A Descriptive Look at College Enrollment and Degree Completion of Baltimore City Graduates. Rachel E. Durham. Erik Westlund B E R C

Transcription

1 A Descriptive Look at College Enrollment and Degree Completion of Baltimore City Graduates Rachel E. Durham Erik Westlund B E R C Baltimore Education Research Consortium August 2011

2 B E R C Baltimore Education Research Consortium BERC Executive Committee Andrés Alonso, Ed.D., Chief Executive Officer, Baltimore City Public Schools Faith Connolly, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Baltimore Education Research Consortium Diane Bell-McKoy, President/CEO at Associated Black Charities Jacquelyn Duval-Harvey, Ph.D., Deputy Commissioner for Youth and Families for the Baltimore City Health Department J. Howard Henderson, President & CEO of the Greater Baltimore Urban League Obed Norman, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Science Education in Morgan State University's Graduate Program in Mathematics and Science Education. Stephen Plank, Ph.D., Associate Professor in The Johns Hopkins University s Department of Sociology Sonja Brookins Santelises, Ed.D., Chief Academic Officer, Baltimore City Public Schools Jane Sundius, Director of the Education and Youth Development Program at OSI-Baltimore Matthew D. Van Itallie, J.D., Chief Accountability Officer, Baltimore City Public Schools Without the assistance of numerous partners, this research would not have been possible. The authors extend their gratitude to Jeanetta Churchill, the Office of Institutional Research at Morgan State, Morgan State affiliates, and BERC research staff members. The study was completed through the generous support of the Abell Foundation.

3 Table of Contents List of Tables... ii List of Figures... iii Executive Summary... v Background... 1 The Benefits of Educational Attainment... 1 Barriers to College Access and Degree Completion... 2 Methodology... 4 Research Questions... 4 Data and Analysis... 4 Findings... 6 How do local colleges define readiness for college?... 6 How many City Schools graduates enroll in college the fall immediately after graduation?... 7 How many City Schools graduates ever enroll in college?... 8 What does college enrollment among City Schools graduates look like by gender, receipt of special education services, and high school type?... 8 What types of postsecondary institutions do City Schools graduates attend? How many City Schools graduates complete postsecondary degrees? Discussion, Recommendations, and Conclusions References Appendices Appendix A: Comparison of Educational Attainment for People Aged 25 Years and Older in the US, Maryland, Baltimore County, and Baltimore City Appendix B: Data Sources and Collection Methods Appendix C: Data Processing and Methods of Analysis Appendix D: Graduation (Leaver Rate) and Fall College Enrollment for the Baltimore City Schools Graduating Classes of 2006 through Appendix E: Baltimore City Schools Classification By Year Appendix F: Most Frequently Enrolled Institutions of Higher Education Attended by City Schools Students from the Class of i

4 List of Tables Table National Unemployment Rate and Earnings by Educational Attainment...1 Table National Unemployment Rates by Race/Ethnicity and Educational Attainment...2 Table 3. Demographic Comparison of the USA, Maryland, and Baltimore County and Baltimore City...3 Table 4. Data Sources Used in This Study...5 Table 5. College ACCUPLACER Cut Scores for Determining College Ready by College/University...6 Table 6. Number and Rate of Baltimore City Graduates and Fall College Enrollment for the Classes of 2006 through Table 7. Number and Percent of Baltimore City Graduates Who Ever Enrolled in College and Enrolled the Fall After Graduation for the Classes of 2008 Through Table 8. Percentage of Students Receiving Special Education Services in the USA, Maryland, Baltimore County, and Baltimore City...9 Table 9. Number and Percent of Baltimore City Schools Graduates Ever Enrolling and Completing a 2-Year Degree by Fall 2010 for the Class of 2004, by Institution...17 Table 10. Number of Baltimore City Schools Graduates Who Ever Enrolled and Completed a 4-Year Degree by Fall 2010 for the Class of 2004 by Institution and IPEDS Degree Completion Rates...19 ii

5 List of Figures Figure 1. The percent of male and female high school graduates enrolled in college the fall after high school graduation Figure 2. The percent of high school graduates who received special education services in high school who enrolled in college the fall after high school graduation Figure 3. Percentage of Baltimore City graduates enrolled in college in the fall following high school graduation by high school type for the Classes of 2008 through Figure 4. Percent of high school graduates enrolled in college in the fall after high school graduation by high school subtype for the Class of Figure 5. The percent of students enrolled in college the fall after graduation who enrolled at 4-year or 2-year institutions Figure 6. Percent of students enrolled in the fall following graduation at 4-year colleges by selectivity ratings for the Classes of 2008 through Figure 7. Percent of City Schools graduates enrolled in Historically Black Colleges and Universities and out of state colleges, Figure 8. Percent of students completing degree (2- and 4-year degrees) for the Class of 2004 for all City Schools graduates and those who ever enrolled in college Figure 9. Percent of students completing 2- and 4-year degrees for the Class of 2004 by time of enrollment iii

