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1 Major Index Symbol Spot Future Basis R1 S1 June. RANK BANKNIFTY 11, , ,8 11, CNXIT 6, , ,75 6, NFTYMCAP5 1, , ,925 1, NIFTY 5, , ,92 5, BANKNIFTY CNXIT NFTYMCAP5 NIFTY June. 6mth AVG. s in NIFTY futures lower than last month with NIFTY rolls at 47, lower than 6-month average of 59, also in value terms, it is at 7275 Cr. versus 1138 Cr. (NIFTY was down by 7 in last series, number of shares also have decreased to 127 lakh versus 185 lakh shares). On other hand, market wide roll also lower at 74 in value terms Cr which is more than last month 2862 Cr., (in share terms also decline, along with stocks have lost 5-1 on price chart) leading to overall position of Cr Vs Cr. (lower than last month, and also lowest in last six month) in futures positions, however is at.13 which is lower than last month even after adjusting dividend cost is declining, also lower than 6mth. of.46, with NIFTY cost at.8 (which is much lower than.39. of 6 months),as a result Arbitrage trades have seen unwinding. Also, NIFTY/STOCK Fut. ratio has come down to.22 (last month.26), implies market participants have taken bets on individual stocks and not on Index. Nifty front PCR_OI opened at 1.8 above 1 (last month 1.7), highest level at open in last 6 months (stable zones); with 56 PE having highest OI across options as 6 lakh, (19 lakh shares add on Thursday), implying PE writers are convinced NIFTY will find support around ; on resistance side CE OI is at 58 and 59 (37 and 33 lakh shares), implying will be crucial resistance zone; Index options positions also has reduced to Cr (last month Cr) clearly can be attributed to hedging being reduced positive for market. We feel in short term Nifty trading range would be , as we enter the JULY Series. Among stock futures lot of sectors have shown mixed sentiment, implying it will be Stock Specific market with in a sector also some stocks are showing more strength than others; some of the sectors that can help Index to gain further in the JULY. Series, all OIL & GAS (heavy weights), FINANCE (HSG. FIN.) and IT should be watched carefully as they have shown C-o-C improve heavy weights. On other hand, sectors which might underperform are CAP.GOODS, AUTO, METALS, BANKING (PVT. Banks may OUTPERFORM) and INFRASTRUCTURE. Page No: 1

2 Sectors Data Sector June. s 6mth Avg. Automobile Banking Capital Goods Cement Fertilisers Finance FMCG Infrastructure Media Metals Oil & Gas Pharma Power Realty Technology Telecom Textile Automobile Banking Capital Goods Cement Fertilisers Finance FMCG Infrastructure Media Metals Oil & Gas Pharma Power Realty Technology Telecom Textile June. s 6mnth Avg. Page No: 2

3 AUTOMOBILE Symbol Spot (M- O-M) JUNE. APOLLOTYRE (37.24) ASHOKLEY (18.89) 19.3 (.45) (2.28).87 5 BAJAJ-AUTO 1, , (41.25) 1, (2.24).48 2 BHARATFORG (8.26) EXIDEIND 12.2 (13.12) HEROMOTOCO 1, (5.88) 1,599.8 (48.65) 1, (2.95) (.7) 2 M&M (7.7) (8.7) (.93).5 3 MARUTI 1,521.2 (7.1) 1, , MRF 12,524.1 (16.54) 12, , TATAMOTORS 27.3 (14.75) TATAMTRDVR (21.86) RANK APOLLOTYRE ASHOKLEY BAJAJ-AUTO BHARATFORG EXIDEIND HEROMOTOCO M&M MARUTI MRF TATAMOTORS TATAMTRDVR JUNE. AUTOMOBILE sector in line with 6-month. at 77, above market wide limit of 74. Both Two Wheeler stocks worth watching are: BAJAJAUTO rolls well below. at 64 with better than 6mth. technically, the stock is trying to form a bottom around will act as support (2 DMA.), one should accumulate on dips till holds above it, stock to retest levels of i.e. 2 DMA, any technical correction should be used to enter. HEROMOTO rolls at 75 well above 6-month. (with cost improve), implying long rolls; the stock has closed above stiff resistance zone, i.e. 5 DMA If holds above 1615, we expect it to test 1745 levels i.e. 2 DMA. all AUTO sector saw majority of counters cost decline, expect the sector to be market under performer and technical rebound should be used to exit, especially Mid Caps. Page No: 3

