The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 216

5 Introduction The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 1 16 Global fundamentals Meeting growing demand 17 Transportation 26 Residential and commercial 32 Industrial 4 Electricity generation The Outlook for Energy is our long-term global view of energy demand and supply. Its findings help guide our long-term investments, and we share The Outlook to help promote better understanding of the issues shaping the world s energy future.

48 54 7 Lowering emissions Fulfilling future supply Energy today and tomorrow 58 Liquids 64 Natural gas 72 Data 78 Glossary

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Energy today Energy is integral to our lives in the 21st century. Energy keeps us warm, cools us down, and cooks our meals. It helps us connect with our children, and lights the garages and labs of entrepreneurs and inventors building a better world. Energy harvests our food, fuels our factories, builds our cities, and cleans our water. It keeps us mobile and connected with others near and far. The 21st century already has witnessed major changes in how people use energy for example, Internet-connected smartphones were introduced only around 2; today there are more than 2.5 billion of them worldwide. This century also has seen tremendous advances in energy technology including the ones that unlocked North America s vast resources of unconventional oil and natural gas. Together, these technologies have ushered in a new era of energy abundance and diversity. Today, our energy can come from deep below the ocean floor, beds of shale rock, nuclear fission, biofuels, the wind and the sun. And importantly, development and use of each of these energy sources continues to evolve in ways that reduce impacts on the environment. Another positive trend is our ability to find ways to use energy far more efficiently, curbing growth in energy usage and emissions. The world uses about 1 percent less energy per unit of economic output than it did in 2, with half of this gain occurring since 21. Still, the need for energy remains vast. Global demand for energy rose by about one-third from 2 to 214, with China accounting for about half of this growth. Meeting growing energy demand is an ongoing challenge, recognizing the scale of supplies required to meet the needs of 7 billion people each day. The use of oil alone representing just one-third of the world s energy consumption is now approaching 95 million barrels a day, enough to power a car 1 billion miles, or 4 million times around the world. Several themes remain true today: Modern energy is fundamental to our standards of living; practical options for meeting people s energy needs continue to expand, including those related to efficiency; and the energy industry is huge, growing and connecting regions through trade. While energy supplies are evolving, fundamentals on the demand side have been undergoing their own dynamics. Many economies continue to struggle, even more than five years after the global recession, while others, including that of China, continue to expand significantly, albeit at a more modest pace. Even so, global economic output has risen about 5 percent since 2, with better living standards for hundreds of millions of people. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 5

Energy tomorrow Over The Outlook period to 24, consumers and businesses will drive an ongoing evolution in energy needs, shaped by waves of economic growth and advances in technology. At the same time, both supply and demand will be affected by a wide range of government policies, including ones that seek to expand access to modern energy and those that aim to reduce the risks of global climate change. In this time frame, we expect oil, natural gas and coal to continue to meet about 8 percent of global demand. For a century, these sources have been the foundation of the modern energy that has enabled modern living. Today, they remain abundant, reliable and affordable, and available on the scale required to serve 7 billion people 24 hours a day. Still, significant changes are coming. The biggest expected growth will be in natural gas, which provides a practical energy solution for many applications while also providing a significant cost advantage versus other options to help reduce climate change risks. Renewable energy and nuclear power also are expected to see significant growth over this period, together accounting for about two-thirds of the increase in energy demand for power generation. Policies to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increasingly influence the energy landscape. In our view, after rising more than 5 percent from 199 to 214, global energy-related CO 2 emissions will likely peak around 23. We expect the member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), where CO 2 emissions are declining, to lead this shift. However, China will also play a significant role as its emissions peak around 23. We see this global shift being enabled in large part by substantial gains in energy efficiency in all regions. With strong gains in energy efficiency and significant changes in the world s energy mix driven by economics and climate policies we expect the CO 2 intensity of the global economy to be cut in half by 24. Thanks to economic development opportunities powered by abundant energy, we see the world standing at the cusp of decades of enormous growth and better living standards for billions of people. The period to 24 is expected to reflect a dramatic expansion of the world s population and the global middle class. Living conditions will improve as millions of people gain access to electricity, which will lead to benefits such as better education and modern healthcare. From 214 to 24, we see global demand for energy rising by 25 percent. This increase is equivalent to the total energy used in North America and Latin America today. We expect energy demand growth to be led by a 45 percent increase across non-oecd countries, while demand in OECD countries will be essentially flat. Energy efficiency will play a huge role in slowing the growth in global demand, as energy use per unit of economic output is likely to fall by 4 percent. 6

To keep pace with demand, the world will need to pursue all economic energy sources. In 24, oil and natural gas will likely be nearly 6 percent of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching a 25 percent share. We can expect that new technologies will continue to create new energy options for our growing world. We don t know yet what all those technologies will be, but history tells us that the best ones will be affordable, available on a commercial scale, and not overly reliant on government support. Enabling these technologies will require policies that promote innovation, investments and free trade. One of the constants in life is change. Another is energy. By understanding the trends described in The Outlook, we can better anticipate how much and which kinds of energy the world will need in the future. This insight helps guide our investments as we work to help safely meet the world s need for affordable, reliable energy the energy that helps create and add value to modern living for people everywhere. Base year switches to 214 This year s Outlook forecasts growth in energy demand of about 25 percent from 214 to 24. The use of 214 as the base year in this year s report is a change from recent Outlooks, which used 21. We made this adjustment to help provide a better perspective on expected changes in energy demand and supply to 24, since energy markets have evolved quite a bit since 21. For comparison, this year s Outlook also forecasts energy demand growth of about 35 percent from 21 to 24, consistent with recent Outlooks. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 7

Developing nations will lead gains in GDP and living standards Our energy to 24: Seven things to know While developed economies still enjoy the world s highest standards of living, we expect that China, India and many other nations will see strong growth in GDP and living standards to 24. Not coincidentally, developing nations also are expected to lead the world in energy demand growth. Modern energy is one of mankind s most complex endeavors, and its path is shaped by countless forces. However, we see seven key themes that will play a major role in defining our global energy landscape through 24. Per capita income in OECD nations is expected to rise by almost 6 percent 214-24; non-oecd nations rise about 135%. Energy is fundamental to standards of living As incomes rise, billions of people in developing nations will rise into the middle class; many of them will be able to afford amenities that already are commonplace elsewhere, such as temperature-controlled homes, cars, and appliances like refrigerators, washing machines and computers. 8 In 214, there were about 1 cars per 1 people in China. By 24, this is expected to rise to about 3. Economics and policies will impact the energy mix Increasingly, the mix of fuels that consumers use to meet their energy needs will be reshaped by economics and government policies, especially those aimed at reducing CO2 emissions associated with energy use. In general, demand will shift toward cleaner fuels like natural gas, renewables and nuclear. The share of the world s electricity that is generated by coal will likely drop to about 3 percent in 24, from over 4 percent in 214.

Natural gas grows more than any other energy source Demand for natural gas is growing rapidly in part because it is the cleanest-burning major fuel. Gas also is abundant and versatile; it is used heavily in the power generation and industrial sectors, and also is emerging as a fuel for certain types of transportation. Technology has the highest potential and the greatest uncertainty Advances in technology have tremendous potential to help meet our energy and environmental goals, but the pace of change is difficult to predict. Recent breakthroughs in unconventional oil and gas production are already reshaping the world s energy supply. There is also significant emphasis on technology advances to improve energy efficiency and the prospects for batteries, renewables and nuclear power. 4% of the growth in global energy demand from 214-24 is projected to be met by natural gas. Oil will remain the world s primary fuel We expect oil to continue to be the world s leading fuel, driven by demand for transportation fuels and by the chemical industry, where oil provides the feedstock to make plastics and other advanced materials. 1/3 of the world s energy is expected to be provided by oil in 24. CO2 intensity of the global economy to be cut in half We expect that as economies continue to grow, improved efficiency and lower-carbon fuels will mean that by 24, the amount of energy-related CO2 emissions associated with a dollar of global GDP will have dropped by half. Global average fuel economy for light-duty vehicles is expected to improve by 8%. Global energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to peak by about 23 and then begin declining. 9

Global fundamentals What will the world s energy needs look like in 24 and beyond? Answering this question begins with recognizing the fundamental forces that continue to shape long-term energy trends in nations around the world. These forces include population growth, demographic shifts and economic expansion. Through 24, we see China, India and other non- OECD countries home to seven-eighths of the world s population needing much more energy to fuel economic development and rising living standards. On the other hand, the U.S., Europe and other OECD nations will see declines in overall energy demand and emissions, even as their economic output continues to grow. All around the world, we expect energy efficiency to continue to improve, and a greater share of demand to be met by cleaner fuels. In part, these gains will be the result of governments and consumers seeking to meet their demand for energy while also addressing the risks of climate change. 1

The world s demand for energy is driven by many factors, but the two biggest are population and economic growth. By 24, the world s population will have reached 9 billion up from about 7.2 billion today and global GDP will have more than doubled. This growth will create more need for affordable, reliable energy energy for homes, transportation, business and industry. We see global energy demand rising by about 25 percent from 214 to 24. This is a significant increase, but would have been far higher (exceeding 11 percent) if we did not foresee steep improvements in energy efficiency across all demand sectors. China and India lead growth in energy demand Although energy demand worldwide is projected to rise by 25 percent, global totals can be misleading because trends will vary greatly by nation. We anticipate some developed economies to see net declines in overall energy demand through 24. We believe that at this point in time, the future of energy is best understood by looking at three distinct groups of nations: China and India. By 24, India will have passed China as the world s most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. China and India also lead the developing world in raising standards of living and achieving technology improvements. Both nations are starting to take steps toward adopting additional policies on energy and climate change. Together, we see China and India accounting for almost half the projected growth in global energy demand to 24. A group of 1 Key Growth countries whose rising populations and living standards will drive strong increases in energy demand. This group comprises Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia. Collectively, these 1 nations account for about 3 percent of the projected growth in energy demand through 24. OECD32 is a group of developed nations including the United States and all other OECD members except Mexico and Turkey, which we include in Key Growth. Already enjoying relatively high living standards and widespread use of advanced technology, these economies are expected to expand at a relatively moderate pace, while their populations remain stable. OECD32 nations have some of the most aggressive policies on improving efficiency and curbing emissions. Energy demand in the OECD32 group is expected to decline by 5 percent from 214 to 24. While population and GDP are reliable indicators of a country s energy demand, they don t tell the whole story. We also need to look at the citizens themselves. Are they young or old? Rich or poor? Living in a modern city or a rural community? The answers to these questions help determine how much a country s economy will grow, and how much energy its citizens will need. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 11

Long-term trends in demographics, productivity and income Countries with a relatively high percentage of working-age citizens (ages 15 to 64) tend to have faster economic growth, provided there are sufficient job opportunities in those economies. A relatively large working-age group is an important factor supporting future economic growth in India, the Key Growth group and other developing nations. On the other hand, aging populations will continue to pose a challenge to economic growth in the OECD32. Aging will also impact China s potential growth. By 24, more than 2 percent of China s population will be age 65 or older, up from just 9 percent today. But for people and families everywhere, what matters most economically is incomes and the living standards those incomes can support. A simple measure of income is GDP per capita. Through 24, per capita GDP will rise widely across the globe, but we expect that the gains will be strongest in the non-oecd, particularly China and India. By 24, per capita income in China and India is expected to be more than three times today s level; in Key Growth countries, it will be on average almost twice as high. Because of these rising incomes, we expect the world to see the largest expansion of the global middle class in history. The Brookings Institution estimates that the number of people earning enough to be considered middle class will grow from just over 2 billion in 214 to nearly 5 billion in 23, with most of the growth centered in India and China. At the same time, China, India and other developing nations continue to experience the urbanization shift that permeated the developed world in the 2th century. By 24, close to 65 percent of the world s population will live in cities, up from under 55 percent today. These shifts in developing nations are expected to have significant impacts on energy demand. As people rise into the middle class and move from rural to city settings, their per capita consumption of modern energy tends to increase rapidly. This growth is tied to a wide range of uses everything from refrigerators to cars to office buildings to the energy needed to manufacture consumer goods. 25% increase in energy demand by 24. That s like adding another North and Latin America. 12

Near-term dynamics in the global economy and energy market In 29, the world economy experienced the worst global recession in the post-world War II years. Since then, apart from an initial rebound in 21, recovery has been slow and uneven across various regions of the world. Today, there are limited signs of improvement in developed economies, led by the United States. On the other hand, there have been economic headwinds coming from developing countries, including slowing growth in China, and declines in the prices of commodities, including energy, upon which many developing economies depend. Times like these are a reminder of how energy and the economy are intertwined. In the pre-industrial era, lack of access to modern energy constrained economic growth and living standards. That condition unfortunately still holds today in some less-developed countries. But for much of the world, modern energy continues to move the economy and society forward. At the same time, the ups and downs of the global economy inevitably feed back to the energy market. These cycles are the norm, not the exception. While we recognize the importance of looking at short-term dynamics of the energy market at this juncture of world economic recovery, we also believe that by focusing more on the long-term forces shaping energy trends, the public and policymakers can have a stronger foundation upon which to meet future energy needs in a safe, secure and environmentally responsible way. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 13

Charting the numbers Global fundamentals projections Demographics Demographics Billion people Billion 4 people 4 GDP Trillion 21$ 16 14 Rest of World 14 Population is growing, life spans are increasing and birth rates are slowing. Incomes are rising and poverty is on the decline. In non-oecd countries, where seven-eighths of the world lives, billions are about to join the middle class. The percentage of people living in urban settings continues to rise. These fundamentals are the starting point for The Outlook, because they are the megatrends that drive energy demand. Using data from the United Nations, World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and other sources, together with our own analysis, we seek to understand how population, demographic and economic shifts will shape the world in years to come. Our conclusion: Global energy demand will rise by about 25 percent from 214 to 24, with all of the growth coming from the non-oecd. 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 OECD32 25 4 1 China 25 4 1 India 25 4 Key 1 Growth 25 4 1 Rest 25 4 OECD32 China India Key Growth of Rest World Source: World Bank, ExxonMobil estimates of World Source: World Bank, ExxonMobil estimates World population grows 25 percent, from 7.2 to 9 billion 214-24 India has nearly 1.6 billion people by 24, passes China as most populous OECD32, China see working-age group (15-64) shrink to 24, while others see large gains In most regions, under-14 group shrinks or decelerates due to declining birth rates In all regions, population age 65 and older 4 4 4 4 4 expands as 4 life expectancy 4 rises 4 3 3 OECD32 OECD32 3 3 China China 3 3 India India 3 3 Age 65+ Age 65+ Age 15 64 Age 15 64 Age 14 Age 14 4 4 Key Key growth growth 3 3 ROW ROW 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 22 24 Key Growth India China OECD32 DATA AS OF 9/23/215 GDP DATA AS OF 9/23/215 DATA AS OF Economic "1" 179 growth 75 171drives increased AS OF "1" 179 75 171 AS OF OECD32 Chin need "25" for 183 energy 692 237 OECD32 Oct. 27, 215 "" 36186 219 "25" 183 692 237 OECD32 Oct. 27, 215 "4" 181 669 293 APPROVED BY Global GDP more than doubles 36716 237 "4" 181 669 293 APPROVED Dong BY Fu 37286 259 214-24; developing countries "1" 243 983 112 Dong Fu 3832 285 lead "1" growth 243 983 112 3928 314 XXA 15XOM EO- China "25" 247 16 984 192 4227 349 XXA 15XOM EO- China OECD32 "25" 247 grows 984 192 about 65 percent, GlblDemographics.ai ROW "4" 25 89 31 41393 394 but "4" share 25 of 89 world 31 GDP shrinks GlblDemographics.ai42478 45 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 42531 493 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA almost "1" 15 364 percent 781 61 by 24 Key Growth 4149 538 "1" 364 12 781 61 NAME India "25" 358 959 12 "1" 42183 595 42826 65 China rises to almost 2 percent NAME Dong Fu India "25" 358 959 12 of world "4" 335 GDP, 172 close 159 to U.S.; Dong Fu "4" 335 172 159 India exceeds 5 percent 8 "1" 325 698 6 Key "1" 325 698 6 "25" 343 855 16 Key growth "25" 343 855 16 growth "4" 359 969 182 "4" 3594 969 182 "1" 728 1351 124 VERSION FILE FILE INFO INFO CHART OWNER CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER India Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a Data list is used to drive the black and template for the color China chart. Bars and lines white chart, which is then used as a are cut and pasted from the black and template for the color chart. Bars and lines white template and are highly accurate. are cut and pasted from the black and However, the color chart is NOT linked to white template and are highly accurate. the database and is NOT driven by the However, the color OECD32 chart is NOT linked to data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a the database and is NOT driven by the human. Therefore, the editor needs to data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a thoroughly proof the final artwork, not human. Therefore, the editor needs to JUST the data list. thoroughly proof the final artwork, not Len JUST Shelton the data Public list. and Government Affairs 43345 7 43921 754 44668 89 45612 866 46671 925 47725 986 48778 149 49834 1113 "2" 5895 118

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Meeting growing demand People use energy in many ways every single day. These needs will grow in coming decades as populations and living standards continue to rise. Income growth and urbanization in developing economies are expected to spur demand for fuels used in the home, as well as the energy needed to produce and ship all types of manufactured goods. The number of cars on the world s roads will rise by 8 percent. But, we see the biggest growth coming from electricity, the invisible energy that the modern world expects 24/7 to provide light, heat and power to our homes, buildings and industries. By 24, the generation of electricity is expected to account for 4 percent of all the energy used in the world. 16

Transportation We want this to go there We want that to come here I need to go there You need to come here. Such are the patterns of modern life that stimulate demand for the energy that allows us to drive to work, take the train to visit friends, or fly to another city to close a business deal or spend time with loved ones. Modern living also drives demand for the energy that fuels global commerce. It is the energy that delivers raw materials to a manufacturing plant, and the energy that makes it possible for food, medicine or the latest modern conveniences to travel thousands of miles to a local market or even directly to your home. In the coming decades, advances in technology will continue to create cleaner, more efficient transportation and significant fuel savings. Even so, we see global demand for transportation continuing to rise as a growing middle class and higher incomes mean more cars on the road and increased commercial activity. Global energy demand for transportation is projected to increase by about 3 percent from 214 to 24. Essentially all of this growth is projected to come from non-oecd countries, where transportation demand will likely rise by about two-thirds. In these countries, more cars and increased use of heavy-duty vehicles is likely to more than offset the impact of better fuel efficiency, while increased economic activity will promote a rise in marine, aviation and rail transportation. In OECD32 countries, transportation demand is expected to decline about 1 percent through 24, reflecting relatively mature levels of economic development, modest population growth, and the rising use of advanced technologies that boost fuel efficiency without sacrificing mobility. More cars on the road, but more miles per gallon Today, there are close to 1 billion light-duty vehicles (LDVs) in the world. OECD32 nations have about 57 cars per 1, people, a level that reflects relatively high incomes, mature automobile markets and modern road networks. But in less-developed nations, vehicle penetration is far lower at only about 7 cars per 1, people on average. As incomes rise in these countries, people are likely to purchase a lot more cars, many for the first time. In fact, we expect the global light-duty fleet to rise by close to 8 million vehicles by 24 with about 9 percent of this growth outside the OECD32 countries. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 17

Even so, vehicle penetration in developing countries is projected to be only about one quarter of OECD32 levels by 24. Lower incomes account for much of this gap, but other factors include extensive and growing use of motorcycles in non-oecd countries, as well as access to expanding public transportation networks. In general, cars and other light-duty vehicles are becoming much more fuel efficient, thanks to changes in personal preferences and ongoing advances in technology, stimulated in part by regulations such as stricter fuel economy standards. The average car on the road will likely travel about 45 miles per gallon (mpg) in 24, compared to about 25 mpg in 214. Because of this improved fuel economy, demand for fuel for light-duty vehicles is expected to decline by about 4 percent in the OECD32 even as its number of cars rises by about 95 million (about 15 percent). In developing countries, however, light-duty demand is expected to rise by about 5 percent, as better fuel economy only partially offsets a near tripling of cars on the road. Globally, energy demand for light-duty vehicles will likely peak around 22, then decline close to 1 percent to 24. 18

