Sprekende Cijfers. de Nieuwe Werkelijkheid van de kantorenmarkt. The Netherlands. Office markets 2015 The Netherlands 1

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1 de Nieuwe Werkelijkheid van de kantorenmarkt The Netherlands Office markets 2015 The Netherlands 1

2 Economic developments The current economic developments play a part in the developments on the office market. For the first time since 2013 it seems there is a small increase in The expectation for 2015 is that the GDP will increase with 1.5%. According to the Central Planning Office (CPO) the investments will increase with 3.3% this year and the household expenditure will increase with 1.3%, as a result of improved spending power and increased trust. Unemployment will decrease slightly to 6.5% of the working population (this was 6.8% at the end of 2014) and employment will increase with 0,8%. Despite of these positive prospects, uncertainty has the upper hand at the beginning of The expected growth rates are staying low, whereas The Netherlands as open economy is being strongly influenced by external factors especially by the economic developments in the rest of Europe. For the sixth time in a row The Netherlands was the EU s second largest exporting country in Approximately two thirds of the total Dutch export goes to countries within the Euro zone. Compared to the rest of the world, the economic recovery in Europe still stays behind. The export to China and the United States is recovering a lot faster. The CPO expects the Dutch export to increase with 4.3% in 2015, the same percentage as in Even though the most important market indicators for this year mainly have the goahead, a reservation must be kept. The realised increase of 2014 eventually turned out to be lower than was predicted at the beginning of the year. Change and shift The economic developments of the past years are causing great changes and shifts on the Dutch office market. The number of companies that went bankrupt in 2014, is high. In the first nine months of last year more than 7,400 companies filed for bankruptcy. Since Q the number of bankruptcies is slowing down. Many companies have been reduced due to reorganisations. Expenses are being monitored, companies are working more effectively and with less employees. These kind of current developments led to a decrease in the office demand in The Netherlands in 2014 and also in less average square metres lettable floor area per single company. At the same time a new growth can be seen, due to an increase of the number of new set-up companies. Because these companies are relatively small (at the moment), their demand for office space stays limited for the time being. The major increase of independents without employees in 2014 but also the still uncertain future for some companies, leads to a larger number of available office space in regard to the demand at the moment. Activities are more and more combined by companies in one location. Mainly in the Randstad conurbation one finds this density arising, in which not only is looked at an interesting relation between price and quality, but also to which extent a location is located in the vicinity of public transport. This development forces the demand for large office spaces, however the new total of square meters has appeared to be lower than the locations where the companies were accommodated in the first place. Furthermore, those offices are often left behind empty. A good example of this is the Dutch government. Because of the rising number of independents, the demand for smaller office spaces is increasing. Office concepts, where a few or more workplaces are let, are very soughtafter. There is a large increase in available space for small office space users, also by making larger office buildings suitable. These are divided into smaller units and are put on the market as multi-tenanted office buildings. 2 The Netherlands Office markets 2015

