Housing Market Developments 3rd Quarter 2015 Content WOX: Number of sales still rising: The annual number of sales once again rose sharply (26.8%) and has reached the level of end 2008. Market liquidity nearly reaching equilibrium: Overall in the Netherlands supply still outstrips demand, with the ratio standing at 1.1. However in the urban agglomeration ( randstad ) the same ratio drops to 0.86, as demand is now higher than supply. The number of homes that sold within 3 months has increased from 13.7% in Q3 2013 to 20.9% in the current quarter. In the NUTS- II region Amsterdam 65.7% of all dwellings sold within 6 months. Highest price rises northern part of Randstad: the average home value continues to rise this quarter (1.5%) to an average of 244 thousand euros. At municipality level, the average annual home value has increased most strongly in Amsterdam (9.8%) and Bloemendaal (8.7%). Quarter of properties difficult to sell: A quarter of all properties for sale in the Netherlands (more than 58 thousand), have been on the market for longer than 3 years. In parts of the north and east of the country the same applies for nearly half of the properties. Introduction 1 House prices and development 2 Segment analyses and forecast 3 Special research 4 House prices by region 7 Affordability 8 House sales 9 Market liquidity 12 Mortgage market 14 Foreclosures 14 Commercial real estate 17 Dutch housing market summary 19 Appendices 20 Housing Market in the West Recovers While the East is Lagging The recovery of the housing market over recent quarters has mainly occurred in the west of the country. In Amsterdam the average home value is now 5.9% higher than the last measured peak from 2008. And in half of all transactions in Amsterdam, there was a purchase price higher than the advertised price. On the other hand, a quarter of the homes have been for sale for more than three years. The east has the highest proportion of difficult to sell homes. CALCASA INDEXES Q3 2015 Calcasa House Price Index (WOX) (1995Q1=100) 254 Residential price change Table 1 Calcasa key numbers. WOX price change (year-on-year) 3.9% WOX price change (quarter-on-quarter) 1.5% WOX price change corrected for inflation (year-on-year) 3.1% House price forecast Yearly price change 4Q2015 4.1% Quarterly price change 4Q2015 0.7% Housing affordability Affordability index 16.4% Yearly change in housing affordability 5.4% Quarterly change in housing affordability -2.8% Transactions Number of transactions on a yearly basis (x 1,000) 227 Yearly change in the number of transactions 26.8% Quarterly change in the number of transactions 6.5% *Housing stock January 1 st, 2015, municipal redivision 2014 1
Average House Price Keeps on Rising The WOX (1995 = 100) currently stands at 254 points. Average house price: EUR244,000.»» Q-O-Q price development: +1.5%.»» Y-O-Y price development: +3.9%. The current Dutch inflation rate is 0.9% (which is the average rate for Q3 2015 according to Statistics Netherlands). In the third quarter of 2015, inflation-adjusted house prices rose by 0.9% y-o-y. 270 250 10% 5% Figure 1 Average house price (x EUR1,000) and yearly price change per quarter in the Netherlands. Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa 230 0% 210-5% 190 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15-10% Average house price (x 1000) House price growth (% y-o-y) Average price of a single-family house: EUR262,000.»» Q-O-Q price development, single-family houses: +1.4%.»» Y-O-Y price development, single-family houses: +3.6%. Average price of apartments: EUR194,000.»» Q-O-Q price development, apartments: +1.8%.»» Y-O-Y price development, apartments: +5.3%. Figure 2 4% Q-O-Q price change per housing type in the Netherlands. Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa 2% 0% -2% 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 Single-family houses Apartments 2