Improved fuel economy is tied to advances in technology. Examples include vehicle light-weighting through durable plastic components, better tire liners, and advanced engine and powertrain systems. Customer preferences drive innovation as well. Today s new cars offer a wide range of functionality and performance, and buyers continue to seek vehicles that best meet their needs. Conventional (non-plug-in) hybrid-electric vehicles tend to be the most practical and affordable of the advanced models, providing about 3 percent better fuel economy compared to conventional gasoline-powered cars, even as these cars also improve. In fact, improving fuel economy in gasoline-fueled cars is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce GHG emissions, especially when compared to electric cars. We expect conventional hybrids to jump from about 2 percent of new-car sales in 214 to more than 4 percent by 24. In contrast, plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars are likely to account for less than 1 percent of new-car sales globally in 24. Heavy-duty transport grows with trade Driving the growth in energy for transportation in every region is commercial transportation. We see heavy-duty vehicles becoming the largest energy-consuming segment of the transportation sector by 23. This is not surprising given the role of trucking in sustaining modern life, and the projected growth in economic activity and trade. Global energy demand for heavy-duty vehicles is expected to increase by about 45 percent from 214 to 24, with about 85 percent of the growth coming from non-oecd32 countries, where economic activity is increasing most rapidly. We anticipate demand in China increasing by about 5 percent, while demand in India more than doubles. Key Growth countries demand is expected to increase by more than 5 percent. To put this in perspective, the expected increase in these 12 countries is more than the current demand in North America. 8% more mpg Technology improvements will help us travel farther with the same fuel. 214 24 Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 19

Aviation, marine and rail - the fastest-growing subsectors Just as economic growth and trade will spur demand for energy for heavy-duty vehicles, we also expect the world to see more demand for ships, planes and trains to carry supplies to factories and goods to markets. In total, energy demand from these three subsectors will likely grow by about 65 percent. In fact, the use of aviation, marine and rail transportation will likely increase to such an extent that their combined energy demand is expected to equal about 85 percent of the amount used by light-duty vehicles in 24, up from about 5 percent in 214. We expect over 9 percent of the demand to be met by oil through 24, reflecting its advantages as a practical, energy-dense and cost-effective source of fuel to meet the needs in these sectors. Growing diesel demand The vast majority of transportation energy needs today are met by oil, with gasoline being the most prominent fuel. We expect that oil will still be predominant in 24 close to 9 percent of transportation energy though we expect the product mix to shift significantly toward diesel fuel, driven in large part by strong growth in commercial transportation and relatively flat gasoline demand. Today, diesel accounts for about 35 percent of the total energy used for transportation. By 24, we expect this share to be about 4 percent, surpassing gasoline, reflecting growth of about 8 MBDOE or close to 45 percent. Most of the diesel fuel used for transportation about 8 percent is consumed by heavy-duty vehicles. Diesel engines are well-suited to pulling heavy loads, and for the foreseeable future, we expect diesel to remain predominant in the heavy-duty sector. Diesel also is used to power some light-duty vehicles, as well as marine vessels and trains. Among these uses, the most significant growth is likely to occur in the marine sector, where new emission standards will encourage greater penetration of low-sulfur diesel fuels in place of fuel oil. Partially offsetting this growth will likely be a decline in diesel use among light-duty vehicles, reflecting growing favor toward conventional and hybrid gasoline cars. 2 Led by heavy-duty trucking, commercial transportation demand expected to increase about 55%.

The promise of natural gas fuel Natural gas holds great promise for the transportation sector due to its potential to reduce fuel costs and also help meet emerging emission requirements. Today, natural gas represents about 2 percent of total transportation demand, but this share is likely to rise to about 5 percent in 24. Most of this growth will come from heavy-duty vehicles, a segment where natural gas may present a practical option to reduce fuel costs. Although trucks designed to run on natural gas are significantly more expensive than diesel trucks, economic opportunities to use compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG) may exist in regions where supply is abundant. We expect natural gas use in trucking will increase by almost 3 percent from 214 to 24, with its share of global heavy-duty vehicle demand rising to about 7 percent, up from 3 percent. We expect China and the United States to account for about 5 percent of this global demand in 24. We also anticipate natural gas demand in the marine sector to increase significantly, stimulated by new emission standards. By 24, gas is likely to account for about 1 percent of total marine fuels, up from less than 1 percent now, with about two-thirds of the growth in developing countries. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 21

Charting the numbers Transportation projections Global transportation demand MBDOE 75 Transportation demand by region MBDOE 3 22 When we look at the transportation sector, one feature is clear: increasingly, demand growth is led by heavy-duty trucks and other commercial transportation (airplanes, ships and trains). For decades, energy for personal vehicles has been growing strongly. But by 24, in terms of fuel consumption, commercial transportation will double that of light-duty vehicles. We anticipate the vast majority of vehicles to continue to run on products made from oil. However, we also see natural gas making significant headway as fuel for fleet vehicles, such as trucks and buses, as well as ships. 5 25 2 22 24 two-thirds 75 of global transportation demand Commercial 5 25 Personal Commercial Light-duty road Global energy demand for transportation to rise by about 3 percent 214-24 Commercial transport (trucks, air, rail, ships) up about 55 percent as economic output doubles By 24, commercial activity accounts for Light-duty fuel usage holds steady as fuel economy gains offset larger fleet 2 1 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 OECD32 China India Key Growth Rest of World DATA AS OF 9/1/215 Personal Commercial "" 1758 2294 17872 OECD32 2283 countries account AS OF for half of global 1845 22437 transportation demand 1875 2359 DATA AS today OF Oct. 9/1/215 2, 215 19366 Growth 24377in transport demand APPROVED 214-24 "1" BY will "25" "4" "5" 19669 25135 OECD32 26924.8 Todd Onderdonk 25536.3 2372 come from outside OECD32 279 25799 China 4526.6 8244 197.8 247 China s 2696 demand India will rise by XXA about 1491.3 15XOM 8 percent, 2972.5 493.8 EO- 2645 2776 Key Growth 727.7 1254.6 12384.6 while India s will nearly triple 2732 26613 Rest of World GlblTransDmnd.ai 9479.5 1355.3 16445.7 "1" 2158 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE Demand 28122in Key Growth countries, Rest of XXA 21822 2865 World will rise about 5 percent 22126 2932 NAME 22612 OECD32 29653 demand will fall by Todd close Onderdonk to "15" 23197 29752 1 percent 214-24 23676 3111 Data list is used to drive the black and 3 white chart, which is then used as a 23962 3673 template for the color chart. Bars and lines 2473 31243 are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to 24118 31851 the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a 241 3248 human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not "2" 23889 33125 JUST the data list. 23857 33772 2 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs

Global transportation demand by fuel MBDOE 75 Commercial transportation demand by sector MBDOE 5 Commercial transportation by region MBDOE 5 5 Other Natural gas Jet fuel Fuel oil 4 3 Rail Marine Aviation 4 3 Asia Pacific 25 Diesel Gasoline 2 1 Heavy-duty road 2 1 Africa Middle East Russia/Caspian Latin America Europe North America 2 21 22 23 24 2 22 24 2 22 24 DATA AS OF 9/1/215 DATA AS OF 9/1/215 TranRoadHeavy TranAir TranMarine TranOther North Am Europe Latin Am "2" 12821 4587 3761 925 "2" 5736 4661 1729 Close to 95 percent of current transportation Trade, economic growth spur close to Commercial 1396 4471 transportation 362 914is driven by 5475 472 1737 AS OF AS OF 13313 4519 3676 93 5523 484 1742 energy needs DATA are met AS OF by oil 1/29/215 55 percent rise in commercial transport Nov. 12, needs 215 economic growth and trade 13755 453 3818 983 Oct. 5635 19, 215 4937 171 Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil Kero/Jet Gas Other 5 Gasoline demand flattens vehicle fuel Demand for on-road heavy-duty APPROVED vehicles BY All 14436 areas see 4796 rising 4124 commercial 121 transport; APPROVED 577 BY 5187 1892 "2" 19248 1247 266 4523 59 831 Todd Onderdonk"25" 1477 4974 4317 173 "25" 5974 5333 1935 economy improves rapidly (trucks, buses) rises 45 percent 214-24 OECD32 up 2 percent 214-24 Todd Onderdonk "21" 22353 1717 3485 529 533 1122 15124 527 4544 112 644 5549 1955 Demand for "22" diesel grows 23868 45 percent 267 3565 6186 Aviation, 13 marine, 1423 rail demand XXA also grow, 15XOM EO- Asia 4 15918 Pacific 5153 accounts 4774 for 5 1115percent XXA of 6319 15XOM 5695 EO- 273 "23" 23676 24783 398 747 5 239 1718 16272 5126 4631 148 5967 5687 2216 214-24 as truck and marine needs expand rising about 65 percent in total "24" 228 2767 3516 8648 3461 242 TransDmndByFuel.ai commercial transport energy growth CommTransDmndByS 16213 4861 4568 97 5458 545 2177 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA Jet fuel demand to rise by 55 percent as air By 3 24, 4 percent of commercial "21" IN ENERGY 5741 OUTLOOK 5427 ON PAGE 2356 X Heavy-duty vehicles close to 6 percent of "21" 17214 589 485 115 17438 5234 4866 1112 5786 5414 2439 travel keeps increasing worldwide commercial 4 demand through 24 transportation demand is in Asia Pacific NAME 17949 5275 4688 112 NAME5794 5274 2575 Natural gas grows as a transport fuel, mainly for Todd Onderdonk North 18434 America 5489 and 4569 Africa 1161 combine for Todd 5965 Onderdonk 5164 2693 2 18427 5619 458 1198 5931 597 2715 commercial fleets 75 3 TranOther 25 percent of global demand growth Data list is used to drive the black and "215" 1864 5686 4588 1233 "215" Data list is 641 used to drive 5121 the black and 272 white chart, which is then used as a white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines 18911 5796 471 1265 template for 6151 the color 5161 chart. Bars and 2734 lines are cut and pasted from the black and are cut and pasted from the black and white template TranMarine and are highly accurate. 1 19231 594 4823 1285 white template 6238 and are 525 highly accurate. 2773 2 However, the color chart is NOT linked to However, the color chart is NOT linked to Other the database and is NOT driven by the 19583 612 4952 134 the database 632 and is NOT 5253 driven by 2821 the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, TranAir the editor needs to 19947 6124 585 1323 human. Therefore, 642 the 535 editor needs 2878 to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not 5 Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe Gas exxonmobilperspectives.com thoroughly proof the final artwork, not "22" Follow 2318 "22" 6484 5361 2933 JUST the data list. @exxonmobil 6239 5224 1344 23 JUST the data list. 2692 2 25 6352 21 215 22 5361 225 23 1 1366 6563 5417 2993 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER Len Shelton Public and Government Affai

Transportation projections Light-duty vehicle demand trends MBDOE 1 Light-duty vehicle fleet by region Millions 75 Light-duty vehicles and motorcycles Billions 2. 8 1.5 Light-duty vehicles 5 6 United States Key Growth 1. Motorcycles 4 China 25 2 Europe OECD India.5 2 22 24 Asia Pacific OECD 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 DATA AS OF 9/1/215 OECD32 China India Key Growth Rest AP OECD Euro OECD US KeyGrwth China India of World "" 1.34349 3.74832 8.24746 1.69773.47597.21318 1.36946 3.74928 8.358 1.78623.513922.235968 1.39951 3.76822 8.5264 1.89165.617525.255873 1.39466 3.7517 8.59322 2.1255.68582.281331 "5" Amount of fuel used by light-duty vehicles to 1.4253 3.76366 All 8.85513 regions 2.14647 will.88675 add more.297297 light-duty vehicles Global LDV fleet will likely grow by 8 percent AS OF AS OF 1.4421 3.73861 8.91286 2.3327.85241.316282 decline in U.S., other OECD through 24 DATA AS OF 9/1/215 Oct. 2, 215 from 2 214 to 24, reaching about Oct. 1.7 billion 3, 215 1.39284 3.7672 8.98661 2.44774.96479.34792 Non-OECD share of global light-duty demand Expanding middle class means "1" more APPROVED people BY "25" "4" APPROVED BY 1.41635 3.7938 8.86973 2.69118 1.48.386497 Non-OECD has only about one-third of LDVs OECD32 57277 65325 696132 rises from 4 percent now to 6 percent in 24 can afford cars Todd Onderdonk Todd Onderdonk 1.39972 3.7339 8.63797 2.87955 1.19235.422517 worldwide today but will likely China 58616 271184 41388 MOTORCYCLES account for "1" 1.41647 3.66737 8.5392 3.2731 1.19697.475538 Growth led by China, India whose fleet 1719 grows 56939 149339 about 8 percent of the increase to 24 China s LDV demand grows, then flattens as fuel XXA 15XOM EO- XXA 15XOM EO- "1" 1.4258 3.62375 8.81445 3.21 Key 1.38639 Growth.516558 94674 1947 296846 15 economy improves and car penetration slows 1.42575 3.58614 25 8.6153 percent 3.39874 to more than 4 million Rest 1.6411 of World.55348 LtDtyVhclDmndTrnds.ai Global motorcycle fleet is likely to 8972 133395 1925 LtDtyVhclFltByReg.a nearly double, TOTAL CARS 1.46187 3.49318 8.49948 3.62781 1.76999.566933 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA reaching 1 billion by 24, led by India, IN ENERGY China OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA LDV 1 demand outside the OECD and China will Around 225, China will pass the U.S. as the India 1.4819 3.44945 8.5956 3.69577 1.97296.6818 and Indonesia "15" grow about 5 percent nation with most LDVs 1. 1.48876 3.4456 8.7829 3.8386 2.15967.645316 NAME NAME 75 Todd Onderdonk About 9 percent of motorcycles are Todd in the Onderdonk non-oecd, 1. 1.45111 3.36862 8.98317 3.95555 2.32896.73167 8 China 1 1.484 3.2935 9.696 4.124 2.49247.738876 where car penetration is relatively low and motorcycles 1. Data list is used to drive the black and Data list is used to drive the black and 1. 1.36135 3.21788 8.89683 4.2267 2.6427.776174 white chart, which is then used as a offer an affordable alternative white chart, which is then used as a "2" 1. Key Growth template for the color chart. Bars and lines template for the color chart. Bars and lines 1.31273 3.1492 8.76232 4.3324 2.77193.81541 are cut and pasted from the black and are cut and pasted from the black and 6 1 white template and are highly accurate. white template and are highly accurate. 1.26544 3.613 8.51411 4.42225 2.8797.855583 However, the color chart is NOT linked to However, the color chart is NOT linked to 1. the database and is NOT driven by the the database and is NOT driven by the United States "2" 1.2266 2.97877 8.3729 4.49536 52.9671.898815 4 data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a 5 1. human. Therefore, the editor needs to human. Therefore, the editor needs to 24 1.1851 2.9745 8.1473 4.5512 3.8779.943656 thoroughly proof the final artwork, not thoroughly proof the final artwork, not 1. 4 JUST the data list. JUST the data list. Europe OECD 1.15172 2.83922 7.99328 4.59356 3.18927.989642 25 "25" 1. VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs 2 22 24 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER "" Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs DA T

Light-duty vehicle fleet by type Billions 1.75 1.5 1.25 1..75.5.25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 *Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles DATA AS OF 9/1/215 Hybrid vehicles become more commonplace by 24 Fleet Gasoline Diesel Nat Gas & LPG Hybrids Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell By 24, one "21" of every four 697191 cars on 15333 the world s roads 17775 3772 7 will be a hybrid "215" 82897 131933 22343 11955 95 "22" 925845 163268 339 313 498 Conventional "225" cars (primarily 13113 gasoline-powered) 174395 366 will 5856 9999 remain most "23" popular to 1113969 24 168826 41543 115864 21134 "235" 1118538 15165 4734 249211 4192 Plug-in electric "24" cars see 12875 modest gains; 137173 cost and 53477 458722 7125 functionality remain barriers Natural gas remains challenged as a fuel for most personal vehicles 175 15 125 1 Electric/PHEV*/fuel cell Hybrids Natural gas/lpg Diesel Gasoline Visit exxonmobil.com Global vehicle fuel efficiency Average mpg 75 5 25 Average liters per 1 kilometers 5 Fuel economy Consumption 21 22 23 24 75 Range Offset to High Cars AS OF and other LDVs to become more fuel-efficient through Oct. 27, 24 215 VERSION Range Low APPROVED 5 BY Average fuel economy will rise from 25 mpg 5 to about World Average Todd Onderdonk 45 mpg Average XXA 15XOM fuel consumption EO- will drop by half, to about 5 LtDtyVhclFltByTyp.ai liters/1 km 25 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 25 On-road fuel economy varies significantly by region FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER NAME Todd Onderdonk Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, 1which is then used 2as a 25 3354 template 5 for the color chart. Bars and lines 1 Hybrids are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to 5 the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, 4 the editor needs to Nat Gas & LPG Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com thoroughly proof the final artwork, not Follow @exxonmobil JUST the data list. 4 Range Offset to High Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs 4 3 2 1 75 DATA AS OF 1/3/215 Consumption Low High Avg "1" 7.45 6.27 "1" 9.8 7.33 6.26 9.76 7.25 6.19 9.7 7.18 6.14 9.61 7.1 6.8 9.53 6.81 6.12 "15" 9.39 6.52 6.13 9.21 6.15 6.15 9 5.81 6.18 8.77 5.51 6.37 8.54 "2" 5.26 6.49 "2" 8.31 5.7 6.54 8.8 4.91 6.55 7.87 4.77 6.53 7.67 4.63 6.49 7.48 "25" 4.5 6.45 "25" 7.3 4.37 6.41 7.13 4.24 6.37 6.96 4.12 6.28 6.8 4.1 6.16 6.65 "3" 3.94 5.98 "3" 6.51 "35" 3.7 5.2 "35" 5.82 "4" 3.47 4.77 "4" 5.3 2 25 3354 25

Residential & commercial Every time we turn on the lights, turn on a computer, or turn up the thermostat, we create demand in the residential and commercial sector. Residential and commercial energy demand is the energy we consume at home and in commercial buildings places like offices, stores, shopping centers, schools, churches and hospitals. Even with increases in efficiency, the world will need much more of this energy to serve population growth and rising prosperity around the world. Combined residential and commercial energy demand is projected to rise by nearly 25 percent from 214 to 24. More homes = more energy As consumers gain wealth, they typically seek new and larger homes. And they can afford to buy energy-consuming technologies that improve their standard of living. Consider that in 199, virtually no Chinese homes had air conditioners or water heaters. Today, almost every urban home in China has a water heater and there is on average more than one air conditioner for every household. More efficient homes While the future will be filled with bigger cities populated with more households, many of these households will be more energy-efficient. Were it not for projected efficiency gains, global residential energy demand growth would have been twice the current projection. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the energy intensity for a detached home in the U.S. declined by nearly 2 percent from 198 to 29. This decline occurred despite home size increasing by almost 25 percent. Developing countries also are making strides in residential energy efficiency. For instance, China has design standards that vary by climate zone and seek to improve insulation and window efficiency. A boom in households in Asia and other developing regions will likely be the largest driver of demand growth in the residential sector. Over The Outlook period, the total number of households worldwide is expected to increase by almost 4 percent, with 9 percent of this growth occurring in developing countries. This growth will create new demands for energy used in the home, including heating and air conditioning, televisions and other appliances, and electricity to power computers and smartphones. 26