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7 A Descriptive Look at College Enrollment and Degree Completion of Baltimore City Graduates Executive Summary Successful college preparation begins well before high school. Students must not only obtain a high school diploma or GED, but must also have cultivated sophisticated cognitive (i.e., reading, writing, and math) and non-cognitive abilities (e.g., time and conflict management skills, tenacity, sociability) that will allow them to thrive in the challenging academic environment of college (Roderick, Nagaoka, & Coca, 2009). Earning a college degree increases a person s life outcomes in income, employment, health, and quality of life. The average person with a bachelor s degree earns almost twice as much as a high school graduate and nearly triple that of someone who did not finish high school. The unemployment rate for people with bachelor s degrees is about one-third that for non-high school graduates and one-half that of high school graduates (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010). College graduates are also more likely to have health insurance and are more likely to participate in civic life for example, they are more likely to vote or participate in community organizations (College Board, 2010). In short, college graduates are wealthier, healthier, and more civically active. College pays dividends to both the individual and the society. The goal of this study is to paint a picture of Baltimore City Schools current activities on college access, enrollment, and completion. We hope to establish a baseline for future analyses and identify areas where additional research and information could inform City Schools concerning its graduates success with college access. The road to college includes many hurdles. Some of them can be readily anticipated, like having necessary financial resources, taking the SAT or ACT, and completing financial aid forms, but other barriers are less apparent. Core Findings: Local colleges and universities have disparate definitions of college readiness. Local institutions vary so greatly that students who are labeled college ready at one local college often will not be at another. This differential need for remediation has far-reaching implications for students in terms of the cost of college and time to graduation. There has been increased enrollment at 2-year colleges compared to 4-year even though it is clear that students who enroll in 2-year colleges are far less likely to complete degrees. Recent national statistics indicate that about 70% of high school graduates enroll in college right after graduation, and for students from low-income families enroll at the lower rate of 54% (National Center for Education Statistics, 2011). About 48% of Baltimore s graduates enrolled in college immediately after graduation. Over time, the number of Baltimore graduates who enroll in college rises: among the Class of 2008, 60.8% had enrolled by For the Class of 2004 who ever enrolled in college, 23% earned either a 2- or 4-year degree by v

8 The findings of this study and recent conversations with City Schools district leaders have suggested several areas in which targeted efforts would have the greatest impact: First, starting in elementary school, promote a college-going culture with high academic standards that would have far-reaching benefits for graduation and college success. Namely, students could identify possible future careers and their education requirements. Ideally, students would enter high school with aspirations about going to college, so that in middle school they should understand course sequencing and prerequisites to complete college admission requirements during high school. Further, parents and families must be engaged so that they are prepared to assist students in completing applications and Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) in time for college application season. Second, school leaders and teachers should provide students ongoing, systematic, and deliberate guidance toward a successful college application process. Counselors and knowledgeable adults can have the greatest impact if contact with students is continual throughout high school. Haphazard or delayed college selection is unlikely to result in increased enrollment in selective colleges or student commitment to college completion. Further, guidance needs to include conversations about funding (e.g., scholarships, student loans) for families early in the process. Third, given the sheer numbers of City Schools graduates who attend Baltimore City Community College (BCCC) and the Community College of Baltimore County (CCBC), some sort of mediation between City Schools and BCCC and CBCC regarding thresholds for credit-bearing courses seems sensible. All institutions would be well served by closer coordination between high school preparation and the entrance criteria for credit-bearing courses. Furthermore, local colleges might benefit from a closer scrutiny and standardization of admission and remediation requirements. At the very least, this would allow counselors in high schools to offer clear, accurate guidance to students on good-fit institutions. Fourth, City Schools currently pays for all students to take the Preliminary SAT (PSAT) to familiarize them with national standards for college admissions. It is an important way to prepare for the demands of the SAT. Moreover, taking the PSAT during the junior year, when it serves as the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (PSAT/NMSQT), would likely increase scholarship and recruiting opportunities for students. Moreover, the percent of students taking the test can serve as a leading indicator of interest in attending college. City Schools has made important strides in recent years to increase graduation rates. Ensuring that students are prepared, informed, motivated, and skilled to succeed in college is the natural next step. To do this rigorous instruction must be common and will require not only better teaching, but also better family outreach achieved through increased coordination between teachers, counselors, and parents. vi

