What Will 2015 Hold for the Seattle Economy & Residential Real Estate Market?

What Will 2015 Hold for the Seattle Economy & Residential Real Estate Market? A Presentation to Windermere Wall Street Group Presented by: Matthew Gardner Managing Principal 415 Westlake, Seattle 524 Second Ave, Suite 500 Seattle, WA 98104 206.442.9200

U.S Economic Outlook

U.S. Total Payroll Jobs at an There are Still 8.7 Million People Out of Work. But, Only 7.3M are Actually Looking! 142,000 140,000 138,000 136,000 134,000 132,000 130,000 128,000 126,000 124,000 122,000 All Time High 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan 2012 - Jul 2013 - Jan 2013 - Jul 2014 - Jan 2014 - Jul 2015 - Jan In 000 s Source: BLS & Gardner Economics Seasonally Adjusted Figures through February 2015

Monthly U.S. Payroll Change 600,000 11% We Averaged 260,000 New Jobs Per Month in 2014. Expect to See Modestly Faster Growth in 2015. Net Jobs Added 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0-100,000-200,000-300,000-400,000-500,000-600,000-700,000-800,000-900,000 Net Monthly Jobs Added (SA) Unemployment Rate 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Unemployment Rate Source: BLS & Gardner Economics Seasonally Adjusted Figures through January 2015

Guess Who s Still Working? 35% 30% Age Distribution of People at Work. 25% 20% By 2020, 25% of the Labor Force Will be Over 55. 15% 10% ¼ of the Population over 65 Are Still Working! 5% 0% Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Source: BLS & Gardner Economics Current Data through January 2015 (SA)

Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type Total Household Debt was $11.83 Trillion at the End of 2014! Is Student Debt Affecting Housing? You Bet It Is! 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Mortgages Lines of Credit Car Loans Credit Cards Student Loans Source: New York Fed Data Through Q4-14

U.S. Economic Forecast Inflation Is Still a Non-Factor & Well Below the Fed s Target; 2.5% Job Growth in 2015 = Potential for 3M New Jobs; Unemployment Rate Will Continue to Contract Look for 5.2% by the End 2015; and U.S. Still Considered a Safe Haven Globally Which Will Boost Economic Growth.

Washington State Economy

West Coast Employment Annual Employment Growth Rates We Compare Very Favorably to Most Major West Coast Markets. Investors Are Watching! San Jose Tacoma San Diego Denver Seattle San Francisco/Oakland Portland Boise Las Vegas Phoenix Santa Anna Sacremento Riverside San Bernadino Los Angeles, Long Beach, Glendale 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% SOURCE: BLS & Gardner Economics Seasonally Adjusted Data (December 2014)

Employment Growth Varies Annual Employment Change Most Metro Areas Are Expanding Faster than the U.S. Short-Term Growth Has Turned Negative in Longview & Wenatchee. Tacoma Wenatchee Kennewick/Pasco/Richland Seattle MSA Bellingham Longview Spokane Yakima Mount Vernon Olympia Bremerton -1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% Source: WA ESD & BLS Data Through December 2014

Annual Job Growth Seattle Metro Area Professional & Business Services 10,300 Aerospace Unlikely to Turn Around in 2015. Trade Construction Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality 5,200 3,800 8,200 10,000 But, Overall, Very Reasonable Growth Numbers. Information Other Manufacturing Other Services Local Government Financial Activities State Government 3,200 3,100 2,600 2,500 2,300 1,000 Federal Government 300 TWU 1/ -500 Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing -3,300-4,000-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1/ - Transportation, Warehousing& Utilities Source: WA ESD Y/Y Data through December 2014 (SA)

But Recovery is Bifurcated Sector Pre- Recession Peak Employment Trough Employment Current Employment % Change from Prior Peak Information 83,600 83,100 92,900 11.1% Retail Trade 148,800 134,400 164,400 10.5% Professional & Business Services 218,300 192,900 237,200 8.7% Leisure and Hospitality 138,300 128,600 150,100 8.5% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 272,800 246,600 285,700 4.7% Government 204,100 199,500 210,200 3.0% Manufacturing 171,100 146,000 170,900-0.1% Wholesale Trade 72,800 65,500 72,400-0.5% Financial Activities 94,300 79,100 86,300-8.5% Construction 101,100 62,500 82,100-18.8% Educational & Health Services N/A N/A 203,500 N/A SOURCE: WA ESD & Gardner Economics Data Through December 2014 Seattle MSA

Unemployment Rates. 11.0% 10.0% Seattle M.S.A. U.S. Looking Good in Seattle and the Rate is Expected to Continue to Contract. 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.6% 5.0% 4.0% 4.6% 3.0% Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Source: WA ESD Data through December 2014 (SA) Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14

Employment Growth Seattle MSA 60,000 Healthy Growth Rates Will Continue through 2015. 40,000 20,000 0-20,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (f) -40,000-60,000-80,000-100,000 SOURCE: WA ESD Historic Data & Gardner Economics Forecasts

Regional Employment Situation Seattle Remains One of the Best West Coast Locations Relative to Potential Growth in 2015; Overall, We Are Looking Better than a Vast Majority of States in the Union; and We are Forecasting Close to 48,000 New Jobs Will Be Created in the Metro Area this Year. SpaceEx, Facebook, Alibaba!

