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1 Scale issues for atmospheric Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre modelling at urban scale Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres du masque Valéry MASSON Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques 15 November 2017 ECMWF Workshop Copyright Météo-France 1
2 Cities & Climate 2.7% of land areas 55% of world population 80% of GDP (gross domestic product) 70% of Green-House Gases emissions IPCC synthesis report (2014): In urban areas climate change is projected to increase risks for people, assets, economies and ecosystems, including risks from heat stress, storms and extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, water scarcity, sea level rise and storm surges (very high confidence) ) 1st. december 2015
3 Cities & Climate Several actions at international scale World Weather Research Programme has 4 objectives, 2 related to urban: 1. High Impact Weather and its socioeconomic effect in the context of global change Urban floods, Heat & Pollution in megacities, 2.Urbanization: Research & services for megacities and large urban complexes Source: Baklanov, WMO, (2015) Source: 1st december 2015
4 Cities & Climate Several actions at international scale World Weather Research Programme has 4 objectives, 2 related to urban: 1. High Impact Weather and its socioeconomic effect in the context of global change Urban floods, Heat & Pollution in megacities, 2.Urbanizarion: Research & services for megacities and large urban complexes 1st december 2015 scientific issues: [ ] high-resolution modelling, Grey zone, [ ] Source: Baklanov, WMO, (2015) Source:
5 Scale issues for modelling at urban scale 1) Mesoscale-impacts on thunderstorms 2) Local-scale impacts: the Urban Heat Island 3) Modelling 4) Description of the cities for models: the «LCZ» 5) Which scale for adaptation strategies? ECMWF Workshop
6 Scale issues for modelling at urban scale 1) Mesoscale-impacts on thunderstorms 2) Local-scale impacts: the Urban Heat Island 3) Modelling 4) Description of the cities for models: the «LCZ» 5) Which scale for adaptation strategies? ECMWF Workshop
7 Source: Bornstein and Leroy (1985) 1st december 2015 Meso-scale Impacts on Thunderstorms 2 mains urban effects Analysis of 2 summers of convection above NYC & enhancement
8 Meso-scale Impacts on Thunderstorms: splitting The splitting effect is mainly due to the increased roughness. Such effects are mostly studied in USA and China This may be because megacities are prominent obstacles in flat regions Source: Niyogi et al, st december 2015 Observed radar reflectivity (dbz) from OKC radar
9 Meso-scale Impacts on Thunderstorms: enhancement Source: WMO website 1st december 2015
10 Source: Bélair et al, st december 2015 Meso-scale Impacts on Thunderstorms: enhancement Cas study of 26 August 2011 of flash flood on Tokyo (TOMACS campaign) Canadian model GEM at 250m with urban scheme Radar observations without urban scheme
11 Meso-scale Impacts on Thunderstorms: enhancement Cas study of 26 August 2011 of flash flood on Tokyo (TOMACS campaign) Canadian model GEM at 250m with urban scheme Radar observations Source: Bélair et al, 2015 ember st december 2015 GEM at 2.5km GEM at 1km
12 Scale issues for modelling at urban scale 1) Mesoscale-impacts on thunderstorms 2) Local-scale impacts: the Urban Heat Island 3) Modelling 4) Description of the cities for models: the «LCZ» 5) Which scale for adaptation strategies? ECMWF Workshop
13 Urban Heat Island (UHI) One summer night in Toulouse (using measurements from 20 met stations) 14 C 17 C 20 C Source: J. Hidalgo 1st december 2015 Copyright Météo-France
14 Modification of the Surface Energy Balance Source: Nunez & Oke, 1976
15 Modification of the Surface Energy Balance 1st december 2015
16 Modification of the Surface Energy Balance Surface Energy Balance, Singapore Source: Roth et al, st december 2015 Copyright Météo-France
17 Scale issues for modelling at urban scale 1) Mesoscale-impacts on thunderstorms 2) Local-scale impacts: the Urban Heat Island 3) Modelling 4) Description of the cities for models: the «LCZ» 5) Which scale for adaptation strategies? ECMWF Workshop
18 1st december 2015 Copyright Météo-France The old modelling way: rocks!
19 1st december 2015 The Urban Canopy Models (UCM) Oke et al (2017), Krayenoff (2017)
20 1st december 2015 The Urban Canopy Models (UCM) Oke et al (2017), Krayenoff (2017)
21 Modelling the Surface Energy Balance: TEB The Town Energy Balance (TEB) model Key physical processes of urban climate 3D surface (street canyon) Radiative exchanges between walls & roads Heat Fluxes, Water & Snow, Friction Allows simulation of : Impact on Boundary Layer Street micro-climate Urban Heat Island Coupled in many meteorological models
22 Modelling the Surface Energy Balance: TEB 1) Building Energy Module Wintertime building s energy consumption in Toulouse, France Energy consumption of buildings (Bueno et al 2012, Pigeon et al 2014, Schoetter et al 2017)
23 Lemonsu et al 2012, De Munck et al 2013, Redon et al 2017 Modelling the Surface Energy Balance: TEB 1) Building Energy Module Validation on Basel (BUBBLE experiment) Energy consumption of buildings 2) Surface Boundary Layer scheme 3) Three types of Urban vegetation Gardens, Street trees, green roofs Hamdi and Masson 2008
24 Modelling the Surface Energy Balance: TEB 4) Exemple of applications CO2 fluxes in cities Simulated Buildings + vegetation CO2 fluxes wintertime, 2005 (TEB) (Goret et al 2018 in prep.)
