Weather-readiness assessment model for Utilities. Shy Muralidharan Global Product Manager Energy Solutions Schneider Electric

Transcription

1 Weather-readiness assessment model for Utilities Shy Muralidharan Global Product Manager Energy Solutions Schneider Electric 1

2 Agenda > Impact of weather on Utilities businesses > Why should you be weather ready now? > Benefits of weather readiness assessment > Key elements of the assessment model > Wrap-up and Q&A 2

3 Weather Impact on Utilities 3

4 Events Impact of weather on Utilities business Observed outages in the bulk electric system Year Outages and their causes 679 outage events between 2003 and 2012 Thunderstorms, hurricanes and blizzards account for 58% of outages (since 2002 ) 87% of all outages affecting 50,000+ customers is due to weather Hurricane Sandy caused $65 Bn in damages Severe weather parameters Events: Winter storms, Hurricane, high winds, lightning, Tornado High winds, heavy rain, Ice, Snow cause about 30% of all outages. Historical "Grid Disturbance" data from the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Form OE-417, Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report (Before 1998 from the NERC, Disturbance Analysis Working Group). 4

5 Impact of weather volatility on utilities Annual cost of weather-related outages - $18-33 Bn Collateral damage operational failures, equipment malfunction, circuit overloads, load shedding, etc. Weather volatility is increasing every year Grid deterioration - Age of 70% of transmission lines and power transformers are > 25 years Average age of generation assets is > 30 years Lack of extensive automation in utility equipment Utilities operations are already impacted significantly due to severe weather events Results from Schneider Electric internal study on weather impact on the balance sheets of Investor-owned Utilities,

6 Important to be weather-ready now Increasing outages Weather-related outages going up in 100,000s Significant investment to bring down these numbers Weather in P&L statements Recover eligible costs from future severe weather events Return on investments through the regulatory process Deviation from Normals Preparing for low-probability high-impact events High-variance from normals leads to unpredictable demand Loss of revenues & property Outages leading to significant revenue loss Unplanned damages leads to unplanned investment & expenses Climate-change linked investments Utilities linking weather events to climate change, Investments assume severe weather to increase in frequency There are clear benefits for Utilities to perform a weather-readiness assessment 6

7 Benefits of a weather-readiness assessment Weather-readiness assessment will help Utilities understand the current status of their systems with respect to weather volatility, identify the influence of weather and measure how weather variables impact their business goals of providing reliable power, maintaining service levels and limiting operational costs. 7

8 Key elements of the weatherreadiness assessment model 8

9 It starts with business outcomes Enterprise Avoid uncertainty in weather-related investments Lower emergency operation costs Effective risk management policy Consolidate weather-related expenses across the organization Generation Reduce generation costs Reduce plant risks Effective load forecasting Incorporate distributed generation effectively & efficiently T&D Improve reliability indices SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI, etc. Reduce response time Reduce number of outages Reduce outage restoration time Improve maintenance scheduling Retail Operations Design weather normalized tariffs Run successful DR/EE programs Improve customer communication protocols Improve Customer satisfaction 9

10 and translated into operational outcomes Risk management policies and process Develop a study on weather impact on people, property and environment Simulate storm prep. pocess and response planning System flexibility and robustness Add additional transmission lines for routing options Energy storage devices to supplement generation Balance generation and load in microgrids Visualization and situational awareness Use of smart sensors to improve failure notification H/W & S/W to provide high-res real-time view of the grid Advanced control systems and software Automated feeder switches to respond to fault conditions Sensors to detect real-time equipment condition Decision-support tools to manage and control assets Infrastructure strengthening Strengthen infrastructure for wind and flood damage Upgrading poles with stronger material Explore underground utility lines Economic benefits of increasing electric grid resilience to weather outages, Executive office of the President of the United States,

11 Assessments have to make economic sense Performance Number of weather-related outages Duration of weather-related outages Trend of reliability indices SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI, etc. Fault identification lead times Demand modelling verification statistics Costs Cost of weather investments Cost of rebuilding infrastructure after a severe weather event Cost of accessing mutual assistance Cost of integrating weather into an existing application Cost of making/buying a weather application 11

