Ethernet Buyer Behavior. New Technology Adoption Survey Data & Analysis April 15, 2015

Transcription

1 Ethernet Buyer Behavior New Technology Adoption Survey Data & Analysis April 15, 2015

2 Waves are Driven by the Wind The bigger the wind, the bigger the wave. Page 2

3 They all came together in 2014 Hyperscale driven innovation New class of OEMs Integration of mobile and wireless Hyperscale Computing Open-Source Software Commercial Versions of Open-Source Cloud Platform Enterprise IT Webscale IT Wired/Wireless Carrier ICT & Smartphone Manufacturer Original Equipment Manufacturer Original Design Manufacturer & Open Source Hardware Contract Manufacturer

4 3 Market Dynamics Changing Enterprise IT #1 Public Cloud IaaS #2 Software Defined Data Center #3 White Box 4

5 Cloud 5

6 Public Cloud IaaS $30 $25 $20 Worldwide Infrastructure-as-a-Service Revenue ($B) Displacing traditional on premise servers, storage and networking infrastructure. $15 $10 $5 $ Source: Gartner & Forbes 6

7 Public Cloud IaaS 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Percentage of On-Premise Spending Replaced by Cloud Computing Over 15% of the traditional enterprise networking equipment market disappears into the public cloud in the next 5 years

8 Enterprise Infrastructure Leader Trajectory Billions Traditional Enterprise IT Leader Revenue Trend Cisco Dell Private EMC HP IBM

9 2014 On-Premise IT & Cloud Service Brand Leaders Voted by IT Pros On-Premise Backup EMC Dell EMC EMC EMC EMC On-Premise Enterprise Networked Storage On-Premise Dedicated Enterprise Server EMC Dell EMC EMC EMC NetApp HP Dell HP HP HP HP On-Premise Virtual Server VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware On-Premise Virtual Desktop VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware Cloud Backup Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Cloud Enterprise Networked Storage Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Cloud Dedicated Enterprise Server Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Cloud Virtual Server Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Cloud Virtual Desktop Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Amazon (AWS) Overall Backup (On-Premise/Cloud) EMC Dell EMC EMC Amazon AWS Amazon (AWS) Overall Enterprise Networked Storage (On-Premise/Cloud) Overall Dedicated Enterprise Server (On-Premise/Cloud) Overall Virtual Server (On-Premise/Cloud) Overall Virtual Desktop (On-Premise/Cloud) EMC Dell EMC EMC EMC NetApp HP Dell HP HP HP HP VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware VMware

10 SDDC 10

11 Software Defined Data Center Predominant Architecture Today Predominant Architecture in 10 Years Software Defined Servers (Server Virtualization) Software Defined Data Center 11

12 I expect the enterprise SDN ecosystem to most likely evolve in the following way: Cisco will dominate the SDN era just like they dominate the current era of hardware defined networking. Enterprise virtualization software leaders such as VMware will dominate enterprise SDN Open Linux and cloud platform leaders such as Red Hat will dominate enterprise SDN Open switch OS leaders such as Cumulus will dominate enterprise SDN Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 12

13 Are vendors talking to you about evaluating, purchasing and deploying: Software defined storage (object, block or file) Cloud operating system (OpenStack) NFV apps (router, firewall, load balancer, etc.) SDN orchestration software None of the above Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 13

14 Which of the following SDN/NFV products do you expect to evaluate or deploy in 2015? Virtual Switches Virtual Load Balancer Virtual Firewall Virtual NICs Virtual Router None of the above Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 14

15 My team knows that SDN and NFV are deployed by giant hyperscale environments, but: We have not learned enough about SDN/NFV technology and products to consider evaluating We have not evaluated SDN/NFV technology and products We are evaluating SDN/NFV now None of the above We would like to hear from other IT teams who have deployed SDN/NFV There are no buts, we think the SDN/NFV, products and support are ready for our enterprise. Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 15

16 What percentage of all (server, storage and switch) network ports in your data center are: 1Gb Ethernet 10Gb Ethernet 100Gb Ethernet 8Gb Fibre Channel 16Gb Fibre Channel 40Gb InfiniBand 40Gb Ethernet 1/2/4Gb Fibre Channel 10/20 Gb InfiniBand 56Gb InfiniBand 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 16

17 Which of the following high-speed Ethernet products do you expect to evaluate or deploy in 2015? 10Gb Switches 10Gb NICs 40Gb Switches 40Gb NICs 25Gb Switches 100Gb Switches None of the above 25Gb NICs 100Gb NICs 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 17

