Flood early warning systems improve preparedness
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1 Flood early warning systems improve preparedness March 31, 2015 Ad Jeuken, Simone van Schijndel Deltares
2 Content Early warning systems Delft FEWS Purpose, characteristics Elements Example application Benefits
3 Flood Risk Management Structural vs Non-Structural approach Traditional approach to flood risk management structural measures State-of-the-art more holistic approach, considering both structural and non-structrural approaches UN ISDR Guidelines for the reduction of flood losses The operation of a flood warning and response system is the Flood most forecasting effective method and warning for reducing is the risk of loss of life and economic one of the losses most important nonstructural approaches Courtesy Micha Werner
4 Elements of early warning systems
5 Just a FEW(S) Applications
6 Deltares & (flow) forecasting Hydrology in real-time; integrator of complex information to provide decision makers with a platform to take qualitatively good decisions on floods, droughts & operational management Water quality (incl. spills) and ecology (e.g. algae blooms) Levee strength (Scenario & design studies) Detection Warning Response Forecasting Simulation Deltares
7 Deltares & (hydrological) forecasting Hydrology in real-time; integrator of complex information to provide decision makers with a platform to take qualitatively good decisions on floods, droughts & operational management Water quality (incl. spills) and ecology (e.g. algae blooms) Levee strength (Scenario & design studies) Detection Warning Response Forecasting Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting Simulation System Deltares
8 Data Data retrieval system Data processing components Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System
9 Data Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System Hydraulic and hydrological models Fluvial modelling Advanced subgrid modelling Coastal modelling
10 Data Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System Hydraulic Models Forecasts & warnings
11 import data feeds Delft-FEWS import validation transformation / interpolation data hierarchy general adapter export / report administration (data, forecasts) view ing (data, forecasts) archiving PI models > 150 formats for data import export & dissemination DELFT FEWS flood forecasting shell Philosophy Framework for organisation for the flood forecasting process Integration of (complex) data from several sources - present single source to forecaster Provides general functional utilities Open interface to models used for forecasting Dissemination of results Delft FEWS is an open system joint development approach
12 Integrating forecast models Delft FEWS independent of model - Key to philosophy of Delft FEWS Existing models available used operationally maintain investment (i.e. SOBEK, HEC-RAS, URBS) No model available choose models from wide range consider suitability & available knowledge base New models from academia fast track science to operations
13 Sharing Tools > 50 models of different nature DELFT-FEWS Model Type Supplier/Owner Country ISIS 1D Hydrodynamic HR/Halcrow UK Flux 1D Hydrodynamics Scietec Austria DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands TWAM 2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK DELFT-3D 2D-3D Hydrodynamics Deltares Netherlands Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK BASEFLOW Baseflow Simulation NWS USA CHANLOSS Channel loss Simulation NWS USA CONSUSE Consumptive use of River Simulation NWS USA Grid2Grid Distributed Hydrologic Model CEH UK REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Vieux & Assiciates USA PCRASTER Dynamic Modelling Software University Utrecht Netherlands ARMA Error Correction CEH UK PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK GLACIER Glacier simulation NWS USA HEC-RAS Hydrodynamic USACE USA SynHP Hydrodynamics BfG Germany Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands SOBEK-2d Linked 1d/2d inundation modelling Deltares Netherlands RSNELEV Rain Snow Elevation Simulation NWS USA PDM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK TCM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK Sacramento Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands NAM Rainfall-Runoff DHI Denmark MCRM Rainfall-Runoff EA UK Wageningen model Rainfall-Runoff Haskoning Netherlands SAC-SMA Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA API-CONT Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA SACSMATH Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA TOPKAPI Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Bologna Italy PRMS Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Karlsruhre Germany HBV Rainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt) SHMI Sweden URBS Rainfall-runoff and hydrological routing Don Caroll Australia rtcmodule Reservoir Simulation Deltares Netherlands SSARRESV Reservoir Simulation NWS USA RESSNGL Reservoir Simulation NWS USA HEC-ResSim Reservoir Simulation USACE