3 The economic prospects still being so uncertain, companies are asking for more flexibility when commencing or renewing a lease. There is definitely a demand for shorter lease periods and also, contracts need to contain clauses that make it possible in a easy way to increase or decrease the amount of square metres let. Trends and developments Except for the economic developments other trends and developments also influence the demand and available supply on the office market. In an increasing degree, companies are also asking their employees for a more flexible attitude. Due to the introduction of the flexible workstation the office space requirement per single employee has been reduced to approximately 0,8 per FTE in This means a significant reduction in expenses. Also, many people do not exclusively work in the office, but just as well at home or en route. Office space suppliers must compete with public workstations like hotel lobbies and home offices. Because of this, the office environment as such is subject to change and more often is a meeting place where working together and mutual communication is the centre of attention. Technological innovations are also of influence in the changing office environment. The paperless organisation, one which we could not deem possible a short while ago, seems to have made a permanent entrance. Today one mostly works with a tablet, laptop or smartphone. Also, because of the internet, one can work much faster and exchange information. These developments are happening in quick succession. Real Estate professionals need to anticipate technological developments such as continuing digitalisation, big data and cloud computing, in time. The traditional office s virtual and real-life world overlap each other more and more, lines are fading. This is why, with the current demand for office space, it is important that older locations are replaced by better quality accommodation. The keywords for companies are durability, a healthy work environment, socially responsible entrepreneurship and a better price/quality ratio. Take-up and supply in square metres lettable floor area Declining demand for offices All of the abovementioned developments are creating a decreasing demand for office space. Even in a flourishing economy it cannot be expected that the demand for office space will increase exponentially. Because of this decreasing demand for office space the actual demand will not increase. The available supply is increasing and with this increase, the amount of empty offices increases too. The quality of this supply is often not sufficient enough to get potential tenants interested. Alternative use is sought for many of these properties '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Supply Take-up The last couple of years municipalities have granted many planning titles for allowing to convert office buildings into, for instance, houses, student homes, hotels or catering industry. By doing this, office space is withdrawn from stock, resulting in less square metres available to let or for sale. Nevertheless, there is still no sign of a significant decrease of the total supply. The question is, if other markets such as the housing market or the hotel market will be able to fill in all the surplus of square metres of the office market. Probably not. Some offices will have to be demolished to bring the market back in balance. New developments will sometimes also be inevitable, because of the main lack of highquality buildings among the available office supply. Office markets 2015 The Netherlands 3

4 Supply (x square metres of lettable floor area as of January 1st) Region Amsterdam Den Haag The Hague Rotterdam Utrecht Total big cities Eindhoven Almere Amersfoort Arnhem Zwolle Apeldoorn Den Bosch Groningen Breda Drechtsteden Leeuwarden Enschede Nijmegen Hengelo Maastricht Tilburg Deventer Heerlen Assen Sittard Total Other Total the Netherlands Building without planning permission or just for the stock is a thing of the past. Realisation of new office buildings is mostly only carried out upon request for a specific user. Councils are keeping new developments to a minimum. Newly-built properties are only possible in exceptional cases. Because offices are becoming cheaper more and more, existing buildings are often a good alternative for new development. It is cheaper to radically renovate an office building than to build a new one. By doing so, outdated properties can still be designated another use. Small increase in supply About two developments are happening at the moment: a decrease of office demand on one hand and transforming office space and by doing that, withdrawing it from the market, on the other. The transforming process is very time-consuming and as a result only a couple of renovations of office buildings take place in some regions. In the meantime users are still disposing of square metres of lettable floor area back onto the market. This makes the supply increase slightly. On 1 January 2015 the supply of available office space was 7,285,000 square metres. This is an increase of 2% compared to last year. At the beginning of 2015, the supply of office space is lower than one year ago in 11 of the 24 researched regions. If we look at the four big cities then we see that the amount of available square metres lettable floor area in Rotterdam and Utrecht has decreased compared to the same period last year. In Amsterdam and The Hague the supply has increased. Mainly Amsterdam has a strong office market. More than a quarter of the total take-up of office space took place in the capital. 4 The Netherlands Office markets 2015