4 BANKING Symbol Spot JUNE. ALBK 88.5 (29.39) (.79) 3 ANDHRABANK 78.4 (1.81) (4.45) (5.68).83 3 AXISBANK 1,275.5 (11.) 1, (12.4) 1, (.97).24 1 BANKBARODA (17.38) (.2) 2 BANKINDIA (25.59) (.24) 3 CANBK (18.18) (1.75) (3.8).3 3 DENABANK 66. (23.79) (.24) 3 FEDERALBNK (11.64) (4.2) (1.5).52 2 HDFCBANK (1.85) ICICIBANK 1,3.55 (12.87) 1, , IDBI (16.62) INDUSINDBK (13.84) IOB 48.3 (22.1) KOTAKBANK 72.1 (12.22) KTKBANK 18.6 (23.74) ORIENTBANK (22.32) (.23) 3 PNB (2.33) SBIN 1,912.5 (8.43) 1, , SYNDIBANK 15.1 (2.23) (.24) 3 UCOBANK 58.1 (26.13) UNIONBANK 178. (23.9) (.23) 3 VIJAYABANK (17.42) (.3) 3 YESBANK (11.34) ALBK ANDHRABANK AXISBANK BANKBARODA BANKINDIA CANBK DENABANK FEDERALBNK HDFCBANK ICICIBANK IDBI INDUSINDBK JUNE. IOB KOTAKBANK KTKBANK ORIENTBANK 6mth. PNB SBIN SYNDIBANK UCOBANK UNIONBANK VIJAYABANK YESBANK BANKING sector witnessed below.76 Vs. 77, better than market wide rolls, with Banking stocks showing C- o-c mixed sentiments, above. rolls, implying one has to do stock picking, stocks showing signs of Long, with stocks such as AXISBK saw below average roll of 62 (with cost improving, imply Short Squeeze) versus. of 69. The stock has moved above resistance zone, till stays above may retest higher levels of HDFCBK also showing rolls below. at 5 versus 58 with C-o-C improve implying short squeeze. Stock is forming strong bottom , if crosses and sustains above i.e. 2 DMA expect a technical rally till 685 i.e. 5 DMA. all sentiment still bearish oversold may see rebound, for long trade focus on Large Cap PVT. Bank. Page No: 4

5 CEMENT Symbol Spot JUNE 6 mth ACC 1,22.7 (3.32) 1, (3.55) 1, (.3).28 2 AMBUJACEM (.11) (.5) (.3).32 4 CENTURYTEX (13.41) (3.25) (1.29).81 5 GRASIM 2,754.9 (6.66) 2, (3.75) 2, (.14).74 3 INDIACEM (18.79) JPASSOCIAT 51.5 (23.64) ULTRACEMCO 1,877.6 (5.56) 1,843.8 (33.8) 1, (1.8) ACC AMBUJACEM CENTURYTEX GRASIM INDIACEM JPASSOCIAT ULTRACEMCO JUNE CEMENT sector below 6-month. rolls at 69, also below market wide rolls of 75 (with cost improve) implying stocks have seen short covering: AMBUJA rolls at 56 well below. of 62; however with cost improve implying short squeeze, technically the stock has formed a strong support band, once it crosses above buy on dips expect to retest levels, i.e. 2 DMA. ACC counter which saw below. rolls at 54 (below last month) with C-o-C improve short squeeze, Technically, the stock has formed a strong bottom , managed to close above resistance level (2 DMA is placed), once moves above i.e. 5 DMA expect a run up to all the sector seems to be find support at lower levels, we expect sector to be market out performer. Page No: 5

6 CAPITAL GOODS Symbol Spot JUNE 6 mth 6 mth BHEL (2.72) (.86) 3 CROMPGREAV 8.2 (16.8) LT 1,35.4 (5.4) 1, , PUNJLLOYD 33.2 (26.14) (.41) 5 SIEMENS (1.89) VOLTAS (7.46) BHEL CROMPGREAV LT PUNJLLOYD SIEMENS VOLTAS JUNE CAPITAL GOODS sector saw a pickup in rolls at 6-month. rolls at 8, however above the market wide rolls of 75. Stocks that should be kept on radar are: LARSEN rolls at 55 below its. of 71, with roll cost decline, implying long unwind Technically, stock has closed below 2 DMA at zones, one should sell on rise till holds below these levels, once it breaks below , can retest levels. SIEMENS witness above. rolls at 85, with C-o-C improve, implying long s with stock forming a strong support around and closing at 1 DMA levels , In short-term if it manages to cross and sustain above it can retest levels i.e. 5 DMA, will touch 617 in short term all the sector will be a market under performer, as heavy weights show weak sentiments. Page No: 6