18 My understanding is the 25G Ethernet standards: Are still not ratified Were ratified in 2014 A standard for this speed will never be developed Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 18

19 This percentage of our 10Gb NICs are deployed in our data centers: In virtualized servers In non-virtualized servers 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 19

20 This percentage of our 10Gb NICs are: Not partitioned into virtual NICs Partitioned into virtual NICs 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 20

21 Are you aware that today you can create multiple virtual 1GbE NICs out of one or more 10GbE NICs, efficiently splitting the bandwidth and lowering operating costs? Yes, I knew but it didn t change my practice of using multiple 1GbE NICs 33.0% Yes, I knew and that s a big reason why I started using 10GbE NICs 32.7% No, but it won t change my practice of using multiple 1Gb NICs 24.0% No, if I had known, I would have started using 10GbE NICs 10.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

22 I want to manage my virtual network resources from (select all that apply): Server virtualization hypervisor (VMware, Hyper-V, Xen) 66.7% Switch/Fabric management software Best-of-breed software for individual solutions 26.8% 33.8% Overarching manager of managers (HP OpenView, CA Unicenter, IBM 15.2% Other 3.5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

23 2015 Ethernet, Networking & SDN Brand Leaders Voted by IT Pros FCoE Switches Cisco Brocade Cisco Brocade Cisco Brocade Ethernet Core Switches Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Ethernet Top of Rack Switches Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Enterprise Ethernet NICs Intel Intel Intel Intel Intel Intel Ethernet Network Monitoring SolarWinds SolarWinds SolarWinds SolarWinds SolarWinds SolarWinds Embedded Blade Server Networking HP Dell HP Cisco Cisco HP SDN Platform Cisco APIC Cisco APIC Cisco APIC Cisco APIC Cisco APIC Cisco APIC SDN Enabled Switches Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Cisco Layer 4-7 NFV Services Platform VMware NSX VMware NSX VMware NSX VMware NSX VMware NSX VMware NSX SDN Monitoring Microsoft (DEMON) Microsoft (DEMON) Microsoft (DEMON) Microsoft (DEMON) Microsoft (DEMON) Microsoft (DEMON) Bare Metal Switch OS Cumulus Linux Cumulus Linux Big Switch (Switch Light) & Cumulus Linux (tie) Big Switch (Switch Light) Big Switch (Switch Light) Cumulus Linux Open Networking Switch Dell Dell Dell Dell Dell Dell 23

24 White Box 24

25 White Box/Bare Metal Switches New Business Model Hardware specification, design, assembly and procurement, some firmware and software support Repair and maintenance, less of IT consulting and software for these IT savvy customers Specialized Customers (Cloud, Carrier) ODM Vendor (Quanta, Hon Hai, Accton, Celestica) Brand Vendor (Dell, HP, Cisco, EMC) Traditional Customers (Business, Gov, Education) HW assembly, design & components Traditional Model IT consulting, maintenance & repair 25

26 Traditional, White Box & Brite Box Switch Models

27 Building on Bare Metal ONIE is the Open Network Install Environment, and Open Compute Project open source initiative contributed by Cumulus Networks

28 OCP Wedge Switch Architecture Big Switch Switch Light OS Cumulus - Cumulus Linux Pica8 - PicOS NOS FBOSS Facebook NOS Switch ASICs: Broadcom, Intel, Mellanox, Accton

29 Facebook Six Pack Facebook's Six Pack switch is a 7RU chassis that includes eight of its Wedge switches and two fabric cards (Photo: Facebook) 29

30 Which of the following open networking switch products do you expect to evaluate or deploy in 2015? We will not be evaluating or deploying open networking switch products Branded white box switches (Brite Box) switches from Dell or HP, running an open switch operating system from Cumulus, Pica8 or BigSwitch None of the above Non-branded white box switches from hyperscale providers Quanta or Accton, running an open switch operating system from Cumulus, Pica8 or BigSwitch 0% 20% 40% 60% 30

31 Obstacles to my IT organization considering open networking switches are: We don't know enough about open networking switches to consider them We don't believe new open networking switches will be as reliable as switches from current Vendors are not talking to us about open networking switches References from other IT organizations that have deployed open networking switches None of the above Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 31