12 The assessment begins with a set of questions Quantitative vs. Qualitative Should I rely only on quantitative data or go for qualitative advice? A combination of the two? Meteorologist vs. in-house What are the advantages to having an in-house meteorologist vs. hiring a service provider? Independent vs. integrated applications Historical vs. Observation vs. forecast How integrated should my weather data be into my applications? Can I leverage weather data in one part of the business in another? How much history do I need? Should I start with observations or forecast? Visualization vs. analytics Should I visualize weather data or analyze it? What are the advantages of doing either? Answers to these questions will define scope of readiness assessment 12

13 Data preparation is key to the assessment Predictive capabilities Situational awareness Business Continuity Day-ahead demand planning Severe weather tracking Short-term demand planning Operations planning Weather simulation Location siting Longterm demand planning Budget and resources management Granularity of weather data 10-yr Normals Seasonal Monthly Weekly Daily Hourly Sub-hourly Successful data preparation is the basis for robust analytics downstream 13

14 Integrated decision support Decision-support level - up to the Utility What best can happen? what will happen next?.... What if trends continue?.....why is this happening?... Statistical Analysis Trend Forecasting Predictive Modelling Optimization Notification Alerts.. What action is needed?... Specific Query..What is the cause of the problem?. Situational Reports..How many? How often? Where?... Standard Reports What happened?.... Degree of Intelligence 14

15 Enterprise Applications Operations applications Consumer Applications Weather supports decisions across the utility Situational Awareness Business Intelligence Grid Simulation / visualization Load forecasting Trading Analytics Asset Management analytics Distribution Management Analytics Outage Management Analytics Fault Detection and Correction Mobile Workforce Management Variable pricing tiered, real-time pricing, etc. Demand Response Building Automation Distributed Generation Electric Vehicles stations Microgrid Analytics Graphic Adapted from Utility Analytics Market & Energy Analytics Market (Solar Analytics, Oil & Gas Analytics, Water analytics, Waste analytics): Global Advancements, Business Models, Worldwide Market Forecasts and Analysis ( ) 15

16 The applications drive the type of data used Qualitative Time-ofuse variable tariffs Climate risk report Post-storm report Electric vehicles charging Customer engagement applications Renewables integration using forecasts Seasonal weather outlook for a region Historical Energy Efficiency Weather data report for an incident Weather tracking for an asset location Obs Fault detection Grid simulation Demand response Energy efficiency Distributed generation (solar) Microgrid analytics Forecast Quantitative Weather-readiness can be real-time awareness or be predictive 16

17 and level of weather integration Integrated Visualization Weather-integrated utility control center Weather API widget in application dashboard Weather stationintegrated app Weather in trading apps Weatherintegrated OMS Situational awareness applications Real-time weather data API Weatherintegrated DMS Weather information portal Storm Impact analytics Weather-based advanced AI engine Weather integrated asset mgmt. Load forecasting Weather for load forecasting Analytics Weather on TV Weather smartphone app Historical weather analysis Independent The more integrated weather data is, the better the assessment 17

18 Some solutions that deliver weather-readiness Weather-readiness objective Assessment output Weather data Utility/Other data Level of integration Assessment of new asset location Climate risk report Historical data / seasonal trends None Independent Day-to-day operations of infrastructure Weather-integrated GIS solutions Observations/forecasts / Severe weather Asset data Integrated Modelling energy demand Customer engagement application Temperature, HDD, CDD, Load consumption Integrated Storm impact on utility Online portal or weather (WSO) Alerting off of storm data with critical location data Asset locations Integrated/ Independent Damage assessment Storm impact analytics Storm variables (wind, lightning, etc.) Infrastructure, assets, vegetation, etc. Highly integrated 18

19 Integrated Solution Weather Data + Utility GIS Data + Analytics = Storm impact assessment 19

20 Summary To be weather-ready is an imperative for Utilities There is a strong economic case to be weather-ready (ROI-driven) Weather-readiness assessment has to start with business outcomes The right type of weather data has to be prepared to be weather-ready Weather has to visualized and/or analyzed for decision support systems Assessment outputs will include specific next steps across the organization to be weather ready 20