Highest Price Increase for Expensive Properties Based on house price levels, Calcasa has divided the market into five segments. Homes worth more than EUR500,000 performed best with an annual average house price rise of 5.6%. Price segment (euro) Price development y-o-y Transaction distribution Less than 150,000 2.1% 20.0% 150,000 euro to 250,000 3.9% 46.0% 250,000 euro to 350,000 4.8% 20.0% 350,000 euro to 500,000 4.3% 9.0% Table 2a Netherlands - price development per price segment and transaction distribution over the last year. More than 500,000 5.6% 4.0% All residential properties 3.9% 100.0% Biggest Price Increase for Older Apartments Again, the apartments have increased the most in value over the past year. With an above average price increase of 5.3% (see Table 2b). Older apartments built before 1944 are most desirable. Last year, their value increased by 10.1%. (Semi) detached homes built in the period 1980-2000 have increased the least in value over the past year (1.8%). Development (y-o-y) Construction Housing type <1944 1945-1979 >1980 >2000 Total (semi) detached 4.4% 2.8% 1.8% 2.2% 3.0% Terraced/corner house 5.7% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.9% Apartment 10.1% 2.2% 3.6% 3.9% 5.3% Total 7.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9% Table 2b Netherlands - price development per construction year and housing type over the last year. Forecast House Price Q4 2015 Going Up Q-O-Q price change: +0.7%. Y-O-Y price change: +4.1%.»» Y-O-Y price change single-family homes: 3.0%.»» Y-O-Y price change apartments: 5.1%. Calcasa publishes region-specific house price forecasts for four specific areas of the Netherlands, reflecting the diversity and variety displayed across the region. Western part: 4.7%. Northern part: 5.1% Eastern part : 2.5% Southern part: 3.2% 3
The West Recovers While the East is Lagging In the West of the country the average home value increased with 5.0% compared to a year ago. In the East home values rose only 2.2% and 2.8% in the South. For several quarters in a row, the house price recovered faster in the West. In some municipalities the price level of 2008 has already been reached (see Figure 3a). This accelerated pace of recovery has lead to large price differences between west and East/South. Not only price differences but also differences in maturity and market liquidity has caused that the recovery in the East and South of the country is lagging behind. Figure 3 Index number* average house value vs. the peak of the housing market in Q3 2008 per municipality. Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa * An index number of 100 would imply that the average house value in Q3 2015 is equal to that in Q3 2008. House Prices East Netherlands More Than 15% Below 2008 Level In Amsterdam the average house value has now risen 5.9% above the highest level reached in the third quarter of 2008. Also the municipalities Amstelveen and Diemen, have surpassed the highest price level from 2008. This is in sharp contrast with municipalities in the east where the average home value is still far removed from the peak in 2008. In the municipalities of neighbouring, Maasdriel and Bronckhorst the average house value is still 16% below the highest level. 4
Highest price development West Netherlands relative to Q3 2008 East Netherlands relative to Q3 2008 Amsterdam 5.9% Zwolle -6.5% Amstelveen 0.1% Zwartewaterland -6.7% Diemen 0.0% Kampen -6.8% Weesp -1.7% Deventer -6.9% Table 3 Top 5 municipalities in west Netherlands with the highest price development compared to the peak of the housing market. Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa Haarlem -1.9% Hardenberg -6.9% West Netherlands -4.6% East Netherlands -10.9% Hot property Market in Amsterdam Buyers are bidding against each other again and in 15% of all home sales in the Netherlands the sales price is equal to or higher than the asking price. In Amsterdam currently 37% of home sales occur above the asking price. And in half of all home sales a price is paid that is equal to or higher than the asking price. Also in the municipalities Horn, Velsen and Haarlem the share of transactions with a sales price above the asking price is high with 23%, 19% and 17% respectively, but Amsterdam clearly stands out as a leader. Overbidding is not new in Amsterdam. Even during the credit crisis it still happened on a small scale. On average in Amsterdam, 6% of all home sales were overbid during the crisis years. Since the recovery of the housing market in 2013, the number of bids over the asking price increased sharply by an average of 5% in the second quarter of 2013 to 37% in the third quarter of 2015. West Netherlands % above asking price East Netherlands % above asking price Amsterdam 37.0% Doetinchem 12.6% Hoorn 22.9% Zevenaar 12.1% Velsen 18.9% Arnhem 11.3% Haarlem 17.1% Apeldoorn 8.9% Almere 14.9% Duiven 8.7% West Netherlands 9.9% East Netherlands 4.3% Table 4 Top 5 municipalities with highest share of homes sold above the asking price in the west and east Netherlands Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa 49% Homes Sold in West Amsterdam Above Asking Price In the west of the city of Amsterdam (stadsdeel West) the