5 Percentage of available accommodation accounted for by new construction as of January 1st Region Den Haag The Hague 6% 4% 4% 8% 4% 5% 2 Amsterdam 10% 6% 7% 2% 3% 3% 3 Rotterdam 3% 3% 11% 2% 1% 1% 4 Utrecht 8% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Total big cities 8% 4% 6% 3% 3% 3% 5 Zwolle 27% 24% 20% 4% 15% 13% 6 Heerlen 21% 17% 17% 10% 7% 8% 7 Almere 44% 42% 40% 21% 12% 7% 8 Assen 8% 2% 1% 3% 2% 5% 9 Breda 11% 2% 1% 1% 3% 4% 10 Hengelo 11% 12% 12% 5% 4% 4% 11 Nijmegen 9% 5% 15% 1% 5% 3% 12 Groningen 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 13 Leeuwarden 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 14 Amersfoort 27% 27% 1% 0% 0% 0% 15 Apeldoorn 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 16 Arnhem 9% 8% 8% 1% 0% 0% 17 Den Bosch 4% 2% 15% 0% 0% 0% 18 Deventer 18% 3% 12% 3% 0% 0% 19 Drechtsteden 3% 4% 7% 0% 0% 0% 20 Eindhoven 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 21 Enschede 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 0% 22 Maastricht 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23 Sittard 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24 Tilburg 0% 15% 8% 0% 0% 0% Total Other 13% 11% 10% 3% 3% 2% Total the Netherlands 10% 7% 8% 3% 3% 3% Several new developments are also possible in Amsterdam. Mainly on the Zuidas several large new office buildings are being built. But in other locations, mostly in the same region, office spaces are left behind empty. In The Hague an increase of supply can be seen. This is mainly caused by the government. The introduction of flexiworking and the cabinet wanting to reduce the amount of civil servants results in declining demand for office space. Information shows that nearly half of all of the empty office buildings in The Hague are owned by the government. In The Hague the vacancies are a problem for the government, more than in other cities. In other cities there are private parties that own a larger part of the real estate. No less than 63% of the total real estate supply can be found in the four big cities. The other 37% is found in the twenty other regions. Traditionally, Eindhoven has the largest supply. At the beginning of 2015 the office supply in this city occupies 272,000 square metres of office area. Almere and Amersfoort respectively have 233,000 and 217,000 square metres of office area. Just like previous years, Sittard has the lowest amount of available square metres: 24,000. The amount of available square metres office space in the four big cities increases annually with 3%. The supply is 4,581,000 square metres at the moment. In the other regions the supply remains almost the same. At the beginning of 2015 the total Dutch supply amounted up to 2,704,000 square metres. Office markets 2015 The Netherlands 5

6 New development The percentage of new development shows how much of the total office supply concerns new development that has already been delivered or will be finished within a year. At the beginning of % of the total amount of available square metres is newly built. New developments that were delivered a couple of years ago, but which are still not in use at the moment, are also included in this percentage. The highest amount of available square metres of new development is found in Zwolle: 13% of the total amount. In the four big cities The Hague has the highest percentage of new developments (5%). Due to the fact that building at personal risk hardly takes place anymore, the percentage of new development has remained the same for the last couple of years. An increase of this percentage could be the result of the short-term deliverance of already existing building projects. Moreover, some office buildings are being developed, of which the main tenant has already signed the lease, but the remainder of square metres has not been filled in yet. Transaction volume The volume of transactions concerns all transactions of 500 square metres and over in the four big cities and of 250 square metres and over in the other regions. The total volume increased last year from 943,000 square metres to 993,000 square metres compared to 2013, which is an increase of 5%. In Rotterdam, Utrecht, Den Haag and Amsterdam a total of 619,000 square metres office space was let or sold last year. Thereby, the four big cities are accountable for 62% of the total of take-up volume. Amsterdam is the leader of all four big cities and Take-up of office space (x square metres of lettable floor area) Region Amsterdam Den Haag The Hague Utrecht Rotterdam Total big cities Eindhoven Den Bosch Arnhem Amersfoort Groningen Almere Breda Enschede Nijmegen Zwolle Apeldoorn Deventer Leeuwarden Tilburg Hengelo Maastricht Heerlen Sittard Assen Drechtsteden Total Other Total the Netherlands The Netherlands Office markets 2015

