Profit or bust? The latest trends in Public Liability and Professional Indemnity Samantha Fuller & Scott Duncan Taylor Fry Consulting Actuaries This presentation has been prepared for the Actuaries Institute 2012 General Insurance Seminar. The Institute Council wishes it to be understood that opinions put forward herein are not necessarily those of the Institute and the Council is not responsible for those opinions. 1
Outline Background Public & Product Liability Australia wide State/Territory Industry / Occupation groups Professional Indemnity Australia wide State/Territory Industry / Occupation groups 2
Background on NCPD Data for Australia and by State based on Dec 2011 - Level 1 Data for Industry groups based on Level 2 as at Dec 2010 Level 2, heavily masked Our analysis is restricted to Non-Facility business APRA regulated entities only 3
Our Approach Use Australia wide experience Project ultimate costs blending PPCI, PCE, PPCF (including operational time) projections Analyse State experience relative to Australia Analyse Industry experience relative to Australia Use relativities to forecast future loss ratios Excludes U/W and CHE expenses 4
Overview of Public and Product Liability Coverage: Legal liability to the public and/or other entities for injury or property damage from the operation of the insured s business Compensation for loss and/or injury caused by, or as a result of, the use of goods; and Environmental clean-up costs caused by pollution spills if not covered by Fire &ISR policies 5
Overview of Public & Product Liability 6
Australia Wide Analysis Claim Frequency and Average Claim Size Average claim size: no significant trends by accident year. Increases by delay to finalisation. 7
Australia Wide Analysis Ultimate Gross Loss Ratios 8
State Split Relative Loss Ratios to Date Relatively speaking: QLD & ACT have had worse experience; while NT, TAS, WA & SA have generally been better. NB: Despite data improvements, the sum of state based claims cost experience is still some 20-30% lower than the Aus wide experience 9 for more recent years. However GEP is a good match.
Industry Groups 55 individual specifications grouped into 15 categories: 10
Relative Claim Frequency by Industry Group Accident Year GEP $M 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 Agriculture 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 80 Mining 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 50 Manufacturing 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 246 Utilities 2.6 2.1 5.7 2.3 2.5 12 Construction 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 351 Wholesaling 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 75 Retail 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 237 Transport 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 53 Government 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 53 Services 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 126 Other 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 330 Unknown 5.1 6.3 6.2 5.9 8.2 2 *Frequency based on number of risks written 11
Average Claims Cost Relativity by Industry Group Accident Year Average GEP $M 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004-2008 2010 Agriculture 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.8 80.2 Mining 3.8 1.8 4.7 1.0 1.6 2.9 24.8 Manufacturing 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.3 2.2 2.1 245.5 Utilities 4.6 2.4 0.0 Construction 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 350.7 Wholesaling 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 74.7 Retail 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 237.3 Transport 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.7 48.5 Government 1.3 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.9 1.7 47.8 Services 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 126.3 Other 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 309.7 Unknown 2.0 2.2 1.1 1.6 0.7 1.6 2.2 12
Relative Loss Ratios to Date by Industry Group *Based on average experience for 2004-2008 relative to Australia wide experience *Unknown has been excluded 13
Show me the money. Loss ratios are generally rising estimate 2012 likely to reach around 60-65% (conventional loss ratio) or 50-55% (actuarial loss ratio), assuming no changes in pricing basis; Manufacturing, Construction, Retail & Transport are worse than the average likely driven by competitive pricing for largest sectors Construction & Retail suffered particularly in 2009 14
Show me the money. Of the better performers. Mining & Wholesaling appear to be attractive propositions, with average premiums in the region of $1,500 to $2,000. Agriculture, Services, Government & Other are generally the most attractive, although average premiums are lower at around around $380 to $750 per risk. However, one might expect expenses to be a higher proportion of gross premiums for these sectors. 15
Overview of Professional Indemnity Coverage: Legal actions taken against a person for advice or service supplied as part of their professional practice, incl. related legal expenses Directors & Officers Liability Insurance & legal expense insurance; and Medical Indemnity Insurance. NB. Most PI policies written on a claims made basis- accident year triangles are more akin to report year. 16
Overview of Professional Indemnity 17
Australia Wide Analysis Claim Frequency and Average Claim Size Average claim size: no significant trends by accident year. Increases by delay to finalisation. 18
Australia wide analysis Ultimate Gross Loss Ratios 19
Relatively speaking: State split Relative loss ratios QLD, TAS, ACT and NSW have had worse experience; while NT, VIC, WA & SA have generally been better. NB: Despite data improvements, the sum of state based claims cost experience is still some 15-25% lower than the Aus wide experience 20 for more recent years. However GEP is a good match.