housing market is so favourable that 49% of all sales a sales price is agreed higher than the advertised price. Also in the south and east of the city overbidding occurs frequently: 42% of all sales are higher than the asking price. In the west of the city, homes in neighbourhoods like the Kinkerbuurt and the Van Galenbuurt are very sought after. In these neighbourhoods in 60% of all home sales a price is paid above the asking price (see Figure 2 for overbidding overview at neighbourhood level in Amsterdam). The neighbourhood in Amsterdam where bids over the ask price is most common is the Indische buurt West in the eastern part of the city where in more than 70% of all cases a price is paid more than the asking price. The regional differences in the Netherlands are quite notable. As the vast majority of homes are still sold with a discount, on average, the purchase price in the Netherlands is still 8% less than the (initial) asking price. 5
Figure 4 The share of sales with a purchase price higher than the asking price per neighborhood in Amsterdam in Q3 2015. Source: WOX Montitor Calcasa Share of difficult to sell homes highest in Achterhoek Houses that have been on sale for longer than three years (difficult to sell homes) account for a quarter of supply (25,7%). More than 58 thousand homes in the Netherlands have been for sale longer than 3 years, with a large share (33%) in the Achterhoek. West Netherlands >3 years for sale East Netherlands >3 years for sale Lelystad 43.8% Montferland 45.4% Cromstrijen 41.2% Zevenaar 40.2% Brielle 39.9% Winerswijjk 38.7% Bernisse 39.9% Bronckhorst 38.4% Korendijk 38.3% Losser 38.2% West Netherlands 22.0% East Netherlands 29.0% Table 5 Top 5 municipalities with highest share of homes which have been on sale for longer than 3 years in the west and east Netherlands Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa Figure 5 Percentage of houses longer for sale than three years in the eastern region Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa 6
Largest Price Increase for Houses in North-Holland The average house this quarter increased in price the most in the province of North-Holland, with an increase of 6.6% in value. Especially apartments in North-Holland are in demand, with values going up by 8.8%. Single-family houses rose by 5.5%. House price development is lagging behind in the provinces of Overijssel (1.7%) and Zeeland (1.6%) as can be seen in table 6. Average price Average price Price change Q3 2015 single-family apartments (year-on-year) houses Groningen 195000 158000 4.6% Friesland 189000 140000 3.1% Drenthe 208000 148000 2.6% Table 6 Average price and y-o-y price development on province level Overijssel 216000 140000 1.7% Flevoland 208000 191000 3.7% Gelderland 260000 164000 2.5% Utrecht 342000 210000 4.2% North-Holland 318000 279000 6.6% South-Holland 286000 172000 4.1% Zeeland 201000 157000 1.6% North-Brabant 268000 178000 3.0% Limburg 212000 139000 2.9% The Netherlands 262000 194000 3.9% House Prices Agglomeration Haarlem Rose by 8% Largest annual price increase, at 8.1%, is calculated for houses in the Agglomeration Haarlem. Single-family homes rose by 9.2% in value and apartments by 5.2%. The Greater Amsterdam region comes in second place with an annual growth rate of 7.7%. Apartments have the highest price increase by 10.1%. In the region Southwest Gelderland house prices remained stable (0.1%). In 5 of the 40 NUTS-II regions the average house price rose by more than 5.0%. In 9 of the 40 NUTS-II regions the average house price rose by no more than 2%. All housing market information (up to neighbourhood level) can be accessed 24/7 via the WOX Monitor More information on price developments in various regional levels (neighbourhood, municipality, province) is available via the Calcasa WOX online (www.calcasa.co.uk/woxonline). 7
Housing Affordability Improved by 9% Continuing house price rises not offset with lower interest rates have resulted in a decrease of the housing affordability over the last quarter. On average, 16.4% of net household income was required to service housing costs in the third quarter of 2015, compared to mid-2008 when housing costs represented 29.8% of net income. Q-O-Q change in net housing costs: +5.4%. Y-O-Y change in net housing costs: -2.8%. Figure 6 35 30 25 Housing affordability index* (in % of household income) in the Netherlands for the period 1995-2015. 20 15 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Figure 7 Affordability index per municipality (in %). *The index measures the affordability of Dutch owner-occupied houses. It is calculated taking into account net housing costs, current average mortgage costs (current interest rate: 4.2%), maintenance costs, local taxes and fiscal treatment. 8