More diverse fuels at home An unfortunate fact is that many parts of the world, particularly Africa and India, continue to rely on biomass fuels like wood and charcoal for their residential energy needs. Biomass accounted for nearly 4 percent of global residential energy demand in 214. By 24, however, that share will likely drop to 3 percent as millions of people entering the middle class and moving from the country to the city gain access to modern fuels like electricity, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). We anticipate renewable sources like solar to play a greater role in meeting residential energy needs. This shift is positive for people and the environment, because modern fuels like electricity and natural gas are about five times more efficient than traditional biomass fuels. More commercial needs We see rising prosperity and increased urbanization creating demand for more commercial buildings, and all of these buildings will require energy. By 24, commercial energy demand is expected to increase by 4 percent. Most of this growth will occur in non-oecd countries, where commercial energy demand is expected to double, including an increase in electricity demand of more than 15 percent. Lighting is one of the biggest consumers of energy in commercial buildings. The introduction of compact fluorescent lights and, more recently, LED lights has helped reduce growth in demand in this sector. Through 24, energy savings from expanded use of LED lights should help slow the growth in energy demand due to increased commercial floor space, especially in developing countries. 21 45% 24 6% An expected rise in urban living across Asia Pacific from 45% in 21 to 6% in 24 is a key driver for global residential and commercial demand. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 27

Charting the numbers Surveys have shown that people can spend up to 9 percent of their day indoors, be it at home or work or other public spaces. Each of these indoor spaces are likely to have lighting, heat, hot water, refrigeration and electricity. Many have air conditioning. All of this energy is accounted for in the residential and commercial sector, which represents about 15 percent of global primary energy use, and half of global electricity demand. On the residential side, population and income growth, as well as urbanization, will create many more households (8 million more from 214 to 24) that need energy, especially in non-oecd nations. Similar factors are at work in the commercial sector, where we see electricity becoming the dominant source of energy as living standards improve in developing nations. Residential & commercial projections Residential & commercial demand by region Quadrillion BTUs 15 125 1 75 5 25 2 22 24 Rest of World Africa India China OECD32 More energy needed for light, heat, power in homes/offices More households, urbanization spur growth in demand Globally, energy demand seen rising by 25 percent 214-24 Growth will come from non-oecd 15 nations, where residential and commercial demand rises 4 percent; OECD flat Rest of World China, Africa to see largest 125volume growth to 24 Africa DATA AS OF 1/13/215 OECD32 China India Af "" 44.43 12.4346 6.464 9.4 45.989 12.5273 6.5363 9.6 45.645 12.6951 6.72 9.9 46.7756 13.1932 6.859 1.2 46.8335 14.522 7.743 1.5 47.1852 14.5292 7.1937 1.8 46.1411 15.6 7.3765 11.1 46.219 15.787 7.4522 11.4 46.9124 15.641 7.753 11.7 46.257 16.952 8.1874 12.1 "1" 47.8962 16.5333 8.245 12.2 45.9586 17.2383 8.2681 12. 45.417 17.8492 8.5562 13.1 46.7135 18.3216 8.6833 13. 45.377 18.6573 8.9147 13.9 46.2197 19.172 9.1129 14.3 46.2175 19.6994 9.345 14.6 46.293 2.1589 9.4952 14.9 46.371 2.7241 9.6857 15.3 46.2786 21.233 9.8698 15.6 "2" 46.2287 21.7212 1.533 15.9 46.1951 22.2261 1.2447 16.3 46.159 22.7222 1.4371 16.6 46.98 23.297 1.638 16.9 46.355 23.6887 1.8261 17.3 45.9587 24.157 11.231 17.7 45.8748 24.5389 11.1684 18. 45.7883 24.92 11.31 18.3 45.691 25.2498 11.4477 18.7 45.5828 25.585 11.581 19.1 "3" 45.4542 25.912 11.6991 19.4 "35" 44.8899 26.9439 12.2152 21. "4" 44.1147 27.6442 12.664 22.6 1 India 75 China 28 5 OECD32

Residential & commercial demand by fuel DATA AS OF 9/22/215 Energy use per household Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Coal Biomass/Other Million BTUs Elec per household Other (Renew. + Mkt Heat) 1 15 "" 15.35 2.95 3.83 1 29.19 22.83 5.74 15.66 2.95 3.8 29.36 23.45 5.88 Other 15.29 21.41 3.74 29.61 24.53 5.7 125 15.46 22.35 3.86 3.18 25.31 5.96 8 15.71 22.5 4.11 3.47 26.21 6 15.61 22.58 4.16 8 3.89 27.37 5.81 Electricity 15.4 22.53 4.3 31.13 28.28 5.94 14.6 23.16 4.16 31.47 29.49 5.88 1 14.56 23.77 4.44 31.78 3.24 6.6 6 14.23 23.35 4.68 6 32.23 3.57 Middle 6.8East "1" 14.25 24.37 4.29 32.75 32.9 6.38 14.12 23.9 4.17 32.99 32.29 North 6.65 America 75 13.69 23.26 4.45 33.29 33.11 Europe 6.81 13.94 24.73 4.34 33.58 34.1 Africa 6.94 Biomass 13.97 24.22 4.32 4 33.86 34.46 7.2 Rest of World 5 14.21 24.86 4.32 34.8 35.44 7.13 Coal India 14.29 25.1 4.33 34.25 36.29 7.18 4 14.36 25.38 4.3 34.37 37.19 China 7.24 2 Gas 14.44 25.68 4.34 2 34.48 38.11 7.3 25 14.52 25.96 4.35 34.53 39.3 7.35 "2" 14.58 26.24 4.36 34.56 39.94 7.4 14.63 26.47 4.37 34.63 4.95 7.43 Oil 14.67 26.69 4.37 34.68 41.97 7.47 14.71 26.91 4.36 34.73 43.1 7.5 2 22 24 14.74 27.13 4.35 34.76 2 44.7 22 24 7.53 14.77 27.35 4.33 34.77 45.13 7.55 14.74 27.56 4.32 34.74 46.9 7.56 14.71 27.77 4.3 34.69 47.6 7.57 14.68 27.97 4.29 34.63 48.3 7.57 14.64 28.16 4.27 34.55 48.99 7.57 "3" 14.59 28.35 4.24 34.46 49.94 DATA AS OF 9/22/215 7.56 "35" 14.52 29.2 3.8 33.49 54.61 7.55 Electricity accounts for nearly all demand growth "4" 214-24 14.44 29.52 3.3 31.87 Middle 59.19 East, North NorthAm America Europe use 7.48 the China most India energy Africa per household Mid East ROW "2" AS OF 88.927 6.914 31.849 32.484 58.46 7.443 43.936 Electricity use up 7 percent, reaches 4 percent share Households in India, 85.17 China 62.748 among 31.277 the world s 32.57 lowest 57.716 energy 69.984 users 43.471 15 Oct. 2, 215 86.434 6.693 3.978 32.36 57.216 72.65 42.434 Biomass fuels decline to about 2 Other percent (Renew. of demand + Mkt Heat) by 24 Declining APPROVED household BY 88.17 energy 61.37 use is 31.32 tied to 31.955 improved 56.87 efficiency 72.176 42.282 Nick China intensity is 85.34 Jones Natural relatively 61.19 flat as 32.73 efficiency 32.37 offsets 56.36 growth 75.585 from 41.419 125gas rises 2 percent 214-24 as coal declines, oil loses share Elec 84.85 6.746 32.28 32.121 55.91 78.212 39.298 Fuel shifts reflect rising living standards, urbanization in non-oecd more household XXA 15XOM 78.538 appliances EO- 59.54 32.392 32.212 55.58 81.868 39.177 1 ResCommDmndByFuel.ai 81.518 55.365 32.71 31.817 55.148 83.56 38.431 Biomass/Other 8.454 57.387 31.724 32.257 54.942 8.745 38.17 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 77.39 56.323 31.637 33.391 54.721 81.495 36.964 75 Coal "21" 77.24 6.17 31.413 32.559 53.769 78.845 37.314 NAME 75.374 54.25 31.669 31.999 53.83 78.652 37.528 Nick Jones 68.875 55.381 31.669 32.456 53.695 74.966 36.81 5 Gas 73.133 55.878 31.62 32.155 53.296 73.519 36.61 Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which 73.358 is then used 51.374 as a 31.236 32.251 53.717 74.986 36.243 Oil Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted 7.75 from the 54.299 black and 31.142 Follow 32.292 @exxonmobil 53.493 73.744 35.887 25 white template and are highly accurate. 69.233 53.771 31.69 32.334 53.183 72.767 35.625 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER N: OWNER However, the color chart is NOT linked to 2 21 22 29 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER N: OWNER 2 2 2 AS O Oc APP XX En N N Data white temp are c white Howe

Residential & commercial projections China s durable goods ownership China s durable goods ownership Average ownership per 1 households 1 Average ownership per 1 households 1 8 Air conditioners 8 Refrigerators Air conditioners 6 Washing Refrigerators machines 6 Washing machines Computers 4 Computers 4 2 Cars 2 Cars Refrigerator sales, 22 222 Refrigerator sales, 22 222 Units per 1 households Units 14 per 1 households 14 Sales in United States, Japan, 12 Western Europe Sales in United States, Japan, 12 Western Europe 1 1 8 6 4 2 8 6 4 2 = 212 = 212 Brazil Brazil China China Indonesia Indonesia India India Electricity use per household Thousand kilowatt hours per household 12 1 8 6 4 2 Middle East North America Europe China Rest of World India Africa 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 GDP 2 per 4 capita 6 (PPP$k) 8 1 12 Source: China GDP Statistical per capita Yearbook; (PPP$k) ExxonMobil estimates Source: China Statistical Yearbook; ExxonMobil estimates 5 1 15 2 25 5GDP per 1 capita 15 (PPP$k) 2 25 Source: Freedonia GDP per Group, capita Inc.; (PPP$k) ExxonMobil estimates Source: Freedonia Group, Inc.; ExxonMobil estimates 2 22 24 2 21 22 3 China data illustrate how higher incomes spur demand for durable goods As incomes rise, appliances 1 and air conditioners lead list of purchases 1 In 1985, 1 in 5 Chinese homes 8 had refrigerators; 4 out of 5 8today By 212, washing machine and refrigerator 6 ownership reached 8 out of 1 Chinese Cars homes 6 Cars 4 4 2 2 2 4 6 8 1 12 (Data listed on 2nd page) (Data listed on 2nd page) (Data listed on 2nd page) (Data listed on 2nd page) Refrigerator sales data show China on Middle Cars AS OF DATA East to AS pass OF North 9/22/215 America as top AS OF DATA AS OF 9/22/215 trend to 17.994 Cars reach U.S., 1.7564 OECD levels Sept. AS OF 3pm, electricity 215 user NorthAm per household Europe China AS Oct. OF India Africa M DATA 2, 215 15.1997 1.46 China AS OF 9/22/215 17.994 1.7564 "2" 952.83 3815.28 429.486 427.411 729.94 5 India and 12.6488 Indonesia 9.2342 have lower income APPROVED Sept. BY 3pm, 4.9 Air conditioning 215 4.2518 is a major driver of electricity Oct. APPROVED 2, BY 215 15.1997 1.46 China 1.1668 8.461 9445.19 397.82 463.623 44.77 694.24 5 14 Nick Jones 5.1 4.59739 level starting 12.6488 8.17168 points 9.2342 APPROVED BY 7.7323 than China, but 4.9 used in 4.2518 APPROVED the home Nick BY Jones 1.1668 5.5 5.31751176.8 395.33 498.286 458.51 71.61 follow similar 6.9989 14 8.461 Nick Jones 5.1 4.59739 7.871 Nick Jones 8.17168 paths 7.7323 5.73657 6.23836 XXA 15XOM 5.5 5.7 North EO-America 5.3175 5.5675 1129.9 demand 415.88 to fall 15 percent 567.872 486.631 772.76 5 XXA 15XOM EO- 6.998912 7.871 4.7175 5.5675 5.7 6 5.5675 6.23836194.9 431.95 641.749 56.461 751.237 6 High urbanization 5.73657 in Brazil equates ChinaDmndDurblGds.ai XXA 15XOM 6.2 214-24; EO- Europe stays flat 3.8673 12 6.23836 7.871 XXA RefridgeSales.ai 15XOM EO- 5.3175 6 6.23836 1324.4 447.84 761.59 517.278 794.15 6 to refrigerator 4.7175 3.31971sales 5.5675 4.59739 resembling ChinaDmndDurblGds.ai IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 6.2 6.4 China continues 7.871 7.7323 RefridgeSales.ai 194.8 to see strong 48.47 growth 862.475 in 564.213 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK 89.83 ON PAGE X 3.8673 5.3175 6 2.71 4.2518 6.7 8.461 OECD countries 3.3197 4.59739 6.4 7.7323 1 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 2.68368 3.8834 household electricity 1287.3 426.77 112.34 IN 581.889 ENERGY OUTLOOK 83.766 ON PAGE XX 6.9 9.2342 6 2.71 4.2518 6.7 8.461 NAME NAME 2.36152 8 2.68368 3.697 3.8834 6.9 7.1 9.2342 1.461113.6 454 172.46 67.879 851.48 6 1.99474 3.35478 Nick NAME Jones 7 India and 1.7564 Africa 969.81 also see 435.2 growth in 1164.1 home Nick Jones NAME 2.361528 3.697 7.1 1.46 654.87 832.132 7 1.75878 1.99474 3.14494 electricity use 1.44346 6 3.35478 Nick Jones 77.1 1.7564 2.94551 "21" 11.5276 Nick Jones 134.5 4138.26 1188.81 75.78 864.97 7 Data list is used to drive the black and 7.4 12.34 Data list is used to drive the black and 1.75878 3.14494 white chart, which is then used as a 1.23471 2.72261 7.1 11.5276 986.12 3939.34 1277.38 white 766.386 chart, which is then 876.45 used as a 1.443466 2.94551 7 template Data list is for used the to color drive 7.7 chart. the black Bars and 13.838 lines template for the color chart. 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China and Africa: a closer look From 214 through 24, we expect China and Africa to lead the world in gains in residential and commercial energy demand; each will account for about 3 percent of global growth in this sector. But while the increases are similar, the reasons behind them are very different, and illustrate how many factors can influence demand in the residential and commercial sector. In China, key drivers are income growth and urbanization. By 24, China s GDP per capita is expected to exceed $4, per year similar to OECD32 levels today. In the residential subsector, urbanization and rising incomes encourage people to start new, less crowded households with more amenities that require energy and electricity. By 24, almost 75 percent of China s residents are expected to live in cities. As that occurs, China s total number of households is expected to grow by 3 percent to 24 even as its population grows by less than 5 percent. By 24, the average household in China is anticipated to have just over two residents. While we see residential energy demand in China rising by 25 percent from 214 to 24, even faster growth is expected in China s commercial subsector, where we see energy use nearly tripling to meet demand for retail, medical, educational and other services tied to personal income levels. In Africa, on the other hand, we see the main driver as population growth. We anticipate that the vast majority of gains in residential and commercial energy demand in Africa to 24 will come from the residential subsector, where the number of households is expected to double to nearly 5 million. Africa s population is projected to grow by 75 percent. By 24, the continent of Africa will have surpassed both China and India, and have a total population of nearly 2 billion. Nearly 5 percent of Africa residents are expected to live in cities, about the same rate as China today. But at a projected $6,5 per year, Africa s GDP per capita will be one-sixth the level of China in 24, which is one reason why its household size will continue to be relatively high, with more than four people per household in 24. Urbanization and income trends also help explain the difference between China and Africa in terms of the fuels used in homes and businesses. In general, China s higher incomes allow it to rely more on electricity and less on biomass used directly in homes. And electricity is essential for commercial buildings such as schools and hospitals. We expect electricity to account for most of the growth in China s residential and commercial demand through 24, but only 3 percent of Africa s. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 31

Industrial Toyota, GE, Samsung, Bayer and thousands more. The industrial sector represents the companies that manufacture the wide array of goods that characterize modern life. Industry makes steel, cement and asphalt for our cities. It makes the appliances, vehicles and electronics that serve people and their families, and the agricultural products that safely feed a growing population. The industrial sector also includes companies that produce energy, such as ExxonMobil. Given the scale of global industry, it is no surprise that the industrial sector is the largest direct user of energy. Globally, industrial activity accounts for 3 percent of primary energy demand and 5 percent of electricity demand. And given the growth in urbanization and the global middle class in the coming decades, it also is not surprising that industrial energy demand is expected to grow significantly. Industrial energy usage is projected to rise by about 3 percent from 214 to 24. Most of this growth will come from two subsectors: heavy industry and chemicals. China manufacturing shifts focus China has dominated the industrial sector since around 2, when it began to rapidly expand its economy and build out its infrastructure, particularly in its coastal cities. From the 197s to 2, global industrial energy demand grew at about 1.6 percent a year; but from 2-214 it accelerated to an average of 2.3 percent a year, with more than half that growth coming from China. Over the past decade China accounted for about half the world s steel and cement production. These two industries are among the most energy-intensive. The majority of this steel and cement was used domestically to build roads, bridges, apartment buildings and factories as China s urban population expanded and its middle class grew. In fact, from 2 to 214, 7 percent of the growth in China s end-use energy demand was attributed to industrial activity. China s economy continues to grow at a relatively strong rate, about 2.5 times that of the OECD32. However, China s economy is maturing and energy demand from its industrial sector is expected to peak around 23. Over The Outlook period, we expect gains in industrial demand to be led by India and the Key Growth countries especially Brazil, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. We forecast global industrial growth averaging 1 percent a year from 214 to 24, with two-thirds of the growth occurring before 225. 32

Making more with less energy, cleaner fuels Just as today s new cars and homes are more energy-efficient than ones from previous generations, industries continue to make more with less through new technologies and processes. For example, the World Steel Association estimates it takes about 6 percent less energy to produce a tonne of crude steel today than it did in 196. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy intensity for producing cement will improve by.5 percent per year as optimization and modified production processes continue to be more widely adopted. Industrial efficiency has improved in all regions. But the most dramatic change has been in China; the energy intensity of its industrial sector has improved markedly over the past 2 years. From 214 to 24, India and the Key Growth countries are expected to account for over half the growth in industrial energy demand. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 33

The energy and emissions saved through efficiency is positive for the environment, as is the fact that the mix of fuels used by industry continues to grow less carbon-intense. Consider the trends underway in heavy industry, a category that includes iron, steel, cement, aluminum and general manufacturing. Through 24, heavy industries are likely to derive a greater share of their energy from natural gas and electricity, and less from oil and coal. Coal, which accounted for over 35 percent of global heavy industry energy demand in 214, will have dropped to around 25 percent by 24. In China, the world s largest user of coal, heavy industry will get about 45 percent of its energy from coal in 24, down from more than 6 percent in 214. The versatility and ease of use that natural gas provides are expected to help gas increase its share of heavy industry demand from 15 percent today to over 2 percent by 24. Using electricity to power motors, control systems and robotics has the dual benefit of improving efficiency while also increasing productivity through modern manufacturing methods, especially in the many non-oecd countries that today rely on coal. Chemicals and the middle class Chemicals are a part of modern life. They are the building blocks for plastics, which are found in nearly every consumer product. For example, today s new cars are about 5 percent plastic by volume. Plastics also are used in packaging, electronics, building materials and medical supplies. Energy demand in the chemical sector is expected to rise by about 5 percent from 214 to 24, driven by rising living standards in developing economies. Most of this increase is expected to occur in China, India and the Key Growth countries. The United States also is likely to see demand growth as its chemical industry expands to capture the benefit of rising shale gas and tight oil production. This benefit is twofold, since chemical producers use oil and natural gas in two ways: as a fuel, and also as a feedstock. Plastic insulation materials consume approximately 16% less energy and emit 9% less GHG than alternative materials. Across their whole life cycle, plastic insulation boards save 15 times the energy used for their manufacture. PlasticsEurope 34