9 A Descriptive Look at College Enrollment and Degree Completion of Baltimore City Graduates Rachel E. Durham Erik Westlund Background Earning a college degree improves a person's life outcomes in employment, income, health, and quality of life. Thus, it is important to track Baltimore City Schools graduates success in attending and completing college. In this study, we seek to summarize college enrollment and completion trends over the past several years. These data will not only serve as a baseline for comparison with future data, but also allow us to identify areas where additional research and information can inform City Schools efforts to create a college-going climate throughout all its elementary, middle and high schools. The Benefits of Educational Attainment College Graduates make more money. Economically, education serves a dual purpose: it helps one earn more and reduces one s risk of unemployment. According to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Statistical Abstract, the average person with a bachelor s degree earns almost twice as much as a high school graduate and nearly triple that of someone who did not finish high school. In 2010, the unemployment rate for people with bachelor s degrees was about onethird the rate for non-high school graduates and one-half the rate for high school graduates (see Table 1). Table National Unemployment Rate and Earnings by Educational Attainment Education level Unemployment rate Median weekly earnings Less than high school 14.9 $444 High school diploma 10.3 $626 Some college 9.2 $712 Associate s degree 7.0 $767 Bachelor s degree 5.4 $1,038 Master s degree 4.0 $1,272 Professional degree 2.4 $1,610 Doctoral degree 1.9 $1,550 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics,

10 College Graduates are less likely to be unemployed. It is instructive to look at the interaction between race and educational attainment. As seen in Table 2, employment prospects for African Americans are lower than for all other groups. However, unemployment rates drop for each credential earned. Even some college reduces the likelihood of unemployment, especially among African Americans. Table National Unemployment Rates by Race/Ethnicity and Educational Attainment White Afr Am Asian Hispanic Total Less than high school High school diploma Some college or associate s degree Bachelor s degree or higher Total Source: 2010 Census (population figures), 2011 Statistical Abstract (unemployment figures) College Graduates experience better health and life outcomes. Economic figures alone do not give a full picture of the importance of postsecondary education. College graduates report being happier and healthier than high school graduates or dropouts (College Board, 2010). Furthermore, college graduates are more likely to have health insurance; consequently, they seek regular or preventive health services more often and have lower medical bills. College graduates are also more likely to participate in civic life for example, they are more likely to vote or participate in community organizations (College Board, 2010). In short, college graduates are wealthier, healthier, and more civically active. College pays dividends to both the individual and the society. Barriers to College Access and Degree Completion Enrolling in college requires academic readiness and the completion of a complex set of preparative actions. First, admission to college requires students to meet rigorous academic entry requirements by completing challenging preparatory classes. In fact, successful college preparation begins well before high school: Students are greatly disadvantaged in the process if they do not enter grade 9 on track to complete college admissions requirements such as Algebra 2, and multiple years of foreign language and science. Furthermore, the well-positioned student must also have cultivated sophisticated cognitive (i.e., reading, writing, and math) and noncognitive abilities (e.g., time and conflict management skills, tenacity, sociability) that will allow him or her to thrive in the challenging academic environment of college (Roderick, Nagaoka, & Coca, 2009). In addition to being academically prepared for rigorous college-level work, students must complete many detailed tasks by specific deadlines, such as submitting transcripts, receiving recommendations, identifying sources of financial aid, and completing a FAFSA form. Successfully navigating this process without support from knowledgeable adults particularly 2

11 teachers, counselors, and parents is difficult. Thus, students without close relationships to these knowledgeable adults are at a serious disadvantage in making it to college. Research has shown that first generation college-goers face greater challenges than their peers with college-educated parents. Additionally, students from less wealthy families or minority families are less likely to enroll in college (College Board, 2010). As seen in Table 3, Baltimore has more minority-identified residents with lower incomes and less formal education than their suburban neighbors in Baltimore County, the rest of Maryland, and the U.S. Additionally, in Baltimore City, White residents over 25 years of age are three times more likely than African Americans to have finished college: 33% of Baltimore Whites completed bachelor s degrees, compared to only 10% of African Americans. This pattern is representative of an overall lag in educational attainment in Baltimore City (see Appendix A: Comparison of Educational Attainment for People Aged 25 Years and Older in the US, Maryland, Baltimore County). Table 3. Demographic Comparison of the USA, Maryland, Baltimore County and Baltimore City USA Maryland Baltimore County Baltimore City Population 281,421,906 5,296, , ,154 % White % Black Median family income White $53,356 $68,076 $62,660 $49,391 Black $33,255 $47,471 $50,471 $30,190 Percent below poverty line White Black Percent with bachelor s degree or higher (among population 25 years and over) White Black Educational Attainment (percent among population 25 years and over) No high school diploma High school diploma or higher Bachelor s degree or higher Source: U.S. Census, 2000 Degree completion is a further challenge, requiring students to negotiate a college campus and meet academic expectations with minimal supervision. In addition to academic challenges, first generation college-goers must continually negotiate financial obligations and an unfamiliar social environment. In the rest of this report, we present data to help readers understand the current status of students in Baltimore City Schools enrolling in college and completing degrees. 3