USA LAG/K Routing (hydrological) NWS USA SARROUTE Routing (hydrological) NWS USA KW Routing (kinematic wave) CEH UK DODO Routing (layered Muskingum) EA UK LAYCOEF Routing Model NWS USA MUSKROUT Routing Model NWS USA LAYCOEF Routing model NWS USA TATUM Routing Model NWS USA PACK Snow Melt CEH UK Snow17 Snow Melt NWS USA TRITON Surge propagation/overtopping PlanB UK STF Transfer functions EA UK Unit-HG Unit-Hydrograph NWS USA SWMM Urban Rainfall-Runoff USGS USA RIBASIM Water distribution + Reservoir Deltares Netherlands Model Generic Type Supplier/Owner Country ISIS Module Adapter 1D Hydrodynamic HR/Halcrow UK Flux 1D Hydrodynamics Scietec Austria DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands TWAM XML 2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK DELFT-3D 2D-3D Hydrodynamics Deltares Netherlands Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK BASEFLOW Baseflow Simulation NWS USA CHANLOSS Model Channel loss Simulation NWS USA CONSUSE Consumptive use of River Simulation NWS USA Grid2Grid Adapter Distributed Hydrologic Model CEH UK REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands Native Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Native Vieux & Assiciates USA format PCRASTER Model Dynamic Modelling format Software University Utrecht Netherlands ARMA Error Correction CEH UK PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK GLACIER Glacier simulation NWS USA HEC-RAS Hydrodynamic USACE USA SynHP Hydrodynamics BfG Germany Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands
14 Services offered by Delft FEWS Import & Export Validation & Interpolation (temporal & spatial) Transformation Model execution (manual, automatic, ensemble) What-if scenarios & modifiers Error correction & updating Performance indicators Flood mapping Display (times series, longitudinal, spatial, schematic) Configuration management Web reporting Archiving (Matroos/OpenEarth) Calibration (OpenDA) Verification
15 Delft FEWS Client Server System server client forecasting shell(s) FSS master controller operator client MC OC admin interface central database AI LDS Servers hosted centrally Client access through internet/intranet Central servers & distributed clients FEWS Scotland
16 Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System Resilient system for operational forecasting Platform for operational research, independent of operating system Fully configurable by (super)users and very scalable Short cycle from research to operations Philosophy Extension done in co-operation between Deltares & client (& third parties) Available to FEWS available to the FEWS community Joint development approach FEWS User Community to share developments Bringing together all stakeholders in the forecasting process
17 Providing the forecaster an interface to data Simple graphical user interface Self explanatory Key features GIS Based Overview of data & status FEWS Scotland flood status in several catchments, January 2008 FEWS Donau (Austria) Graphs at key stations
18 Data visualisation and editing Graphical data Powerful graphical tools for viewing time series data Point time series Longitudinal profiles (animated) Editing capabilities copy to-from e.g. Excel Historical event at Torwinny, Scotland Longitudinal Display
19 Data visualisation Spatial Data Present data spatially Animated inundation maps Regular and curved gridded products
20 Data visualisation Schematic simple schematic displays with status information Overview as well as detailed information Example: gate openings
21 Integration of data Interfaces to data sources Supports standards in data exchange formats: GRIB, NetCDF, etc. Data exchange with HIMS (e.g. WISKI, HYMOS) Plugin-technology to extend integration of data formats Source code of plugin architecture available on Delft-FEWS Wiki Emerging standards: WaterML OpenGIS standard for exchange of hydrological data (USGS, NWS, CUAHSI)
22 Generating products HTML Web reports Internal & External clients Overview Reports Detailed Reports
23 Using and displaying probabilistic data Delft FEWS database model is inherently ensemble aware Import ensemble data (e.g. ECMWF, COSMO-LEPS) Run models for ensemble members results statistical summary verification FEWS-CH: COSMO-LEPS Forecast for :00 UTC FEWS-CH: SRNWP-PEPS Forecast for :00 UTC
24 Further development & extension Some current developments Dealing with uncertainties Verification system (prognostic) Calibration Real-time control of reservoirs Water Quality forecasting Temperature forecasting Data assimilation techniques (OpenDA.org) Philosophy Extension done in co-operation between Deltares & client (& third parties) Available to FEWS available to the FEWS community Joint development approach FEWS User Community to share developments Bringing together all stakeholders in the forecasting process
25 Summary Delft FEWS provides a state of the art forecasting shell tailored to suit specific needs enables forecasting organisations to take ownership & extend provides wide range of functionality for data transformation, interpolation, validation etc. open to models & data open to extending functionality through plug-ins & services Potential small scale applications water boards administrative areas (regions) multi-national (large river basins, basin organisations)