Number of Sales Increased by 26.8% The annual number of transactions has increased, with a total of 205,000 residential properties sold during the past year. Y-O-Y development, number of sales: +26.8%. Q-O-Q development, number of sales: +6.5%. Figure 8 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 Number of annual sales* and y-o-y change in number of sales in the Netherlands. Source: Statistics Netherlands, Land Registry, adaptation by Calcasa * The number of housing sales are shown on an annual basis to get a good picture of the long term trend (corrected for seasonal effects). Quarterly change number of transactions Yearly number of transactions Transaction Development by Property Type Sales increased for all types of housing in the past year, as shown in Table 4. In total, the number of sales rose by 26.8% year on year. Apartments were most popular with an increase in sales last year of 32.7%. Semi-detached houses were less popular in recent times; their sales increased by 19.7%. Since mid-2014, the market picked up and since than we see large increases in transaction numbers which reflects back to an average annual increase of the house value of 3.9%. y-o-y Transaction development Housing type 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 Detached 26.3% 41.6% 37.5% 30.9% 29.0% Semi-detached 16.9% 29.2% 25.9% 19.4% 19.7% Table 7 Y-o-y transaction development by period and property type Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa Corner house 20.9% 33.0% 32.4% 22.8% 22.6% Terraced house 27.9% 40.2% 35.3% 26.5% 24.4% Apartment 27.4% 39.8% 39.7% 34.5% 32.7% Total 25.3% 38.1% 35.5% 28.2% 26.8% 9
Largest Increase in Sales for Expensive Price Classes The sale of homes in the price range 350-500 thousand euros increased by more than 40.4%. Also houses worth more than 500 thousand euros were sold more often (37.6%). Most interesting is the increase of sales of cheap houses in the western part of the Netherlands. In the Southern part of the Netherlands the highest increases in sales was measured for houses worth between 350-500 thousand euros (41.7%) Figure 9 50 37,5 25 Growth (%) of share of housing sales per price segment in north, east, west and south Netherlands in Q3 2015 compared to Q3 2014. Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa 12,5 0 north Netherlands east Netherlands west Netherlands south Netherlands < 75.000 75.000-150.000 150.000-250.000 250.000-350.000 350.000-500.000 > 500.000 50% of Housing Supply Sold Within 6 Months 20.9% of homes sold were on the market for less than 3 months. Since last year the number of homes which are selling quickly is increasing. A year ago 44.1% sold within six months and that number has now risen to 49.5% a year later. The majority of homes were sold within 12 months last quarter (70.5%). Homes that took longer than 24 months to sell still account for quite a large part (14.5%). y-o-y development time to sell 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 Sold within 3 monnths 17.8% 19.1% 17.9% 18.7% 20.9% Sold within 6 months 44.1% 44.2% 44.8% 44.7% 49.5% Table 8 Y-o-y development for time to sell by period Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa Sold within 12 months 64.2% 66.5% 67.3% 67.3% 70.5% Sold within 18 months 75.0% 76.7% 77.0% 77.0% 70.5% Sold within 24 monts 82.4% 82.8% 82.8% 83.8% 80.5% > 24 months 17.6% 17.2% 17.2% 16.2% 14.5% 10
30% of Supply Over 3 Years on Market in North/East NL While the number of sales is rising and supply is falling, still a large part of homes for sale (25.7%) has been on the market for more than 3 years. This amounts to 58.3 thousand homes. In the North and East of the country, the proportion of homes that are for sale for over 3 years is the highest. For example, 39.5% of the homes for sale in East Groningen have been on the market for more than 3 years, which equates to approximately 1600 homes (difficult sales). For the Achterhoek region this is 33%, or about 2200 homes. Highest share Lowest share supply >36 months supply >36 months Municipalities for sale (in %) Municipalities for sale (in %) Oldambt 47.1 Stein 5.1 Montferland 45.4 Eijsden-Margraten 5.3 Lelystad 43.8 Maastricht 5.6 Zevenaar 40.2 Meerssen 8.0 Table 9 Top 10 municipalities with highest and lowest percentage of houses which are for sale for more than 3 years per Q3 2015 Source: WOX Monitor Calcasa Winterswijk 38.7 Midden-Delfland 9.5 Bronckhorst 38.4 Zwartewaterland 10.3 Losser 38.3 Sittard-Geleen 11.6 Goeree-Overflakkee 38.1 Borne 12.1 Dantumadiel 37.2 Sliedrecht 12.1 Bladel 37.1 Leiden 12.5 Figure 10 Percentage of housing supply which has been for sale for more than 36 months at municipality level for Q3 2015 Source: Statistics Netherlands, Land Registry and adaptation Calcasa 11
