Short Term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability, 2005-2007 Presentation to NARUC Conference By Dr. John S. Bulger, Member February 2006
Canadian National Energy
Currently has 8 Members Chairman Kenneth Vollman Vice-Chairman Gaétan Caron Rowland Harrison The and its Members John Bulger Elizabeth Quarshie Deborah Emes Carmen Dybwad Patricia McCunn Miller
National Energy An independent quasi-judicial regulatory tribunal established in 1959 Report to Parliament through the Minister of Natural Resources Responsible for administering: the National Energy Act (NEB Act) the Oil and Gas Operations Act (COGO Act)
What does the NEB do? Regulatory role: Interprovincial and international pipelines Pipeline transportation, tolls and tariffs International and designated interprovincial power lines Exports of oil, natural gas and electricity Frontier oil and gas activities outside of Accord areas (COGO Act) Advisory role
Major Oil & Gas Pipelines In Enbridge Pipelines (NW) Westcoast Energy Trans Mountain Pipe Line ANG Pipeline Alliance Pipeline Express Pipeline Foothills Pipe Lines Cochin Pipe Lines Enbridge Pipelines Trans PipeLines Trans Québec & Maritimes Pipeline Trans-Northern Pipelines Enbridge Pipelines Vector Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline Sable Offshore Energy Inc.
Goals Goal 1 NEB-regulated facilities and activities are safe and secure, and perceived to be so. Goal 2 NEB-regulated facilities are built and operated in a manner that protects the environment and respects the rights of those affected. Goal 3 Canadians benefit from efficient energy infrastructure and markets. Goal 4 The NEB fulfills its mandate with the benefit of effective public engagement. Goal 5 The NEB delivers quality outcomes through innovative leadership and effective processes.
Natural Gas Production in WCSB Nova Scotia Offshore
The WCSB = Solution Gas + Conventional + Unconventional
Solution Gas Produced in conjunction with oil Historically ~ 8.5% of gas production in WCSB
Conventional Gas Wells 91.5% of gas production in WCSB Deliverability = Existing Gas Wells + Future Gas Wells
Bcf/d National Energy WCSB Production History Solution Gas and Conventional Gas Wells 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Soln Gas Pre-1996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Production Rate, MMcf/d 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 National Energy Average Conventional Gas Well Performance 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Projected 2006 Projected 2007 Projected 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Cumulative Production, MMcf
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 National Energy Unconventional Gas- NGC Production by Connection Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 pre-2003 2003 2004 2005
NGC Development in Alberta NGC Production and Well Drilling Mannville Net Coal > 4m 6000 1200 Annual NGC Wells Drille 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 1000 800 600 400 200 MMcf/d Horseshoe Canyon Net Coal > 2m 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Offshore Nova Scotia
Production, MMcf/d National Energy Offshore Nova Scotia Deliverability 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Thebaud Venture N Triumph Alma S Venture Compression
Alaska Gas Pipeline National Energy Other Potential Sources of Gas from Mackenzie Gas Pipeline Prince Rupert Kitimat Gros Cacouna Rabaska Canaport Bear Head
Bcf/d 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 National Energy Conclusion 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Solution Gas WCSB Old Gas Wells WCSB New Gas Wells East Coast Offshore Alberta - NGC
Short Term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability, 2005-2007 Available at: http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/energy/energyreports/ EMAGasSTDeliverability2005_2007/ EMAGasSTDeliverability2005_2007_e.htm
Extra Slides
0.125 National Energy NGC Average Connection Performance 0.100 MMcf/d 0.075 0.050 0.025 0.000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Month of Production 2003 NGC Avg Well, 614 Connections 2004 NGC Avg Well, 1434 Connections Avg NGC Conn 1st Decline Avg NGC Conn 2nd Decline SE AB Avg Conventional Gas Well- 2004