7 is accountable for 26% of the total Dutch take-up of office space, The Hague 14%, Utrecht 12% and Rotterdam 10%. Compared to 2013, 26,000 square metres more office space was let or sold last year in the four big cities. This is a take-up increase of 4%. In 2014 a total of 374,000 square metres office space was taken-up in the other regions, which means an increase of 7% compared to Per region the transaction volumes are subject to hefty fluctuations. One single takeup can already be of great influence. For instance, when a large office user rents a new location, this can already distort the take-up volume. Those kind of transactions are often incidental and fulfill a replacement need. It therefore does not actually revolve around effective increase in demand. The prospect of the years to come is that large office users will replace their current location for a smaller property with a better price/quality ratio. Lease contracts with a 10 years term and which were concluded in 2008, will expire in the next few years. Because of this the demand for reaccommodation is expected to increase, but this does not neccessarily lead to an effective take-up. The demand will probably mean replacing current locations and hardly an effective increase of take-up. There is also a high chance that lessors will try to commit existing users to them with attractive conditions. User transactions In 2014 a total of 744 user transactions were registered. This is a slight decrease (of 6 properties) in regard to 2013 and mostly concern letting transactions. Only a small part concerns a purchase for domestic use. Most transactions took place in Amsterdam. 154 Number of transactions in 2014 increase relative to 2013 and average unit size Region Transactions % Increase Average unit size 1 Amsterdam 154 8% Den Haag The Hague 84 17% Rotterdam 66-14% Utrecht 53-17% Total big cities 357 0% Eindhoven 41 14% Den Bosch 31-14% Breda 30 50% Nijmegen 29-6% Amersfoort 28-36% Almere 27 93% Zwolle 26 30% Enschede 23-26% Arnhem 21 5% Groningen 20-9% Maastricht 17 13% Tilburg 15 0% Apeldoorn 14-39% Deventer 14 8% Hengelo 13 30% Assen 9 29% Drechtsteden 9-63% Leeuwarden 9 800% Heerlen 6 50% Sittard 5-38% Total Other 387-2% 967 Total the Netherlands 744-1% Office markets 2015 The Netherlands 7

8 Offices were let or sold in this region with an area of a minimum of 500 square metres, eleven more take-ups than in In transactions took place in The Hague, compared to 72 of the previous year: an increase of 12. In Rotterdam and Utrecht respectively 66 and 53 transactions were registered. Compared to 2013 this means a decrease of eleven transactions for these two cities. In all of the other regions 389 transactions were registered last year, five less than in Eindhoven registered the most take-ups: 41 office properties. Transaction size In all of the regions the average transaction size has increased. An average transaction in 2014 was 1,334 square metres, whilst being 919 square metres in This increase is mainly caused by several large take-ups. The average office size in the four big cities is 1,733 square metres at the moment. In other regions this is evidently smaller: approximately 967 square metres. In the whole of 2014 there were only seven take-ups with an area larger than 10,000 square metres. Most of the transactions (39%) are registered in the 500 to 1,000 square metres size catagory, following by the 1,000 to 5,000 square metres size catagory (34%) and the 250 to 500 square metres size catagory (22%). Only 5% of all transactions concern offices larger than 5,000 square metres. Office market ratio The office market ratio shows the relation between the demand of one year and the available supply at the end of the same year. By looking at the office market ratio one can see if there is a healthy relation between the demand and supply on the office Office market ratio (ratio of occupancy to availability) by region Region Utrecht 14% 18% 20% 12% 16% 18% 2 Amsterdam 19% 12% 16% 18% 15% 14% 3 Den Haag The Hague 20% 13% 8% 12% 13% 13% 4 Rotterdam 20% 18% 14% 9% 10% 10% Total big cities 18% 14% 14% 10% 13% 14% 5 Sittard 30% 3% 4% 12% 29% 32% 6 Breda 32% 37% 25% 8% 10% 21% 7 Groningen 26% 18% 11% 16% 9% 21% 8 Enschede 18% 19% 23% 26% 23% 21% 9 Nijmegen 23% 44% 36% 34% 22% 20% 10 Den Bosch 33% 52% 41% 21% 27% 19% 11 Deventer 9% 6% 15% 7% 15% 16% 12 Arnhem 34% 12% 13% 15% 12% 15% 13 Amersfoort 13% 14% 13% 10% 19% 13% 14 Eindhoven 13% 14% 22% 11% 12% 13% 15 Almere 20% 23% 16% 4% 7% 12% 16 Tilburg 8% 16% 18% 16% 13% 12% 17 Heerlen 7% 13% 9% 5% 1% 12% 18 Leeuwarden 10% 28% 1% 1% 3% 11% 19 Assen 24% 20% 10% 13% 14% 10% 20 Maastricht 29% 20% 67% 12% 13% 10% 21 Zwolle 28% 11% 10% 7% 12% 10% 22 Apeldoorn 14% 17% 21% 9% 8% 9% 23 Hengelo 27% 26% 12% 17% 6% 9% 24 Drechtsteden 22% 8% 12% 13% 15% 4% Total Other 21% 18% 18% 10% 13% 14% Total the Netherlands 19% 16% 16% 10% 13% 14% 8 The Netherlands Office markets 2015