70 occupations rolled up into 14 groups PI - Industry groups Other is made up of a broad range of occupations. Those with a numeric prefix are included here. 21
Relative Frequency by Industry Group Accident Year GEP $M 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 Finance 2.7 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 165.5 General Consultants 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 70.8 Medical 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 388.1 Legal 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 111.2 Real Estate 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.3 25.2 Agriculture 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.2 10.8 Schools 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 16.2 Insurance 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 12.6 Local Government 1.0 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.0 Architects 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 14.9 Engineering 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 118.2 Surveying 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.6 3.5 13.8 Defamation 3.5 3.7 3.7 2.4 2.9 3.0 Multiple 1.3 0.1 0.1 Other 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 280.3 22 *Frequency based on number of risks written
Average claims cost relativity by Industry Group Accident Year Average GEP $M 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004-2008 2010 Finance 1.1 1.9 3.3 2.0 1.6 2.0 165.5 General Consultants 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.5 70.8 Medical 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 388.1 Legal 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.5 0.0 Real Estate 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 25.2 Agriculture 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 10.8 Schools 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.2 16.2 Insurance 1.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.7 12.6 Local Government 0.8 0.4 0.0 Architects 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.0 0.7 14.9 Engineering 4.6 4.1 2.9 1.6 2.5 3.0 118.2 Surveying 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.1 13.8 Defamation 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 Multiple 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.3 164.2
Relative loss ratios by Industry Group *Based on average experience for 2004-2008 relative to Australia wide experience *Unknown has been excluded 24
Show me the money. Loss ratios have been increasing in recent years estimate 2012 likely to reach around 100-110% (conventional loss ratio) or 75-85% (actuarial loss ratio), assuming no changes in pricing basis; The Other, Finance, Engineering and Surveying occupation groups have performed the worst. Finance was particularly poor during 2008. The loss ratio to date for this year is approx. 140%.
Show me the money. Of the better performers. Medical Indemnity (although there is evidence this favourable experience is starting to unwind). Large premium pool and claims costs reduced substantially following tort law reforms in early 2000s General Consulting Schools and local government. Average premium per risk is approx. $2,200 for schools and $9,300 for local governments, however, total pool is small.
Level 2 unmasked coming soon Either: Further enhancements Test Industry prediction capability or Isolate particular industries and consider Op time PPCFs State based needs to consider op time differences (substantial gap in Incurred cost c.t. Aus aggregate). 27
Appendices 28
PL Appendix: State split Similar breakdown by risks written. In aggregate there was a 2% decrease in the number of risks written from 2010 to 2011. WA, NT and ACT have grown fastest over the last three years at 7%, 13% and 17% respectively over this period. 29
PL Appendix: State split - Frequency Increasing freq 2011 accident year ranking: WA QLD --------- (AUS) NSW SA TAS VIC NT &ACT variable 30
PL Appendix: Average Written Premium per Risk by Industry Note: Utilities not displayed. 31
PL Appendix: Occupation Groups Code Description Group PL-01 01 - Agriculture Agriculture PL-02 02 - Services to Agriculture; Hunting and Trapping Agriculture PL-03 03 - Forestry and Logging Agriculture PL-04 04 - Commercial Fishing Agriculture PL-11 11 - Coal Mining Mining PL-12 12 - Oil and Gas Extraction Mining PL-13 13 - Metal Ore Mining Mining PL-14 14 - Other Mining Mining PL-15 15 - Other Non Metallic Minerals Mining PL-21 21 - Food, Beverage and Tobacco Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-22 22 - Textile, Clothing, Footwear and Leather Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-23 23 - Wood and Paper Product Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-24 24 - Printing, Publishing and Recorded Media Manufacturing PL-25 25 - Petroleum, Coal, Chemical and Associated Product Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-26 26 - Non Metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-27 27 - Metal Product Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-28 28 - Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-29 29 - Other Manufacturing Manufacturing PL-36 36 - Electricity and Gas Supply Utilities PL-37 37 - Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Services Utilities PL-41 41 - General Construction Construction PL-42 42 - Construction Trade Services Construction PL-45 45 - Basic Material Wholesaling Wholesaling PL-46 46 - Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling Wholesaling PL-47 47 - Personal and Household Good Wholesaling Wholesaling PL-51 51 - Food Retailing Retail PL-52 52 - Personal and Household Good Retailing Retail PL-53 53 - Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services Retail PL-57 57 - Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants Retail PL-61 61 - Road Transport Transport PL-62 62 - Rail Transport Transport PL-63 63 - Water Transport Transport PL-64 64 - Air and Space Transport Transport PL-65 65 - Other Transport Transport PL-66 66 - Services to Transport Transport PL-67 67 - Storage Other PL-71 71 - Communication Other PL-73 73 - Finance Other PL-74 74 - Insurance Other PL-75 75 - Services to Finance and Insurance Other PL-77 77 - Property Services Other PL-78 78 - Business Services Other PL-81 81 - Government Administration Government PL-82 82 - Defence Government PL-84 84 - Education Government PL-86 86 - Health Services Government PL-87 87 - Community Services Government PL-91 91 - Motion Picture, Radio and Television Services Services PL-92 92 - Libraries, Museums and the Arts Services PL-93 93 - Sport and Recreation Services PL-95 95 - Personal Services Services PL-96 96 - Other Services Services PL-97 97 - Private Households Employing Staff Services PL-99 99 - Multiple Other PL-UN UNK - Unknown Unknown 32
PI Appendix: State split If we were to use risks written as a measure of size QLD and SA would increase whilst NSW would decrease in significance. In aggregate there was a 5% increase in the number of risks written from 2010 to 2011. QLD and NT have exhibited significant growth in earned premium over the last three years (23% and 28% respectively) although most of this arose over 2008/09. 33
PI Appendix: State split - Frequency Increasing freq 2011 accident year ranking: NSW WA --------- (AUS) VIC SA QLD TAS NT range 1.5% to 3.2% ACT range 2.5% to 3.5%
PI Appendix: Average Written Premium per Risk by Industry 35
PI Appendix: Occupation Groups Code Description Group PI-01 01 - Agriculture Other PI-02 02 - Services to Agriculture; Hunting and Trapping Other PI-03 03 - Forestry and Logging Other PI-04 04 - Commercial Fishing Other PI-11 11 - Coal Mining Other PI-12 12 - Oil and Gas Extraction Other PI-13 13 - Metal Ore Mining Other PI-14 14 - Other Mining Other PI-15 15 - Other Non Metallic Minerals Other PI-21 21 - Food, Beverage and Tobacco Manufacturing Other PI-22 22 - Textile, Clothing, Footwear and Leather Manufacturing Other PI-23 23 - Wood and Paper Product Manufacturing Other PI-24 24 - Printing, Publishing and Recorded Media Other PI-25 25 - Petroleum, Coal, Chemical and Associated Product Manufacturing Other PI-26 26 - Non Metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing Other PI-27 27 - Metal Product Manufacturing Other PI-28 28 - Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Other PI-29 29 - Other Manufacturing Other PI-36 36 - Electricity and Gas Supply Other PI-37 37 - Water Supply, Sewerage and Drainage Services Other PI-41 41 - General Construction Other PI-42 42 - Construction Trade Services Other PI-45 45 - Basic Material Wholesaling Other PI-46 46 - Machinery and Motor Vehicle Wholesaling Other PI-47 47 - Personal and Household Good Wholesaling Other PI-51 51 - Food Retailing Other PI-52 52 - Personal and Household Good Retailing Other PI-53 53 - Motor Vehicle Retailing and Services Other PI-57 57 - Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants Other PI-61 61 - Road Transport Other PI-62 62 - Rail Transport Other PI-63 63 - Water Transport Other PI-64 64 - Air and Space Transport Other PI-65 65 - Other Transport Other PI-66 66 - Services to Transport Other PI-67 67 - Storage Other PI-71 71 - Communication Other PI-73 73 - Finance Other PI-74 74 - Insurance Other PI-75 75 - Services to Finance and Insurance Other PI-77 77 - Property Services Other PI-78 78 - Business Services Other PI-81 81 - Government Administration Other PI-82 82 - Defence Other PI-84 84 - Education Other PI-86 86 - Health Services Other PI-87 87 - Community Services Other PI-91 91 - Motion Picture, Radio and Television Services Other PI-92 92 - Libraries, Museums and the Arts Other PI-93 93 - Sport and Recreation Other PI-95 95 - Personal Services Other PI-96 96 - Other Services Other PI-97 97 - Private Households Employing Staff Other PI-A A - Financial occupations Finance PI-B B - General Consultants General_Consult PI-C C - Medical & Paramedical occupations Medical PI-D D - Legal & Para Legal occupations Legal PI-E E - Real Estate occupations Real_Estate PI-F F - Agricultural, Horticultural occupations Agriculture PI-G G - Schools, Colleges occupations Schools PI-H H - Insurance occupations Insurance PI-I I - Local Government occupations Local_Gov PI-J J - Miscellaneous occupations Other PI-K K - Architects Architects PI-L L - Engineering occupations Engineering PI-M M - Surveying occupations Surveying PI-N N - Defamation Defamation PI-O O - Multiple occupations Multiple PI-UN UNK - Unknown Other 36