26 Some figures for Delft-FEWS An estimated guess: between 250 and 350 people in the world work on a day-to-day base with Delft-FEWS Delft-FEWS is being used in over 30 countries with over 50 unique apllications Since 2003 our users have invested over 40 M in the development of the system and its use. This investment covers: configuration of the system for each individual client research in operational water management and forecasting software development training (Deltares staff, client, intermediairies) 18 User Days (8 NL and 10 International) Community portal with 500 registered users and >200 downloads
27 Delft-FEWS worldwide
28 Delft-FEWS and her partners
29 Deltares role in community Deltares in the Delft-FEWS community guard philosophy and guarantee robust and stable software initiate new ideas and connect people coordinate developments facilitate new developments provide releases on a regular basis provide detailed information on new developments provide documentation provide training & courses provide third parties with Delft-FEWS and train them cooperate with third parties on new developments
30 Examples of collaboration at a national level Bringing together hydrologists and meteorologists (and other stakeholders) National Flood Forecasting System in the UK Fluvial and coastal forecasting, development Flood Forecasting Centre, implementation of the G2G model in a FEWS environment National Weather Service, Community Hydrological Prediction System (CHPS) in the USA Independent RFC s, but centralized tool development, migration from current NWSRFS to Delft-FEWS RWsOS, the approach at the Water Management Centre Netherlands a harmonised forecasting system covering all national fluvial and coastal waters in the Netherlands HyFS, a national flow forecasting system for Australia From a distributed approach to a more centralised approach, with an outlook towards storm surge forecasting
31 National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) Environment Agency for England & Wales Flood warning responsibility rivers coasts 1.6 million people at risk Wide variety of catchments Flooding happens regularly Implementation Harmonisation of 8 regions with 8 different systems & procedures Complex hydrological methods and procedures > 20 different model types > 2000 forecasting locations
32 Community Hydrological Prediction System The Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) will enable NOAA s water research, development enterprise and operational service delivery infrastructure to be integrated and leveraged with other federal water agency activities, academia, and the private sector greater ease in implementing new models greater collaboration with agency partners, universities, international community SNOW model displays CHPS deployed across all 13 River Forecast Centres (projected) Migrated from current NWSRFS with > calibrated models
33 Operational Flow Forecasting at RWS Historically organised in Fresh water (rivers) and Salt water (Sea) systems Many different groups are responsible for forecasting (HMCN, HMCZ, SVSD, WDIJ, Hoogwatergroep, Infocentrum,..) In 2009 a harmonisation project started to optimize and harmonise the forecasting centres and the dissemination of forecasts From: Marc Philippart (RWS)
34 Hydrological Forecasting System in Australia National Flood Forecasting system for the Bureau of Meteorology Migration of existing systems (Peak-Heights, URBS) Use of new modelling techniques Challenge: one system for 7 regions Challenge: add new research products Challenge: migrate towards a centralised approach
35 What s in it for us and for you? Relationship with key players allows us to advance Delft-FEWS continuously Direct involvement in client s research projects and technology advances Long-term committment from clients, both in resources and ideas, to support sustainable Delft-FEWS product management Robust product that is being continuously improved Access to other Delft-FEWS users around the world; User days (30 & 31 October 2013) and Community Portal ( Continuity in development of the product In the US, Delft-FEWS ties us together as a nation Quote from Scott Lindsey from RFC Alaksa, USA
36 Some conditions for success Acceptation of a new approach in organisation is often not straight forward, so an iterative proces is essential Water expertise, organisational aspects, software and ICT are equally important and need to be addressed in an intergrated approach Start implementation only after having full commitment Implementation team respresentation from all groups directly involved small team with focus team members need to be able to take decisions Planning to be set in stone Start thinking about support & maintenance in the early stages of the project
37 From our Chinese partner...
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