Market Liquidity Improves Further The annual ratio of houses for sale vs. sold has decreased this quarter to 1.1. This is a large improvement compared to last year when this ratio was still 1.5. The annual number of houses sold: 205 thousand.»» Y-O-Y development: 26.8% Homes for sale in Q3 2015: 227 thousand»» Y-O-Y development: -9.1% The market liquidity is best in Amsterdam with a factor of 0.38, followed by the municipality of Groningen with 0.42. In the municipality Veendam the market liquidity is highest (worst) with a factor of 2.81, followed by the municipality of Delfzijl with 2.76. Figure 11 300000 240000 180000 Number of properties for sale versus number of properties sold over the period 2008-2015 in the Netherlands. Source: Multiple real estate agents, adaptation Calcasa 120000 60000 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Total properties for sale Properties sold yearly The relationship between the supply of owner-occupied housing and total owner-occupied housing stock is also a component of market liquidity. The percentage of the total owner-occupied housing stock that sold last year is 4.8% for the Netherlands. o The percentage of family homes sold previous year: 4.0%. o The percentage of apartments sold previous year: 8.8%. Amsterdam has the best market liquidity. The share of owner occupied housing stock which was sold last year increased to 12.4. The lowest market liquidity is for the municipalities of Tubbergen where 2.4% of the existing stock of owner-occupied homes has changed owners. 12
Figure 12 Supply/Sales ratio all properties per municipality Figure 13 Market liquidity: percentage sold homes as % of total number of owner occupied housing stock for previous year per municipality 13
Mortgages Approvals Up by 24% Approximately 254,000 mortgages were approved last year. Y-O-Y development, number of mortgages: +23.7%. Q-O-Q development, number of sales: +6.6%. Figure 14 20% 10% 650000 500000 Number of mortgages 0% 350000-10% 200000-20% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 50000 Quarterly change number of mortgages Number of mortgages Number of Foreclosures Through Auction Rises Over the last four quarters, 1.771 foreclosures have been registered by the land registry. o Y-O-Y development amount of foreclosures: +15.7%. o Q-O-Q development amount of foreclosures: +5.3%. The share of foreclosure sales versus total sales is 0.9%. The highest share of foreclosure sales to total sales is 3.1% in the region Delfzijl and surroundings. The lowest share of foreclosure sales (0.1%) is in the Agglomoration Leiden and the Bollenstreek. Forced sales through auction is decreasing in recent years, but at the same time forced sales through the broker is increasing. Proceeds of a forced sale through an auction are up to 40 percent less than through a public sale. For homes purchased with an NHG (National Mortgage Guarantee) guarantee any residual outstanding debt with the lender can be waived. Due to the increase in the number of foreclosures after the crisis, the NHG has come up with stricter regulations allowing banks to only sell homes via auction if the selling price is less than 5% below market value. This is to avoid big losses. Figure 15 3000 2250 1500 750 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Number of yearly foreclosures and amount of foreclosures as a % of the total number of transactions in the Netherlands. Source: Statistics Netherlands, Land Registry and adaptation Calcasa Number of foreclosures As a percentage of total transactions 14
