COMCEC ANKARA 19 DECEMBER

COMCEC ANKARA 19 DECEMBER INVESTMENT CONSULTING ASSOCIATES - ICA Amsterdam Belfast Boston Dubai Hyderabad Johannesburg Kuala Lumpur Mumbai Miami New York

CONTENTS Introduction Study Current State of Agriculture PART I Presented by Mr. Matthijs Weeink Mechanisms and Drivers of FDI Agricultural FDI Assessment Case studies PART II Presented by Mr. Charles Krakoff Recommendations and Q&A 1

INTRODUCTION TO STUDY 2

INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY Agriculture is one of the cooperation areas within COMCEC and of strategic importance for many COMCEC Member Countries: Food security Agricultural Employment Agricultural Trade Agricultural Productivity How can agricultural Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) be encouraged among COMCEC Member Countries to make sure that host economies benefit from the positive aspects and mitigate potentially negative risks as much as possible? 3

REPORT STRUCTURE This study examines the current agricultural state of the COMCEC Region and looks into the motives and drivers why corporate engage in FDI and more particular the agricultural FDI projects in COMCEC Member Countries with underlying facts and figures. Case studies and further estimates on potentials for agricultural FDI resulted in a list of policy measures and recommendations. 4

UNCTAD FDI DATA FDI DATA PRESENTED AS MONETARY FLOWS Foreign Direct investment (FDI) is investment made to acquire a lasting interest in or effective control over an enterprise operating outside of the economy of the investor. FDI net inflows are the value of inward direct investment made by non-resident investors in the reporting economy, including: Reinvested earnings and Intra-company loans, Net of repatriation of capital and Repayment of loans. 5

FIRM LEVEL FDI DATA Firm level data includes only those FDI projects that generate economic value (i.e. new jobs, invested capital expenditure in land, facilities, machinery, etc.) FDI project data consist of the following types of FDI projects: Greenfield Investment (a new operation) Brownfield Investment (expansions or re-investment in existing foreign affiliates or sites) New forms of Investment (joint ventures, strategic alliances, licensing and other partnership agreements), only when they lead to a new physical (Greenfield or Brownfield) operation 6

CURRENT STATE OF AGRICULTURE 7

PERCENTAGE OF THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN THE COMCEC, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, AND THE WORLD (2012, PERCENT) 100 90 80 70 60 46,3 45,8 50,4 50 40 Urban Rural 30 20 10 53,7 54,2 49,6 0 Source: SESRIC, 2013 COMCEC Countries Developing Countries World 8

SIZE OF THE AGRICULTURAL POPULATION IN 2000 AND 2010 50% 45% 49,0 40% 42,3-14% 43,9 42,2 2000 2010 35% 36,2 38,0 30% COMCEC Member Countries Developing countries World Source: SESRIC, 2013. - Largest decline in agricultural population in the COMCEC Member Countries 9

AGRICULTURAL LAND USE IN 2012 Total Land Area Agricultural area Arable Land Permanent Crops Permanent Pasture Countries Million Hectare Million Hectare % of Land Area Million hectare % of agricultural area Million hectare % of agricultural area Million hectare % of agricultural area COMCEC Developing 3,129 1,392 44.5 293 20.7 55.2 3.8 1,043 75.7 9,767 4,160 38.6 942 27.1 118 3.4 3,091 69.6 World 13,003 4,911 37.6 1396 28.3 153 3.1 3,358 68.7 Source: Author s own calculations using FAOSTAT 2013 - Comparative advantage in Permanent Pasture - Relatively low amount of arable land 10

AVAILABLE WATER RESOURCES Region Agricultural land Average Precipitation in depth (mm/yr) IRWR (km3/yr) ERWR (km3/yr) TRWR (km3/yr) TRWR / Capita (m3/yr) Dependency Ratio (%) COMCEC 1,415 48,471 5,378 2,487 7,865 4,759 32% World 4,889 207,574 42,370 12,004 54,374 7,974 22% COMCEC as % of World 28.9 23.4 12.7 20.7 14.5 - Acute shortage of Internal Renewable Water Resources, low Total Renewable Water Resources and relatively high Dependency Ration (i.e. high reliability on External Renewable Water Resources) 11

