Investors Day 2007 Corporates & Markets: A customer-focused business Nicholas Teller Member of the Board of Managing Directors Frankfurt, September 20th, 2007
Agenda 1. Figures H1 2007: A strong customer focused strategy 2. Current market environment 3. Outlook 2/ 21
Key figures Corporates & Markets H1 2007 Strongest performance since restructuring Revenues 1) in m post LLPs 430 416 383 344 431 478 +15% 846 909 +7.4% Sustainable earnings improvement Operating profit in m 180 169 163 113 +23.1% 174 209 349 383 +9.5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2006 2007 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2006 2007 2006 2007 Best ever operating ROE Strong cost discipline continues Operating RoE in % 30 29 29 21 32 37 29 35 CIR in % 57 58 62 68 58 55 57 56 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 1) Q1 2006 results including pro-forma integration of Eurohypo 3/ 21
Development of units Balanced growth Markets Corporates Operating profit 1) in m Operating profit 1) in m 221 235 103 118 78 51 84 +27.7% 151 +6.4% 77 51 85 147 128 90 62 57 +12.3% +14.8% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2006 2007 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 H1 H1 2006 2007 2006 2007 Best half-year result for both pillars in H1 2007 Well balanced business model 1) Q1 2006 results including pro-forma integration of Eurohypo 4/ 21
Markets Cautious build-up strategy after completion of restructuring has continued Costs (pre bonus) in m 361 285 2004 Restructuring Target ~ 270 284 263 Cost base has been reduced significantly Active cost management continues 1H04 1H05 1H06 1H07 Front Office Staff (full-time equivalents) 1.275 09/04 775 771 Avg 05 Avg 1H06 2004 Restructuring Target ~ 800 881 Avg 1H07 Disciplined build up of staff in selected business lines 1H07 figure includes 45 FTE from group internal transfer of business lines (Precious Metals, Structured Finance) Regulatory Capital 1) in m 1.021 745 2004 Restructuring Target ~ 723 660 612 Regulatory Capital has been actively managed down by reducing market risk and equity tied-up in subsidiaries and by increasing use of netting and offsetting agreements 09/04 Avg 05 Avg 1H06 Avg 1H07 1) At 6% Tier-I-ratio; 2004 and 2005 adjusted accordingly 5/ 21
Markets Continued strong growth of sales driven revenues Revenue composition (pre revenue split) in m +33% 504 +11% 559 378 +137% +7% 142 150 Strong and stable client business across all products 60 Sales & Origination 7 0 Client-driven Trading Other & Prop -7 1H05 1H06 1H07 Sales revenues by client 20% 16% Corporates 50% 47% 30% 37% Institutional Sales growing according to plan Institutionals Retail/Flow 1H06 1H07 6/ 21
Markets Consistently stable revenue generation Markets Daily revenues in m 1200 1000 800 600 400 Clear growth path since 2004 Increased steadiness since 2Q05 200 0 2004 2005 2006 2007YTD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Markets Gross profits and losses per trading day in m 200 150 100 50 0-50 -100 Closure of last prop trading desk (Special Situations) Gross Profits Gross Losses 2004 2005 2006 2007 Closure of proprietary trading activities led to significant reduction of loss days Last prop trading desk closed in 2Q05 Profit and loss profile consistent with customer-driven low-risk strategy 7/ 21
Markets Four initiatives from our customer driven strategy Equity Derivatives Build on market leading position in Germany Stay at the forefront of product innovation Don t compromise on systems / infrastructure Grow international sales franchise Expand market leading position Corporate Finance Build out advisory group for Mittelstandsbank s clients Complement product range with senior unsecured and bank capital solutions Broaden the Western European platform Leverage from Commerzbank s bigger footprint in the market Institutional Sales Widen product range with a focus on structured products across all asset classes Target (primarily German) regional banks and insurers Strengthen specialised institutional sales teams Strengthen the bank s presence in institutional business Credit Portfolio Management Establish active and centrally managed CPM Transfer Western European and Multinational loan books to CPM Centralise management of the bank s ABS books Improve efficiency of capital deployment 8/ 21