7 FERTILIZER Symbol Spot JUNE. CHAMBLFERT TATACHEM UNIPHOS CHAMBLFERT TATACHEM UNIPHOS JUNE. 6mth Avg. FERTILIZERS sector has seen short rolls, above 6-month. 89, with C-o-C giving signals of selling pressure emerging UNIPHOS roll well above. at 94 (short rolls as cost decline) with stock closing below levels, i.e. 5 DMA which will act as resistance zone, if stays below can retest a target of i.e. 2 DMA. all expect the sector to be a market under performer as clearly shorts rolled. Page No: 7

8 FINANCE JUNE. cost HDFC (9.62) IDFC (17.71) (1.55) (1.23).57 5 IFCI 22.2 (14.94) LICHSGFIN (8.) (1.2) (.48).74 3 PFC (27.48) RELCAPITAL (3.7) SRTRANSFIN (1.73) HDFC IDFC IFCI LICHSGFIN JUNE. PFC 6mth Avg. RELCAPITAL SRTRANSFIN FINANCE sector saw a drop in rolls at 77 below. 78, above market wide rolls, with C-o-C flat to positive, showing sector seeing supportive buying: SRITRANSFIN for 3 rd month has seen above. rolls at 76 (lower than last month, above 6mth. with higher cost), implying long rolled, stock has consolidated and managed to hold above levels of 72-73, where 2 DMA is placed, if holds above these levels, expect to test levels. HDFC has witnessed below average roll 5 with pos M-o-M, with stock rebounding from , will act a strong bottom, immediate resistance (i.e. 5 DMA), if manages to cross expect to test levels. all the financial sector seeing supportive buying especially NBFC and Housing Finance companies. Page No: 8

9 FMCG (M- O-M) JUNE ASIANPAINT 4,538.1 (7.64) 4, , BATAINDIA (2.52) COLPAL 1,336.8 (8.39) 1, , DABUR (1.94) GODREJIND 36.2 (.13) 35.9 (.3) (.1).66 2 HINDUNILVR (1.11) (22.35) (3.79).46 4 ITC (9.2) MCDOWELL-N 2,222. (8.93) 2, , MCLEODRUSS (8.91) (4.15) (1.53).65 3 TATAGLOBAL (12.64) TITAN (25.98) (.7) (.31) ASIANPAINT BATAINDIA COLPAL DABUR GODREJIND HINDUNILVR ITC MCDOWELL-N MCLEODRUSS TATAGLOBAL TITAN JUNE 6mth Avg. FMCG sector saw a decline in rolls, well below 6-month. 71 well below market wide, with of Carry of counters mixed: COLPAL saw rolls of 81 (better than last month) with cost showing a jump, technically stock has formed a strong bottom levels, one should trade with positive bias once it cross and sustain above i.e. 2 DMA levels expect to retest further north levels of levels. GODREJIND has seen below. roll 71 with increase in implying shorts squeeze, stock has given fresh break out above levels, i.e. 2 and 5 DMA, expect to retest levels with a SL of 29. all the sector may be a market performer, Mid Caps looking much strong. Page No: 9

10 INFRASTRUCTURE JUNE GMRINFRA (16.91) IRB (21.97) GMRINFRA IRB JUNE 6mth AVG. INFRASTRUCTURE stocks saw a pickup in rolls at 92, well above its 6-month average, with the majority of counters C-o-C dip, implying short s. GMRINFRA showing above. rolls of 89 with C-o-C decline, implying short rolls, with stock closing at 52 week low levels, if continues to remain below and face resistance at 19 next test below 16.5, 14 levels. We continue our stance on the sector to market underperformer with majority stocks witnessing short s; in short term expect more correction. Page No: 1

11 MEDIA JUNE DISHTV 6.4 (8.21) SUNTV (12.4) ZEEL (.35) (.15) DISHTV SUNTV ZEEL JUNE MEDIA sector has seen a decline below 6mth. rolls at 77, in line with market wide. ZEETV have seen aggressive above. rolls of 86 also with cost showing a jump with stock managing to move and sustain above level closing above 5 DMA 233, till it trades above 224 one should accumulate for a price target of all the sector has seen supportive buying from lower levels, we expect sector to be market performer. Page No: 11