12 Methodology Research Questions The research questions addressed by our analysis are: How do local colleges define readiness for college? How many City Schools graduates enroll in college the fall immediately after graduation? How many City Schools graduates ever enroll in college? What does college enrollment among City Schools graduates look like by gender, receipt of special education services, and high school type? What types of postsecondary institutions do City Schools graduates attend? How many City Schools graduates complete postsecondary degrees? Data and Analysis This study is based upon data from multiple sources, ranging from local sources such as the Baltimore City Schools Office of Achievement and Accountability to national sources such as the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) and the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) (See Table 4). In some cases, we were able to cross-reference sources to construct richer data sets than we could obtain from any one source alone. This process also alerted us to many of the problems these data have, foremost of which is undercounting students (i.e., having no record that a student enrolled in and attended a college when he or she did both). For a more complete description of how data were assembled, see Appendix B: Data Sources and Collection Methods. For a more complete discussion of data processing and analysis techniques, see Appendix C: Data Processing and Methods of Analysis. We analyzed our data with the goal of providing a rich description of the college going process in Baltimore City Public Schools. No techniques were used to make statistical inferences about students (i.e., there are no generalizations from a sample to a larger population). In other words, our data represent the entire population of Baltimore City Public Schools: if we do not have an actual record of an event in a student s educational history, it is neither inferred nor reported. 4

13 Table 4. Data Sources Used in This Study Unit of Analysis Data Source(s) Use Student School School district State Nation National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Morgan State University (MSU) Baltimore City Public Schools Office of Achievement and Accountability Maryland State Department of Education (MSDE) Maryland State Department of Education (MSDE) Maryland State Department of Education (MSDE) U.S. Census National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) and Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) U.S. Census Identify college enrollment and degree completion. Represents 92% of U.S. students enrolled in higher education. Supplement NSC data, as Morgan State University has not always participated with NSC. These data do not distinguish fall versus spring enrollment, so we default to assuming enrollment occurred in the fall. Provide student graduation records. Provides demographic, graduation rate, and academic performance data on specific Baltimore City Public High Schools. Provides demographic, leaver graduation rate, and academic performance data on Baltimore City Public Schools and neighboring counties. Provides demographic, leaver graduation rate, and academic performance data on the state of Maryland. Provide demographic data on the state of Maryland and its cities and counties. Provides national data on educational attainment, high school completion, college enrollment, and degree completion. Provides demographic data on the United States. 5

14 Findings In the following sections, we present findings to our research questions. For consistency and ease of presentation, we present City Schools data for the Classes of 2008 to 2010 except when data from other recent years is substantively important, or contradicts an apparent trend in the data. How do local colleges define readiness for college? The generally accepted definition of a college ready student is someone who is ready and able to take college level courses at entrance without needing remediation (ACT, Inc., 2005; Conley, 2007). Yet, the standards used by colleges to determine student need for remediation are far from uniform. Most of Baltimore s nearby colleges determine a student s readiness for college on the basis of scores on the College Board s ACCUPLACER tests in writing, reading, and mathematics. Each college determines its own thresholds for remediation by content area. We surveyed those institutions at which City Schools graduates have most often enrolled to learn what ACCUPLACER scores would place students into college-bearing courses. We found that there is variation in cut scores between colleges (see Table 5). Table 5. College ACCUPLACER Cut Scores for Determining College Ready by College/University ACCUPLACER score^ 2-year Math Writing Reading Baltimore City Community College (BCCC) 63 (EA), 45 (CM) Community College of Baltimore County (CCBC) 70 (EA), 45 (CM) Anne Arundel Community College (AACC) 83 (EA), 45 (CM) year Coppin State University 108 (EA) - 86 Morgan State University Major dependent Towson University 109 (EA) - 80 University of Maryland Eastern Shores (UMES) 108 (EA), 63 (CM) EA Elementary Algebra; CM College Math ^ Lowest score a student can earn to be placed into a credit bearing course. In some cases, majors have different cut scores and the logic behind the application of the cut scores is more complicated than can be shown in this chart. This finding has important implications. First, students, administrators, and counselors seeking tangible guidance about what counts as college ready will not find a simple answer: the answer 6