TOP 10 COUNTRIES WITH LOWEST TRWR COMCEC Member Country TRWR (m 3 /capita/year) Kuwait 7.09 United Arab Emirates 19.0 Qatar 31.0 Yemen 84.7 Saudi Arabia 85.5 Bahrain 87.6 Maldives 93.85 Libya 109.0 Palestine 201.6 Algeria 324.3 Source: FAO. 2013. AQUASTAT database, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 12

IRRIGATION TECHNIQUES 2,989 (5%) 1,568 (2%) surface irrigation (1000 ha) Surface irrigation 61,570 (93%) sprinkler irrigation (1000 ha) localized irrigation (1000 ha) Localized irrigation Sprinkler irrigation 13

KGs / Hectare FERTILIZER USE PER HECTARE OF ARABLE LAND (2000-2011) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 COMCEC Member Countries Developing Countries World 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - Gap between COMCEC Member Countries and the Developing Countries as well as the rest of the world is widening 14

Production per heactare (tons) PRODUCTIVITY PER HECTARE (2000 2012) 4 3,5 COMCEC Member Countries World 3 2,5 2 1,5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 15

Billion US Dollars % AGRICULTURAL GDP BY COMCEC SUB-REGIONS (1990-2011) 700 70 600 500 Asian Group (left) Arab Group (left) African Group (left) 60 50 400 300 Asian Group (right) African Group (right) Arab Group (right) 40 30 200 20 100 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0 Source: COMCEC Agriculture Outlook 2013; FAO Online database, 2013. 16

COMCEC MEMBER COUNTRIES AMONG THE WORLD TOP 20 PRODUCERS PER COMMODITY (2010) Commodities Cocoa Coffee Cotton Maize Natural Rubber Palm Oil Rice Soybean Sugar Beet Tea Wheat Afghanistan 20 Bangladesh 4 11 Burkina Faso 14 Cameroon 6 14 13 Cote d'ivoire 1 11 8 8 Egypt 12 13 12 15 Gabon 20 Guinea 17 19 Indonesia 2 4 8 2 1 3 10 7 Iran 18 14 10 14 Kazakhstan 18 10 Malaysia 13 3 2 Mozambique 20 18 Nigeria 4 13 10 9 3 18 11 Pakistan 4 18 12 6 Sierra Leona 16 Syria 8 Tajikistan 17 Turkey 7 12 6 5 8 Uganda 19 12 13 Uzbekistan 6 18 Source: SESRIC. 17

AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE IN THE COMCEC SUB-REGIONS (2012) 200 150 Export (in bn USD) 159,9 Import (in bn USD) 112,1 100 Trade Balance (in bn USD) 82,4 82,9 63,9 50 0-50 -100 11,5 13,5 17,7 19,0-2 African Group Arab Group Asian Group OIC -64,7-47,8 18

PERCENTAGE POPULATION UNDERNOURISHED WORLD MAP INVESTMENTS ARE NEEDED TO INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS AND REDUCE THE PERCENTAGE OF UNDERNOURISHED POPULATION 19

MECHANISMS AND DRIVERS OF FDI 20

INTERNAL CRITERIA SHAPING FDI DECISIONS Internationalization is strategic Eat or be eaten Only a few players will survive We have to internationalize or die Our competitors are already doing it All bets are off tomorrow We have to take positions now Foreign competitors are entering our home market We need to be international from the start It is key to have global access to clients Our home market is saturated We need to be where the market is Bigger is better Source: From Local Champions to Global Masters 2001 by Paul Verdin and Nick van Heck Our home market is too small There are only a few interesting targets left It is too risky to depend on the home market alone We are just following our clients they are international 21