Amount of Household in Arrears Stabilizes Since 2007 the number of home owners in arrears has risen by 276%. Currently there are 112.700 home owners which have difficulties to pay their mortgage payments: this is an increase of 3,927 (3.6%) since Q3 2014. Figure 16 130,000 110,000 90,000 Number of borrowers with mortgage payment arrears for the period 2007-2015 Source: BKR, adaptation Calcasa 70,000 50,000 30,000 10,000 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 The Market for Newly Built Properties Picking Up The sales of newly built houses rises in the last three months to a total amount of 7.993 in the second quarter of 2015. o Y-O-Y development of sold newly built houses: +33.2%. o Q-O-Q development of sold newly built houses: +18.5% The average sales price of new construction homes is slightly rising again in the past quarters, resulting from an increase in number of sales for homes above the 300 thousand euro price bracket. The number of sales of new homes in the cheaper price segment is falling. 14,000 11,500 9,000 6,500 4,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 Figure 17 Average sales price for newly built houses per quarter in the Netherlands compared to the quarterly amount of newly built houses sold 2005-2015 Source: MNW, adaptation Calcasa 1,500 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 200,000 Amount of sold newly built houses Average price 15
Rental Values Commercial Real Estate Decreased The average office rental price increased by 0.0% y-o-y in 3Q2015 The Calcasa PropertyNL OPI (Office Price Index) showed a value of 90 (4Q2001=100) for the third quarter of 2015. The average office rental value is now EUR119 per square meter. The average retail rental price decreased by 6.1% y-o-y in 3Q2015 The Calcasa PropertyNL RPI (Retail Price Index) showed a value of 99 (4Q2001=100) for the third quarter of 2015. Compared to the third quarter of 2014, this is a decrease of 6.1%. The average retail rental value is now EUR148 per square meter. The average industrial rental price decreased by 3.7% y-o-y in 3Q2015 The Calcasa PropertyNL IPI (Industrial Price Index) showed a value of 89 (4Q2001=100) for the third quarter of 2014, a decrease of 3.7% compared to the third quarter of 2014. The average industrial rental value is now EUR53 per square meter. The three real estate indices are based entirely on actual transactions and not on appraisals from professionals. The actual situation for the rental income may even be grimmer: in the actual rents any incentives given by the owner are not included. Figure 18 140 125 Development of Calcasa commercial real estate indexes (Q4 2001 = 100) 110 95 80 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Offices Retail Industrial Netherlands Index (Q4 2001=100) Average rent per m2 Y-O-Y price change Three year price change Table 10 Offices (OPI) 90 119 0.0% -6.0% Retail (RPI) 99 148-6.1% -9.7% Industrial (IPI) 89 53-3.7% -11.8% Development of rental values of commercial real estate in the Netherlands, PropertyNL 16
Figure 19 200 150 Development of Calcasa commercial real estate indexes (2001Q4 = 100), PropertyNL 100 50 0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 OPI RPI IPI Commercial Real Estate Index: A Scientifically Justified Methodology Calcasa calculates price developments for commercial real estate by using realised rental transactions which have been gathered and checked by the research department of PropertyNL. Calcasa translates the rental transactions to determine a value for the entire stock of commercial real estate, using a hedonic modeling technique. A revaluation of the entire stock takes place each quarter and hence a more accurate and robust index is formed, capturing the developments in the commercial real estate market. With the application of the hedonic method, it is essential that objects and their location are documented precisely, using the characteristics that influence the price. Hence, when using a hedonic index model, a range of object characteristics are taken into account, e.g. living area and year of construction. It is equally important that multiple variables are included in the model, which describe the location of the object; an example of such variables would be distance to important amenities like city centers, airports, train stations and motorways. Using this methodology, Calcasa produces a quarterly index for the office market (with minimal space of 200 square meters), which is published in PropertyNL and the Calcasa WOX quarterly bulletin. 17