32 We need the following protocols supported simultaneously in our data centers: TCP/IP for LAN and NAS traffic Fibre Channel for storage area networks iscsi for for storage area networks Fibre Channel over Ethernet for storage area networks VXLAN for tunneling L2 traffic over L3 networks RDMA for low-latency cluster interconnects RDMA for low-latency scale-out traffic across the data center NVGRE for tunneling L2 traffic over L3 networks 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 32

33 POV 33

34 Inflection Point What it takes to win Business goes on to new heights Open Source NOS Bare Metal Switches NFV Apps SDN Orchestration >$5B R&D Hyperscale, Carrier & Enterprise Unified Wired & Wireless 10x change in an element of the business. What worked before doesn t work now. The executives are the last to know. Business declines Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, by Andy Grove

35 A Winning Formula Programmable Switch OS SDN Tools Enterprise-class Hardware 35

36 The Result: Arista Revenue & Net Income 600 Millions $ $ $193 $140 $73.0 $13.8 $9.6 $

37 Maybe a Winning Strategy: Go Private and Double Down on Open Acquire & Partner for SW Dec., Dell has added Midokura to its Open Networking initiative to include Midokura. The deal includes a joint go-to-market program, validated reference architecture and global reseller agreement. Midokura s Enterprise MidoNet software will now be available on Dell infrastructure, delivering a network virtualization overlay for OpenStack that helps enterprise customers and service providers create an agile cloud networking infrastructure based on open technologies. Dell said MidoNet fits well with its existing partnership with Cumulus Networks for its Linux operating system. The Dell, Cumulus Networks and Midokura solution enables a growing number of service providers and enterprise customers to provision scalable virtual networks to connect to physical workloads in a matter of minutes. Midokura MidoNet leverages Dell switches to facilitate network traffic flows from virtual machines to nonvirtualized, physical workloads such as high-performance databases, servers and legacy systems at line rate. What this shows is that we re actively connecting the dots with like-minded companies to upend the traditional, black-box model of networking, said Tom Burns, vice president and general manager, Dell Networking. That old model is too rigid, too locked and too slow to innovate. Dell s Open Networking initiative is about being open, flexible and software-defined to help maximize our customers application environments. Offer Bare Metal Switches Jan., The shift toward open data center and networking technologies got a boost this week when Dell announced a reseller deal to offer Cumulus Networks' Linux network OS for bare-metal switches. Through the partnership, Dell said it will offer Cumulus Linux network OS to customers as an option for its S6000 and S4810 top-of-rack switches. The new strategy from Dell is the latest effort to decouple networking hardware from the underlying software. Proponents say disaggregating networking components will enable companies to significantly reduce their data center and network costs as they look to embrace the software-defined networking trend and get away from paying a premium for tightly integrated network stacks from a single vendor. "I believe there's a big market opportunity for using standard x86 hardware modules for low-cost switches," John Abbott, distinguished analyst at The 451 Group, said via . "The network is heading in the same direction as servers and storage." Dell, which is in the midst of re-inventing itself as a private company in the post-pc era, wants to capitalize on that opportunity.

38 Maybe a Winning Strategy: Divest HW, Focus on Software & China Invest in SW & Wireless March, The networking division at HP has had a chequered past. Under some CEO's it has been seen as important to the business but under others it has been left to rot. In 2013, HP revamped its networking division and put Bethany Mayer in charge. Despite a successful tenure, last year it spun out Network Functions Virtualisation (NFV) into its own division and appeared to move Mayer sideways. The result was that six months later, Mayer bailed for a better job at Ixia. Since then, HP has been fairly quiet about networking, despite its importance to HP's cloud strategy. HP has invested a lot of money into Software Defined Networks (SDN), NFV, is a leading vendor in OpenDaylight and OpenStack. As a result HP's silence has been confusing to the market. Now it has announced it is to buy Aruba Networks for a substantial $3 billion but when cash at hand is taken into account, HP will pay a net $2.7 billion. The market will be looking closely at this one and wondering if this will be a good or bad move for HP. By acquiring Aruba Networks, HP will also strengthen its wider security intelligence offering. It will be able to gather much more detail about mobile networking traffic. This is something that only a few of its security, networking and cloud competitors such as Cisco, IBM and Huawei are in a position to do. Divest in HW, gain access to China March 26, H-P Nears Deal to Sell Control of Chinese Unit Tsinghua Unigroup has emerged as the preferred bidder in an auction of 51% of the business, H3C Technologies Co., the people said. A deal between the two parties, which could also include a separate server operation, may still be a few weeks away and there is no guarantee another bidder won t re-emerge, one of the people said. Tsinghua Unigroup had been competing with other bidders for the business, which is worth roughly $5 billion in total, including China Huaxin Post and Telecommunication Economy Development Center, people familiar with the matter said. H-P, driven by the issue to seek a buyer for the business, limited the list of bidders for H3C to domestic companies in order to win Chinese government approval for the sale and boost the prospects for the operation there. Purchasing control of H3C would give Tsinghua Unigroup, a company funded by the prestigious Tsinghua University, a major presence in China s networking gear market after it recently purchased two of China s largest chip designers. In September, Tsinghua Unigroup also signed a strategic alliance with Intel Corp. that gave the U.S. chip maker 20% of the Chinese company s shares for a price of $1.5 billion. H3C is a major supplier of corporate-data networking gear in China. H3C, which H-P inherited when it bought 3Com Corp. in 2010, has 5,000 employees world-wide, according to its website.