STRUCTURING FDI DRIVERS Market seeking Resource seeking Efficiency seeking Strategic-asset seeking following customers, suppliers or competitors abroad Raw materials, Energy sources Exploiting different factor endowments Supply chain optimization Enhancing synergies (i.e. technology, marketing channels and management expertise Companies take risk but evaluate alternative investment locations to optimize their return on investment 22

Depth of involvement in foreign markets LIST WITH INTERNATIONALIZATION MODES WHERE TRADE MEETS FDI Export Licensing/Franchising Foreign Direct Investment Joint venture/alliances Cross border M&A Greenfield FDI High Low Export Greenfield FDI Cross border M&A JV / Alliance Licensing / franchising Low Investment volume High 23

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF DIFFERENT MODES OF FDI Cross-Border Merger & Acquisition as FDI Mode Mode (including definition) Advantages Disadvantages Cross-border M&A To establish a wholly owned affiliate by acquiring (or merging with) an existing firm in a foreign market Quick access to the market Benefit from existing clients and sales channels Difficult to find the right target Possible governmental intervention / politics Management challenge high risk of conflicts Cross-Border Greenfield FD as FDI Mode Mode (including definition) Advantages Disadvantages Greenfield FDI: To establish from scratch an operation entirely, in a foreign country Full ownership and control Strong signal to customers and other stakeholders Incentive potential Circumvent duties and customers Significant investment costs Requires time, resources and knowledge about local market Management control foreign operations 24

UNDERSTANDING THE CORPORATE INVESTMENT PROCESS Strategic Assessment Implementation Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Project assumptions Input cost model Define project and goals Business requirements Location Screening, modeling & benchmarking Cost comparison Community Evaluations Resources for site visits Define real estate objectives and accommodation needs Client Project definition & understanding of strategy Analysis and comparison of locations Comparison of costs Site visits Real estate support Determine geographic scope Selection of location factors Weighting location criteria Data gathering Build model for location analysis Present rankings of locations Sensitivity analysis Exploration of incentives Set up cost model Cost differentials between locations Prepare site visits Prepare discussions with relevant governments and service providers Incentive negotiations Real estate transaction and acquisition support Consultant 25

Domestic Market Growth Potential Regulations or business climate Natural Resources Proximity to markets or customers Infrastructure and logistics Lower Costs Skilled workforce availability Presence of Suppliers or JV IPA or Govt support Finance Incentives or Taxes or Funding Other Motive TOP LOCATION DETERMINANTS: PERCENTAGE OF PROJECTS CITING INVESTMENT MOTIVE 44,4 25,9 20,4 18,5 13 11,1 7,4 5,5 3,7 3,7 3,7 Source: fdi Intelligence from The Financial Times Ltd, Sample: 58 projects. 26

LOCATION FACTORS USED TO EVALUATE DIFFERENT INVESTMENT ALTERNATIVES FDI determinant Site selection consideration Cost factors Quality factors Economic conditions Labour Labour Potential to recruit local staff Flexibility of labour environment Infrastructure Electricity Power supply Water Water supply Telecommunications and broadband Telecommunications and Internet Internet Availability and reliability of shipping transportation Natural gas Freight shipment Real estate Real estate Availability of land, office space, building and sites Construction Office space Living conditions None Schools, safety, healthcare, etc. Access to markets None Size of local market Proximity to raw materials, components and equipment Host country policies Macro policies None Access to foreign exchange Legal and regulatory framework Private sector Cost of finance Clear, stable and predictable policies Efficient financial markets Trade and industry Import duties Openness of economy to trade Export duties Regional integration and access to markets FDI policies None Ease of entry Restrictions on land ownership Investment protection and incentives Transparent and stable policies Investor strategies Business environment None Political, financial and economic stability 27

BREAKDOWN OF COST (LEFT) AND QUALITY (RIGHT) MOTIVATIONS FOR FOOD & BEVERAGE FDI Prioritized Cost factors Prioritized Quality factors Source: MIGA 2007 28