15 is dependent on each institution s self-determined standards. Whether a student is college ready is contingent upon the college he or she chooses to attend. For example, a student with a score of 70 on the reading ACCUPLACER test will be required to take remediation at Anne Arundel Community College (AACC), yet can enroll in a credit-bearing course at Baltimore City Community College (BCCC) and Community College of Baltimore County (CCBC). A score of 70 on the Elementary Algebra assessment would mean college level math at BCCC and CCBC and remediation at AACC. The choice of college will impact the cost and time to complete any required remediation and then degree completion. These inconsistencies are both confusing and a serious potential barrier to degree completion(national Center for Education Statistics, 2009). How many City Schools graduates enroll in college the fall immediately after graduation? Longitudinal analysis of college enrollment rates must take into consideration high school graduation rates, which have been increasing in Baltimore since Generally, graduation rates increase as struggling students are given extra support to help them meet missing diploma requirements. However, such struggling students are generally less likely to enroll in college, or even be interested in continuing in school. Consequently, improving high school graduation rates typically reduces college enrollment rates by increasing the overall number and changing the composition of high school graduates. For a more detailed statistical treatment, see Appendix D: Graduation (Leaver Rate) and Fall College Enrollment for the Baltimore City Schools Graduating Classes of 2006 through Baltimore City Schools underwent this pattern: Between 2006 and 2010, the high school graduation rate calculated by the Maryland State Department of Education for City Schools increased more than 5 percentage points. At the same time, college enrollment rates increased by 2 percentage points (see Table 6). This has implications for interpreting the effects of dropout reduction programs like Great Kids Come Back (GKCB). The good news increased high school graduation rates is accompanied by what might be construed as bad news college enrollment rates holding steady or not increasing at a similar pace. Table 6. Number and Rate of Baltimore City Graduates and Fall College Enrollment for the Classes of 2006 through 2010 Class High School Graduates Fall College Enrollees Number Graduation Rate (Leaver) Number Percent , , , , , , , , , , Source: NSC/MSU data, received January 2011; Leaver rate from MSDE, mdreportcard.org 7

16 Recent national statistics indicate that about 70% of high school graduates enroll in college right after high school graduation, while 54% of low-income students do so (National Center for Education Statistics, 2011). On average, about 48% of Baltimore s recent graduating students enrolled in college immediately after high school graduation. How many City Schools graduates ever enroll in college? Not all Baltimore students in the featured cohorts went to college the fall after they graduated high school, but a majority eventually attended. The percentage of City Schools graduates from the classes of 2008 and 2009 who ever enrolled in higher education was over 10 percentage points higher than the percentage enrolling the fall after graduation (see Table 7). With the passing of each year, high school graduates have extended periods of opportunity to enroll in college. Thus, all else equal, earlier graduating classes (e.g., 2008) can be expected to have higher values than more recent ones (e.g., 2010), because students have had a longer span of months post-high school during which they could enroll in college. Consequently, one cannot make an apples to apples comparison of those ever enrolled across cohort years. Table 7. Number and Percent of Baltimore City Graduates Who Ever Enrolled in College and Enrolled the Fall After Graduation for the Classes of 2008 Through 2010 Enrolled Fall After Graduation Ever Enrolled Class N Number Percent Number Percent ,017 1, , ,279 2, , ,421 2, , Source: NSC/MSU data, received January 2011, Leaver Rate from MSDE, mdreportcard.org. As we consider the difference between enrolling in college immediately after high school graduation or later, we note that it does matter for various other outcomes when a student enrolls. As we report in later sections, the data indicate that students who enrolled later were less likely to complete a degree, even allowing a sufficient passage of time to render the comparison fair and meaningful. What does college enrollment among City Schools graduates look like by gender, receipt of special education services, and high school type? Gender Consistent with national trends in college enrollment, female City Schools graduates enroll at higher rates than males. Over the last three graduation cohorts, however, this gap has narrowed 8

17 from 11.2 percentage points for the Class of 2008, to 8.8 for the Class of 2009, to 6.9 percentage points for the Class of 2010 (see Figure 1). Figure 1. The percent of male and female high school graduates enrolled in college the fall after high school graduation. 100 Class of 2008 (N=4017) Class of 2009 (N=4279) 75 Class of 2010 (N=4421) Male Female Special Education Services The percentage of students in Baltimore City receiving special education services is higher than what is observed for its neighbor, Baltimore County, for the state of Maryland, or for the nation. In fact, fully one-sixth of Baltimore public high school students receive special education services (see Table 8). Among City Schools graduates from the Classes of who received special education services, between 25% and 28% enrolled in college in the fall after graduation (see Figure 2). Table 8. Percentage of Students Receiving Special Education Services in the USA, Maryland, Baltimore County, and Baltimore City USA Maryland Baltimore County unavailable Baltimore City Source: Profile of Undergraduates in U.S. Postsecondary Education Institutions: , National Center for Education Statistics, 2006 (USA); MSDE, mdreportcard.org (Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore City) National data is of all students receiving special education services. Maryland data is of only high school students. 9

