How To Understand The New Ethernet Switch Market

Transcription

1 SDN and the Cloud: Will They Revolutionize Ethernet Markets? Alan Weckel Vice President

2 Introduction About Dell Oro Group The New Ethernet Switch Market Where we are now and where we are going Data Center Networking Customer complexities and the effect of SDN Vendor Performance Page 2

3 About Dell Oro Group

4 Dell Oro Group Introduction Dell Oro Group is a market research firm that tracks IT, networking, and telecom infrastructure Quarterly market share reports include port shipments, as well as market forecasts Data Center and Ethernet Switch Research Holistic view of the data center, covering Ethernet Switching, Servers, and Storage from a networking perspective Ethernet Switch research firsts: White Box Switching Top-of-Rack Breakouts Port Speed Forecasts: 2.5/5.0 GE in the Campus 25/50 GE in the Data Center Page 4

5 The New Ethernet Switch Market Where we are now and where we are going

6 Percent of Revenue Ethernet Switch Market 100% Service Provider (Carrier Ethernet) Data Center Enterprise - Campus SMB (<200 wired devices) 0% Page 6

7 Overall Ethernet Switch Market Trends Mega trends shaping a new type of Ethernet Switch market China s growth is changing the vendor landscape User connectivity is transitioning from wired to wireless connectivity Cloud providers are reshaping how networking is consumed Page 7

8 2014 Ethernet Switch Revenue in China HP (H3C) Huawei ZTE Rest of Market Page 8

9 Port Shipments in Millions Enterprise Edge Port Shipments 5.0 GE 2.5 GE Page 9

10 Campus Market is Fracturing No consensus on 2.5/5.0 Gbps specification NBASE-T vs MGBase-T fight is bad for Ethernet and bad for customers Ethernet s popularity has always been driven by its interoperability HP s planned acquisition of Aruba has far reaching consequences #2 vendor in Ethernet switching is buying the #2 vendor in WLAN. This will cause all vendors other than Cisco to revaluate their campus strategies Page 10

11 Data Center Networking Customer complexities and the effect of SDN

12 Petabits Shipping Ethernet Switch Data Center Bandwitdh Machine-to-Machine Machine-to-User Page 12

13 Percent of Server Shipments (Bars) Enterprise Server Shipments in Millions (Line) Server Market Adoption 100% Enterprises Cloud and SP 0% Page 13

14 Percent of Server Shipments Server Market Adoption 100% Rack and Tower Blade High-Density 0% Page 14

15 Percent of Server Shipments Speed Migration on Servers Total Market 100% 1 Gbps 10 Gbps 40 Gbps 50 Gbps 25 Gbps 100 Gbps 0% Page 15

16 Select Companies Server Installed Base End of K 1 M >1 M Page 16

17 Revenue in $ Billions Ethernet Switch Data Center Revenue $14 Top 7 Cloud Providers Rest of Cloud and all Service Providers Rest of Market (Enterprise and SMB) $0 Page 17

18 Revenue in $ Billions Ethernet Switch Data Center Revenue $14 Software 100 GE 40 GE 10 GE $0 1 GE 25/50 GE *During the next several years, almost all 25/50GE servers ports are expected to connect to 100 GE switch ports. Page 18

19 White Box / Bare Metal Adoption in the Data Center 2014 WW Server Units White Box 2014 WW Storage Units White Box 2014 WW Switch Ports White Box Rest of Market Rest of Market Rest of Market Page 19

20 Ethernet Switch Architecture Transformation Top-of-Rack Switch 2008 Operating System 2011 Operating System 2014 Operating System Cisco, Foundry, Force 10 Silicon Cisco, Foundry, Force 10 Switch Cisco, Arista, Dell Silicon Cisco, Broadcom, Intel Switch Cisco, BigSwitch, Cumulus Silicon Cisco, Broadcom, Cavium Network Processor Cavium, Broadcom, Intel Switch Cisco, Foundry, Force 10 Cisco, Arista, Dell Cisco, Accton, Quanta Page 20

21 Five Phases of SDN Phase 5 Adapt or Die Phase 1 Definitions and Discovery Phase 4 Large-scale production deployments Phase 2 Hype cycle Phase 3 Qualification of architectures and early stage production Page 21

22 Ethernet Switch Architecture Transformation Top-of-Rack Switch Market in 2016 Enterprise (10 GE) Traditional Vendor Model Cloud (100 GE) White Box Model Operating System Operating System Arista, Cisco, Dell, Huawei, Juniper Silicon Broadcom, Cisco, Huawei Switch Custom Built OS s, BigSwitch, Cumulus, Pica 8, Silicon Broadcom, Cavium, Mellanox, Stealth Vendor, Stealth Products Network Processor Broadcom, Cavium, Freescale, Intel Switch Arista, Cisco, Dell, Huawei, Juniper Accton, DNI, Foxconn, Quanta Page 22

23 Data Center Market Trends Cloud customers simply don t buy enterprise class products The feature gap between enterprise and cloud is increasing China s cloud will not follow the same path as the rest of the world Cloud providers are reshaping how networking is consumed Enterprises have cloud envy, likely need an intermediate step to get there Page 23

24 Ethernet Switch Vendor Performance

25 Ethernet Switch Revenue Share Campus/Enterprise Market Data Center Market Total Market Vendor 2014 Share Vendor 2014 Share Vendor 2014 Share Cisco 67% HP 13% Huawei <6% Juniper Extreme Avaya Alcatel-Lucent Brocade Cisco 60% HP 9% White Box <7% Arista Juniper Lenovo Brocade Extreme Cisco 61% HP 11% Huawei <4% Juniper White Box Arista Dell Extreme Page 25

26 Port Shipments in Millions Vendor Positioning (with White Box) Fixed 40 GE Purpose Built Port Shipments White Box Rest of Market Cisco Arista Page 26

27 Thank You