Drought Risk Assessment: Mapping the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems Dr. Jianping Yan Disaster Risk Assessment Specialist
Session Outline Understanding the Concept of Vulnerability Mapping the Agricultural System in GIS Developing Vulnerability Functions for Drought Risk Assessment Mapping the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems
What is Vulnerability? - Concept - Typology - Conceptual Models
Vulnerability= Vulnerability= Degree Degree or or extent extent of of potential potential damage damage or or loss loss Vulnerability = attribute or characteristics of Being resistant to a hazard What is Vulnerability? Vulnerability Vulnerability = Ability Ability or or capability capability to to anticipate, anticipate, cope cope with, with, resist, resist, recover recover from from the the impacts impacts of of a natural natural hazard hazard Vulnerability Vulnerability = Threat Threat Vulnerability = Conditions or situation with increase the susceptibility of a system Vulnerability = exposure
The issues with the use of Vulnerability The term Vulnerability is now used in such a loose and widespread manner that it is in danger of becoming as useless as the term Sustainability, and so some precision is needed to rescue it. (T. Cannon, 2006)
What is Element Vulnerability? Element Vulnerability refers to the degree of potential physical damage to the target elements at risk, such as a buildings, facilities, infrastructure, and lifelines in response to a hazard event of a given intensity.
Measurement of Element Vulnerability V element DamageRatio Cost Cost repair element
Early Warning on Damage
Vulnerability Functions DR (%) 100 80 60 40 20 DR (%) 100 80 60 40 20 IV V VI VII VIII IV V VI VII VIII MMI Intensity MMI Intensity
Fragility Function/Curve
What is System Vulnerability? System Vulnerability refers to the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of an anthropogenic system to the effect of hazards. System Vulnerability is the extrinsic property of an anthropogenic system that can be defined by the susceptibility, coping capacity, and resilience of the system.
Measurement of System Vulnerability
System Vulnerability: DM Perspective
System Vulnerability: 5S Model
Pressure & Release (PAR) Model (Wisner, et al., 2003)
Mapping the Agricultural System in GIS - Identifying & categorizing elements at risk - Analysis of inter-dependency & criticality - Inventory mapping
Categorization of Elements at Risk For Crops Rice, wheat, corn, cotton, bean, etc. For Livestocks Cattle, goat, poultry, etc. For Services Water supply, energy supply, etc. For Resources Farmers, soil, water, etc.
How to Characterize HS?
How to Characterize HS? Important Sectors
How to Characterize HS? Dependent Sectors Important Sectors
How to Characterize HS? Dependent Sectors coordination for recovery Important Sectors Priorities for recovery
Inventory Mapping Requirements Resolution and seasonality Data format Analysis unit Mapping Methods Proxy-based approach Geo-referenced approach Data sources
Inventory Mapping: Samples
Inventory Mapping: Samples
Inventory Mapping: Data Sources
Developing Vulnerability Functions for Drought Risk Assessment - Loss-Intensity Matrix for Drought - Vulnerability Functions
Vulnerability Functions: Flood
Drought Intensity Index
Changing Drought Intensity
Loss-Intensity Matrix for Drought Corn
Analysis of Historic Losses DR01 Corn DR02 Corn DR03 Corn DR01 Cotton DR02 Cotton DR03 Cotton DR01 Rice DR02 Rice DR03 Rice
Mapping the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems - Conceptual Model - The Process - The Method
Vulnerability Analysis: NDMC Approach A 3-step process: Identify the impacts of drought Rank the impacts Analysis the causes of the impacts NDMC Site: http://www.drought.unl.edu/risk/vulnerabilityanalysis.htm
Cause Analysis: Impacts Tree
Summary Vulnerability can be classified into Element Vulnerability and System Vulnerability. Vulnerability functions are created to calculate potential damage or loss to a given element at risk against a specified event intensity. System vulnerability provides a framework for identifying the social, economic, and environmental causes of disaster impacts. It directs attention to the underlying causes of vulnerability rather than to its result, the negative impacts.
Any Questions?