18 Figure 2. The percent of high school graduates who received special education services in high school who enrolled in college the fall after high school graduation Class of 2008 Sp Ed Graduates (N=386) Class of 2009 Sp Ed Graduates (N=425) Class of 2010 Sp Ed Graduates (N=457) High School Type There are several types of public high schools in Baltimore City (See Appendix E: Baltimore City Schools Classification By Year for a complete list of high schools and their categorizations): Traditional schools are high schools with no special entrance criteria, featuring a standard comprehensive curriculum. Historically, these schools served the local neighborhoods, but City Schools currently allows most students to choose where they enroll in high school. Entrance criteria schools customarily serve students from the entire city and generally feature a comprehensive curriculum. However, to be accepted, students must meet certain thresholds on the grade 7 Maryland State Assessment (MSA), have a high attendance rate in grade 8, and have competitive middle school grade averages in English, math and science. Career-Tech schools have a curriculum focused around technology; they seek to prepare students for further education and/or careers in technological fields. These schools also have some academic entrance requirements. Charter, Innovation, and Transformation (CIT) schools are externally operated schools without entrance criteria. They often have unique curricula and organizational structure and are not bound to all of the same rules as traditional schools. However, they must meet all the same accountability measures as other schools. o Charter schools are public schools of choice. Each school has a specific contract with the district that details its curriculum, goals, and assessment methods. o Innovation schools are small, independent schools operated by a non-profit governing board that oversees the school s performance. 10

19 o Transformation schools serve grades six through twelve (instead of the traditional nine through twelve) and feature a specific theme of study. Their curricula are focused around college, career, or alternative programming. Alternative/Special Education schools serve students with special needs, with students assigned by the Office of Student Placement. Entrance criteria schools have the largest percentages of students enrolling in higher education right after high school, as would be expected. Graduates of traditional high schools enrolled at the lowest rate, with the exception of graduates from schools primarily serving students with special needs. Figure 3. Percentage of Baltimore City graduates enrolled in college in the fall following high school graduation by high school type for the Classes of 2008 through Class of 2008 (N=4017) Class of 2009 (N=4279) Class of 2010 (N=4421) TradiFonal Entrance Criteria Career- Tech Chart/Innov/Trans (CIT) AlternaFve/Sp Ed The pattern of enrollment among graduates of career-tech high schools was fairly stable. However, the pattern of college enrollment across graduating cohorts of CIT high schools was more variable. Notably, in 2008 and 2009, CIT graduates enrolled in college at a higher rate than graduates of career-tech schools, but for the Class of 2010, the rate was almost equal to that of career-tech graduates. The rates of college enrollment for the CIT schools are less stable, in part because some were relatively new schools and were graduating their inaugural classes, while others have closed and left the category. Figure 4 provides a clearer picture of the enrollment rates for the CIT schools and compares their graduates enrollment to traditional high school graduates separately for the most recent class. Graduates of charter high schools enrolled in college immediately after high school at a rate of 53.2%, lower than entrance criteria schools, but higher than all other types. Graduates of transformation high schools enrolled in college at a higher rate (41.5%) than graduates of traditional high schools (37.5%), but the rate for graduates of Innovation schools (35.0%) was not much different from that for graduates of Traditional high 11

20 schools. However, the reader should note that the Innovation category included only two high schools with graduates in Figure 4. Percent of high school graduates enrolled in college in the fall after high school graduation by high school subtype for the Class of TradiFonal (no entrance criteria) (N=1953) TransformaFon (N=130) InnovaFon (N=143) Charter (N=158) What types of postsecondary institutions do City Schools graduates attend? 2-year versus 4-year college enrollment Historically, the majority of Baltimore City Schools graduates who enrolled in college the fall after high school attended 4-year universities. In recent years this trend has reversed. Among the Class of 2006, 60.8% of graduates enrolling in the fall attended 4-year colleges. By 2009, 53% of those enrolling in the fall after high school went to 4-year schools (as seen in Figure 5). By 2010, this percentage was 48.5%, marking the first time among recent cohorts that more graduates enrolled at 2-year than 4-year colleges. Figure 5. The percent of students enrolled in college the fall after graduation who enrolled at 4-year or 2-year institutions. 100% 75% 50% 25% Year 4- Year 0% Class of 2008 (N=1921) Class of 2009 (N=2075) Class of 2010 (N=2063) 12

21 Selectivity of colleges at which students enroll Trends in the Barron s selectivity ratings of the 4-year colleges at which City Schools graduates enrolled in the fall after high school can be seen in Figure 6 (Barron's, National Center for Education Statistics, 2009). The majority of graduates who enrolled in a 4-year college the fall after graduation attended a somewhat selective college, or about three-fifths of all enrollees. About one-fifth attended very selective or selective 4-year schools. The rest enrolled in 4-year colleges that were not selective. Figure 6. Percent of students enrolled in the fall following graduation at 4-year colleges by selectivity ratings for the Classes of 2008 through Class of 2008 (N=1128) Class of 2009 (N=1100) Class of 2010 (N=1001) Very SelecFve SelecFve Somewhat SelecFve Not SelecFve Other Between the Classes of 2008 through 2010, the number and proportion of students attending very selective and selective 4-year colleges was fairly stable, while enrollment at non-selective 4-year colleges increased slightly. There has been no change at all in those attending somewhat selective colleges. Why and how students arrive at their college choice is important, especially because college selectivity and degree completion are closely related. Students who attend more selective colleges are more likely to complete degrees than students who attend less selective colleges. More important, however, is that students with similar academic and social backgrounds are more likely to succeed at selective institutions (i.e., controlling for parental education, family income, SAT scores, class rank, and other variables that correlate with academic success) (Alon & Tienda, 2005; Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009; Roderick, Coca, & Nagaoka, 2011). In other words, even when controlling for propensity to succeed using established predictors of academic success, otherwise equal students are more likely to graduate from more selective schools than from nonselective schools. Thus, City Schools graduates who opt for less selective schools than they are capable of attending are putting themselves at a higher risk of not completing a degree. We cannot yet determine whether the most academically prepared students 13