ROLE OF INCENTIVES IN ATTRACTING FDI Orthodox: Incentives have little or no effect on investment decisions and their location; Traditional: It s all about the incentives. They are the key driver behind investments; and Mixed: Incentives do matter, but it very much depends on situation, type and structure. 29

WHY ARE THEY PROVIDED? To overcome a competitive weakness such as high costs or weak business climate (so-called site equalization outlays); To promote investment in deprived areas by offering incentives in poorer areas; To attract particular industries by offering them incentives to invest; To correct for market failures in the provision of capital and risk-taking of companies; and To change the image of a location to make it pro-business. 30

IMPORTANCE OF SOFT FACTORS How Many Stops in a One-Stop Shop? In seeking to establish a one-stop shop, first instincts are often to bring together representatives of different government agencies into one place. This is often described as the one door or one roof approach. If, on going through the one door, the customer finds not several counters, but just one (or several, of which he can go to any one), this is a different type of organization: a one window or one table approach. Online facilitation (in English) 31

POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL FDI Source: Suleman (2009) 32

SUITABILITY BASED IN INPUT FACTORS Labour Force (2012, percent) Arable Land (2012, percent) Total Renewable Water Resources (km3/year, 2012) 33

ABILITY - COMCEC MEMBER STATE RANKINGS IN 2013 WORLD BANK DOING BUSINESS INDICATORS Lowest Tier (rank) Middle Tier (rank) Upper Tier (rank) Indonesia 128 Azerbaijan 67 Malaysia 12 Nigeria 131 Kyrgyzstan 70 Saudi Arabia 22 Bangladesh 132 Turkey 71 UAE 26 Palestine 135 Brunei 79 Qatar 40 Sierra Leone 140 Kuwait 82 Bahrain 42 Tajikistan 141 Albania 85 Kazakhstan 49 Sudan 143 Maldives 95 Oman 50 Syria 144 Morocco 97 Tunisia 50 Iran 145 Jordan 106 Mozambique 146 Pakistan 107 Gambia 147 Egypt 109 *Somalia: not ranked Mali 151 Guyana 113 * Libya: not ranked Algeria 152 Lebanon 115 * Turkmenistan: not ranked Burkina Faso 153 Yemen 118 Uzbekistan 154 Uganda 120 Togo 156 Comoros 158 Cameroon 162 Djibouti 171 Guinea-Bissau 179 Suriname 165 Iraq 171 Chad 184 Senegal 166 Benin 175 Mauritania 167 Niger 176 Afghanistan 168 Côte d Ivoire 177 Gabon 170 Guinea 178 34

DIFFERENT NEED FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF FDI AMONG COMCEC MEMBER COUNTRIES Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Process Driven FDI Increase Primary Productivity Capital Driven FDI Increase Value addition R&D Driven FDI Knowledge addition Stage I Low Income Dependent position Stage II Medium Income Self sufficient Stage III High Income Independent position Domestic production & Necessary Imports Domestic production & Import substitution production International Trade Domestic production & Sufficient Import and/or Global Export Production 35

AGRICULTURAL FDI ASSESSMENT 36

SCOPE AND SAMPLE OF OUR AGRICULTURAL FDI ASSESSMENT Agricultural Main Sectors and related Sub-Sectors Animal production (main sector) Animal slaughtering & processing (sub-sector) Dairy products (sub-sector) Crop production (main sector) Animal husbandry (sub-sector) Plant production (sub-sector) Other agricultural sub-sectors included in this analysis Lime & gypsum products Grains & oilseed Coffee & tea Leather & hide tanning and finishing Grains & oilseed Food services Food (all other) Seafood products Medicinal & botanical Other (Beverages) Other rubber products Pesticide Fertilizers & other agricultural chemicals Fruits & vegetables & specialist foods Sugar & confectionary products Tobacco Wood products 37