25 Modelling the Surface Energy Balance: TEB UHI simulation in Toulouse (France) MesoNH model, 250m of resolution average UHI on 2004 summer Cloudy days Sunny days Source: R. Schoetter
26 Scale issues for modelling at urban scale 1) Mesoscale-impacts on thunderstorms 2) Local-scale impacts: the Urban Heat Island 3) Modelling 4) Description of the cities for models: the «LCZ» 5) Which scale for adaptation strategies? ECMWF Workshop
27 Description of cities: the «Local Climate Zones» A typology : -recognized by the Urban Climate community -10 urban classes -Link with atmospheric models being developed From: Steward and Oke (2012) Tombouctou,Mali
28 Tombouctou,Mali World Urban Database initiative A methodology to map cities: -Using satellite images -100m of resolution -Produces LCZ maps by local experts -Approx. 100 cities
29 1st december 2015 From Buildings data, e.g. Open Street Map Determination of model urban parameters from building s databases Paris Moscow LCZ from French Building s Database Source: Hidalgo et al (2017) Urban parameters from OSM Source: Samsonov et al (2015)
30 Architecture varies from one location to another At world scale ) Seattle Copenhagen Architecture for mid-rise buildings Andalousia Shanghai Scale issues in building s description Quito, Equador Tombouctou,Mali
31 Architecture varies from one location to another At world scale ) Seattle Architecture for houses Shanghai Copenhagen Andalousia Scale issues in building s description Quito, Equador Tombouctou,Mali
32 Scale issues for modelling at urban scale 1) Mesoscale-impacts on thunderstorms 2) Local-scale impacts: the Urban Heat Island 3) Modelling 4) Description of the cities for models: the «LCZ» 5) Which scale for adaptation strategies? ECMWF Workshop
33 What scale urban planners wish In order to do the link with urban planners and stake holders The pertinent spatial scale is City of Nantes
34 What scale urban planners wish In order to do the link with urban planners and stake holders The pertinent spatial scale is the urban block!!! City of Nantes
35 Adaptation of cities to climate change In 2100, air-conditioning will probably be necessary Air-conditioning
36 1st december 2015 Adaptation of cities to climate change In 2100, air-conditioning will probably be necessary Air conditioning increases heat outside Needs even more cooling! Impacts people without access to air-conditioning Air-conditioning Température nocturne ( C) C Without cooling With projected air-conditioning (by 2030) Source : de Munck et al 2013
37 1st december 2015 Adaptation of cities to climate change In 2100, air-conditioning will probably be necessary But one can reduce its use! Air-conditioning Heat wave Emergency practices Buildings renovation Urban Vegetation, water ressources Levers that combine mitigation and adaptation Urban planning
38 1st december 2015 Adaptation of cities to climate change In 2100, air-conditioning will probably be necessary But one can reduce its use! Air-conditioning Heat wave Emergency practices Evolution of behaviours : very efficient Buildings renovation Urban Vegetation, water ressources Levers that combine mitigation and adaptation Comportements et usages Urban planning
39 1st december 2015 Urban vegetation Green roofs contribute to building insulation Ground vegetation and trees are efficient to cool the air Variation de température Variation of temperature caused by an increase of 50% of ground vegetation in available spaces (car parks, sidewalks, places,...) Source : de Munck 2015
40 The countryside can cool the city Grand Paris (Groupe Descartes) Source : Yves Lion et coll ~ 4 C Scenario: 2030 Local vegetable farming around the city Short supply chains & food governance Cooling of 2 to 3 C ~ 2 C
41 Urban Climate Modelling only starting 1 month 3km-resolution simulation in present and future climate in Japan August Tmin 2000s August Tmin 2070s Need of downscalling methods Kusaka et al st december 2015
42 Urban Climate Modelling only starting 1 month 3km-resolution simulation in present and future climate in Japan Brussels Climate simulation at 4km August Tmin 2000s Downscalling at 1km August Tmin 2070s Kusaka et al st december 2015 Hamdi et al, 2014
43 Conclusions 1) Urban scale is meteorologically is at least in the grey 2) Specific processes and impacts 3) The city actors want very fine scale even for weather forecast! ECMWF Workshop
44 Urban Weather Forecast Weather Forecast during the PAN-American games (Toronto 2015) Simulations at 250m of resolution Source: Leroyer et al 2015
45 Urban Weather Forecast Forecast during the PAN-American games (Toronto 2015) Source: Leroyer et al 2015
46 ECMWF Workshop Thank You
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