Beyond BRIC: Winning the Rising Auto Markets Press briefing. Detroit, October 22, 2013 Embargoed until noon EDT today

Transcription

1 Beyond BRIC: Winning the Rising Auto Markets Press briefing Detroit, October 22, 2013 Embargoed until noon EDT today

2 Welcome to BCG Today's speakers Dr. Nikolaus Lang Marco Gerrits Senior Partner Global leader of BCG's Automotive p practice and Managing Director of BCG's Detroit office Senior Partner Lead author of Beyond BRIC: Winning g the Rising Auto Markets and previous BRIC studies Partner Leader of BCG's Automotive practice in China and coauthor p of Beyond BRIC: Winning the Rising Auto Markets BCG Detroit mosquet.xavier@bcg.com BCG Munich lang.nikolaus@bcg.com BCG Beijing gerrits.marco@bcg.com 1 3 by The Boston Consultin ng Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Xavier Mosquet

3 Beyond BRIC: Winning the Rising Auto Markets is the fourth report in our series Winning the Localization Game "Winning the Localization Game" "Winning the BRIC Auto Markets" "Winning the BRIC Truck Battle" "Winning the Rising Auto Markets" Launched in 2008 Launched in 2010 Launched in 2012 Launches today Source: BCG Version in Chinese A tradition of unique insights into the challenges and opportunities of globalization Chinese version also available 2 by The Boston Consultin ng Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

4 Beyond BRIC markets are projected to have strong growth and are already almost the size of China USA, Canada +2% Russia EU 1 China +4% +6% +2% '12 '20 Brazil 4 '12 +5% 5 '20 '12 '20 Beyond BRIC +5-6% EU 27 and candidate countries, Norway and Switzerland Note: Sales figures reflect sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing < 3.5 tons, according to IHS segmentation; only markets projected to have new-vehicle sales > 10K units by 2020 were considered Source: IHS Automotive, January 2013; Polk; BCG analysis '12 '20 '12 '20 India +10% 7 3 '10 '20 '12 '20 Japan, ANZ -1% 6 6 '12 '20 New vehicle sales (in M units) z% CAGR '12 '20 3

5 Beyond BRIC consists of 88 markets with new-vehicle sales that are projected to exceed 10,000 units by 2020 New-vehicle sales,2020 (in millions of units) Indonesia South Korea Iran Thailand Mexico Turkey Ukraine Taiwan Saudi Arabia Argentina South Africa Malaysia Colombia Algeria Chile > 1.000K Pakistan Ecuador Panama 0.1 Belarus Botswana Jordan New-vehicle sales, 2020 (in units) 400K K Rwanda 200K 400K 100K 200K <100K St. Lucia Armenia Niger Haiti Swaziland Belize "Future 15" Markets > 10K sales p.a. Markets < 10K sales p.a. 71% 28% 1% 15 markets Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America Africa Note: New vehicles include only light vehicles < 3.5 tons; Triad and BRIC markets are not displayed on map Source: IHS Automotive, January 2013; Polk; BCG analysis 88 markets Rank of market 4

6 The Future 15 : Of the 15 largest Beyond BRIC markets, Indonesia is expected to have the biggest in 2020 New-vehicle sales per market (in thousands of units) ,000 1,500 1,738 1, ,539 1, ,355 -sales 2020 vs Sales 2012 non-top 3 OEMs Sales 2012 share of top 3 OEMs 1,091 1,078 1, Indonesia 1,310 South Korea Iran Thailand Note: New vehicles include only light vehicles < 3.5 tons Source: IHS Automotive, January 2013; Polk; BCG analysis Mexico Turkey Saudi Arabia Argentina South Africa MalaysiaColombia Algeria Ukraine Taiwan Chile 5

7 Beyond BRIC markets even the Future 15 are of subscale size, making a regional approach necessary Even the "Future 15" are substantially smaller than BRIC markets Need to build regional clusters based on... Sales CAGR in % Beyond BRIC markets incl. "Future 15" Yearly new-vehicle sales 3 to 350 times bigger A Regional location Geographic proximity of markets Ukraine Colombia South Indonesia Africa Malaysia Algeria Turkey Chile Taiwan Saudi A. 0.0 "Future 15" 0.5 Argentina Mexico Iran Thailand South Korea Other Beyond BRIC with > 10K sales Russia India Brazil BRIC China China New-car sales, 2020 (in M units) Note: New vehicles include only light vehicles < 3.5 tons; only markets projected to have new-vehicle sales > 10K units by 2020 were considered Source: IHS Automotive, January 2013; Polk; BCG analysis BRIC B C Existing relations Cultural and social aspects Existing trade agreements Maturity of car market GDP and car density Current production footprint 6

8 Report identifies four strategic regional clusters The four most promising Beyond BRIC regional clusters The ASEAN nations will be the biggest cluster 4.6% 1 4.7% The ASEAN Nations The Emerging Mideast North-African Belt Iran % % w/o Iran The ASEAN Nations The Emerging Mideast The Andeans North- African Belt The Andeans New-car sales 2020 New-car sales 2012 % CAGR Includes Iran Note: New vehicles include only light vehicles < 3.5 tons; only markets projected to have new-vehicle sales > 10K units by 2020 were considered Source: IHS Automotive, January 2013; Polk; EIU; BCG analysis 7