Markets Equity Derivatives expanding its market leading position Share of Markets revenues 1H07 Equity Derivatives Rest of Markets 40% Development 1H07 vs. 1H06 (1H06 = 100) Excellent performance continues market leader in Germany and among the Top 5 in Spain and Portugal The core businesses have continued to grow steadily and a stream of initiatives are ongoing to promote further growth The commodities business (started in 2006) has developed very well The Fund Derivatives business has performed particularly strongly fuelled by the great success of an innovative product range Technology is key and our platforms have proven extremely resilient during a phase of massive volume growth and trading days with extraordinary peaks in turnover Risk management systems and models are continuously updated to further improve hedging and capital efficiency +6% -17% Revenues 1H06 1H07 VaR 9/ 21
Markets Corporate Finance leveraging from Commerzbank s growing importance in Germany and Europe Share of Markets revenues 1H07 16% DCM & Securitisation Commerzbank continues to rank at the top of the syndicated loan league tables in Germany (No. 2 MLA) and is expanding its reach into Europe Corporate Finance Rest of Markets Development 1H07 vs. 1H06 (1H06 = 100) +37% Leveraged Finance The team ranks among the top three providers in Mid Cap LBO Financing It has successfully maintained its disciplined approach to new deals, protecting the high portfolio quality and syndication track record Structured Finance The Structured Finance team is well established with staff in Germany and the UK; the team has been transferred in 1H07 from the Mittelstandsbank to Corporates & Markets / Corporate Finance 1H06 1H07 Revenues ECM & M&A In 1H07, the team advised on and executed the highest number of public purchase offers ever; deals include: Porsche AG, Permira AG, Suzlon (India) 10 / 21
Markets Corporate Finance in prominent roles Equity Capital Markets ABS Bonds and Syndicated Loans Semper Finance 2007-1 Kapitalerhöhung ohne Bezugsrecht und Emission Wandelanleihe (Joint Lead Manager, Joint Bookrunner) March 2007 1,001,883,722 Lead Manager, Sole Bookrunner German CMBS June 2007 BNP Paribas 2,500,000,000 4.500% due May 2014 Bookrunner May 2007 EUR 35,000,000,000 Revolving Credit Facility MLA & Underwriter March 2007 CoSMO Finance 2007-1 Kapitalerhöhung ohne Bezugsrecht (Joint Lead Manager, Joint Bookrunner) March 2007 2,000,000,000 Sale Annanger, Lead Manager and Sole Bookrunner CLO of German SMEs July 2007 Linde Finance B.V. 1,000,000,000 4.375% due April 2012 1,000,000,000 4.750% due April 2017 Bookrunner April 2007 300,000,000 Syndicated Loan Facility MLA & Bookrunner June 2007 11 / 21
Markets Top League Table Positions for DCM (all by volume) German Syndicated Loans - MLA 2005 2006 1H07 4 8 2 German Corporate Bonds Bookrunner 1) 2005 2006 1H07 9 10 1 European Corporate Bonds Bookrunner 1) 2005 2006 1H07 18 20 13 German Pfandbriefe 2) 2005 2006 1H07 10 2 2 European Covered Bonds 2) 2005 2006 1H07 20 12 7 1) Source: Dealogic 2) Source: Bloomberg 12 / 21
Markets Institutional Sales picking up Share of sales revenues earned with Institutional clients 1H06 1H07 30% 37% Share Development 1H07 vs. 1H06 (1H06 = 100) +33% Growth initiative in institutional sales are starting to pay off Sales teams have been strengthened considerably In 1H07, very successful launch of vis vitalis Tailoring of product offering to institutionals needs ongoing Priority growth areas are Structured Products in Fixed Income and FX 1H06 1H07 Revenues 13 / 21
Markets Credit Portfolio Management CPM Structure Corporate Banking credit exposure CPM + Securitisation CDS, CDO, bonds, loans Synthetic Structuring Active Credit Portfolio Management (CPM) now centrally established, up and running and mastering turbulent markets diversification Securitisation Credit Portfolio Management has taken over global responsibility for ABS investments of Commerzbank Investment Banking Investment Books Secondary Market Mark-to-market based risk pricing approach for loans introduced in 01/2007 credit exposure + counterparty risk of derivatives 14 / 21
Corporates Strong revenue growth and well diversified business structure Revenues Western Europe and Johannesburg USA +42% +77% 37% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2* 2006 2007 32% 1H07 31% Multinational Corporates +22% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 2007 * Adjusted by 46m impairment for subprime exposure 15 / 21
Agenda 1. Figures H1 2007: A strong customer focused strategy 2. Current market environment 3. Outlook 16 / 21