22 are choosing to attend the most selective colleges, nor can we know whether less academically prepared students are opting for 2-year colleges over 4-year colleges. Further research is needed to uncover the motivations driving students college choices. See Appendix F: Most Frequently Enrolled Institutions of Higher Education Attended by City Schools Students from the Class of 2004 for a list of local colleges by selectivity, as well as the criteria by which colleges selectivity ratings are based. Out-of-State and HBCU Enrollment Among the Classes 2008 to 2010, most students attended local colleges, with about one-quarter attending Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU). A smaller number opted for outof-state postsecondary institutions (see Figure 7). Figure 7. Percent of City Schools graduates enrolled in Historically Black Colleges and Universities and out of state colleges, Class of 2008 (N=1921) Class of 2009 (N=2075) Class of 2010 (N=2063) Enrolled in HBCU Enrolled Outside Maryland Between 2008 and 2010, there was a 5.9 percentage point decrease in the proportion of City Schools graduates who enrolled at an HBCU. Part of this decrease may be explained by the decreased enrollment at 4-year colleges, since the vast majority of HBCUs are 4-year institutions. Notably, enrollment at colleges outside of Maryland did not change appreciably. How many City Schools graduates complete postsecondary degrees? Among all Baltimore Graduates Among all Baltimore City Schools high school graduates from the Class of 2004, 14.4% went on to earn a degree. Of only those graduates who ever enrolled in college, 23.0% earned a degree (see Figure 8). Four-year degrees were earned at a higher rate than 2-year degrees. 14

23 Figure 8. Percent of students completing degree (2- and 4-year degrees) for the Class of 2004 for all City Schools graduates and those who ever enrolled in college Year Degree 2- Year Degree Class of 2004 (All Graduates, N=3603) Among Students Who Enrolled in Postsecondary Education Increased interest in degree completion has led to public releases of national college degree completion rates. These data can be found in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) and are based upon the number of enrolled students from an entering freshman cohort who earn a 4-year degree within six years or a 2-year degree within three years (National Center for Education Statistics, ). Below, we present IPEDS reported rates as points of reference, but not for absolute comparison. These national reports are not comparable to what we present for Baltimore high school graduates since the IPEDS data follow cohorts of freshmen who enrolled full time. Using data on Baltimore graduates degree completion, we calculated degree completion rates for the Class of 2004, allowing six years for any degree to have been granted. However, we are not able to separate students enrolled in college full-time from those enrolled part-time, so our reported rates of degree completion among City Schools graduates are more conservative than if we only considered full-time enrollees. 1 Figure 9. Percent of students completing 2- and 4-year degrees for the Class of 2004 by time of enrollment Year Degree Class of 2004 (Ever Enrolled in College, N=2266) 2- Year Degree Class of 2004 (Fall Class of 2004 (Enrolled, Enrollees only, N=1593) but not in the fall, N=673) 1 One study using the Beginning s Survey of 1990 estimated the difference in graduation rates for part-time students to be between 6 and 16 percentage points lower for than for full-time students. 15

24 Among the Class of 2004, 29.4% of students who enrolled the next fall earned a degree, and students who enrolled later finished degrees at the lower rate of 7.8%. Overall, graduates earned more 4-year than 2-year degrees. We cannot make causal claims about early enrollment causing higher rates of degree completion among Baltimore City graduates. The type of student who enrolls in college immediately after graduation is likely to be different than the type of student who enrolls later. National data support this assertion: Students who delayed college enrollment in the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) were more likely to be socioeconomically disadvantaged (e.g., have lower family incomes) and less academically prepared (e.g., had dropped out of high school, had lower SAT scores) than those who enrolled in college immediately after graduating high school (Jacobs & King, 2002; Bozick & DeLuca, 2004). It is not surprising, then, that such students are less likely to graduate from college than their more advantaged peers. Yet, it is still plausible that becoming disconnected from academic life works against one s ability to succeed in academic institutions, over and above any influences of socioeconomic status or prior academic readiness. Students who delayed enrollment in the NELS:88 study, even when controlling for socioeconomic and academic factors, were 64% less likely to graduate college (Bozick & DeLuca, 2004). This figure is consonant with the disparity found in our study. Further research is necessary to disentangle precisely how much delayed enrollment actually contributes to the disparity in degree completion rates among City Schools graduates. Two-year colleges Two-year colleges appeal to prospective students for several reasons: They are cheaper than 4- year colleges (in 2010, the average annual tuition at public 2-year American colleges was $2,713, compared to $7,605 at public 4-year colleges and $27,293 at private 4-year colleges), they do not have demanding admission criteria, they are often close to home, and they generally require less of a time commitment part-time study is normal and full-time students can finish in two years (College Board, 2010). These appeals have certainly attracted Baltimore City School graduates. Financial considerations are especially salient considering the harsh economic climate of recent years and relatively high levels of poverty among Baltimore families. Yet, enrolling in a 2-year community college instead of a 4-year university is associated with a lower likelihood of earning a degree. Among all City Schools graduates from Class of 2004 who started at a 2- year college, only 5.8% had earned a degree by Table 9 shows the total number of graduates from the Class of 2004 who ever enrolled or completed a degree at the listed institution. Baltimore graduates completed degrees from Anne Arundel Community College (AACC) at about half the rate as among all AACC freshmen. Baltimore graduates completed degrees from BCCC at a rate close that for all BCCC full-time freshmen, which may reflect the fact that City Schools graduates represent a substantial proportion of the student body. City Schools graduates received degrees from CCBC at about half the college s overall freshmen completion rate. Nationally, 27.8% of full-time freshmen 16