9 Key success factors for each of the four strategic clusters differ along the value chain The ASEAN Nations The Emerging Mideast The Andeans The North African Belt Product R&D Customer preferences differ across countries e.g., MPVs in Indonesia, Sedans in Malaysia Customer Rather True budget car preferences differ homogeneous key to leverage across countries customer potential e.g., e.g., < 1.6l car in demand, only Dacia, Hyundai Turkey, SUVs in Chile SUV/PUP Accent in Egypt Saudi Arabia market Sourcing Production Sales After-sales Source: BCG analysis Local sourcing key to optimize cost base Cross-ASEAN production network key Local partnerships key Competitive financing products key Localization not a must however, Turkey has potential to become a hub for the Mideast Establish high-quality dealerships and train sales personnel Relevance for regional success: High Medium Low Major production hubs in Argentina and nearby in Mexico and Brazil Morocco the new potential sourcing production location Flexible financing i Lean outlets t increasingly needed to support important distribution of budget cars 8

10 Regional deep-dive in ASEAN Nations: Locally adapted vehicle is key Indonesia: Avanza Japan: Sienta 1. Daihatsu Xenia as sister model Note: $1 = IDR9,709; $1 = 95 Source: BCG expert interviews; publications; BCG analysis Almost same size, = seven seats Ground clearance 190 mm versus 140 mm Design Flat-panel design for low cost versus dynamic/round shape Perceived quality Hard plastic trim versus soft-touch paint on trim Equipment level Manual A/C versus full auto A/C 5 MT/4 AT versus CVT No window defogger versus rear window defogger Seat arrangement Simple seat arrangement versus flexible seat arrangement Price $11, , versus $16,600 20,700 9

11 Regional deep-dive in the Emerging Mideast: Customers can save up to 50% in taxes with the right car Fiat Doblo is one of the most popular vehicles in Turkey also because it saves customers up to 50% in taxes Indicative comparison of PC > 2,000 cc and CDV < 1,600 cc, indexed -50% Doblo sales in Turkey in units Sold Doblos in K units and market share Position in sales ranking % 1. Special consumption tax; 2. For Fiat Doblo combi version with >2 seats Note: New vehicles include only light vehicles < 3.5 tons Source: IHS Automotive, January 2013; company information; BCG interviews; BCG analysis % % 100 Base price Vehicle specs SCT 1 Price 2.0L PC SCT adj. 162 Price 1.6L PC SCT adj Price 1.6L CDV > 2,000 cc < 1,600 cc < 1,600 cc PC PC CDV "Tax incentives are part of the Fiat Doblo success story." Regional manager, international OEM 10

12 Regional deep-dive in the Andeans: Alternative financing is a key differentiator The ChevyPlan is used as a sales and marketing tool by Chevrolet with benefits for both the customer and the OEM Customer + Low cash flow necessity + Chevrolet (OEM) Enhancement of sales ChevyPlan exists in Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador 1. Based on Chevrolet Sail example: $ savings on $ (figures in Colombian Peso) Source: Company information and publications, BCG analysis The customer can save up to 18% 1 on the total car payment and does not need a down payment + No personal credit rating + needed Only a registration fee, but no down payment is required Acquisition of a new-customer base that otherwise would not have purchased acar Predictability of cash flows Stable cash inflow from monthly contributions ChevyPlan accounts for 12% of total Chevrolet Colombia sales 11

13 Regional deep-dive in the North African Belt: Africa's largest production site in 2015 Africa's largest production site Capacity expansion up to 60 cars/h in 2015 Production 400K cars p.a., in 2015 Plant layout and utilization in phase I and II Jobs 6K direct employment 30K + indirect employment Characteristics acte cs + Low-cost advantage + Modern and efficient "zero-emission" plant + Direct connection to Tangier Med port 1 Investment Total investment: ~ 1B Location Site Strategy ~ 44 km to Europe ~ 30 km to Tangier Med port ha area 5 main complexes Mainly export to Europe Serve African market Full-vehicle-production plant to start with 2 models Stamping Body Paint Trim shop shop shop shop 1. Connected by rail line Source: Company information; publications; BCG interviews; BCG analysis Lodgy Dokker Phase I: Phase II: Nissan 30 cars /h 60 cars/h reserve Ramp-up until 2015 Units manufactured for of Renault group in Morocco in k units Ramp-up of production (in K units) 2011 ~ Phase I ~ Phase II ~ Renault Tangier 12

14 Beyond BRIC regions have diverse competitive landscapes The ASEAN Nations in hands of Japanese OEMs The Emerging Mideast led by Toyota and Kia The Andeans dominated by Chevrolet The North African Belt the French OEM's outpost Estimation of new-vehicle sales units (in K) in 2012 per brand % 1, % % % 236 8% % 195 9% % eserved Market share 8% 7% 7% % 200 5% 8% 1. Incl. Lexus Note: New vehicles include only light vehicles < 3.5 tons Source: IHS Automotive, January 2013; company information; BCG interviews; BCG analysis 185 8% % 6% % 79 10% 55 7% by The Boston Consultin ng Group, Inc. All rights r 13

15 Key takeaways for automotive companies The Beyond BRIC markets represent the last frontier for automotive industry growth. Markets will account for one-fifth of global new-vehicle sales through 2020 The subscale size of many Beyond BRIC markets makes a stringent regional approach necessary. Four regional clusters should be on the growth list of every OEM and supplier. The ASEAN Nations The Emerging Mideast The Andean Nations The North African Belt Succeeding in the Beyond BRIC markets is far more than winning a simple game. OEMs must identify the right product portfolios Supply chain and production operations need to span national boundaries OEMs must drive excellence throughout their dealer networks Beyond BRIC markets are not really untapped! In many regions there are already very sophisticated t and successful players. Contenders need to understand d their strategies. t 14

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