9 market. If the ratio increases, then the demand and supply are closer to each other and there is a tighter market. If the ratio decreases, then the gap between demand and supply becomes larger. In 2014 the office market ratio of all regions was 14%. This is an increase of 1% in comparisen with According to expectations the balance between demand and supply in the Randstad conurbation will improve in the next few years, because the take-up volume might increase due to an increase in the replacement demand. Also, the demand is being restricted by a rising number of withdrawels. The office market ratio of the four big cities reflects the national tendency: an average of 14%. Utrecht is the only city of the four big cities to have a tight office market, with a ratio of 18%. Nevertheless, there still is a broad market ratio and the supply vastly exeeds the demand. In Rotterdam the demand and supply vary the most: here the office market ratio amounts up to 10%, in Amsterdam 14% and in The Hague 13%. In other regions the ratios vary much, from 4% in Drechtsteden to 32% in Sittard. Nijmegen, Enschede, Groningen and Breda have a ratio of 20% or more. Due to the changes in take-up volume the market ratios fluctuate. A large transaction can make the office market ratio increase a few percentages, just like that. Prime rents In Amsterdam the highest rents are paid for office space. This can be ascertained by looking at the user transactions and the published rental price per square metres per annum. One pays the highest amount per square metre on Amsterdam s Zuidas : This was in The average rental price in Amsterdams city centre is per square metre per annum. This is a decrease as regards to 2013, when an amount of had to be paid for the same floor area. The rental prices in The Hagues new city centre are an average of per square metre per annum. A prime rent is paid in Amstelveen and Hoofddorp: per square metre per annum. The highest rental price outside of the four large cities can be found in Tilburgs city centre: per square metre per annum, followed by Eindhoven with per square metre per annum for a space in Eindhoven City Centre. In Zeist/Driebergen the rental price is per square metre per annum. Top rentals obtained in euros per square metres of lettable floor area of office space Region Rent Amsterdam Zuidas 335 Amsterdam Zuidas 314 Amsterdam East 305 Amsterdam Centre 295 Amsterdam Centre 285 Amsterdam Southern IJ-oevers area 270 Amsterdam Zuidas 200 Den Haag New Centre 195 Amstelveen 190 Hoofddorp 190 Tilburg Centre 198 Eindhoven Centre 190 Zeist / Driebergen 186 Office markets 2015 The Netherlands 9

10 Incentives are not taken into account in this ranking of rental prices. Incentives are often still used by lessors, but these incentives aren t transparent and therefore cannot be measured. Because of the broad market ratios the rental prices are generally still under pressure. But in some places, there is scarcity, for instance because of the situation in a very attractive location or if it is a popular building. In some cases this logically leads to a upward pressure on the market prices. A tenant looking for a good price/quality ratio does not mind paying more for a high quality office. Very popular locations, where there is a low supply, are an exception. The prices might increase even more in those locations. Subdivision per branch In 2014 the sector ICT and Telecom was responsible for the largest part of the total transaction volume, which was 12%. A year before, the branch Legal services, accountancy, tax advice and holdings was the largest, with a share of 13% of the total transaction volume. In 2014 only 6% of the take-up volume was generated by this sector. Because companies in the ICT and Telecom branch are expanding a lot, this sector of industry is expected to have the highest actual demand. The branch Public management, Civil services and compulsory social insurance had a share of 10% of the total take-up volume in 2014, just as much as the branch Industry. This division in branches is based on the division of the Central Statistical Office. The transaction volume of twenty sectors of industry is compared. Most of the demand for office space concerns replacement demand. It is not clear which sector of industry has an increasing demand for office space at the moment by comparing branches. However, it does become apparent which kind of companies were looking for new housing in the previous year. Take-up by sector according to square metres in 2014 Sector the Netherlands Amsterdam Den Haag Rotterdam Utrecht ICT and Telecom 12% 15% 8% 5% 13% Public management, Civil services and compulsory social insurance 10% - 22% 4% 20% Industry 10% 9% 9% 20% 1% Healthcare and welfare 8% 6% 8% 4% 9% Financial services 8% 14% 11% 4% 7% Wholesale and retail trade 7% 12% 1% 1% 16% Real estate letting and trading 6% 9% 2% 5% 10% Legal services, accountancy, tax advice and holdings 6% 9% 14% 4% 3% Education 6% 1% 8% 11% 3% Trade associations and non-profit organisations 5% 3% 2% 5% 7% Building and Real Estate industry 4% 2% - 14% 3% Real estate letting 4% 6% 1% 11% 2% Marketing, communication and media 4% 7% 3% 4% - Business and other services 3% 1% 3% - 3% Production and distribution of and trading in electricity, natural gas, power and cooled air 2% 1% 4% 4% - Culture, sports and recreation 2% 2% 2% - 1% Transport and storage 2% 1% 1% 4% 2% Provision of accomodation, meals and beverages 1% 2% 1% - - Excavation and distribution of water, garbage and effluent management and sanitation Other The Netherlands Office markets 2015