EXAMPLE OF AN AGRICULTURAL FDI PROJECT Example of a landmark FDI deal in Cameroon Biopalm Energy subsidiary of Siva Group into Cameroon In line with the objective of diversifying into high-growth sectors, SIVA Group s foray into large-scale agriculture viz., oil palm plantations through its associate Biopalm Energy, has seen substantial progress within the first two years of inception. In August 2011 Biopalm Energy (India) invested $1,907.24 million in Cameroon in the food & tobacco sector in a manufacturing project. The company is planning to establish a 200,000 hectare palm oil plantation in the south of Cameroon, as part of a joint venture with the National Investment Corporation of Cameroon. The 1.9bn investment is expected to yield 80,000 tonnes of palm oil within its first five years of production. - Sub sector: Crop production - FDI Project type: New / Greenfield from India into Cameroon Biopalm Energy has been focusing on developing green-field oil palm projects and acquiring existing palm plantations in Africa [mainly Liberia, Sierra Leone, Côte d'ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cameroon and Mozambique], Asia [Indonesia and Papua New Guinea] and South America. Further information on their Website: www.svl.co.in 38

WHAT ARE THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GAINS BY AGRICULTURAL FDI? Headline Number of FDI projects 371 Total jobs created 115,910 Average project size (jobs) 312 Total capital investment Average project size USD 45.2 billion USD 121 million Share of Global projects 0.3% 39

NUMBER OF AGRICULTURAL FDI PROJECTS BY YEAR AND DESTINATION WORLD REGION 2012 14 22 1 1 4 2 2011 20 13 7 2 3 6 2010 13 14 6 2 2 1 2009 20 14 2 5 4 1 2008 20 14 4 5 3 2 2007 14 9 2 2 1 1 2006 13 7 5 2 1 1 2005 10 5 2 3 2 3 2004 11 3 3 1 4 2003 10 11 4 7 1 6 Western Europe Asia-Pacific North America Middle East Africa Other source world regions Source: fdi Intelligence from The Financial Times Ltd 40

WHERE ARE ALL AGRICULTURAL FDI INVESTMENTS IN COMCEC MEMBER COUNTRIES COMING FROM? Source world region No of projects Jobs Created Total Average Capital investment Total (USD) m) Average (USD) m) Western Europe 145 29,647 204 9,101.40 62.80 Asia-Pacific 112 51,240 457 21,235.90 189.60 North America 36 11,448 318 2,687.70 74.70 Middle East 30 11,430 381 6,457.10 215.20 Africa 21 8,925 425 3,631.40 172.90 Rest of Europe 21 2,237 106 1,458.00 69.40 Latin America & Caribbean 6 983 163 631.40 105.20 Total 371 115,910 312 45,202.90 121.80 Source country No of projects Switzerland 34 United States 33 India 31 France 30 UK 23 Saudi Arabia 20 Singapore 18 Malaysia 15 Spain 14 Japan 12 Other source countries 141 Total 371 41

TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL FDI IN THE COMCEC REGION Year Number of projects Capital investment Jobs created Total(USD m) Average(USD m) Total Average 2012 44 3,887.40 88.40 17,530 398 2011 51 9,654.70 189.30 20,708 406 2010 38 3,761.30 99.00 12,979 341 2009 46 5,863.40 127.50 12,471 271 2008 48 7,548.30 157.30 20,225 421 2007 29 2,891.00 99.70 6,040 208 2006 29 4,938.60 170.30 11,075 381 2005 25 1,978.90 79.20 4,917 196 2004 22 2,472.10 112.40 4,796 218 2003 39 2,207.10 56.60 5,169 132 Total 371 45,202.90 121.80 115,910 312 42

AGRICULTURAL FDI TRENDS BY DESTINATION WORLD REGION Destination World Region No of projects Jobs Created Total Average Capital Investment Total (USD m) Average (USD m) Asia-Pacific 152 38,756 254 12,408.70 81.60 Africa 129 57,101 442 19,534.70 151.40 Middle East 56 12,740 227 9,127.40 163.00 Rest of Europe 33 7,043 213 4,091.20 124.00 Latin America & Caribbean 1 270 270 40.90 40.90 Total 371 115,910 312 45,202.90 121.80 Source: fdi Intelligence from The Financial Times Ltd 43