Books directly or indirectly affected by subprime crisis Area (total size) Positions Comments Structured Investment Book NewYork Branch (Banking Book - 1.8bn) 750m CDO s on RMBS (of which 380m subprime related) Provided for in 2Q07 by 46m Credit Portfolio Management (Banking Book - 1.9bn) Highly rated ABS and CDO on ABS Unrealised mark to market losses from spread widening with negative impact on revaluation reserve Defaults highly unlikely, reversal of losses expected once markets return to normal No forced selling, positions to be held to maturity (average maturity 3.5 years) Credit Trading (Trading Book - 4.4bn) Covered bonds, Pfandbriefe, ABS Financials Mark to market losses from spread widening in 3Q07 have led to reversal of 1H07 gains in credit trading Defaults highly unlikely, reversal of losses expected once markets return to normal No forced selling 17 / 21
Credit markets turmoil has only limited further impact on other business areas Area (total size) Exposure Comments LBO Pipeline immaterial Pipeline: 64m in syndication Quality of existing book very high, cautious origination approach and active risk management, immaterial exposure to cov-light deals LBO book: 2.4bn; average ticket size: ca. 29m Equity Bridge Financing immaterial Corporates & Markets has actively avoided equity bridge financing Conduits (SPV, SIV) immaterial Kaiserplatz: 1bn German client receivables; rest: own securitized super senior AAA tranches; planned return of the already consolidated conduit volume to balance sheet in January 2008 due to abolition of Basle II effect Running of sponsored conduits or SIV s not part of our business model Liquidity lines immaterial 156m liquidity lines supporting 3rd party programmes 18 / 21
Underlying business only moderately affected by subprime crisis Markets: Daily revenues July and August Gross Profits Cumulative P/L Gross Losses Very strong July was followed by a weaker, but still revenue positive August Loss days in August primarily coming from credit spread related mark to market losses July August Markets: Performance by business line 162% AIS Local Markets Securities Finance Banknotes Interest Rates Trading 01-08/2007 01-08/2006 130% 124% 106% 105% 103% 101% 93% 63% 11% 103% Corporate Finance Equity Derivatives Cash Equities FX Trading Credit Trading Markets Underlying business has not been affected by subprime crisis Markets result in the first eight months 2007 better improved against same period in 2006 Reversal of 1H07 profits in Credit Trading primarily driven by mark to market losses on highly rated assets (ABS, CDO), no defaults expected 19 / 21
Agenda 1. Figures H1 2007: A strong customer focused strategy 2. Current market environment 3. Outlook 20 / 21
Outlook Value drivers ( m) 2006 H1 2007 2007p (vs. 2006) Value drivers: current figures and outlook 2010p Outlook Revenues incl. LLPs 1,573 909 Revenues: Further increase in Markets, only light increase in Corporates Costs 948 526 Strong cost discipline will continue Operating profit 625 382 Operating profit is budgeted to increase steadily Average equity 2,368 2,215 As of 01.01.2008 Basel II conversion with projected capital influence of approx. -9% to -20% Op. RoE 27.1% 34.6% 20% >20% 21 / 21
Disclaimer All presentations shown at Investors Day based on new group reporting as published per H1 2007. This presentation has been prepared and issued by Commerzbank AG. This publication is intended for professional and institutional investors only. Any information in this presentation is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Commerzbank AG and/or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates (herein described as Commerzbank Group) with regard to the accuracy of the data. This presentation also contains forward-looking statements that reflect our current views and expectations about future events. The words anticipate, assume, believe, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, project, should and similar expressions are used to identify forward-looking statements. These statements are based on plans, estimates and projections as they are currently available to the management of Commerzbank AG. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. By their very nature, forwardlooking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. This presentation is for information purposes; it is not intended to be and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of any of the securities or issues mentioned in this presentation. Commerzbank Group accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this presentation. Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from www.ir.commerzbank.com 22 / 21
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Notes 24 / 21