39 Past: Enterprise HW Defined Ecosystem Cisco & Dwarves EMC & Dwarves HP, IBM, Dell, Lenovo Vendor NOS Orchestration Monitoring Appliances Router Firewall Load Balancer Etc. Vendor Storage Software Failover DeDup Compression Etc. Server Virtualization ESX Hyper-V Xen KVM Vendor Switch Vendor Switch OS Vendor Storage System Vendor Block, File, Object OS Vendor Server Merchant Server OS Vendor/Merchant Switch ASIC Merchant Server Processor Merchant Server Processor

40 Future: Enterprise SW Defined Ecosystem Today many pure-play start-ups in SDN, NFV, software defined storage and switch OS segments Cloud Platform (vcloud, Azure + commercial versions of OpenStack) SDN Orchestration Controller Switches Monitoring NFV Router Firewall Load Balancer Etc. Software Defined Storage Block File Object Failover, Dedup, Compression Server Virtualization ESX Hyper-V Xen KVM Merchant Switch OS w/sdn agents White Box Switch Bare Metal Switch Merchant Programmable Switch ASIC Merchant Server OS White Box Server Bare Metal Server Merchant Server Processor

41 10 Year History of Software Defined Servers 100% 80% Workloads Virtualized 60% 40% Workloads Not Virtualized 20% 0% Source: Gartner 41

42 Software Define Storage in 10 Years (Forecast) Commercial versions of open-source based Enterprise SDS Cloud OS Orchestration Storage Apps White Box Servers Public Cloud Hyperscale SDS Hosted Private Cloud Traditional Enterprise Storage On Premise Private Cloud Enterprise SDS Source: Wikibon & IT Brand Pulse

43 Software Defined Networking in 10 Years (Forecast) Commercial versions of open-source based Enterprise SDN & NFV Apps SDN Orchestration NFV Apps White Box Switches Open Switch OS Public Cloud Hyperscale SDN Hosted Private Cloud Traditional Enterprise Networking On Premise Private Cloud Enterprise SDN Source: IT Brand Pulse

44 Coming Soon An Epic Land Rush for the Wide Open Software Defined Data Center

45 You won t have to buy the whole album to get one app OpenStack Apps Network Software Suite Network Services Network OS QOS Load Balancing Firewall Network Monitoring IPv6 Encryption FCoE WAN Opitmization VXLAN Network OS Network OS Eagles Justin Timberlake Pit Bull MC Hammer U2 Marvin Gaye Mariah Carey Rolling Stones Rolling Stones Usher Miley Cyrus Bruce Springsteen Network OS

46 Data Center App Innovation will Explode

47 IBM is Ahead in the Race to Pass the Hardware Baton Page 47

48 A New Group of HW OEMs are Ready to Carry the Baton 1985 Vertical Integration 1995 Contract Manufacturer 2005 Original Design Manufacturer 2015 Original Equipment Manufacturer US RoW US RoW US RoW US RoW Sell Sell Sell Mfg. Design Design Page 48

49 Same Servers, New Perspective 89% Software GM% 36% 36% x86 Server GM% 12% PC GM% x86 Server GM% IBM Lenovo Page 49

50 First Movers Net Worth Mark Zuckerberg $33B Larry Page $32B Jeff Bezos $30B Sergey Brin $30B Jack Ma $26B Ma Huatang $15B Robin Li $15B Page 50

51 Late Movers Traditional Enterprise Infrastructure PC Client Computing Mergers & Acquisitions Stock Buybacks Cost Cutting

52