12 METALS JUNE. HINDALCO 95.8 (1.34) HINDZINC (17.84) JINDALSTEL (32.8) JSWSTEEL (1.4) (6.) (.93).25 5 NMDC 1.55 (15.68) SAIL (17.95) SESAGOA (12.21) (.35) (.25).44 3 STER (13.17) TATASTEEL (12.43) 258. (6.15) (2.33) HINDALCO HINDZINC JINDALSTEL JSWSTEEL NMDC SAIL SESAGOA STER TATASTEEL JUNE. 6mth AVG. METALS have shown an increase in rolls above 6-month average at 82. JSWSTEEL saw better than. rolls at 84 (decline M-o-M), with cost decline, with stock closing below levels weekly support, sell on rise it stays below zone, expect it to retest next support level of levels. Another stock to watch for STER rolls above. at 89 with cost improving stock has formed a strong bottom support zone, manage to close at 8 levels, once it sustains above it expect to retest 9-91 levels. all the sector has seen cost decline shorts rolled, expect some pull back as oversold in short term, technical rebound should be used to exit, we expect sector to be underperforming. Page No: 12

13 OIL & GAS JUNE. BPCL (9.92) CAIRN (4.55) (1.58).79 2 GAIL (6.68) GSPL 53.5 (8.38) HINDPETRO (14.61) IGL (5.27) IOC (24.13) ONGC (4.9) PETRONET (16.29) RELIANCE 83. (.81) BPCL CAIRN GAIL GSPL HINDPETRO IGL IOC ONGC PETRONET RELIANCE JUNE. 6mth AVG. OIL & GAS saw shade below. rolls, at 74 with the stocks seeing C-O-C improve sector witness stock specific supportive buying from lower levels ONGC saw below. rolls at 46 with cost increase, the stock has managed to hold and rebound from crucial support levels and managed to close at 32, with 5 DMA present at 323, till it trades above 3 i.e. 2 DMA support level, expect stock to move higher levels RIL also saw below. rolls at 56 with positive C-O-C, implying short squeeze, stock managed close above crucial resistance levels zones coinciding point of 2 and 2 DMA placed there, if continues to hold above support levels expect to test next stiff resistance levels of all the sector heavy weights showing some signs of supportive buying emerging. Page No: 13

14 PHARMA JUNE AUROPHARMA BIOCON (5.15) (1.87).74 3 CIPLA DIVISLAB , DRREDDY 2, ,158.1 (1.15) 2, (.5).7 2 LUPIN OPTOCIRCUI 19.3 (62.1) (1.58) 4 RANBAXY (16.81) SUNPHARMA (9.55) , AUROPHARMA BIOCON CIPLA DIVISLAB DRREDDY JUNE LUPIN 6mth AVG OPTOCIRCUI RANBAXY SUNPHARMA PHARMA stocks have seen a pickup in rolls at 69 with C-o-C of the majority of stocks positive suggesting stock have seen short covering: SUNPHARMA rolls at 67 versus 73 (6-month.) with C-o-C improve imply long rolls, technically, the stock has rebounded from zone thus forming a strong bottom, one should buy aggressively till it holds and sustains above for a target of CIPLA also saw below average rolls to the tune of 72 (much lower than last month) with C-o-C improving, implying short squeeze with price charts suggesting strength, with stock holding above levels (where 1 and 2 DMA is placed), immediate target where 5 and 2 DMA is placed. all the sector will be market performer, should be a buyer at every dip in two Large Caps. Page No: 14

15 POWER June. ADANIPOWER 4.15 (31.43) 4.5 (.1) (.25).62 2 CESC (5.35) (1.61).7 5 JPPOWER (24.8) JSWENERGY (23.6) 41.7 (1.85) (4.25).81 2 NHPC (8.27) NTPC 14.3 (1.41) (.31) 5 POWERGRID (6.86) PTC (2.89) RECLTD (16.47) RELINFRA (13.88) RPOWER (14.89) TATAPOWER 81.4 (9.71) ADANIPOWER CESC JPPOWER JSWENERGY NHPC NTPC POWERGRID PTC RECLTD RELINFRA RPOWER TATAPOWER June. 6mth AVG. POWER stocks saw below six month. rolls at 7, below than the market wide, with stocks C-o-C mixed, clearly suggesting stock specific approach required: JPPOWER witness above. rollover of 83, with improve, implying long roll; stock has formed a strong support base at , also closed above where short term resistance is placed, till the time it holds above support level, test higher levels of REC 87 above average, with C-o-C improve, stock has rebounded forming a strong support at level of , closing back above , if sustains above it and once cross above 196 i.e. 2 DMA can retest next resistance levels of all the sector may be a marker performer; with stocks showing mixed sentiment especially select Mid Cap witness supportive buying returning back. Page No: 15

