,858 /- cr. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are UNITECH, JPASSOCIAT, RELINFRA, GAIL and FEDERALBNK. Nifty Vs Views FIIs were net seller in both equity cash and Index future Gainers segment on Monday. They sold equities to the tune of Rs. 366 crores; while in Index Futures, they sold worth Rs. 619 crores with significant rise in, indicating short POWERGRID 27388000 33.18 138.45 3.79 build-up in last trading session. GODREJCP 302800 26.80 1148.55-0.46 In Index Options front, FII s were net buyers of Rs. 1051 KSCL 3533250 23.88 327.95-1.07 crores with marginal change in. In call options, 7450 INDUSINDBK 7515000 23.37 908.15 0.31 strike was active and they added some. Good amount ADANIPOWER 95520000 22.02 28.45 0.89 of unwinding was seen in 7600 call options. While in put options, 7400 strike added good amount of, followed Losers by unwinding in 7300 put option. Maximum build-up in current series is now visible in 7500 call and 7400 put options. We believe, we may not see any major fall or ARVIND 4170100-16.76 314.00-0.82 bounce in Nifty from current levels in January series. IOB 14392000-16.35 26.10 1.56 Nifty may test the resistance zone of 7500-7550 levels; MCLEODRUSS 3240600-15.10 148.65 2.62 one should book profits near these levels. UNIONBANK 16026000-14.01 130.50 10.17 APOLLOTYRE 9975000-13.97 145.55 2.36 Historical Volatility HV Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL DIVISLAB 31.40 POWERGRID 29.24 PIDILITIND 27.28 UNIONBANK 75.97 HINDZINC 46.93 NIFTY 0.83 0.87 BANKNIFTY 0.87 0.99 SBIN 0.34 0.40 RELIANCE 0.39 0.46 INFY 1.00 1.31 Strategy Date Symbol Strategy Status January 04, 2016 SBIN Ratio Bear Put Spread Loss booked on Jan 15, 2016 January 11, 2016 TCS Short Strangle Profit booked on Jan 18, 2016 January 18, 2016 HINDUNILVR Short Strangle Profit booked on Jan 25, 2016 January 25, 2016 TCS Long Call Didn t triggered 2
FII Statistics for 27-January 2015 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 7469.20 8088.53 (619.34) 357325 19321.25 14.98 36358.22 35306.41 1051.81 1638737 89786.70 (0.08) 24293.30 23441.03 852.27 1196417 53704.29 6.08 2200.72 2237.67 (36.95) 101637 4661.66 (1.23) TOTAL 70321.44 69073.65 1247.79 3294116 167473.90 3.54 Turnover on 27-January 2015 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 524106 27687.21 27.99 5590016 305781.04 11.45 1593655 72519.05 32.31 339775 16141.93-0.68 TOTAL 8047552 422129.23 15.00 Nifty Spot = 7437.75 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 7500 13.45 Sell 7600 2.85 10.60 89.40 7510.60 Buy 7400 24.30 Sell 7300 7.10 17.20 82.80 7382.80 Buy 7500 13.45 Sell 7700 0.85 12.60 187.40 7512.60 Buy 7400 24.30 Sell 7200 3.00 21.30 178.70 7378.70 Buy 7600 2.85 Sell 7700 0.85 2.00 98.00 7602.00 Buy 7300 7.10 Sell 7200 3.00 4.10 95.90 7295.90 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (Jan. Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis 3
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ACC 1,214 1,222 1,236 1,244 1,258 ADANIPORTS 211 213 217 219 222 AMBUJACEM 187 189 193 196 200 ASIANPAINT 179 182 184 187 189 AXISBANK 839 849 865 875 892 BAJAJ-AUTO 403 409 418 424 433 BANKBARODA 2,259 2,281 2,307 2,329 2,355 BHARTIARTL 123 126 129 132 135 BHEL 289 293 296 301 304 BOSCHLTD 135 137 142 144 148 BPCL 16,998 17,141 17,383 17,526 17,768 CAIRN 856 863 876 883 896 CIPLA 115 117 118 120 121 COALINDIA 565 573 580 588 596 DRREDDY 295 300 303 307 310 GAIL 2,870 2,921 2,952 3,003 3,034 GRASIM 345 352 357 364 369 HCLTECH 3,372 3,398 3,441 3,467 3,509 HDFC 825 831 836 841 846 HDFCBANK 1,147 1,158 1,173 1,185 1,200 HEROMOTOCO 1,023 1,030 1,039 1,045 1,055 HINDALCO 2,429 2,456 2,502 2,529 2,575 HINDUNILVR 70 70 72 72 74 ICICIBANK 755 762 773 779 790 IDEA 233 235 237 240 242 INDUSINDBK 105 107 109 111 113 INFY 864 886 902 924 940 ITC 1,126 1,132 1,141 1,147 1,156 KOTAKBANK 304 309 311 316 319 LT 658 667 674 683 691 LUPIN 1,085 1,096 1,109 1,121 1,134 M&M 1,626 1,658 1,691 1,723 1,756 MARUTI 1,127 1,152 1,175 1,200 1,223 NTPC 4,041 4,076 4,128 4,163 4,215 ONGC 136 140 142 146 148 PNB 214 216 219 221 224 POWERGRID 89 91 93 95 97 RELIANCE 131 135 137 141 143 SBIN 989 994 1,002 1,007 1,015 VEDL 62 63 64 65 67 SUNPHARMA 804 813 818 827 832 TATAMOTORS 329 333 337 341 345 TATAPOWER 60 61 62 62 63 TATASTEEL 250 254 257 261 263 TCS 2,262 2,291 2,311 2,339 2,359 TECHM 492 498 507 512 521 ULTRACEMCO 2,714 2,733 2,759 2,778 2,804 WIPRO 539 546 550 557 562 YESBANK 656 667 676 687 696 ZEEL 391 394 396 399 402 4
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