Dutch Housing Market Summary Largest cities All properties Single-family Apartments Owner occupied Rental Total population Total households Amsterdam 411,125 85,500 325,625 25% 73% 810,940 440,780 13,848 5,220 15.9 Rotterdam 307,350 105,100 202,250 33% 65% 618,360 311,190 6,913 7,250 18.3 The Hague 244,875 65,600 179,275 42% 56% 508,940 249,290 6,988 5,915 17.0 Annual sales Current supply Time to sell (in months) Table 11 Key figures for the Dutch housing market Source: Statistics Netherlands, Land Registry Utrecht 145,125 72,100 73,025 44% 54% 328,170 169,510 5,175 2,890 16.5 Eindhoven 101,975 71,625 30,350 44% 55% 220,920 111,790 3,114 2,240 19.7 Provinces Groningen 267,475 190,475 76,975 54% 44% 582,710 286,630 7,329 9,155 20.1 Friesland 289,375 249,575 39,825 61% 39% 646,290 285,300 7,524 11,015 20.0 Drenthe 214,900 186,975 27,925 64% 36% 488,970 211,450 5,849 8,635 20.0 Overijssel 485,400 395,400 90,000 58% 40% 1,139,680 484,280 11,977 15,150 19.2 Flevoland 159,500 133,050 26,425 63% 36% 399,890 163,490 4,384 5,170 18.4 Gelderland 859,850 693,825 166,025 58% 41% 2,019,640 879,770 22,232 30,085 19.8 Utrecht 534,600 363,775 170,800 56% 43% 1,253,650 561,520 16,843 13,935 17.5 North-Holland 1,262,800 704,050 558,750 47% 51% 2,741,320 1,298,220 39,165 28,755 17.6 South-Holland 1,618,650 870,125 748,525 50% 49% 3,576,960 1,639,650 42,168 45,205 17.9 Zeeland 180,375 153,500 26,875 65% 35% 380,610 170,760 5,541 7,030 19.0 North-Brabant 1,062,375 854,425 207,975 60% 40% 2,479,220 1,092,190 29,680 36,685 19.4 Limburg 514,025 408,650 105,375 58% 41% 1,119,980 516,560 11,909 16,000 18.6 Netherlands 7,449,300 5,197,650 2,251,650 55% 44% 16,829,290 7,589,800 204,601 226,820 18.8 Housing stock Y-O-Y price development largest cities Figures 20 & 21 15% 50% owner occupied housing social housing 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% All properties Single-family Source figure left: Statistics Netherlands Source figure right: Calcasa 35% rental housing 2.0% Apartments 0.0% Mortgage developments Top mortgage lenders: increase/decrease market share Table 12 & Figure 22 Annual numbers 3Q15 Amount Change Sales with NHG 37,800 24.8% Execution sales with losses 1,771 15.7% Households in arrears 112,681 3.6% Sold mortgages 253,632 23.7% Total mortgage amount 635,103-0.1% Source: NHG, BKR, DNB 3.3% -3.0% Rabobank Obvion ING Bank 1.4% Florius -2.2% Nationale Nederlanden 1.3% Delta Lloyd ASR Bank Aegon 1.3% -1.4% -2.0% Achmea Hypotheekbank 1.1% Munt Hypotheken -1.3% Source table left: NHG, BKR, DNB Source figure right: Calcasa, IG&H Macro-economic figures Figures 23 & 24 GDP, inflation and employment rate in the Netherlands 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% The WOX HPI versus total mortgage debt in the Netherlands 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 700,000 650,000 600,000 550,000 500,000 450,000 Source figure left: DNB, Statistics Netherlands Source figure right: Calcasa, DNB 70 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Q2 2015 GDP 2010=100 Inflation Unemployment rate 0% 210 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 WOX (1995=100) Total mortgage debt 400,000 18
Appendices All Provinces Detached Semi- Corner Terraced single-family houses detached houses houses dwellings Groningen 225,000 187,000 166,000 167,000 195,000 Friesland 242,000 179,000 150,000 139,000 189,000 Drenthe 279,000 196,000 163,000 151,000 208,000 Overijssel 327,000 213,000 193,000 183,000 216,000 Table 13 Average house price for single-family dwellings, per property type and per province in the Netherlands. Flevoland 337,000 249,000 188,000 177,000 208,000 Gelderland 372,000 258,000 217,000 198,000 260,000 Utrecht 604,000 411,000 296,000 274,000 342,000 North-Holland 464,000 375,000 282,000 258,000 318,000 South-Holland 462,000 351,000 268,000 249,000 286,000 Zeeland 270,000 188,000 166,000 159,000 201,000 North-Brabant 400,000 274,000 233,000 217,000 268,000 Limburg 306,000 201,000 185,000 179,000 212,000 Netherlands 356,000 265,000 233,000 221,000 262,000 Up/ Provinces Porch Gallery Maison- downstairs All flat flat nette apartment apartments Groningen 144,000 140,000 143,000 152,000 160,000 Friesland 136,000 126,000 136,000 136,000 141,000 Drenthe 141,000 131,000 131,000 160,000 149,000 Overijssel 135,000 138,000 150,000 151,000 143,000 Table 14 Average house price for apartments, per property type and per province in the Netherlands. Flevoland 186,000 160,000 154,000 158,000 190,000 Gelderland 165,000 153,000 167,000 183,000 169,000 Utrecht 198,000 178,000 211,000 210,000 202,000 North-Holland 213,000 201,000 247,000 292,000 270,000 South-Holland 149,000 154,000 181,000 172,000 168,000 Zeeland 168,000 176,000 149,000 145,000 158,000 North-Brabant 178,000 163,000 177,000 185,000 177,000 Limburg 145,000 131,000 147,000 156,000 140,000 Netherlands 165,000 162,000 189,000 207,000 191,000 19