AGRICULTURAL FDI PROJECTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY Jobs Created Capital investment Destination country No of projects No of companies Total Average Total (USD m) Average (USD m) Indonesia 68 55 20,277 298 6,776.70 99.70 Malaysia 50 41 9,561 191 2,304.70 46.10 Turkey 30 27 6,805 226 4,033.20 134.40 Nigeria 22 18 9,183 417 3,227.20 146.70 UAE 21 16 7,600 361 3,282.20 156.30 Egypt 21 20 4,314 205 1,921.70 91.50 Morocco 15 14 3,869 257 1,348.30 89.90 Mozambique 13 13 6,984 537 2,781.10 213.90 Uganda 10 7 2,664 266 594.40 59.40 Côte d'ivoire (Ivory Coast) 10 10 1,870 187 351.70 35.20 Other destination countries 111 102 42,783 385 18,581.70 167.40 Total 371 279 115,910 312 45,202.90 121.80 Source: fdi Intelligence from The Financial Times Ltd 44

CASE STUDIES 45

GCC COUNTRIES: INVESTING IN FOOD SECURITY GCC Food Consumption, Total and Per Capita 46

GCC COUNTRIES: INVESTING IN FOOD SECURITY Saudi Arabia s Imports of Selected Commodities as a Percentage of World Imports 2008 47

GCC COUNTRIES: INVESTING IN FOOD SECURITY Sample of Outward Agricultural Investments by GCC Countries 48

GCC COUNTRIES: INVESTING IN FOOD SECURITY Why do GCC Countries Risk Investing Instead of Relying on Trade? Scant risk of not being able to meet need on international markets Political and commercial risks of FDI in volatile countries Target countries vulnerable to climate change The 2008 Food Crisis Heightened Sense of Vulnerability Wheat prices doubled from Jan.-Mar. 2008; Rice prices nearly tripled Several exporting countries imposed export bans Demand for bio-fuels increased demand for agricultural land worldwide So GCC Countries Will Continue Outward Agricultural FDI Mitigating risks by selling a substantial portion of crops locally Reducing risks by diversifying pool of target countries They will remain a prime source of agricultural FDI in other OIC countries 49

TURKEY: AN IMPORTANT FDI DESTINATION Turkey is one of the most suitable countries to receive agricultural FDI: limited land availability but excellent investment environment 50

TURKEY: AN IMPORTANT FDI DESTINATION Food and beverage processing, agricultural R&D, and alternative energy identified as industries with the potential to become centers of excellence within the next 30 years Government in February 2011 approved the country s first agriculture technopark in Mersin Monsanto has set up several R&D centers in Turkey $23.7 bn Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP) in SE Anatolia FDI in the agriculture sector in Turkey has grown from about $14m in 2002 to more than $2.1bn in 2012 With more than 54,000 ha. in greenhouse production, Turkey is world s 4 th largest fresh vegetable exporter Government goal of doubling agricultural production to $150bn and increasing exports to $40bn in next 10 years, making Turkey 1 of world s top 5 agricultural producers 51

TURKEY: AN IMPORTANT FDI DESTINATION SWOT Analysis of Turkey s Agriculture Sector 52

ETHIOPIA: RISKY AND CHALLENGING Sectoral Contribution to Growth for Selected Countries 53

ETHIOPIA: RISKY AND CHALLENGING Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) is a linchpin of the government s overall development strategy, which aims for Ethiopia to achieve middle-income status by 2020 To accomplish this, the Government has budgeted some USD16.6 billion over the 2010-2020 period 60% expected to come from Government and 40% from donors. FDI also expected to contribute substantially, especially in raising domestic value added through agro-processing, increased production yields, and better post-harvest handling, storage, and logistics 54