Globally, about 6 percent of the energy in the chemical sector is used as feedstock. Naphtha, an oil derivative, had been the world s primary feedstock for decades, and still accounts for about 55 percent of the market. But relatively strong growth in natural gas production is helping to shift the global feedstock mix toward ethane and other natural gas liquids (NGLs). NGLs account for more than 4 percent of chemical feedstock today, and by 24 they are expected to be nearly equal with naphtha on a global basis. Regional differences will remain, however; North America and the Middle East will continue to rely on natural gas liquids for chemical feedstock, while Asia Pacific will continue to use mostly naphtha. Naphtha has been the main feedstock in Asia Pacific for decades, used to create plastics and inks for food containers and labels as well as many other products. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 35

Charting the numbers Industrial projections Global industrial demand by sector Quadrillion BTUs 3 Industrial demand by fuel type Quadrillion BTUs 3 36 When we look at industrial energy trends, we still start with China. Over the past 15 years, China saw astounding growth in its economy and infrastructure, and became the world s largest industrial energy user. Because of what was happening in China during that time, the rate of global industrial energy demand growth was about 5 percent higher than historical averages. Today we see China s economy maturing, and its industrial energy demand peaking around 23. Afterward, global industrial demand will grow at a more modest pace, and leadership is expected to shift to India. One thing that has not changed: chemicals production is the fastestgrowing source of industrial energy usage. Demand for plastics and other chemical products remains strong. Also, more than half the energy that goes into the chemical sector is used not as fuel, but as feedstock, and thus is not impacted by the gains in efficiency that are curbing demand elsewhere. 25 2 15 1 5 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 Industrial activity expands to serve non-oecd growth Growth tapers post-225 as China s economy shifts focus Chem Global industrial energy usage to rise by 3 Other Industry 3 percent 214-24 Heavy industry (steel, cement, TOTEIUSE etc.) grows 25 percent; chemicals 5 percent Energy-industry 2 demand will mirror trends in fossil fuels production 1 Other Chemical Heavy industry Energy industry Other 25 DATA AS OF 9/15/215 Other TOTEIUSE OtherInd Chem "198" 2 13.1 24.4 69.1 17.3 13.1 22.6 67.4 17.5 15 1 13 22.4 64.5 17.3 13.2 22.5 64 17.7 13.7 23.6 66.8 18.7 14.1 24.8 66.4 18.9 14.5 25.7 66.7 2 14.9 26 69.4 2.6 15.3 27.2 71.5 21.6 15.3 28.4 71 22.1 "199" 5 12.5 28.7 71.4 25.8 12.8 28.4 7.7 26.4 Oil 12.4 28.8 69.4 26.8 12.3 28.7 67 27.6 198 12.8 19929.6 2 21 66.9 22 28.2 23 24 13 3.6 68.3 3.5 12.6 31.4 68.4 31.5 13.3 31.8 68.8 31.9 13.5 32.3 68.8 31 13.6 32.2 68 31.9 "2" 12.3 32.5 7.8 34.4 Industries 12.6 use 32.6 a variety 7.1 of 33.8 fuels for their energy 12.9 needs 33.5 71.1 33.6 13 35.4 74.5 34.5 AS OF Industrial 13.9 fuel 36.7 mix will 79.4 shift 36.5toward Oct. 16, 215 14.9 3 38.1 82.8 37 SECONDARY lower-carbon 15.3 38.4 sources 86.9 38 APPROVED BY BIOMASS/OTHER 15.4 39.2 89.7 39.8 Nick Jones Coal s 15.2 fuel share 4.7 drops 9.5 from 39.1 over 2 percent 14.6 39.5 88.1 39.4 to about 15 percent 214-24 "21" 15.1 39.6 95 43 COAL XXA 15XOM EO- GAS 16.6 4.2 98.7 44.1 Natural GlblIndDmndByInd.ai 15.5 2 gas, electricity each rise to about a 41.8 1.1 44.8 OIL 25 15.8 percent 41.5 share by 11.8 2446 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 15.9 41.6 12.9 47.1 Oil 16.1 remains flat 43 as 12.2 a fuel, but 48 its use as a NAME 16.4 43.6 14 49.3 chemical 16.6 feedstock 44.1 15.3 grows 5.3 Nick Jones 16.9 44.5 17.7 51.8 1 17.2 44.9 19.8 53 "22" 17.4 45.4 111.9 53.9 17.7 45.9 113.4 55.2 17.9 46.4 115 56.3 18.1 46.8 116.7 57.5 18.3 47 118.5 58.7 18.4 47.2 12.4 59.8 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER TENTION: OWNER Electricity/market heat Biomass/other Coal Gas Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not DATA OIL "198" 46.6 43.9 42.5 41.8 42.4 42.5 43.7 44.8 46.2 46.5 "199" 44.9 44.8 45.2 44 45.5 46.6 47.1 49 48.6 49.9 "2" 49.8 5.1 5.7 51.5 54.4 55.1 56.3 56.7 55.9 55.4 "21" 57.3 57 58.5 59.4 59.8 6.5 61.3 62.1 63.2 64.2 "22" 64.9 66.1 67.1 68.2 69.3 7.4

Industrial demand growth 197 2 (~6 quadrillion BTUs) Rest of World 2 214 (~6 quadrillion BTUs) Rest Industrial of World demand Industrial growth demand ChinaIndustrial Other growth Key demand Growth growth 214 24 (~6 quadrillion BTUs) Rest of World 197 2 197 2 197 2 Iran 2 214 2 214 2 214 214 24 214 24 (~6 quadrillion BTUs) (~6 quadrillion BTUs) Saudi Arabia (~6 quadrillion (~6 BTUs) quadrillion BTUs) (~6 quadrillion BTUs) (~6 quadrillion (~6 BTUs) quadrillion BTUs) (~6 quadrillion BTUs) Brazil Rest of World Rest of World Rest of World China India China Rest of World Rest of World ChinaRest of World Other Key China Growth Other Key Growth Other Key Growth Russia China India China Rest Other of World Rest of World Rest of World Other Iran Iran Iran Key Growth Key Growth South Korea Saudi Arabia India Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia United States Indonesia United States Indonesia Brazil Brazil Brazil Iran Brazil India India Brazil Canada Saudi Russia Russia India China Russia Other Arabia China Other Other India India Other China Other Other Key Growth Key Growth Key Growth Key Growth Key Growth Key Growth South Korea South Korea India South India Korea India United States United States Indonesia United States Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia United States United States Indonesia Iran Brazil Indonesia Brazil Brazil Canada Brazil Canada Saudi Iran Brazil Canada Saudi Iran Saudi Arabia Arabia Arabia China 214 24 (~6 quadrillion BTUs) China India United States Brazil DATA AS OF 9/18/215 197-2 in percent China India SKorea US Canada Brazil Indo Other key ROW 28.9 7.42 5.65 4.8 4.1 5.15 3.95 15.59 25.25 DATA AS OF 9/18/215 DATA AS OF 9/18/215 DATA AS OF 9/18/215 2-214 in percent 197-2 in percent197-2 in percent 197-2 in percent China India Russia Brazil Saudi Iran OtherKey ROW China India SKorea China India US Canada SKorea China Brazil US India Canada SKorea Indo Brazil Other US key Canada Indo ROW Other Brazil key Indo ROW Other key ROW 33.8 28.9 5.1 7.42 3.1 2 5.65 28.9 7.42 4.8 2.2 2 4.1 5.65 28.95.154.8 7.42 3.5 4.1 3.95 5.65 5.1515.59 4.8 5.6 3.95 4.1 25.25 5.15 15.59 3.95 25.25 15.59 AS 25.25 OF Trends in industrial energy demand continue to be shaped by China As China s industry boomed 2-214, global demand rose 2.3 percent a year 2-214 214-24 in in percent percent 2-214 in percent 2-214 in percent China India Russia China Brazil India Russia Saudi Brazil China India Iran Saudi Russia OtherKey Brazil Iran Saudi OtherKey ROW Iran ROW OtherKey APPROVED ROW BY China India US Brazil Saudi Iran Indonesia Other Key ROW 33.8 8.7 5.1 11.1 3.7 3.133.8 3.7 2 5.1 2.4 2.2 3.1 2.6 33.82 5.1 3.2 2 2.23.1 3.5 7.6 2 2 2.2 14.1 5.63.5 2 5.6 3.5 5.6 AS OF China accounted for more than half the growth in demand 2-214 214-24 in percent214-24 in percent 214-24 in percent APPROVED BY APPROVED BY China India US China Brazil India Saudi US Iran China Brazil Indonesia India Saudi Other US Iran Key Brazil Indonesia Saudi Other ROW Iran Key Indonesia ROW Other Key ROW Nick Jones 8.7 11.1 3.78.7 3.7 11.12.4 3.72.68.7 3.7 11.1 3.2.4 3.7 2.6 7.63.7 3.22.4 14.1 2.6 7.6 3.2 14.1 7.6 14.1IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE ROW Other key Indo Brazil ROW Visit OtherKey exxonmobil.com Iran Global demand seen averaging 1 percent a year 214-24 as China moderates Oct. 2, 215 Post-214 rise in industrial demand will be led by India; U.S. re-emerges VERSION FILE INFO VERSION CHART FILE INFO OWNER WNER ATTENTION: OWNER CHART OWNER Nick Jones ROW Other Subscribe Key exxonmobilperspectives.com Indonesia VERSION Oct. XXA 2, 15XOM 215 Oct. EO- 2, 215 Oct. 2, 215 APPROVED BY IndDmndGrwthPies.ai Nick Jones Nick Jones XXA 15XOM XXA EO-15XOM XXA EO- 15XOM EO- NAME IndDmndGrwthPies.ai Nick Jones IndDmndGrwthPies.ai IndDmndGrwthPies.ai FILE INFO XXA IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON IN PAGE ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template NAME for the color chart. Bars NAME and lines NAME are cut and pasted from the black and white Nick template Jones and are highly Nick accurate. Jones Nick Jones However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a Data list is used to drive the Data black list and is used to drive Follow the Data black @exxonmobil list and is used to drive the black and human. Therefore, the editor needs to white chart, which is then white used as chart, a which is then used white as chart, a which is then used as a thoroughly proof the final artwork, not template for the color chart. template Bars and for lines the color chart. template Bars and for lines the color chart. Bars and lines JUST the data list. CHART OWNER WNER AS OF XXA VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER WNER AS OF XXA XXA 37

Industrial projections Industrial energy intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar of GDP (21$) 2 Heavy industry fuel mix transition Fuel share in percent 1 Other 15 8 Electricity/heat 6 1 4 Gas China 5 199 2 21 22 23 24 Rest of World Key Growth United States Europe Japan 2 199 21 24 OECD32 21 24 China 21 24 Rest of World Coal Oil 38 Industries in all regions continue to grow less energy-intense Intensity measures amount of energy to produce $1 of GDP ROW Japan has had the least energy-intensive industry for decades Key Growth 2 China makes big strides as it modernizes China technologies, processes OECD industries 15 continue to Europe improve industrial energy efficiency 1 5 United States Japan DATA AS OF 9/15/215 (Data listed on 2nd page) Oil Coal Gas Elec/Heat Other OECD32 leads OECD the "199" shift away 2 28 2 24 8 AS OFfrom coal and oil as fuels for industry OECD "21" 13 21 25 32 1 By 24, gas/electricity OECD "24" are Oct. 875 percent 2, 215 9 of OECD32; 31 43 coal drops 9 to China "21" APPROVED 7 BY under 1 percent 65 2 26 China "24" 3 Nick 45 Jones 12 39 2 China s industries ROW "21" use 45 percent 16 coal 26 in 24, 21 down 24 from 6 13 percent in 214 ROW "24" XXA 11 15XOM 22 EO- 24 32 12 IndEnrgyInten.ai Natural gas emerges as an industrial fuel in China; 1 percent by 24 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA Electricity sees strong demand as global industry modernizes 1 8 6 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER NAME Nick Jones Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not JUST the data list. Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs Other Electricity/Market Heat Gas Coal VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER AS OF Oct. 2, 2 APPROVED BY Nick Jon XXA 15XO HvyIndFue IN ENERGY OUT NAME Nick Jones Data list is used to driv white chart, which is t template for the color are cut and pasted from white template and are However, the color cha the database and is NO data; it is a piece of ar human. Therefore, the thoroughly proof the f JUST the data list. Len Shelton Public an

Chemical demand by region Quadrillion BTUs 75 Chemical demand by fuel type Quadrillion BTUs 25 Rest of World 75 2 Rest of World 75 5 Key Growth India 5 15 Key Growth India 5 United States 25 China 1 China OECD32 25 5 OECD32 25 United States 2 22 24 2 21 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 Naphtha Gas liquids Other oil Gas Coal Electricity/ heat 22 23 235 24 2 21 22 23 235 24 Chemicals is one of the fastest-growing DATA AS OF 9/15/215 Chemical sector DATA uses oil AS OF and 9/3/215 gas two ways: as fuel energy-demand OECD32 sectors China India Key Growth ROW United Statesand as feedstock Oct. "21" 27, 215 "225" "24" "2" 2.1 4.2 1.1 3.8 5.1 "2" 9.3 Naphtha 11.6 16.2 21.3 Rising prosperity spurs Use of naphtha, an oil-based APPROVED feedstock, BY 19.3 demand 4.3 for 1.1 3.7 5.5 8.7 Gas Liquids 9.2 to grow 16 2.1 plastics, other chemical 18.4 products 4.6 1.1 4 5.5 7.6 by 7 percent to Other 24 Oil Nick Jones 3 1.7 1.5 18.5 5.2 1.1 4.1 5.8 7.3 Gas 1.7 13.9 15.3 Energy demand in the 19.1 chemicals 5.6 1.2 sector to 4.5 6.1 7.8 Gas liquids (NGLs) Coal rise 9 percent, 3.4 as shale gas 18.9 6 1.2 4.6 6.5 7.4 XXA 15XOM EO- 6.1 6.4 rise 5 percent 214-24 18.5 6.5 1.3 4.9 6.7 7.1helps expand supplies Elec/Heat ChemDmndByReg.ai 5.2 5.9 6.7 19.1 7 1.3 5.3 7 7.1 Gains led by China, IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 18.1 India, Saudi 7.2 Arabia, 1.1 5.4 7.2 6.7By 24, NGLs and naphtha roughly even as 17.7 7.3 1.2 5.8 7.5 6.7 other Key Growth "21" 19.2 7.6 1.2 6.4 8.6 "21" 7.6chemical feedstocks NAME 19.2 8.3 1.3 6.8 8.6 7.7 U.S. chemicals expand China uses coal as fuel, and Nick as Jones 18.7 due 9 to access 1.3 to 7 8.8 7.1 an alternative 25 low-cost NGL feedstocks 19.4 9.5 1.3 6.8 9.1 7.6chemical feedstock 19.2 1.2 1.3 7 9.4 7.4 Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a 19.1 1.8 1.4 6.9 9.7 7.4 template for the color chart. Bars and lines 19.2 11.4 1.6 7.2 9.8 7.6 are cut and pasted from the black and 2 24 white template and are highly accurate. 19.3 11.8 1.7 7.5 1 7.7 However, the color chart is NOT linked to 19.8 12.2 1.8 7.8 1.2 8.1 the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a 2.1 12.5 1.9 8 1.5 8.5 human. Therefore, the editor needs to 225 "22" 2.1 12.7 2 Visit exxonmobil.com 8.1 1.8 "22" 8.6 Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com thoroughly proof the final artwork, not Follow @exxonmobil 15 JUST the data list. 2.4 13.1 2.2 8.5 11 9 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER AS OF Sept. 3, 21 APPROVED BY Nick Jones XXA 15XOM ChemDmndB IN ENERGY OUTLOOK O NAME Nick Jones Data list is used to drive the b white chart, which is then use template for the color chart. B are cut and pasted from the b white template and are highly However, the color chart is N the database and is NOT driv data; it is a piece of artwork b human. Therefore, the editor thoroughly proof 39the final art JUST the data list. Len Shelton Public and Gove

Electricity generation Thomas Edison probably could not have envisioned all the ways people would use electricity in the 21st century. Electricity powers the factories that make the world s goods. It provides light, heat and air conditioning for homes and commercial buildings. And electricity runs the Internet and everything that connects to it. Today, power generation accounts for more than 35 percent of global energy use. That percentage will continue to grow as technology evolves, and more people in developing nations gain access to electricity. Global demand for electricity is expected to rise by 65 percent from 214 to 24. % city demand growth from developing c nations. 85% of electricity demand growth will come from developing nations. 4

Electricity demand driven by non-oecd growth The need for electricity is rising in all parts of the world, but growth is being led by non-oecd countries, many of which are entering (or already have entered) a period much like what the OECD experienced in the 2th century modern fuels are replacing traditional ones, people are moving from rural settings to modern cities with the latest technologies, and more people are gaining access to electricity. About half of global electricity usage comes from the industrial sector, driven in part by the spread of advanced manufacturing and processing. The other half comes from residential and commercial buildings. While electric cars are available, even by 24 we expect that only about 2 percent of global electricity demand will come from the transportation sector. According to EIA data, the United States eliminated 1 billion metric tonnes of CO 2 emissions between 25 and 213 by using natural gas for electricity generation. Natural gas expected to pull even with coal in electricity generation Electricity is a secondary form of energy, meaning it must be generated through the use of some other energy source. Today, on a global basis, the fuels used to generate electricity are (in order): coal, natural gas, hyrdroelectric power, nuclear and modern renewables like wind and solar. But much variation exists among nations and regions. For example, China gets about 7 percent of its electricity from coal, while Europe about 25 percent. Each nation and region will continue to choose the mix of fuels that best suits its needs. These decisions will be based on a host of factors, including: energy security, the cost and availability of fuels, air quality and emissions. Many regions will seek to lower their carbon emissions, often by switching from coal to gas. By 24, we expect the share of electricity generated by natural gas to rise to about 3 percent and be about even with coal-fired generation. We also anticipate coal to remain important in some areas, especially where gas is not readily available and bottom-line economics are most important. For example, the amount of electricity generated from coal in India is seen rising 15 percent from 214 to 24. The world s continued reliance on coal for power generation will keep up pressure to reduce power sector emissions. As nations look for ways to curb emissions, particularly from coal, some are considering capturing CO 2 and storing it underground; however, carbon-capture-and-storage technologies continue to face substantial economic and practical hurdles that will likely limit their deployment. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 41

Nuclear, wind, solar also grow The amount of electricity from nuclear power is expected to more than double from 214 to 24. Much of this growth is projected to come from China, which is expanding nuclear to reduce its reliance on coal. We also expect wind and solar to see strong growth, aided by policies that favor or mandate their use. We see wind and solar accounting for more than 1 percent of global electricity generation in 24, up from 4 percent in 214. It is important to remember that these are global averages the use of wind and solar will vary widely by region. While wind and solar energy may seem free, significant investment is required to build the facilities that turn this energy into electricity. Moreover, because wind and solar energy are intermittent, these facilities use only a fraction of their capacity and must be backed up by other sources typically gas to ensure a reliable flow of electricity. Although battery costs have fallen considerably, they remain too expensive to be considered with renewables as a replacement for reliable baseload generation. Nations choose different paths on emissions The generation of electricity is the world s single largest source of CO 2 emissions, so it s not surprising that nations are looking for ways to curb emissions in this sector. While many options are available, the best are usually the ones that deliver the most emissions-savings at the lowest cost to consumers. We believe that in some countries, such as the United States, the best option right now is natural gas. The U.S. EIA found that of the 1.6 billion metric tonnes of CO 2 emissions avoided in the U.S. power sector from 25 to 213, more than 6 percent came from substituting natural gas for coal and petroleum, while less than 4 percent came from growth in non-carbon generation, particularly renewables such as wind and solar. The idea that natural gas, a fossil fuel, would be a powerful tool for reducing emissions might seem counterintuitive, but reliable gas avoids the intermittency issue and emits up to 6 percent less CO 2 than coal when used for power generation. 17% While economic growth continues to widen the gap globally, about 1 in 6 people still live without any electricity, based on IEA data. 42