Highest Lowest property values property values Municipalities (x 1,000) Municipalities (x 1,000) Bloemendaal 656 Delfzijl 142 Wassenaar 536 Oldambt 149 Heemstede 486 Leeuwarden 152 Naarden 467 Veendam 157 Table 15 Top 10 highest and lowest property values, per municipality containing over 5,000 owner-occupied dwellings. De Bilt 400 Heerlen 157 Bussum 392 Franekeradeel 160 Wijdemeren 385 Terneuzen 160 Zeist 380 Brunssum 160 Utrechtse Heuvelrug 372 Kerkrade 160 Huizen 359 Den Helder 161 Highest Lowest annual price annual price Municipalities development Municipalities development Amsterdam 9.8% Culemborg -0.4% Bloemendaal 8.7% Maasdriel -0.1% Wijdemeren 8.5% Buren -0.1% Haarlem 8.2% Oisterwijk 0.1% Table 16 Top 10 highest and lowest price developments, per municipality with over 5,000 owner-occupied dwellings. Utrecht 8.1% Geldermalsen 0.2% Naarden 8.1% Schouwen-Duiveland 0.3% Huizen 7.8% Venlo 0.3% Bussum 7.7% Loon op Zand 0.3% Heemstede 7.5% Werkendam 0.4% Hilversum 7.4% Dongen 0.4% 20
Figure 25 Average house price per NUTS-III region (EUR). Figure 26 Year-on-year price change per NUTS-III (%). 21
Figure 27 Average house price per municipality (EUR). Figure 28 Year-on-year price change per municipality (%). 22
Calcasa PropertyNL Analyzer Analysing the commercial real estate market is possible through the Calcasa PropertyNL Analyzer ( CPA ). CPA is an online application with information that is easily accessible for the office, retail and industrial markets. This tool increases the transparency in the property market. By combining some 30 public and private databases, including those of PropertyNL, BAG, Calcasa, CBS and Chamber of Commerce, relevant information on both individual objects as well as an area can be analysed and accessed much faster. The application works as a decision support tool for the real estate professional. Each building in the Netherlands can be analysed. With one press of a button information can be retrieved; for example comparable rental and sale transactions, the long term price trends can be viewed, or the vacancy rate can be determined in a self-defined area. In the coming years the quantity and quality of the data will be improved further with the help of the users. In addition, the functionality will be further adapted to the needs of various user groups. For more information contact mr. Rogier van der Hijden: Rogier@Calcasa.nl 23
About Calcasa Calcasa is an independent technology company specialising in the statistical analysis and valuation of real estate. The Calcasa Automated Valuation Model (AVM) for valuation of individual homes is unique due to its high coverage and accuracy. It is internationally recognized by the three major rating agencies and regulators. Mortgage lenders, investors, intermediaries, validation institutes, housing corporations, consumer organisations, real estate companies, broker organizations, government agencies and regulators rely daily on the solutions Calcasa. www.calcasa.co.uk Calcasa WOX: A reliable house price index Calcasa WOX is demonstrably the most reliable house price index in the Netherlands. Every quarter, Calcasa calculates a reliable house price index for each province, municipality, borough and neighborhood in the Netherlands. The house price index is calculated using the national data on transactions starting from 1993 and additional house and location characteristics from the database. The source data is screened for integrity, such that non-representative data is omitted for the index calculation. The developed methodology takes into account any over or under representation of sold properties, compared to the existing housing stock in that area. Unlike most house price indices, the Calcasa WOX does not simply calculate the coincidental development of sales for a specific area; rather it calculates the development of prices of the total housing stock. WOX Monitor The WOX and other data on the housing market can be found in our WOX Monitor. This unique service provides data for each neighbourhood, borough and municipality in the Netherlands. More than 500 relevant variables are included in the WOX Monitor. An update takes place every quarter, when new topics are also added. The online monitor, available 24/7, is fast, user friendly and offers numerous analysis and presentation possibilities. European AVM Alliance (EAA) Calcasa is a founding member of the EEA which was launched as a pan-european initiative at the end of 2012. The mission is to promote and standardize the usage of AVM s resulting in a consistent approach to automated valuations in Europe. Other members include Hometrack (UK), Eiendomsverdi (Norway), Värderingsdata (Sweden) and IAZI (Switzerland). Calcasa Koornmarkt 41 2611 EB Delft The Netherlands T 0031 15 214 88 34 24