U.S. Housing Market

Summary Outlook: A Multiyear Housing Recovery Will Continue Because: No Recession On it s Way, (but a Slow Economy); Continued Job Growth and Household Formations Getting Started; and Lagging Housing Starts and Continuing Housing Shortage. U.S. Home Prices are Primed to Rise by 3.5% in 2015. First Time Buyers Should Start to Enter the Market. Mortgage Rates Will Remain Very Competitive. Current Delinquency Rates down to 5.85%; Loans in Foreclosure down to 2.39%.

Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Will Rise in 2015! Jumbo Rates Dropped Below 4% at the Start of the Year! 19% of All Loans were Jumbos in 2014. 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 prj Average 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage SOURCE: Freddie Mac with Gardner Economics Forecast

In Several Months, Jumbo s were Actually Cheaper than Conventional Loans 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 30-Year Rate Comparison 1/19/2011 4/19/2011 7/19/2011 10/19/2011 1/19/2012 4/19/2012 7/19/2012 10/19/2012 1/19/2013 4/19/2013 7/19/2013 10/19/2013 1/19/2014 4/19/2014 7/19/2014 10/19/2014 1/19/2015 Jumbo Rates Conforming Rates Average 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages Excluding Points SOURCE: Gardner Economics

Better to Own or Buy? (Silly Question!) Even in the Worst of Times, It s Better to Own! Wealth Recovery from Bubble Years and Those that Bought Since 2010. $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Household Net Worth x46 x36 x46 x31 x34 x50 x30 x22 x36 $0 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 owner renter SOURCE: Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances

770 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 690 680 670 FICO Scores for Approved LOans August-11 September-11 October-11 November-11 December-11 January-12 February-12 March-12 April-12 May-12 June-12 July-12 August-12 September-12 October-12 November-12 December-12 January-13 February-13 March-13 April-13 May-13 June-13 July-13 August-13 September-13 October-13 November-13 December-13 January-14 February-14 March-14 April-14 May-14 June-14 July-14 August-14 September-14 October-14 November-14 December-14 January-15 FICO Scores For Approved Purchasers Are Still Far Higher Than They Needs to Be, But Are Slowly Coming Down. (Expect this Trend to Continue in 2015) Banks/Regulators Not Easing Credit (Average F.I.C.O. Scores of Approved Loans) Conventional Loans FHA Loans Source: Gardner Economics & Ellie Mae

Local Residential Markets

Argument that Housing is Actually Still Modestly Underpriced 250 This Suggests that We Still Have Some Potential for Prices to Move Higher Without a Bubble Forming. 200 150 100 50 0 Seattle Market Trend SOURCE: S&P Case Shiller YTD Data through January 2015

Interesting Trend in 2014 With New Homes Garnering a Huge Premium. Why? Little Choice in the Resale Arena! Seattle Metro Area Home Prices New vs Resale Annual Average Price $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 In $000's Existing New SOURCE: NWMLS

Seattle

Resale Transactions & Prices City of Seattle Prices Recovery is Clearly in Place and We are 3% Below our Previous Peak 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Sales Avg $ $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 Inventory Concerns Are Affecting Transactional Velocities. 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 1,000 $250,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: NWMLS Single Family Homes $200,000

Resale Transactions & Prices Bottom of the Market in 2009/2011 Surprising that Inventory Levels Did not Compress Sales Still Little New Construction Activity. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Seattle Condominium Units $380,000 Sales Avg $ $360,000 $340,000 $320,000 $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SOURCE: NWMLS Resale Condominium Housing $200,000

Sub-Market Analysis (2014) Seattle Single Family Home Price Growth 18% 16% 16.2% 15.5% Impressive Growth Rates. 14% 12% 10% 8% 13.4% 12.4% 11.2% 14.0% 6% 4% 2% 0% SOURCE: NWMLS

Sub-Market Analysis (2014) Seattle Multifamily Home Price Growth 0.2 18.0% Mount Baker Drop is a Function of No Sales (Or Inventory!) 0.15 0.1 0.05 0-0.05 10.5% Downtown Beacon Hill Capitol Hill/Madison Park 8.5% 8.5% 1.1% Queen Anne West Seattle Mt/ Baker/Seward Park -0.1-0.15-0.2-0.25 SOURCE: NWMLS Average Price Growth (2013 vs 2014). -19.0%

$750,000 Home Sale Prices Core Seattle Single Family Homes Home Values Overcorrected Wiping Out Almost 8 Years of Appreciation. Values are Up 62% Since Spring 2002, But That is an Annual Rate of Just 5%. $700,000 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Apr-02 Nov-02 Jun-03 Jan-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Oct-05 May-06 Dec-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 SOURCE: NWMLS & Gardner Economics

Q & A Gardner Economics LLC 2015 The Preceding Presentation may not be Copied or Distributed without Prior Written Permission of Gardner Economics LLC

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