16 REALITY Future Bais TGT JUNE DLF (14.36) HDIL 35.2 (21.8) (.55) (1.56) (.54) 2 IBREALEST 6.5 (19.77) UNITECH (16.7) DLF HDIL IBREALEST UNITECH JUNE 6mth AVG. REALTY Sector has seen above. rolls at 81, with C-O-C recovering from lower levels suggesting supportive buying emerging in some stocks: HDIL 81 positions rolled, above. along with cost improve, long rolled and bottoming out on chart as stock closing above DMA, if manages to cross above 37 buy aggressively, expect to retest higher levels levels. DLF also saw roll of 77 above. with cost improve month on month; with a stock rebounding from a long term support of , if moves above and sustain , expect it to move north to levels. all expect the sector seeing some supportive buying, expect perform in line with NIFTY. Page No: 16

17 TECHNOLOGY JUNE FINANTECH (1.5) HCLTECH HEXAWARE INFY 2, , , OFSS 2, , , TCS 1,491.9 (.5) 1, (5.75) 1, (.39).16 2 TECHM 1, ,74.5 (6.75) 1, (.62).35 3 WIPRO FINANTECH HCLTECH HEXAWARE INFY OFSS TCS TECHM WIPRO JUNE 6mth ROLLS TECHNOLOGY sector rolls higher than market wide at 78, better than its 6-month average, two stocks worth looking at HEXAWARE has shown 86 in line with six month. with C-o-C improve (higher than last month), implying long rolled, Technically, the stock has rebounded from crucial support levels 79-8 i.e. 2 DMA, and closed above i.e. 5 DMA, buy on dips with Target price of 94 i.e. 2 DMA Large Cap TCS saw above. rollover of 8 with improve; signals of Long roll technically stock has closed above crucial resistance zone levels of and 5 DMA, till it hold above these support levels it can head towards all the sector has seen supportive buying in form of long positions rolled. Sector will be market outperformer, with Large Caps TCS also showing aggressive rolls. Page No: 17

18 TELECOM June. BHARTIARTL (1.99) IDEA RCOM (2.3) (1.99).65 3 TATACOMM (27.82) (1.25) (.82) BHARTIARTL IDEA June. 6mth AVG. RCOM TATACOMM TELECOM sector showing a drop in roll, below 6-month average and, also below the market wide at 69 rolls. BHARTI saw below. roll of 58 (with cost flat), imply long unwind with stock has facing stiff resistance around levels of 3-33 where 5 and 2 DMA was placed, till holds below this zone, will retest levels, below 268 weakness will persist and BHARTI With stocks in sector suggesting long unwind, Telecom may be market under performer as long formed seen to be exiting at higher levers any exposure towards telecom one should trim down position on rise. Page No: 18

19 TEXTILES June ABIRLANUVO 1,27.3 (3.81) 1, ARVIND 76.5 (6.65) 75.4 (1.1) (1.44).8 4 PANTALOONR 89.6 (35.1) RAYMOND (16.11) ABIRLANUVO ARVIND PANTALOONR RAYMOND June 6mth AVG. TEXTILE sector saw flat rolls at 84 however, well above market wide at 75, mainly due to pure textile play stocks like: ARVIND saw better below. rolls of 85 ( decline.) some selling pressure with stock receding from resistance 8-81; and closed at crucial support where 52 week low is placed; if it move below this level expect sell off to test levels. all sector seeing long unwinding, will be a market under performer. Page No: 19

20 DIVERSIFIED M-O-M JUNE ADANIENT (13.64) ADANIPORTS (3.17) COALINDIA (12.33) HAVELLS (1.74) (3.3) 3 INDHOTEL 47.5 (9.95) (.5) (.1) 1. 3 JISLJALEQS 52.5 (25.5) JUBLFOOD 1,36.15 (6.27) 1, , RENUKA 15.3 (29.49) SINTEX (21.39) ADANIENT ADANIPORTS COALINDIA HAVELLS JUNE 6mth AVG. INDHOTEL JISLJALEQS JUBLFOOD Among Diversified as we can see, stocks have seen in line with. rolls, with cost flat to positive implying short covering and supportive buying seen in stocks like ADANIENT, which have seen below above. M-O-M to the tune of 58 versus 83, with C-o-C improve, suggesting short squeeze, also with stock closing at resistance zone , immediate support treat as a SL expect to retest resistance levels 213. Page No: 2

21 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head Derivatives Desk Fundamental Team Akhil Jain Metals & Mining/Mid Caps Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps Sumit Jatia Banking & Finance Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate Dinesh Kumar Information Technology/Auto Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst Quantitative Team Jyoti Nangrani Sr. Technical Analyst Sudeep Shah Technical Analyst Advisory Support Indranil Dutta Advisory Desk HNI Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk Sandeep Pandey Advisory Desk ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR Page No: 21

22 Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person.persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither (ABML) nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision., its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions. Page No: 22