In the United States, utilities and other power generators increased their use of natural gas over the past decade as they took advantage of the rapid growth in domestic unconventional gas production. During this period, the attractive economics of gas-fired power generation encouraged U.S. power generators to substitute natural gas for coal, and this fuel-switching helped produce a 15 percent drop in CO 2 emissions from the power sector. Other nations have taken a more top-down approach favoring certain technologies over others to change the mix of fuels used to generate electricity. For instance, Germany has implemented strong policy measures to increase use of renewables, while also phasing out nuclear power. Both the U.S. and Germany have seen a drop in emissions. Based on government data, by 212, the CO 2 intensity of delivered electricity in the U.S. was lower than that of Germany because the U.S. saw an improvement about three and a half times that of Germany between 25 and 212. While these transitions were occurring, electricity costs have risen much faster in Germany than the U.S. over the past decade. Electricity generated using natural gas avoids intermittency issues and emits up to 6 percent less CO 2 than coal. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 43

Charting the numbers Electricity generation projections Electricity demand by sector Thousand TWh 4 4 Of all the energy-demand sectors we study when preparing The Outlook, power generation is perhaps the most dynamic and complex. It is the fastest-growing sector, driven by strong global demand for electricity. It uses the broadest array of fuels: coal, gas, nuclear, wind, solar and hydroelectric. It is also the sector most impacted by policies seeking to address climate change. 3 2 Transportation Residential & commercial 3 2 The most striking development in power generation is expected to be the shift away from coal the dominant energy source in this sector and the rise in cleaner fuels such as natural gas and renewables. 1 Industrial 1 But as our charts show, trends are likely to vary widely by region. Each nation will choose a different mix of fuels for making electricity, and different paths to reducing CO 2 and other GHGs associated with power generation. 2 22 24 1 2 44 DATA AS OF 9/22/215 OtherIndustry Other Residential Commercial Transportation Global electricity "" demand seen 4562 rising 1775 by 3643 348 188 65 percent 214-24; 2.54555 times 187 faster than 3719 3153 197 473 1751 3924 3266 23 overall energy demand 4954 1835 457 3361 213 Residential and commercial 5223 electricity 1934 4184 3498 217 435 551 1987 demand rises by 7 percent 214-24; 3672 219 industry up 55 percent 5842 226 4479 389 224 6197 2118 4663 3979 234 Industrial growth eases post-23 6269 2136 as China s 4762 41 23 646 2156 4853 416 232 economy shifts from manufacturing "1" 6652 233 5112 4291 246 Transportation electricity demand 749 2398 doubles 5138 4326 263 7196 2472 5281 4421 269 214-24, but only 2 percent of total use 7421 2533 5456 4511 28 7559 261 5537 4563 288 7684 2655 57 4686 296 7919 2691 5834 48 35 8148 2711 5985 4913 314 843 2738 614 528 323 8657 2753 6292 5145 332 "2" 893 2761 6445 5259 342

Electricity demand by region Thousand TWh 4 4 Per capita electricity demand by region MWh per person 15 4 214 Rest of World United States 3 2 1 United States Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD32 3 2 1 2 22 24 2 21 DATA AS OF 9/22/215 OECD32 China India Key Growth Rest of World 85 percent of the "2" rise in 8335.8 electricity 1138.6 demand 376.3 will 1235.5 come from 213.1 non-oecd 8381.5 1241.1 382 1235.9 219.1 8545.5 138.2 45.7 135.1 2236.9 China leads growth; will 8657.8 use one-fourth 164.9 433.5 of the 138.8 world s electricity 2341.4 by 24 884.4 1859.5 463.2 1455 2439.3 941.2 2126.7 489.5 153.2 255.7 India s electricity usage 996.7 to soar, 2446.6 rising 185 543.3 percent 166.1214-24 2687.5 9318.9 2817.2 588.5 1694.8 2771.3 Brazil, Indonesia have largest gains among Key Growth countries 9293 2989.1 618.8 175.9 2844.8 U.S. share of global electricity 892.5 3222.9 demand 669.2 falls from 1768.1 2 percent 2829.9 to "21" 9318.8 3629.1 727.2 195.6 322.9 15 percent 214-24 9222.6 455.4 83 1994 398.7 9158.9 4329.5 868.9 277.9 324 9158.2 4659.7 947.9 2147 3288.8 981.5 4827.4 134.3 2229.5 3375.1 9161.1 4939.1 1121.6 231.8 3489.1 9253.9 5115.9 1184.6 242.6 3592.8 9354.2 5275.9 1243.5 2494 373 9447.3 5471.8 Visit 1299.9 exxonmobil.com 2591.9 3821 9524.6 5667 1352.9 2694.1 394.4 "22" 9611.8 5864.6 146.2 2797.1 458.4 22 23 235 24 Key Growth India China OECD32 United States "2" 3595.1 3563.4 3641 3671.2 3725.2 3818.4 3824.5 3929.2 3913.9 3729.6 "21" 3898.5 3888.8 3836 3853.4 3879.9 3844.1 3879.6 3927 397.9 41.8 1 5 198 21 24 2 21 22 23 235 24 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER TTENTION: OWNER 3 2 1 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE NAME Paul Tanaka 1 United States Europe Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. 5Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not China Key Growth India DATA AS OF 9/22/215 US Europe China India KeyGrow "198" 9.242 3.629.262.13.596 9.358 3.647.265.139.618 8.961 3.648.278 U.S. leads per capita electricity use, driven by air conditioning 9.15 3.742 and.295.144.15.653.678 9.662 3.93.313.166.727 larger homes AS OF 9.776 4.48.336.175.759 9.791 4.14.362.188.82 China s Oct. per 27, capita 215 electricity use is seen climbing 7 1.163 percent 4.271.395.2.832 1.534 4.368.428.216.864 214-24 APPROVED BY Key Growth 1.711 4.438.451.233.9 "199" 1.895 4.481.447.248.928 Paul Tanaka India 11.297 4.5.55.266.948 By 24, China will use as much electricity per person 11.183 as 4.459 Europe.554.279.976 China 11.416 4.428.67.294 1.21 India, XXA Key 15XOM Growth Europe also EO-climb as incomes, urbanization 11.595 and 4.475.669.314 1.58 15 industry ElecDmndByReg.ai expand United States XXA Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 11.787 4.589.74.33 1.11 11.97 4.727.752.33 1.176 12.7 4.789.775.344 1.234 12.242 4.877.794.355 1.248 12.422 4.939.833.36 1.273 "2" 12.741 5.79.92.361 1.326 12.54 5.177.976.361 1.35 12.659 5.22 1.78.377 1.355 12.655 5.321 1.246.396 1.412 12.722 5.426 1.435.417 1.465 12.921 5.494 1.631.434 1.517 12.817 5.556 1.866.475 1.569 13.44 5.594 2.138.58 1.633 12.871 5.619 2.256.527 1.663 12.158 5.333 2.421.562 1.656 "21" 12.63 5.56 2.713.63 1.76 12.481 5.463 3.17.658 1.816 45 12.222 5.472 3.25.73 1.866 12.189 5.436 3.433.757 1.91 12.172 5.3 3.534.817 1.949

Electricity generation projections Share of global electricity generation Share of TWh Global capacity GW 15 Oil Other renewables 24 214 Coal 1 Capacity Wind and solar 5 Nuclear Gas Effective utilization 214 24 Nuclear 214 24 Wind 214 24 Solar 46 DATA AS OF 9/22/215 World shifting to cleaner fuels for electricity Global nuclear, wind, solar all see big capacity additions Global GW Installed "214" "24" generation, led by gas Nuclear 372 69 DATA AS OF 9/22/215 Nuclear capacity to grow by 85 percent 214-24, Wind 364 1281 Coal s share to shrink while Coal natural Gas gas, Nuclear nuclear, Wind & Solar Other Renewables led by China Oil Solar 195 925 wind, solar gain "214" 8354 4395 2186 748 3937 928 AS OF Intermittency Global limits GW the Productive utilization Capacity of wind, solar "214" capacity "24" "24" 9351 9353 4775 3836 5713 826 Nuclear Nov. 11, 215 286 612 Coal provides about 3 percent of world s electricity in Globally, less than Wind 3 percent of wind capacity is 73 utilized; 353 APPROVED BY 24, vs. 4 percent in 214 solar less than Solar 2 percent Paul Tanaka 29 163 Oil Oil Wind, solar provide more than 1 percent of electricity Wind, solar provide less electricity in 24 than nuclear Other Renewables Other Renewables by 24, vs. 4 percent in 214 XXA 15XOM EOdespite 3 times the capacity Wind & Solar Wind & Solar ElecDmndGnrtnFuel3.ai Shift to cleaner fuels driven by tighter CO2 Nuclear Nuclear IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA emissions and air quality policies 15 214 Gas Coal 24 Gas Coal 1 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER : OWNER NAME Paul Tanaka Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. 24 214 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER TTENTION: OWNER AS OF Oct. 2 APPROVED Pau XXA 1 ElecG IN ENER NAME Paul T Data list is us white chart, template for are cut and p white templa However, the the database data; it is a p human. There thoroughly p

Electricity generation by region Thousand TWh 12 Two paths to CO₂ reduction U.S. generation share, Germany generation share, percent percent 1 Oil Other renewables CO₂ intensity of consumed electricity, grams of CO₂ per kilowatt hour delivered 8 1 8 6 4 2 Other renewables Wind and solar Nuclear Gas 8 12 6 1 4 8 6 2 Wind and solar Nuclear Other Renewables Solar/Wind NUCLEAR Gas GAS COAL OIL Coal 6 4 2 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 OECD32 China India Key Growth Rest of World Coal Oil 4 25 212 25 212 2 25 212 25 212 United States Germany Source: EIA, UBA Mix of electricity generation sources will vary The U.S. and DATA Germany AS OF illustrate 11/12/215 how different options are available to reduce CO 2 emissions significantly by region from power US generation Gen Share DATA AS OF 9/22/215 AS OF AS OF Coal Gas Nuclear Solar/Wind Other Renewables Oil OECD32 to lead the Oil shift Coal from coal; Gas sees big Nuclear Solar/wind Other The Renewables U.S. saw "25" a shift 1927 to natural Oct. 7 gas, 27, much 215 725 smaller growth 17 in wind, solar 323 126 Nov. 12, 215 gains in gas, "1" wind, 247 solar3272 277 246 265 1413 "212" 1476 APPROVED 1136 BY 72 137 337 29 APPROVED BY "25" 94 2249 2846 227 1185 Germany 1567targeted rising use of wind, solar, while phasing out nuclear power Germany Gen Share Paul Tanaka Paul Tanaka China looks "4" to nuclear, 57 renewables, 1189 3519 gas to 2293 23 1674 Both nations power Coal sectors Gas cut CO Nuclear meet electricity "1" growth 16 287 6 64 39 644 2 intensity, Solar/Wind but the U.S. Other dropped Renewables about 3.5 Oil times as much "25" 264 XXA 6615XOM 145 EO- 25 32 1 XXA 15XOM EO "25" 7 3991 391 618 586 U.S. power-related 1389 "212" CO 25 2 emissions 68 fell 15 87 percent 25-212, 67 while Germany s 63 fell 7 less India s coal-fired "4" electricity 3 3818 use more 824 than doubles 1353 123 151 ElecFuelMixByReg.ai USGermGenSh than 5 percent 214-24"1" 14 491 85 2 15 13 DATA AS OF 11/12/215 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON P "25" 11 1274 84 56 118 2 US 25 634 Key Growth "4" and Rest 7 of 1973 World draw 125 on gas when 231 33 31 US 212 529 NAME NAME domestically "1" available 252 375 73 28 6 514 Germany 25 611 Paul Tanaka Paul Tanaka Germany 212 584 "25" 363 69 1392 66 152 71 "4" 338 118 289 268 338 956 Data list is used to drive the black "1" 322 557 122 231 697 4 Oil 8 white chart, which is then used as template for the color chart. Bars VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER TTENTION: OWNER Data list is used to drive 6 the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template Oil and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT 5 driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, Other Renewables the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not "25" 443 841 1972 41 56 992 "4" 421 1263 2796 63 168 1272 Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe 35 exxonmobilperspectives.com 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 CHART OWNER are cut and pasted from the black white template and are highly acc However, the color chart is NOT l 7 the database and is NOT driven 47 Other Renewables data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt human. Therefore, the editor need thoroughly proof the final artwork Follow @exxonmobil VERSION FILE INFO TTENTION: OWNER

Lowering emissions Energy and human progress are closely linked, with expanding access to reliable, affordable and cleaner fuels helping power substantial gains in living standards over the past two centuries. Today, as always, a key element of continuing to advance human progress is managing the environmental impact of that progress. In coming decades, although populations and living standards will rise significantly, ongoing improvements to energy efficiency and increasing efforts to use lower-carbon fuels wherever practical will slow the growth in energy-related CO 2 emissions. In our view, global CO 2 emissions are likely to peak around 23, and then begin declining. 48

Emissions As people and nations look for ways to reduce risks of global climate change, they will continue to need practical solutions that do not jeopardize the affordability or reliability of the energy they need. The 215 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris highlighted this important issue. Many nations are already reducing their level of CO 2 emissions relative to their GDP. By 24, the carbon-intensity of the global economy is likely to fall by half, with substantial contributions from OECD and non-oecd nations alike. Energy efficiency gains are expected to be a major contributor to this achievement, supported by a gradual but significant transition to less-carbon-intensive energy types. As a result of these changes, we expect global energy-related CO 2 emissions to peak around 23, and then begin declining. Global CO 2 emissions are expected to be only about 1 percent higher in 24 versus 214, despite the fact that population will have risen by about 25 percent and global GDP will have more than doubled. OECD leads transition in emissions For purposes of The Outlook, we continue to assume that governments will enact policies that impose rising costs on energy-related CO 2 emissions, reaching an implied cost in OECD nations of about $8 per tonne in 24. China and other leading non-oecd nations are expected to trail OECD policy initiatives. Energy-related CO 2 emissions already are falling in OECD nations, where efficiency and cleaner fuels are more than offsetting the rate of economic growth. Emissions in the OECD are projected to fall by about 2 percent from 214 to 24, with the OECD s share of global emissions falling from less than 4 percent to less than 3 percent. Europe will likely remain the least carbon-intensive economy of any major region. In the non-oecd however, CO 2 emissions are expected to rise one-third by 24. China s emissions are likely to peak by 23, and then decline by 1 percent to 24, when its share of global emissions will be about 25 percent, more than double that of the United States or India. Emissions will continue to rise in India and other developing countries through 24, but around 23, the downward trends in the OECD and China are expected to more than offset those increases. By 24, the carbon intensity of the global economy is likely to fall by 1/2. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 49

Options for addressing long-term climate change risks Progress on energy and climate objectives requires practical approaches that will contribute to both. Practical solutions will be not only reliable and affordable, but also provide economic value. In this regard, nations and consumers will want to target their limited financial resources to get the best value on energy-related purchases while also minimizing the cost of GHG emissions reduction. Under a cost-of-carbon approach, the incentives for reducing GHG emissions as well as the most cost-effective solutions would become readily apparent. For example, in the United States it is clear that improving the fuel efficiency of conventional gasoline vehicles will reduce more emissions at a lower cost than expanding the use of expensive electric vehicles. Also, in the power generation sector, substituting natural gas for coal is a far more cost-effective option for curbing emissions than building new wind or solar facilities for electricity generation. By focusing on market-based solutions, governments can avoid requiring consumers and taxpayers to pay for high-cost solutions when better options abound. We expect that in most nations, the biggest value will not be found via subsidies or mandates of high-cost alternative technologies, but rather through open-market competition among a wide range of practical, lower-carbon options. To that end, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office suggested years ago that putting a transparent and reliable price on CO 2 emissions would be society s most cost-effective approach to reduce emissions. Hydrofracking has certainly changed the energy dynamic considerably. You are absolutely right, it has created an opportunity for a shift away from coal into natural gas, and that shift has been enormously beneficial from a clean air perspective, as well as from a climate perspective. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy 5

Need for flexibility, transparency The challenge of meeting global energy needs and managing the risks of climate change is real and daunting. But it is not the only challenge. In fact, the United Nations recently adopted a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals, with action on climate of course representing one of these goals. Other goals include improving conditions for people in all countries related to poverty, health, education, clean water and sanitation, economic opportunities, and community and social development. Since every society and every person have limited resources to address their various priorities, it s no wonder that everyone wants to avoid paying more than necessary for something to meet a particular need. The logical drive to pursue the most cost-effective options helps ensure that precious financial resources are managed wisely, and not wasted on one priority to the detriment of other needs. Because the costs are substantial, nations have a compelling reason to adopt climate policies that promote transparency and market-based solutions. The long-term nature of the climate challenge also promises an evolution of available solutions as knowledge expands, technology advances and markets adapt. Therefore, policies that promote innovation and flexibility afforded by competition and free markets will be critical to help ensure the world pursues the most cost-effective opportunities to meet people s energy needs and reduce global GHG emissions. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 51

Charting the numbers Emissions projections Energy-related CO₂ emissions by region Billion metric tonnes 4 Energy-related CO₂ emissions per capita Tonnes per person 12 Rest of World 1 Forecasting emissions requires us to consider not just how much energy the world will consume, but also the carbon intensity of the fuels that people and businesses choose to meet their needs. We also must consider how various climate-change policies might evolve. 3 2 Key Growth India China 8 6 4 52 As shown by the chart to the right, global energy-related CO 2 emissions are expected to peak around 23 and then decline. A host of trends contribute to this downturn, including slowing population growth, maturing economies, and a shift to cleaner fuels like natural gas and renewables (some voluntary, and some the result of policy). But the biggest factor actually is energy efficiency, which continues to improve as technology evolves. Better efficiency in vehicles, industries, buildings and elsewhere enables the world to do more with less energy and therefore fewer emissions. 1 199 215 24 DATA AS OF 9/22/215 OECD32 OECD32 China India Key Growth ROW "199" 1911.7 2266.2 594 1722.7 5812 198.1 2373.5 633.1 1833.4 563.6 1958.1 2482.1 665.8 1911.6 5315.9 1131.2 2655.4 687.6 1959.3 543 Global CO 2 emissions to peak around 23, then decline 1127.7 2792.7 728 272.1 474.7 11383.7 336.3 781.9 2155.9 4728.9 11742.3 386.2 82.7 2277.6 4687.2 11897.1 385 858.4 2355 4649.4 11885.8 3131.7 869.8 24 4652.7 11967.5 345.2 936.7 2444.8 4685.9 "2" 12263.2 3349.6 964.4 2498.3 4759.9 12244.7 3427 973.6 255 483.8 12262.1 3634.6 18.1 2617 49 12463 4233 135.3 2741.7 584.5 12612.3 492.6 1128.5 2871.2 5233.7 12655.6 5481.2 1187.9 31.1 536.9 1269.5 63.5 1273.8 378 556.6 12766.2 6431.3 1384.6 3246.8 5629 12449 662.7 1481.4 3384 5812.7 11698.3 6953.3 1659.4 3349 5673.1 "21" 1294.4 7421.2 1741.4 3498.4 5956.4 1194.3 8126.7 1823.7 3587.5 6142.7 1175.3 8396.3 1946.2 3724.4 6275.7 11798.8 8713 237.3 3754.5 6312.7 11682.2 8729.7 2117.9 3854.5 6297.1 11583.6 8784 229.1 3939.2 6384 1152 8894.1 2278.4 413.4 6459.7 11473.2 8913 2346.5 487.4 656.3 Emissions already falling in OECD32; will drop 2 percent 214-24 China s surge in emissions is slowing; seen peaking around 23 Emissions keep rising to 24 in India, Key Growth, Rest of World Efficiency, lower-carbon fuels are key factors in curbing emissions 4 3 2 14 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 OECD32 China India Key Rest Growth of World OECD32 has highest per capita emissions, AS OF but falls 3 percent DATA 214-24 AS OF Oct. 9/29/215 2, 215 By 24, China s per capita APPROVED CO "214" 2 emissions BY "24" will be nearing OECD32 levels 1.895 Todd Onderdonk 7.74 China 6.391 6.621 India, Key Growth India per capita XXA emissions 1.67215XOM EO- 2.486 grow to 24 Key Growth CO2EmissByReg.ai 3.37 3.953 ROW 2.676 2.514 Global per capita emissions fall IN 1 ENERGY percent OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 214-24 on efficiency, cleaner fuels NAME 12 Todd Onderdonk ROW 1 Key Growth 8 India 6 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not JUST the data list. Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs 24 21