ETHIOPIA: RISKY AND CHALLENGING Top 10 Business Environment Constraints in Ethiopia 55

ETHIOPIA: RISKY AND CHALLENGING Agriculture Sector FDI in Ethiopia, 2000-2008 (million US$) 56

ETHIOPIA: RISKY AND CHALLENGING Many sources of FDI Netherlands, India, Denmark, GCC countries, But Saud Arabia is by far the largest. Saudi Star: $2.5 bn, 290,000 ha. rice project in Gambella Karuturi (India): leased 312,000 ha., also in Gambella, and announced plans to invest up to $4 billion to produce palm oil, sugar and rice 57

ETHIOPIA: RISKY AND CHALLENGING The positive: Sharp increase in agriculture value added, from US$5.28 billion in 2005 to US$13.6 billion in 2009 Transmission mechanisms necessary to generate economic growth caused by FDI inflows are in place The negative: Weak regulatory framework and recent emphasis on maximizing FDI inflows, leading to heightened tensions over land and water resources Some highly publicized disputes between investors and government and revocation of some leases by government Alleged abuses with respect to seizure of land, inadequate compensation, and botched relocations of local populations Constant risk of water shortages 58

ETHIOPIA: RISKY AND CHALLENGING Conclusions: Ambitious investment objectives must not be allowed to outrun a government s capacity to oversee and regulate such investments, especially in the agriculture sector, where environmental and social vulnerability is especially acute Ethiopia may lose some FDI as a result of new policies limiting the pace of development and the size of land concessions/leases Revocation of some leases damaged Ethiopia s reputation 59

OVERALL CONCLUSIONS FROM CASE STUDIES Need for good land use planning, aligning interests of communities and investors in a way consistent with sustainable resource use Both formal and customary land use and occupancy rights must be respected by investors and host country governments Local communities must share in benefits from public infrastructure investment, community investments, and equitable employment, and/or outgrower schemes. Preference for outgrower and smallholder cultivation over large-scale mechanized agriculture Rigorous economic analysis of land-related investments is essential Allow direct negotiation between communities and investors Tax idle land and set appropriate lease payments. 60

RECOMMENDATIONS AND Q&A 61

MAIN CONCLUSIONS Agricultural productivity levels are relatively low in the COMCEC Region room for improvement in terms of using fertilizers as well as machinery; Increased levels of FDI are possibly a solution, but not necessarily all depends on the regulatory framework; There is certainly potential (suitability and ability) among COMCEC Member Countries but focus must be on improving business and investment climate; Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, as well as other GCC States, but also Switzerland, US and India are important sources for FDI in other COMCEC Member Countries. 62

POLICY MEASURES There are several policy measures that can reduce and mitigate the risks of agricultural FDI, both for the investor and for the host country: Proper land use planning and respect for property rights; Preference for outgrower and smallholder cultivation through stimulation programs by public bodies and international aid programs; FDI attraction programs should be focusing on large scale agricultural investors; Host-country governments should assess the economic viability and sustainability of proposed investment projects, and should allow direct negotiation between communities and potential investors; Taxation of idle land and establishment of an appropriate level of lease payments, to make it financially unfeasible for investors to maintain fallow land for extended periods. 63

FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS (1/2) Based on the findings and conclusions we propose 5 distinct fields of policy intervention and cooperation at COMCEC level: 1. Improve the investment climate of COMCEC Member Countries by identifying and promoting specific agricultural investment opportunities in each COMCEC Member Country; 2. Based on the agricultural FDI assessment, prepare an investment promotion strategy and targeting plan, including a lead generation plan; 3. As a final step, prepare appealing Value Propositions in coordination with the national IPA s, to illustrate the potential and profitability of investing in the agricultural sector; 64

FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS (2/2) 4. Start working on a Media and Communications Strategy to disseminate the value propositions to the right audience; 5. Identify and list relevant public stakeholders as well as private investors in the COMCEC Region and use the COMCEC platform to stimulate debate and information sharing; 65

Your Questions Please 66

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