25 who entered public 2-year institutions in 2004 earned a degree within three years (National Center for Education Statistics, 2009). Table 9. Number and Percent of Baltimore City Schools Graduates Ever Enrolling and Completing a 2-Year Degree by Fall 2010 for the Class of 2004, by Institution 2-Year Postsecondary Institutions Ever Enrolled Earned Degree Percent Earning Degree IPEDS Completion Rate Among All Full-time Freshmen Entering in 2004^ Anne Arundel Community College Baltimore City Community College Community College of Baltimore County ITT Technical Institute Not reported Total Enrollments ± 1, Total Students* 1, ± A student may enroll at multiple institutions. *All 2-year institutions attended by Baltimore graduates are included in these totals. ^The IPEDS rates for all freshmen are provided for context. It reports the percentage of all entering full-time students entering in 2004 who completed their 2-year degree program within 3 years at that same school. Source: NSC/MSU data, received January 2011 (City Schools data); Freshman graduation rate from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, 2010; National Center for Education Statistics, 2009 (national data). The relatively low overall degree completion rate among the Class of 2004 (5.8%) may be at least partially explained by the fact that among Baltimore s recent graduating cohorts, more graduates began their college careers at BCCC than at any other college. Traditionally, the majority of entering students at BCCC are likely to be placed into remedial (non-credit-bearing) classes (Abell, 2002; and Abell, March 2002). Affected graduates will enter credit-bearing coursework later than their counterparts at institutions with more relaxed placement standards. Another possibility is that local colleges may be unequipped to provide the necessary support, financial and academic, for socioeconomically disadvantaged or academically underprepared students. A third possibility is that unexpected circumstances often require such students to reduce their enrollment to part-time or to leave college entirely. Many other explanations are possible. Identifying the precise causes of low degree completion in Baltimore, and the relative importance of these causes, is an important task that requires more research. 17

26 Four-year colleges and universities Among Class of 2004 graduates who ever enrolled in a 4-year college, overall, 34.4% earned degrees after six years. In additional analyses not shown, we found that the completion rate was even higher among graduates who began their postsecondary studies in the fall after graduation at a 4-year school, at 42.4%. Table 10 shows the colleges where at least five City School graduates enrolled. The table lists the number of students who ever enrolled and received a 4- year degree from the listed institution. Coppin State enrolled the most City Schools graduates from the Class of 2004 who attended a 4- year college; less than one-fifth of those enrollees later completed a 4-year degree at Coppin State (17.3%). Morgan State enrolled almost as many City Schools graduates, and slightly more than one-fifth completed degrees from Morgan (21.0%). Graduates who enrolled in Hood College, Washington College, and Maryland Institute College of Art completed 4-year degrees at the highest rate (80.0%), although only a handful of students enrolled at these schools. Class of 2004 enrollees at University of Phoenix completed degrees at the lowest rate (3.3%). Nationally, 57.3% of first-time students who started as full-time degree seeking students who entered a 4- year college in 2001 finished at that same school within six years (National Center for Education Statistics, 2009). It is important to note that City Schools graduates from the Class of 2004 who enrolled at the most selective universities were significantly more likely to graduate with a degree: at the selective and very selective universities, 43.9% of enrollees eventually earned a 4-year degree. Among those City Schools graduates who started at somewhat selective and not selective 4-year universities, less than a quarter earned a 4-year degree (22.6%). These data would suggest that it seems wise for students, parents and counselors to favor attendance at the most selective school a student can attend (Roderick, Coca, & Nagaoka, 2011; Bowen, Chingos, & McPherson, 2009). 18