Len Shelton Public and Government Affairs Len Shelton Public and Go Energy-related CO₂ intensity Tonnes per thousand dollars of GDP (21$) 1.2 1. United States CO₂ abatement costs Improved gasoline vehicles Gas into power.8 Nuclear.6.4 Hybrid vehicles Carbon capture and sequestration Wind.2 Solar Electric cars 14 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 OECD32 China India Key Rest Growth of World 1 1 2 8 9 Range of costs to eliminate one tonne of CO₂ (Dollars per tonne) Economies in all regions will become less CO 2 emissions-intense DATA AS through OF 9/29/215 24 OECD32 has the lowest CO 2 "214" emissions "24" relative to the size OECD32 of its economy.262.119 China 1.78.323 OECD32 economies India today are.973 about 75 percent.44 less CO 2 emissions-intense Key Growth than.499 China s.315 ROW.676.383 China s emissions intensity improves as coal use drops, economy less reliant on industry India s emissions intensity to 1.2 improve more than 5 percent even as coal use increases 1..8 Visit exxonmobil.com ImprGas Many options exist to reduce CO 2 emissions, each with different costs VERSION NAME Electric Cars 836 1 CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER AS OF Best value is improving DATA AS fuel OF economy Oct. 9/29/215 2, of 215 conventional gasoline vehicles APPROVED BY Switching to natural gas (vs. coal) Low in power generation High also offers low-cost results ImprGas -92 Todd Onderdonk -98 Solar energy is about Gas intopwr double the 1 cost of wind for curbing 33 emissions (vs. coal) in U.S. Nuclear XXA 615XOM EO- 66 Electric cars offer Hybrid the worst return, costing upwards of $8/tonne of CO 2 abated EmissPerGDP.ai 77 83 Sequestration 71 136 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA Wind 52 151 Solar 111 225 24 214 Gas intopwrsubscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com FILE INFO Todd Onderdonk Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not JUST the data list. Follow @exxonmobil VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER AS OF Nov. 5 7pm APPROVED BY Todd Onde XXA 15XOM CO2AbateC IN ENERGY OUTLOO NAME Todd Onderd Data list is used to drive th white chart, which is then template for the color char are cut and pasted from th white template and are hig However, the color chart is the database and is NOT d data; it is a piece of artwor human. Therefore, the edit thoroughly proof 53 the final JUST the data list.

Fulfilling future supply Our energy choices have never been as plentiful or diverse. Thanks to advances in energy technology, today we have access to shale gas and tight oil from North America, LNG from the Middle East, oil from deepwater fields off the African coast, and arrays of wind and solar facilities. Our growing capacity to move energy between nations even ones on opposite sides of the world also will expand energy choice and energy security. All of the world s energy sources will be needed to meet rising demand to 24, but there will be a marked shift toward cleaner fuels, particularly natural gas. Oil will remain the world s top energy source, essential for transportation and chemical production. 54

As a result of advances in technology, and the cumulative accomplishments of the men and women of the energy industry over decades, the world today has an abundance of supply and an unprecedented range of energy choices. For example, until this century, energy producers had not yet figured out how to economically tap the vast amounts of oil and natural gas that were known to exist in shale and other tight rock formations. But by 24, these unconventional and other technology-driven sources of oil and gas are expected to meet about one-fifth of the world s energy needs. In 214, the global economy consumed about 55 quadrillion BTUs of energy equivalent to using the energy in about 12 billion gallons of gasoline every single day. And demand is projected to rise by another 25 percent through 24, as the impact of population growth and rising living standards more than offsets the energy saved through improved efficiency. We expect that oil, natural gas and coal the three fuels that together built the modern economy will continue to meet almost 8 percent of the world s energy needs through 24. These fuels are reliable, affordable, versatile, transportable and provide a lot of energy in a relatively small volume. However, the desire to address the risks of climate change at both an individual and government level is likely to produce significant changes in global energy supply as consumers shift toward energy sources that help curb CO 2 emissions. All practical and economically viable energy sources, both conventional and unconventional, will be needed to continue meeting global energy needs because the scale of this demand is tremendous. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 55

Oil remains top fuel, gas moves to the No. 2 position ahead of coal We expect oil to remain the world s largest energy source, essential to transportation and as a feedstock for the petrochemicals industry. Global demand for oil and other liquids is projected to rise by about 2 percent from 214 to 24. Coal, currently the world s second-largest fuel, is expected to see global demand peak around 225 and then begin to decline. This decline will be led by the industrial and power generation sectors, as businesses improve energy efficiency and switch to fuels with lower CO 2 emissions. By 24, coal will account for 2 percent of global energy demand, down from about 25 percent in 214. Natural gas, on the other hand, is projected to continue to expand rapidly surpassing coal as the world s second-largest fuel in about a decade. We expect 4 percent of the projected growth in global energy demand from 214 to 24 will be met by natural gas. Nuclear, renewables see strong growth Nuclear energy is a mainstay of electricity generation in many countries and accounts for about 1 percent of all the world s electricity today. Because nuclear plants provide reliable electricity while emitting no CO 2, and expanding nuclear capacity enables nations to diversify their energy supplies, nuclear will see strong gains in coming decades. We expect the demand for nuclear energy to more than double from 214 to 24, with China accounting for nearly half this growth. Modern renewable fuels wind, solar and biofuels also will grow rapidly. Globally, these sources will more than triple from 214 to 24. The largest volume growth will come from wind, which by 24 is projected to supply about 2 percent of the world s energy and nearly 1 percent of its electricity. Together, nuclear and renewables are likely to account for almost 4 percent of the growth in global energy demand from 214 to 24. Natural gas is a versatile fuel that can run everything from electricity generators to industrial kilns to residential hot-water heaters to delivery trucks.. Gas is abundant and performs better than coal in terms of air quality and CO 2 emissions. Global demand for natural gas is projected to rise by 5 percent from 214 to 24. Oil, natural gas and coal are expected to provide about 8% of global energy through 24. 56

Growing global trade in energy helps consumers In addition to expanding its energy supplies, the world also continues to enhance its ability to trade energy among regions. Much of this growth is related to the expanding global LNG network the liquefaction plants, tankers and re-gasification terminals that enable abundant natural gas to reach markets around the world. Through 24, most of the world s oil and gas exports will likely be headed to the Asia Pacific region, where demand for energy is expected to grow far faster than local production. We anticipate that several regions of the world will be both importers and exporters, a fact that highlights the important role of trade in optimizing energy flows in a global marketplace. Global fuel demand in 24 projections Quadrillion BTUs 25 2 15 1 5.7% Oil Average annual growth rate 214 24 Average of all fuel types:.9% 1.6% Gas.2% Coal.3% Biomass 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Nuclear Solar/ Hydro/geo wind/biofuels 24 214 DATA AS OF 9/15/215 "24" "214" Oil remains the world s top fuel, but natural gas grows the most Oil 223.4 Oil 187 Oil remains essential Gas to transportation 18.6 and Gas chemicals 12.3 Coal 141.8 Coal 147.6 Gas overtakes Biomass coal, driven by need 56.8for cleaner, Biomass reliable fuel 53 Nuclear 54.1 Nuclear 25.9 Nuclear, renewables see strong growth; total more than 2 percent Solar / Wind / Biofuels 24 Solar / Wind / Biofuels 7.1 of supply by Hydro 24 / Geo 22.4 Hydro / Geo 16.1 All energy sources needed to meet rising demand to 24 and beyond 25 2 214 25 24 15 Visit exxonmobil.com 2 Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 1 57

Liquids Ever since the first modern oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania more than 15 years ago, advances in technology have continued to expand the world s supply of oil and other liquid fuels. Global liquids output is seen rising to 112 million barrels a day in 24, up from 93 MBD in 214, keeping pace with a projected 2 percent rise in global demand. Both non-opec and OPEC nations are expected to play key roles in delivering this additional supply. While conventional oil deposits continue to account for the majority of the world s production, we expect most of the growth through 24 to come from technology-driven supplies including tight oil, NGLs, oil sands and deepwater production. These supplies are projected to represent 4 percent of global liquid production by 24, up from 25 percent in 214. Output from developed conventional oil fields is expected to decline through 24, but will be mostly offset by gains from the development of new conventional fields. In fact, new conventional crude and condensate development will likely represent almost 3 percent of global liquid production by 24. Significant growth from tight oil Barely on the radar screen a decade ago, tight oil oil dispersed in shale and other tight rock formations is expected to account for 1 percent of world liquids production by 24. Most of this oil will come from North America, the birthplace of the tight oil industry. Around 21, U.S. producers took the same techniques that had unlocked shale gas horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing and applied them to tight oil, with tremendous success. In fact, U.S. crude output has risen by about 75 percent since 21. The past few years have seen considerable improvements in tight oil well performance and drilling efficiency, and tight oil is now an established, globally competitive source of liquid supply. Unlike some conventional or more complex projects, tight oil production also can adjust relatively quickly to changes in demand. U.S. tight liquids production in 214 surpassed the total production of any OPEC country except Saudi Arabia. 58

Natural gas liquids, deepwater, oil sands also gain share We expect production of NGLs to also expand significantly through 24. Because NGLs are produced in association with natural gas, rising gas production will increase supply of NGLs, particularly in North America due to shale. NGLs will likely account for nearly 15 percent of global liquids supply in 24, up from 1 percent in 214. Deepwater production is seen increasing by around 7 percent from 214, with global output exceeding 1 MBD by 24. Key deepwater areas include Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Supply from oil sands is also projected to grow. By 24, oil sands production is expected to grow to nearly 7 MBD, which is about two and a half times higher than it was in 214. Near-term gains will likely be led by Canada, while longer-term growth will likely be led by Venezuela. Tight oil will account for 1 percent of the world s liquids production by 24. Technology-driven supplies including tight oil, natural gas liquids, oil sands and deepwater production will represent 4 percent of global liquids by 24. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 59

North America could emerge as an oil exporter Not only is oil production expanding, so is the amount of oil traded between nations; about half of global liquid-fuel demand is expected to continue to be met through international trade. This is positive news for consumers. By enabling supplies to flow smoothly between nations, a robust global trading network helps meet the need for liquid fuels efficiently and affordably. Also, it is important to remember that some nations can be both importers and exporters, depending on their mix of domestic production and refining capacity. Through 24, there are likely to be significant shifts in the global trade balance. One of the biggest will be seen in North America, where liquids production is projected to climb by almost 4 percent through 24 on growth in tight oil, oil sands and NGLs. North America, which for decades had been an oil importer, is on pace to become a net exporter around 22. The United States should have the capacity to become a net liquids exporter around 225. Ever since Adam Smith there has been virtual unanimity among economists, whatever their ideological position on other issues, that international free trade is in the best interests of trading countries and of the world. Milton Friedman Another major shift will be seen in Asia Pacific. Already the world s largest oil-importing region, Asia Pacific s net imports are projected to rise by over 5 percent between 214 and 24 as domestic production stays flat but demand increases with rising prosperity creating new oil demand for transportation and other uses. We expect other regions to see less drastic shifts. Europe is likely to remain the second-largest oil importing region, with imports meeting 75 percent of demand by 24. The Middle East is expected to expand its lead as the world s largest oil-exporting region as production outpaces growth in demand. We anticipate that the Russia/Caspian region will remain the second-largest oil exporter. And in Africa, we expect liquids demand to grow significantly while supply remains relatively flat; as a result, Africa s supply and demand will be roughly balanced by 24. 4/5 of Asia Pacific oil needs will likely be fulfilled from imports in 24. 6

Scale of global energy supply is enormous Technology is not just expanding our daily oil production; it also continues to increase the amount of oil and liquid fuels we can count on for the future. In 1981, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that remaining global recoverable crude and condensate resources were 1 trillion barrels; today, the IEA estimates that it is 4.5 trillion barrels enough to meet global oil demand beyond the 21st century. By 24, the amount of resources yet to be produced will still be far higher than total production prior to 24, even with a 2 percent rise in global oil demand. Delivering global energy supply is a tremendous technological challenge and one that requires investment on a grand scale. Of the approximately $75 billion a year of upstream oil and gas investment the IEA estimates will be required, almost 85 percent will be needed to simply keep production at current levels. Yet the global oil and gas industry continues to demonstrate that through investment and innovation, it can keep pace with global energy needs. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 61

Charting the numbers In this year s Outlook, we continue to see a clear trend in liquid fuels: sources driven by advances in technology most recently oil from tight rock are becoming a mainstay of global supply. We see these sources as being instrumental in meeting rising oil demand for transportation and other purposes through 24. Liquids projections Liquids supply by type MBDOE 12 1 8 6 4 Biofuels Other NGLs Tight oil Oil sands Deepwater New conventional crude and condensate development Technology-driven supplies MBDOE 2 15 1 5 The largest technology-driven source is expected to continue to be NGLs, the liquids produced in association with natural gas. By 24, global NGL supply is projected to increase by around 7 percent from 214 levels. 2 2 22 24 Developed conventional crude and condensate 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 NGLs Tight oil Deepwater Oil sands 62 Global liquids production to rise by 2 percent 214-24 12 Growth comes mostly from Bio non-conventional supply 1 Other Tight oil reaches 1 percent of global liquids supply 8 in 24 NGLs Conventional oil still biggest, but drops to a 55 percent 6 share Tight 4 Sand Deepw 2 Undev 1 25 35 4 2 3 C+C NGLs, tight oil, deepwater, oil sands see DATA AS OF 9/18/215 strong gains DATA AS OF 9/18/2 C+C Undev Deepw Sand Tight NGLs Other Bio AS OF C+C Undev Deepw Tigh "" 66461 1754 Growth 762 in NGLs 5994 1484 and tight 456 oil enabled Sept. 3, by 215 "" 66461 1754 66229 1926 hydraulic 915 3 fracturing 6174 15 477 APPROVED BY 66229 1926 3 6524 2381 1174 2 5 6168 2927 511 Chad Harris 6524 2381 5 Rapid tight oil growth from 21 to 225 67559 2373 1293 1 6211 1583 542 24 67559 2373 1 6983 2538 Deepwater 1534 23 6658 growth 1893 driven 541 by Africa, XXA 15XOM North EO- 6983 2538 23 7166 2966 1645 43 6786 2153 614 LiqSplyByType.ai 7166 2966 43 America, South America 225 69647 3769 186 15 62 6871 2452 74 69647 3769 62 IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 6913 4215 Oil 1812 sands 91 growth 6996 391 mostly 877from Canada, Venezuela 6913 4215 91 21 69145 4612 1849 231 757 2453 1132 69145 4612 231 NAME 66689 5322 1952 351 7426 2572 1251 Chad Harris 66689 5322 351 1 "1" 67927 5415 2111 594 7776 3386 1424 "1" 67927 5415 594 67971 528 2247 143 8231 3566 1497 67971 528 143 67878 5313 2381 1849 8688 352 1484 67878 5313 1849 66941 1 5711 2487 2671 5 8937 469 1594 66941 1 5711 2671 66476 71 5959 2665 367 9475 385 166 66476 71 5959 367 65538 1249 6179 2833 469 1229 289 1619 65538 1249 6179 469 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER TENTION: OWNER Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not

Liquids trade balance by region Conventional crude and condensate Deepwater Oil sands Tight oil NGLs Other Demand MBDOE 45 Crude and condensate Crude and condensate resources resources Trillion barrels Trillion 6 barrels 6 5 5 3 Net exports Net imports 4 4 3 3 Remaining resource Remaining resource 15 2 2 1 1 Cumulative production Cumulative through production 24 through 24 1 2 3 4 North America 1 2 3 4 Latin America 1 2 3 4 Africa 1 2 3 4 Europe 1 2 3 4 Russia/Caspian 1 2 3 4 Middle East 1 2 3 4 Asia Pacific Source: IEA Source: IEA 24 24 North America swings to a net exporter as shale growth continues North America to export 5 million barrels a day by 24 Asia Pacific will need more oil imports to meet its surging demand By 24, about 8 percent of oil demand in Asia Pacific will be met by imports Middle East, Russia remain major oil exporters to 24, but Africa shifts Europe remains a net oil importer as its demand and production decline VERSION FILE INFO (Data on second Global page) oil resources are abundant AS OF Resource estimates keep rising as Nov. 5, 215 technologies DATA evolveas OF 11/1/215 DATA AS OF 11/1/215 APPROVED BY Technology has added tight oil, Cum Prod Resource Chad Harris "24" 2.81947932 Cum Prod 3.64281511 Resource deepwater, oil "24" sands 2.81947932 3.64281511 XXA 15XOM The EO-world has 15 years of supply LiqTradeBalnce2.ai at current demand levels XXA IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE 45 3 Visit exxonmobil.com Liquids Demand CHART OWNER TENTION: OWNER Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com NAME Chad Harris Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not Follow @exxonmobil 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 Resource Resource Cum Prod Cum Prod 63

Natural gas Global demand for natural gas is seen rising by 5 percent from 214 to 24, faster than most other fuels and more than twice as fast as oil. One reason is versatility. Natural gas can run generators that make electricity, or be used directly in homes, offices and factories. Gas also is emerging as a fuel for heavy-duty trucks and marine transportation. Additionally, a key reason why gas is growing so fast is its relatively low carbon content, which makes it an effective and proven tool for curbing CO 2 emissions, particularly in the electricity generation sector. Natural gas emits up to 6 percent less CO 2 than coal, currently the world s top fuel for generating electricity. Demand for natural gas is expected to grow in all regions of the world. Gas resources: abundant and geographically diverse The world has an abundance of natural gas. With production technologies that exist today including those that recently unlocked shale gas technically recoverable natural gas resources, as estimated by IEA, would last for over 2 years at current demand levels. By 24, we expect that only about 25 percent of total recoverable gas resources will have been produced, leaving the remaining 75 percent to serve longer-term needs. Natural gas is geographically diverse; North America, Latin America, Russia/Caspian, Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa each hold 1 percent or more of the world s remaining gas resources based on IEA estimates. In terms of production, every region except Europe will likely grow through 24, but we expect the largest gains in North America, where output is projected to rise by 65 percent due to unconventional gas. 4% of global energy demand growth from 214 to 24 is projected to be met by natural gas. 64

Unconventional gas shakes up the supply picture Unconventional gas resources have radically altered the supply picture in North America. By 24, we expect unconventional supplies to account for nearly 9 percent of North America gas production. Unconventional supply including shale gas, tight gas, coal bed methane and coal-to-gas is also anticipated to make an impact in other regions, notably Asia Pacific, where one-third of production will be unconventional by 24. In total, 6 percent of the projected rise in global natural gas demand is expected to be met by unconventional supply, mostly from North America, but also from Asia Pacific, which accounts for 2 percent of the projected growth in unconventional production. However, we expect conventionally-produced natural gas to remain the cornerstone of supply, meeting two-thirds of global demand in 24. Most of the projected 25 percent rise in conventional production to 24 is expected to come from Russia/Caspian, the Middle East and Africa. Of particular note is Africa, where we project that conventional gas production will more than double, mostly from development of resources in East Africa. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 65