11 The branch ICT and Telecom in the Amsterdam region is, just like in the rest of The Netherlands, responsible for the largest part of the take-up volume, which is 15%. And just like in the rest of The Netherlands, this position was taken over from the branch Legal services, accountancy, tax advice and holdings. That sector of industry was leading in the capital with 18% in In the previous year many companies from the branch Public management, Civil services and compulsory social insurance in The Hague were moved: 22% of the total transaction volume there can be accredited to this branch. Most of the take-ups in Utrecht can also be accredited to this branch (20%). In Rotterdam most office space was let or sold to companies from the branch Industry (20%). Small floor areas Transactions in the four big cities with a floor area of 250 to 500 square metres and of 0 to 250 square metres in all of the other regions have been seperately mapped out for this report, because of an apparent greater demand. In 2014, in total 694 small office transactions took place: 48% of the total of Dutch transactions, which means 1,439 take-ups. Not only is the amount of small let or sold offices increasing, but also the take-up volume: 141,500 square metres of small units were taken-up in 2014, which means an increase of 27% compared to In the smallest size-class it is companies from the branch Healthcare and welfare, that have increased the most. They are accountable for 12% of the total take-up volume. The branches ICT and Telecom, Legal services, accountancy, tax advice and holdings and Marketing, communication and media were respectively responsible for 11%, 11% and 10% of the total of taken-up square Number of square meters include small office floor space. Four major cities m 2 and other <250m 2 Region Amsterdam Den Haag The Hague Utrecht Rotterdam Total big cities Amersfoort Zwolle Eindhoven Breda Enschede Nijmegen Drechtsteden Arnhem Groningen Apeldoorn Deventer Den Bosch Almere Maastricht Assen Hengelo Leeuwarden Tilburg Heerlen Sittard Total Other Total the Netherlands Office markets 2015 The Netherlands 11

12 metres small office space in Of all four big cities, Amsterdam is accountable for the highest take-up volume of office space in the size of 250 and 500 square metres. In this class 32,150 square metres were let or sold in the capital in total in With 95 transactions that means a considerable increase compared to 2013, when the amount was 29,300 square metres. The Hague, Utrecht and Rotterdam are respectively accountable for 62, 50 and 45 transactions. In total in the four big cities 86,750 square metres of small office space were taken-up last year, which means an increase of 24% compared to In the other regions a total of 54,750 square metres smaller office space was let. This means an increase there of 32% for the total transaction level of transactions compared to It was only Sittard that was not accountable for any transaction in the category of smaller than 250 square metres. The most transactions of small office space took place in Eindhoven: 45 and 4,700 square metres in total. Amersfoort is accountable for less small transactions, but for a higher transaction volume: 5,200 square metres and 39 transactions. 12 The Netherlands Office markets 2015

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