Global trade, LNG expanding Inter-regional trading will play a key role in meeting natural gas demand through 24, particularly in the Asia Pacific region where demand is rising fastest. Nearly half the growth in global gas demand through 24 is expected to be met through inter-regional trade, most of it using LNG. Until the first LNG shipping and receiving terminals opened in 1964, inter-regional gas trading was confined to areas connected by pipeline. But with LNG, natural gas can be super-cooled to liquid form and safely shipped via tanker to receiving terminals anywhere in the world. LNG exports are expected to almost triple by 24, reaching nearly 1 BCFD. Most of this LNG will be headed to Asia Pacific. By 24, almost half of Asia Pacific s gas demand is likely to be satisfied by LNG, up from 35 percent in 214. Asia Pacific s gas imports rise to meet demand growth With a large and growing population and rapid economic growth, we expect Asia Pacific to see by far the largest rise in natural gas demand, with usage doubling from 214 to 24. As its demand rises, we see Asia Pacific becoming increasingly reliant on natural gas imports. By 24, Asia Pacific is expected to get more than 4 percent of its gas from other regions, and likely will *Equivalent have to overtaken energy used by Europe 91 tankers as the world s largest net gas importer. It is interesting to note that despite the strong growth in gas demand in Asia Pacific, even by 24 it is likely to remain the region with the lowest percentage of natural gas in its overall energy mix. Significant new LNG exports are expected from the United States, East Africa and Australia. However, with abundant global gas resources and many aspiring gas exporters, we expect LNG to remain a highly competitive market. We anticipate that low-cost supply will be a determining factor for new LNG supply sources, especially in the second half of The Outlook period as capacity expands. Inter-regional pipeline exports also are expected to grow, increasing by about 7 percent from 214 to 24 to about 4 BCFD; most of this growth is projected to come from the Russia/Caspian region, which serves both Europe and Asia. Europe s dependence on imports will likely increase as its local production declines. LNG exports expected to triple globally by 24. 66

North America emerges as a gas exporter While Asia s need for imports rises, a different story is developing in North America. A decade ago, North America was planning to import significant amounts of gas to meet its rising demand. But the advent of shale gas production over the past decade has reversed that picture. North America is on track to export natural gas from newly constructed LNG export facilities by 216, and by 24 it is expected to surpass Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East to become the world s second-largest gas exporter. We see the Russia/Caspian region remaining the world s largest gas exporter as its net exports more than double due to growth in both LNG and pipeline exports. Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com Follow @exxonmobil 67

Charting the numbers Natural gas has long been a staple of global energy supply. But its relatively low carbon content and the success of unconventional gas production has lifted gas to a new level of prominence on the world energy stage. Natural gas projections Gas trade balance by region Conventional production Unconventional production Demand BCFD 15 Net exports 125 1 75 5 Net imports 68 Demand for natural gas is rising much faster than overall energy demand; in fact, gas is poised to overtake coal as the world s second-largest energy source. Natural gas is a significant and growing fuel for power generation, as well as for the industrial, residential and commercial sectors. Gas is even gaining ground as a fuel for commercial transportation. Natural gas also is growing more global. Due to growth in LNG infrastructure and markets, the volume of natural gas being traded around the world continues to expand and is expected to be particularly critical to meeting demand in Europe and Asia Pacific. 15 125 1 75 25 1 2 3 4 North America 1 2 3 4 Latin America 1 2 3 4 Africa 1 2 3 4 Europe 1 2 3 4 Russia/Caspian 1 2 3 4 Middle East 1 2 3 4 Asia Pacific North America s gas exports grow as its unconventional production more than doubles Unconventional gas also makes its mark in Asia; one-third of production by 24 Europe s need for gas imports keeps rising as domestic output falls Asia Pacific gas production and imports grow to meet rapidly rising demand By 24, unconventional gas will account for about one-third of global gas production Demand VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER AS OF (Data on second page Nov. 4, 215 APPROVED BY Chad Harris XXA 15XOM EO- GasTradeBalnce.ai IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE NAME Chad Harris Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted from the black and white template and are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a human. Therefore, the editor needs to thoroughly proof the final artwork, not JUST the data list. X

Gas supply by source BCFD 6 5 4 3 LNG Pipeline Gas exports by region BCFD 5 4 3 2 Natural gas resources Thousand TCF 35 Thousand TCF 35 3 Natural gas resources 3 25 25 2 2 15 Remaining resource Remaining resource 2 Local production 15 1 1 21 22 23 24 1 1 25 4 1 25 4 Russia/ North Caspian America 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 1 25 4 Asia Middle Africa Rest Pacific East of World 1 5 5 Source: IEA 24 24 Cumulative production through 24 Cumulative production through 24 Source: IEA Global natural gas demand to rise by 5 percent 214-24 Rising gas demand met by LNG, pipelines, local production 6 LNG almost triples, primarily to serve Asia demand growth 5 LNG share doubles to almost 2 percent of gas demand in 24 4 Inter-regional natural gas pipeline exports rise by 7 percent 3 2 1 DATA Russia/Caspian AS OF 9/3/215 expands lead as top natural gas exporter Global natural gas resources are abundant AS OF AS OF Local Inter-reg LNG North America DATA emerges AS OF as a 9/21/215 major exporter Sept. due 3, to 215 Only a quarter DATA of global AS OF gas Oct. 11/1/215 resources 2, 215 "21" 287 19 3 unconventional 288 21 gas 33 "21" APPROVED "225" BY "24" will be produced by 24APPROVED BY Russia/Caspian 14.9 33.7 42.1 DATA AS OF 11/1/215 Cum Prod Rem Reso 294 22 32 Chad Harris Chad Harris Asia Pacific LNG North exports America grow,.1 mostly serving 1.5 intra- 28.5 Gas resources "24" equal more than 8.53951121 23.351 294 25 32 Cum 2 Prod years Rem Reso LNG Asia 293 demand23 Asia Pacific 33 1 2.2 21.9 XXA 15XOM EOof supply at current "24" demand XXA 8.53951121 15XOM EO- 23.3515 33 25 Middle East 32 11.1 14.4 2.7 Middle East gas Africa exports rise with 1.7 new pipeline GasSpplyBySrce.ai 9.5 and 2.4 Resource estimates keep GasExpByReg.ai rising Inter-reg 36 26 36 LNG investments ROW 2.5 IN 2.5 ENERGY OUTLOOK ON 1.4 PAGE XXA IN ENERGY OUTLOOK ON PAGE XXA 31 27 39 technologies evolve Africa 316 gas exports 27 about 42 double Technology has unlocked shale gas in the Local 323 27 44 NAME NAME 5 Chad Harris last decade 35 "22" 328 28 45 Chad Harris Rem Res 335 3 47 35 Data list is used to drive the black 24 and 3 341 31 49 Rem Reso white chart, which is then used as a 4 template for the color chart. Bars and lines Cum Pro 346 32 52 are cut and pasted from the black and 349 33 54 white template and are highly 225 accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to Cum Prod "225" 352 34 56 the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a 355 35 3 6 human. Therefore, the editor needs to Visit exxonmobil.com Subscribe exxonmobilperspectives.com 21 Follow @exxonmobil 69 358 36 63 VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER thoroughly proof the final artwork, not JUST the data list. VERSION FILE INFO CHART OWNER ATTENTION: OWNER Data list is used to drive the black and white chart, which is then used as a template for the color chart. Bars and lines are cut and pasted 3 from the black and white template and 25are highly accurate. However, the color chart is NOT linked to the database and is NOT driven by the data; it is a piece of artwork buiilt by a 25 human. Therefore, the editor needs to 2 thoroughly proof the final artwork, not JUST the data list.

Energy today and tomorrow With more people using energy to improve their lives, we estimate that global energy demand will be 25 percent higher in 24 than it was in 214. Meeting energy demand safely, reliably and affordably while also minimizing risk and environmental impact will require advanced technology and expanded trade and investment. It will require innovation. And it also will require smart, practical energy choices by governments, individuals and businesses. Understanding the factors that drive the world s energy needs and likely choices to meet those needs is the mission of The Outlook. By sharing The Outlook with the public, we hope to broaden that understanding among individuals, businesses and governments. Because energy matters to everyone, and we all play a role in shaping its future. 7

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Data 72 Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs, unless otherwise noted) Average annual change % change Share of total 214 225 214 214 225 214 Regions 2 21 214 225 24 225 24 24 225 24 24 214 225 24 World 418 525 557 643 73 1.3%.6%.9% 15% 9% 26% 1% 1% 1% OECD 225 23 225 227 22.1% -.2% -.1% 1% -3% -2% 4% 35% 31% Non-OECD 192 295 332 416 483 2.1% 1.% 1.5% 25% 16% 46% 6% 65% 69% Africa 22 3 33 43 6 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 31% 39% 83% 6% 7% 9% Asia Pacific 128 22 227 284 319 2.%.8% 1.3% 25% 12% 4% 41% 44% 45% China 47 97 116 147 153 2.2%.2% 1.1% 27% 3% 32% 21% 23% 22% India 19 29 34 47 63 3.% 2.% 2.4% 39% 34% 86% 6% 7% 9% Europe 78 81 75 74 7 -.1% -.4% -.3% -2% -6% -7% 14% 12% 1% European Union 72 73 67 65 6 -.3% -.5% -.4% -3% -8% -11% 12% 1% 9% Latin America 2 27 29 36 45 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 23% 23% 51% 5% 6% 6% Middle East 18 3 34 42 5 2.% 1.1% 1.5% 25% 18% 47% 6% 7% 7% North America 114 113 114 118 116.3% -.2%.% 4% -2% 1% 21% 18% 16% United States 96 94 95 96 92.1% -.3% -.1% 2% -5% -3% 17% 15% 13% Russia/Caspian 38 43 44 45 44.3% -.2%.% 4% -3% 1% 8% 7% 6% Energy by type - World Primary 418 525 557 643 73 1.3%.6%.9% 15% 9% 26% 1% 1% 1% Oil 157 179 187 28 223 1.%.5%.7% 11% 7% 19% 34% 32% 32% Gas 89 116 12 152 181 2.2% 1.1% 1.6% 27% 18% 5% 22% 24% 26% Coal 93 135 148 155 142.4% -.6% -.2% 5% -8% -4% 26% 24% 2% Nuclear 27 29 26 37 54 3.2% 2.6% 2.9% 42% 47% 19% 5% 6% 8% Biomass/waste 4 49 53 57 57.6%.%.3% 7% % 7% 1% 9% 8% Hydro 9 12 13 16 18 1.8%.8% 1.2% 21% 12% 36% 2% 3% 3% Other renewables 3 7 1 18 28 5.5% 3.1% 4.1% 81% 59% 187% 2% 3% 4% End-use sectors - World Residential/commercial Total 98 114 118 134 146 1.2%.6%.8% 14% 9% 24% 1% 1% 1% Oil 15 14 14 15 14.5% -.2%.1% 6% -2% 3% 12% 11% 1% Gas 21 24 24 27 3 1.1%.5%.8% 13% 8% 22% 21% 2% 2% Biomass/waste 29 33 34 35 32.2% -.6% -.2% 3% -8% -6% 29% 26% 22% Electricity 23 32 34 45 59 2.5% 1.8% 2.1% 31% 31% 72% 29% 34% 41% Other 1 11 11 12 11.4% -.6% -.2% 5% -9% -5% 1% 9% 7% Transportation Total 81 11 18 123 138 1.2%.8%.9% 13% 12% 28% 1% 1% 1% Oil 8 97 12 113 122.9%.5%.7% 11% 8% 2% 94% 92% 89% Biofuels 3 3 4 6 2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 38% 48% 14% 3% 4% 5% Gas 1 2 4 7 7.2% 4.5% 5.7% 116% 94% 319% 2% 3% 5% Other 1 1 1 1 2 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 31% 48% 94% 1% 1% 2% Industrial Total 15 193 27 246 265 1.6%.5%.9% 18% 8% 28% 1% 1% 1% Oil 5 57 6 7 78 1.5%.7% 1.% 18% 11% 31% 29% 29% 3% Gas 37 45 48 59 68 2.%.9% 1.4% 24% 14% 42% 23% 24% 26% Coal 27 43 46 51 44.9% -1.% -.2% 11% -14% -5% 22% 21% 16% Electricity 22 31 35 45 54 2.4% 1.3% 1.7% 29% 21% 56% 17% 18% 2% Other 14 17 19 2 21.4%.1%.2% 5% 2% 7% 9% 8% 8% Power generation - World Primary 144 193 27 245 281 1.5%.9% 1.2% 18% 15% 36% 1% 1% 1% Oil 12 1 11 1 8 -.9% -1.3% -1.1% -9% -17% -25% 5% 4% 3% Gas 31 46 47 62 76 2.6% 1.4% 1.9% 33% 23% 63% 23% 25% 27% Coal 62 88 97 1 95.2% -.3% -.1% 2% -5% -2% 47% 41% 34% Nuclear 27 29 26 37 54 3.2% 2.6% 2.9% 42% 47% 19% 13% 15% 19% Hydro 9 12 13 16 18 1.8%.8% 1.2% 21% 12% 36% 6% 7% 6% Wind 1 2 6 11 9.4% 4.% 6.2% 168% 79% 381% 1% 2% 4% Other renewables 4 8 11 14 19 2.7% 2.% 2.3% 35% 35% 82% 5% 6% 7% Electricity demand (terawatt hours) World 13216 1864 2548 26771 33855 2.4% 1.6% 1.9% 3% 26% 65% 1% 1% 1% OECD 861 976 9526 161 11582 1.%.6%.8% 11% 9% 22% 46% 4% 34% Non-OECD 4615 8897 1121 16161 22273 3.5% 2.2% 2.7% 47% 38% 12% 54% 6% 66%

Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total OECD 214 225 214 214 225 214 Energy by type 2 21 214 225 24 225 24 24 225 24 24 214 225 24 Primary 225 23 225 227 22.1% -.2% -.1% 1% -3% -2% 1% 1% 1% Oil 98 93 9 87 79 -.4% -.6% -.5% -4% -9% -12% 4% 38% 36% Gas 47 54 55 65 7 1.6%.5% 1.% 19% 8% 29% 24% 29% 32% Coal 43 42 4 29 16-2.8% -3.8% -3.4% -27% -44% -59% 18% 13% 7% Nuclear 23 24 2 23 27 1.3%.9% 1.1% 15% 15% 32% 9% 1% 12% Biomass/waste 7 9 1 9 8 -.2% -.7% -.5% -2% -1% -11% 4% 4% 4% Hydro 5 5 5 5 5.3%.3%.3% 4% 5% 9% 2% 2% 2% Other renewables 2 4 6 9 14 4.3% 2.7% 3.4% 59% 49% 136% 3% 4% 6% End-use sectors Residential/commercial Total 46 5 48 49 47.2% -.2%.% 2% -3% -1% 1% 1% 1% Oil 9 7 6 5 3-1.7% -2.4% -2.1% -17% -31% -42% 12% 1% 7% Gas 16 17 16 17 16.2% -.3% -.1% 2% -4% -2% 34% 34% 34% Biomass/waste 2 3 3 3 2 -.5% -1.7% -1.2% -5% -23% -27% 6% 5% 4% Electricity 17 21 2 22 24.7%.4%.6% 9% 7% 16% 43% 45% 5% Other 2 3 2 3 2.4% -.5% -.1% 5% -8% -3% 5% 5% 5% Transportation Total 55 58 58 56 53 -.2% -.4% -.3% -3% -5% -8% 1% 1% 1% Oil 55 56 55 53 48 -.4% -.7% -.6% -5% -9% -14% 96% 94% 89% Biofuels 2 2 2 3 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 16% 29% 5% 4% 4% 6% Gas 1 2 16.1% 6.6% 1.5% 415% 161% 1244% % 1% 4% Other 1 1.% 2.4% 1.8% 12% 43% 59% 1% 1% 1% Industrial Total 71 68 69 74 74.6%.%.3% 7% % 7% 1% 1% 1% Oil 29 27 27 28 27.4% -.1%.1% 4% -2% 2% 39% 38% 37% Gas 18 18 19 23 24 1.9%.2%.9% 22% 3% 27% 27% 31% 32% Coal 8 7 7 5 3-3.4% -2.8% -3.1% -32% -35% -56% 1% 7% 4% Electricity 12 12 12 14 15 1.4%.7% 1.% 16% 12% 3% 17% 19% 21% Other 4 4 4 4 4.% -.6% -.3% % -8% -8% 6% 6% 5% Power generation Primary 84 9 86 88 87.2%.%.1% 2% % 1% 1% 1% 1% Oil 5 3 3 1 1-6.1% -2.7% -4.2% -5% -34% -67% 3% 1% 1% Gas 13 2 19 25 29 2.2% 1.% 1.5% 28% 16% 48% 23% 28% 33% Coal 35 34 32 23 12-2.8% -4.1% -3.6% -27% -47% -61% 37% 27% 14% Nuclear 23 24 2 23 27 1.3%.9% 1.1% 15% 15% 32% 24% 27% 31% Hydro 5 5 5 5 5.3%.3%.3% 4% 5% 9% 5% 6% 6% Wind 1 2 3 6 7.5% 3.6% 5.3% 122% 71% 279% 2% 4% 7% Other renewables 3 4 6 7 7 1.3%.9% 1.1% 15% 14% 32% 7% 7% 9% General note on data tables: Rounding may lead to minor differences between totals and the sum of their individual parts. 73

Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total Non-OECD 214 225 214 214 225 214 Energy by type 2 21 214 225 24 225 24 24 225 24 24 214 225 24 Primary 192 295 332 416 483 2.1% 1.% 1.5% 25% 16% 46% 1% 1% 1% Oil 58 85 97 122 144 2.1% 1.1% 1.6% 26% 18% 49% 29% 29% 3% Gas 42 62 66 87 11 2.6% 1.6% 2.% 33% 26% 68% 2% 21% 23% Coal 5 93 18 126 126 1.4%.%.6% 17% % 16% 33% 3% 26% Nuclear 4 5 6 13 27 8.2% 4.8% 6.3% 139% 13% 385% 2% 3% 6% Biomass/waste 33 4 43 47 48.8%.1%.4% 9% 2% 11% 13% 11% 1% Hydro 4 7 9 11 13 2.4%.9% 1.6% 3% 15% 5% 3% 3% 3% Other renewables 1 3 4 9 15 7.% 3.6% 5.% 111% 7% 259% 1% 2% 3% End-use sectors Residential/commercial Total 52 64 7 85 98 1.8% 1.% 1.3% 21% 16% 4% 1% 1% 1% Oil 6 7 8 1 11 1.8%.7% 1.2% 22% 12% 36% 12% 12% 11% Gas 5 7 8 11 14 2.8% 1.6% 2.1% 36% 26% 71% 11% 13% 14% Biomass/waste 27 3 31 32 3.3% -.5% -.2% 3% -7% -4% 44% 38% 3% Electricity 6 11 14 23 36 4.6% 2.9% 3.6% 63% 55% 153% 2% 27% 36% Other 8 8 9 9 8.4% -.7% -.2% 5% -1% -5% 13% 11% 9% Transportation Total 26 43 51 67 85 2.5% 1.6% 2.% 32% 27% 68% 1% 1% 1% Oil 25 41 47 61 75 2.3% 1.4% 1.8% 29% 23% 59% 93% 91% 88% Biofuels 1 1 2 3 5.3% 3.6% 4.3% 76% 71% 2% 2% 3% 4% Gas 1 2 3 5 5.9% 3.9% 4.7% 88% 77% 232% 3% 4% 6% Other 1 1 1 2 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 41% 5% 11% 1% 2% 2% Industrial Total 79 124 139 172 191 2.%.7% 1.2% 24% 11% 38% 1% 1% 1% Oil 21 3 33 42 51 2.3% 1.2% 1.7% 29% 2% 55% 24% 25% 27% Gas 19 27 29 36 44 2.1% 1.3% 1.6% 26% 21% 52% 21% 21% 23% Coal 19 35 39 46 4 1.6% -.8%.2% 18% -12% 4% 28% 27% 21% Electricity 9 19 23 31 39 2.9% 1.5% 2.1% 36% 25% 7% 17% 18% 2% Other 1 13 15 16 17.5%.3%.4% 6% 4% 11% 11% 9% 9% Power generation Primary 6 13 121 157 194 2.4% 1.4% 1.8% 3% 23% 6% 1% 1% 1% Oil 7 7 8 9 7.3% -1.1% -.5% 3% -15% -12% 7% 6% 4% Gas 17 26 27 37 47 2.9% 1.6% 2.2% 37% 27% 75% 22% 24% 24% Coal 27 54 66 76 82 1.4%.5%.9% 17% 8% 26% 54% 49% 42% Nuclear 4 5 6 13 27 8.2% 4.8% 6.3% 139% 13% 385% 5% 9% 14% Hydro 4 7 9 11 13 2.4%.9% 1.6% 3% 15% 5% 7% 7% 7% Wind 1 2 5 12.9% 4.4% 7.9% 28% 91% 627% 1% 2% 2% Other renewables 1 3 5 8 12 4.2% 2.9% 3.4% 57% 53% 14% 4% 5% 6% 74

Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total 214 225 214 214 225 214 Regions 2 21 214 225 24 225 24 24 225 24 24 214 225 24 AFRICA Primary 22 3 33 43 6 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 31% 39% 83% 1% 1% 1% Oil 5 8 8 12 19 3.9% 2.8% 3.3% 52% 52% 131% 25% 29% 31% Gas 4 5 5 7 1 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 4% 46% 14% 16% 17% 18% Coal 3 4 4 5 7 1.9% 2.7% 2.4% 23% 49% 83% 12% 11% 12% Nuclear 1 2.% 13.5% 8.5% 24% 571% 732% % % 2% Biomass/waste 1 13 15 17 2 1.3% 1.% 1.1% 15% 16% 34% 46% 4% 33% Hydro 1 1 6.4% 3.4% 4.6% 97% 65% 225% 1% 2% 2% Other renewables 1 11.7% 5.7% 8.2% 238% 13% 677% % 1% 1% Demand by sector Total end-use (including electricity) 2 26 29 37 51 2.3% 2.% 2.2% 29% 35% 75% 1% 1% 1% Residential/commercial 9 12 14 18 23 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% 27% 28% 62% 48% 47% 45% Transportation 3 4 5 7 1 3.6% 2.6% 3.% 47% 46% 115% 17% 19% 21% Industrial 7 1 1 13 18 2.% 2.3% 2.1% 24% 4% 73% 35% 34% 35% Memo: electricity demand 1 2 2 4 7 4.9% 4.4% 4.6% 7% 9% 222% 7% 1% 14% Power generation fuel 1 4 6 6 9 16 4.% 3.8% 3.9% 54% 76% 172% 18% 22% 27% ASIA PACIFIC Primary 128 22 227 284 319 2.%.8% 1.3% 25% 12% 4% 1% 1% 1% Oil 43 57 62 75 85 1.6%.8% 1.2% 19% 13% 35% 27% 26% 27% Gas 12 21 24 38 51 4.1% 2.% 2.9% 55% 34% 18% 11% 13% 16% Coal 45 89 14 119 117 1.2% -.1%.4% 14% -2% 12% 46% 42% 37% Nuclear 5 6 4 13 24 12.% 4.1% 7.4% 249% 83% 539% 2% 5% 8% Biomass/waste 2 23 24 25 24.4% -.5% -.1% 5% -7% -3% 11% 9% 7% Hydro 2 4 5 7 7 2.6%.4% 1.4% 33% 7% 42% 2% 2% 2% Other renewables 1 2 3 7 12 7.% 3.4% 4.9% 111% 65% 249% 1% 2% 4% Demand by sector Total end-use (including electricity) 1 152 17 211 235 2.%.7% 1.3% 24% 11% 38% 1% 1% 1% Residential/commercial 33 41 44 53 6 1.8%.8% 1.2% 22% 12% 37% 26% 25% 26% Transportation 18 28 32 42 53 2.4% 1.5% 1.9% 29% 26% 63% 19% 2% 22% Industrial 49 83 94 116 122 2.%.3% 1.% 24% 5% 3% 55% 55% 52% Memo: electricity demand 12 24 3 43 56 3.3% 1.8% 2.5% 43% 31% 88% 18% 2% 24% Power generation fuel 1 41 77 91 119 144 2.4% 1.3% 1.8% 3% 21% 58% 4% 42% 45% EUROPE Primary 78 81 75 74 7 -.1% -.4% -.3% -2% -6% -7% 1% 1% 1% Oil 32 31 28 26 24 -.6% -.7% -.7% -7% -1% -16% 37% 35% 34% Gas 17 2 16 19 2 1.4%.4%.8% 17% 6% 23% 21% 25% 28% Coal 14 13 12 9 4-2.8% -4.6% -3.9% -27% -51% -64% 16% 12% 6% Nuclear 1 1 9 9 1 -.3%.6%.2% -4% 1% 6% 12% 12% 14% Biomass/waste 3 5 5 6 5.5% -.7% -.2% 5% -9% -5% 7% 8% 7% Hydro 2 2 2 2 2.%.2%.2% % 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% Other renewables 2 2 4 5 4.3% 2.2% 3.1% 6% 38% 12% 3% 5% 7% Demand by sector Total end-use (including electricity) 61 64 59 59 57.% -.3% -.2% 1% -5% -4% 1% 1% 1% Residential/commercial 18 21 19 2 19.5% -.4%.% 5% -6% -1% 32% 33% 33% Transportation 17 19 18 17 17 -.3% -.2% -.2% -3% -2% -5% 3% 29% 29% Industrial 25 24 23 23 21 -.1% -.4% -.3% -1% -6% -6% 39% 38% 38% Memo: electricity demand 1 12 11 12 13.8%.5%.6% 9% 7% 17% 19% 2% 23% Power generation fuel 1 29 32 3 29 28 -.1% -.2% -.2% -2% -3% -4% 39% 39% 4% 1 Share based on total primary energy 75

Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total 214 225 214 214 225 214 Regions 2 21 214 225 24 225 24 24 225 24 24 214 225 24 LATIN AMERICA Primary 2 27 29 36 45 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 23% 23% 51% 1% 1% 1% Oil 1 13 14 16 19 1.5%.9% 1.2% 17% 15% 35% 47% 45% 42% Gas 4 6 6 8 12 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 32% 44% 91% 21% 22% 26% Coal 1 1 1 2 2 2.4% 1.3% 1.8% 29% 22% 57% 4% 4% 4% Nuclear 5.1% 1.7% 3.2% 73% 3% 125% 1% 1% 1% Biomass/waste 3 4 5 5 5.6%.1%.3% 6% 2% 8% 15% 13% 11% Hydro 2 2 2 3 4 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 23% 22% 49% 8% 8% 8% Other renewables 1 1 2 3 6.1% 3.5% 4.6% 91% 67% 219% 3% 5% 7% Demand by sector Total end-use (including electricity) 18 24 26 32 39 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 21% 24% 49% 1% 1% 1% Residential/commercial 4 4 5 5 6 1.5% 1.1% 1.3% 18% 17% 38% 18% 17% 16% Transportation 5 7 9 11 13 1.9% 1.2% 1.5% 23% 2% 47% 33% 34% 33% Industrial 9 12 13 15 2 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 21% 29% 55% 49% 49% 51% Memo: electricity demand 2 3 4 5 7 3.% 2.3% 2.6% 38% 4% 93% 14% 16% 18% Power generation fuel 1 4 6 7 1 13 2.9% 1.8% 2.3% 37% 32% 8% 24% 27% 28% MIDDLE EAST Primary 18 3 34 42 5 2.% 1.1% 1.5% 25% 18% 47% 1% 1% 1% Oil 11 16 18 21 23 1.6%.6% 1.% 19% 9% 3% 52% 5% 46% Gas 7 13 15 2 24 2.3% 1.4% 1.8% 28% 23% 57% 46% 47% 49% Coal -3.% -3.8% -3.5% -28% -44% -6% 1% 1% % Nuclear 1 24.8% 7.4% 14.5% 148% 192% 3258% % 1% 3% Biomass/waste 7.3% 6.3% 6.7% 117% 15% 441% % % % Hydro 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 3% 38% 8% % % % Other renewables 1 9.2% 5.8% 7.2% 163% 132% 51% % 1% 1% Demand by sector Total end-use (including electricity) 14 23 26 33 4 2.% 1.2% 1.6% 25% 2% 5% 1% 1% 1% Residential/commercial 3 4 5 6 7 2.% 1.5% 1.7% 25% 25% 56% 18% 18% 19% Transportation 4 6 7 9 1 1.5%.9% 1.2% 18% 15% 36% 28% 26% 25% Industrial 7 12 14 18 22 2.3% 1.3% 1.7% 28% 22% 56% 54% 56% 56% Memo: electricity demand 1 3 3 5 7 4.1% 2.3% 3.1% 55% 41% 119% 12% 14% 17% Power generation fuel 1 5 9 1 14 17 2.6% 1.2% 1.8% 33% 2% 6% 31% 33% 34% NORTH AMERICA Primary 114 113 114 118 116.3% -.2%.% 4% -2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Oil 49 47 46 47 44.2% -.4% -.2% 2% -6% -4% 4% 4% 38% Gas 26 28 31 38 41 1.8%.6% 1.1% 21% 9% 32% 27% 32% 35% Coal 23 21 19 14 6-2.8% -5.2% -4.2% -26% -55% -67% 17% 12% 5% Nuclear 9 1 1 1 13.2% 1.5% 1.% 2% 26% 28% 9% 8% 11% Biomass/waste 4 3 3 3 2-1.5% -1.% -1.2% -15% -14% -27% 3% 2% 2% Hydro 2 2 2 2 3.6%.4%.5% 6% 7% 14% 2% 2% 2% Other renewables 1 2 3 4 7 3.8% 2.9% 3.3% 51% 54% 132% 3% 4% 6% Demand by sector Total end-use (including electricity) 86 86 88 94 93.5% -.1%.2% 6% -1% 5% 1% 1% 1% Residential/commercial 22 23 23 23 23.%.%.% % % % 26% 24% 25% Transportation 31 32 33 33 31 -.1% -.4% -.3% -1% -6% -7% 37% 35% 33% Industrial 34 32 33 38 39 1.4%.2%.7% 17% 3% 2% 37% 41% 42% Memo: electricity demand 15 16 16 18 2 1.1%.7%.8% 12% 11% 24% 18% 19% 21% Power generation fuel 1 42 43 42 43 43.2%.%.1% 2% % 2% 37% 36% 37% 76 1 Share based on total primary energy

Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) Average annual change % change Share of total 214 225 214 214 225 214 Regions 2 21 214 225 24 225 24 24 225 24 24 214 225 24 RUSSIA/CASPIAN Primary 38 43 44 45 44.3% -.2%.% 4% -3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Oil 8 8 1 1 1.% -.1% -.1% % -2% -2% 24% 23% 23% Gas 2 23 22 23 23.4% -.2%.1% 5% -3% 2% 51% 51% 51% Coal 7 7 7 7 5 -.4% -1.6% -1.1% -5% -21% -25% 16% 15% 12% Nuclear 2 3 3 4 4 2.7% 1.2% 1.8% 34% 2% 61% 6% 8% 1% Biomass/waste.5% -.1%.1% 5% -2% 3% 1% 1% 1% Hydro Other renewables 1 1 1 1 1.1% 6.1%.2% 4.6%.1% 5.2% 1% 91% 3% 96% 3% 274% 2% % 2% % 2% % Demand by sector Total end-use (including electricity) 29 33 35 36 35.4% -.2%.1% 5% -3% 1% 1% 1% 1% Residential/commercial 9 9 9 9 8 -.2% -.6% -.4% -2% -9% -11% 26% 24% 23% Transportation 3 4 4 5 5.3%.3%.3% 4% 4% 8% 13% 13% 14% Industrial 17 2 21 23 22.7% -.1%.2% 8% -2% 5% 61% 63% 64% Memo: electricity demand Power generation fuel 1 3 19 4 2 4 2 5 21 6 2 1.6%.2% 1.% -.2% 1.2%.% 19% 2% 16% -3% 38% % 12% 46% 14% 45% 17% 46% GDP by region (21$, trillions) World 49 65 72 11 153 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 41% 51% 113% 1% 1% 1% OECD 38 44 47 59 79 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 27% 33% 7% 65% 59% 52% Non-OECD 11 21 25 42 74 4.7% 3.9% 4.2% 65% 77% 192% 35% 41% 48% Africa 1 2 2 4 6 4.4% 4.% 4.2% 61% 8% 19% 3% 4% 4% Asia Pacific 12 19 22 36 6 4.4% 3.6% 3.9% 6% 69% 17% 31% 35% 39% China 2 6 8 15 29 6.1% 4.2% 5.% 91% 86% 256% 11% 15% 19% India 1 2 2 4 9 6.1% 5.1% 5.5% 92% 111% 37% 3% 4% 6% Europe 16 18 19 23 3 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 23% 29% 59% 26% 23% 2% European Union 14 17 17 21 26 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 22% 27% 55% 24% 21% 17% Latin America 3 4 5 6 1 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 37% 54% 112% 6% 6% 6% Middle East 1 2 2 4 6 3.7% 3.2% 3.4% 49% 61% 141% 3% 4% 4% North America 15 18 19 26 36 2.6% 2.3% 2.5% 33% 41% 88% 27% 25% 24% United States Russia/Caspian 13 1 15 2 16 2 22 3 3 4 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% 33% 3% 41% 5% 87% 95% 23% 3% 21% 3% 2% 3% Energy intensity (thousand BTU per $ GDP) World 8.5 8.1 7.7 6.4 4.6-1.8% -2.1% -2.% -18% -28% -41% OECD 6. 5.2 4.8 3.8 2.8-2.1% -2.1% -2.1% -21% -28% -42% Non-OECD 16.9 14.1 13.1 1. 6.6-2.5% -2.8% -2.6% -24% -34% -5% Africa 19.7 15.4 14.8 12.1 9.4-1.8% -1.7% -1.8% -18% -23% -37% Asia Pacific 1.9 1.8 1.2 7.9 5.3-2.2% -2.7% -2.5% -22% -33% -48% China 21.6 16.4 14.3 9.5 5.3-3.6% -3.8% -3.8% -33% -44% -63% India 22.4 17. 15.6 11.2 7.1-2.9% -3.% -3.% -28% -37% -54% Europe 5. 4.4 4. 3.2 2.3-2.% -2.1% -2.% -2% -27% -42% European Union 5. 4.4 3.9 3.1 2.3-2.1% -2.1% -2.1% -21% -27% -42% Latin America 6.9 6.5 6.4 5.7 4.6-1.% -1.5% -1.3% -11% -2% -29% Middle East 14. 14.3 14.1 11.8 8.6-1.6% -2.1% -1.9% -17% -27% -39% North America 7.6 6.4 6. 4.6 3.2-2.3% -2.4% -2.4% -22% -31% -46% United States Russia/Caspian 7.6 31.6 6.3 21.1 5.8 19.5 4.4 15.6 3. 1.1-2.4% -2.% -2.6% -2.9% -2.5% -2.5% -24% -2% -32% -35% -48% -48% Energy-related CO 2 emissions (billion tonnes) World 23.8 3.7 32.7 36. 36.4.9%.1%.4% 1% 1% 12% 1% 1% 1% OECD 12.8 12.8 12.4 11.6 9.8 -.7% -1.1% -.9% -7% -15% -21% 38% 32% 27% Non-OECD 11. 17.9 2.2 24.4 26.6 1.7%.6% 1.1% 21% 9% 32% 62% 68% 73% Africa.9 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 39% 48% 16% 4% 5% 7% Asia Pacific 7.7 13.3 15.2 17.9 18.8 1.5%.3%.8% 18% 5% 23% 47% 5% 51% China 3.3 7.4 8.7 1.2 9.3 1.4% -.6%.2% 17% -9% 7% 27% 28% 26% India 1. 1.7 2.1 2.9 3.9 3.% 1.9% 2.4% 38% 33% 84% 6% 8% 11% Europe 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.5 2.9 -.8% -1.3% -1.1% -8% -18% -25% 12% 1% 8% European Union 4. 3.9 3.4 3. 2.4-1.1% -1.5% -1.3% -11% -21% -29% 1% 8% 7% Latin America.9 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 22% 22% 49% 4% 5% 6% Middle East 1.1 1.8 2. 2.3 2.5 1.4%.5%.9% 16% 8% 25% 6% 6% 7% North America 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.3 -.2% -1.1% -.8% -3% -16% -18% 2% 17% 15% United States 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.2 -.5% -1.4% -1.% -6% -19% -24% 17% 14% 11% Russia/Caspian 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4.1% -.5% -.3% 1% -8% -7% 8% 7% 7% 1 Share based on total primary energy 77

Glossary Billion cubic feet per day (BCFD) This is used to define volumetric rates of natural gas. One billion cubic feet per day of natural gas is enough to meet about 2 percent of the natural gas used in homes around the world. Six billion cubic feet per day of natural gas is equivalent to about 1 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. British thermal unit (BTU) A BTU is a standard unit of energy that can be used to measure any type of energy source. The energy content of one gallon of gasoline is about 125, BTUs. Quad refers to a quadrillion BTUs. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle A type of light-duty vehicle where the fuel is hydrogen contained in a 1, psi tank. This hydrogen is passed through a fuel cell that then provides electricity to power the vehicle. Key Growth A grouping of 1 countries expected to represent an increasingly significant share of the global energy market due to rising populations and living standards. These countries include Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. Light-duty vehicle (LDV) A classification of road vehicles that includes cars, light trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUV). Liquefied natural gas (LNG) Natural gas (predominantly methane) that has been super-chilled for conversion to liquid form for ease of transport. Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) A liquid fuel produced in association with natural gas. NGLs are components of natural gas that are separated from the gaseous state into liquid form during natural gas processing. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) A forum of 34 member nations that promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world. OECD32 Although Mexico and Turkey are OECD member countries, their significant population, economic and energy demand growth closely resemble that of the other countries in the Key Growth group so they have been included there. As such, the OECD32 is used to denote the remaining countries of the OECD when a comparison to the Key Growth countries is made. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) A type of light duty vehicle that uses an electric motor to drive the wheels. Unlike other electric vehicles, a PHEV also has a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) that can charge its battery using petroleum fuels if needed. Primary energy Includes energy in the form of oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, wind, solar and bioenergy sources (biofuels, municipal solid waste, traditional biomass). It does not include electricity or market heat, which are secondary energy types reflecting conversion/production from primary energy sources. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) A classification of hydrocarbon fuel including propane, butane and other similar hydrocarbons with low molecular weight. Secondary energy Energy types reflecting the conversion or production of energy from primary energy sources such as electricity produced using natural gas. Million oil-equivalent barrels per day (MBDOE) This term provides a standardized unit of measure for different types of energy sources (oil, gas, coal, etc.) based on energy content relative to a typical barrel of oil. One million oil-equivalent barrels per day is enough energy to fuel about 5 percent of the light-duty vehicles on the world s roads today. Watt A unit of electrical power, equal to one joule per second. A 1-gigawatt power plant can meet the electricity demand of more than 5, homes in the U.S. (Kilowatt (kw) = 1, watts; Gigawatt (GW) = 1,,, watts; Terawatt (TW) = 1 12 watts). 3 terawatt hours is equivalent to about 1 quadrillion BTUs (Quad). 78

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Exxon Mobil Corporation Corporate Headquarters 5959 Las Colinas Blvd. Irving, Texas 7539-2298 exxonmobil.com The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This report includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. SP-142