NOVEMBER 2015 UPDATE

Transcription

1 NOVEMBER 2015 UPDATE 1

2 Started Sept 2010, fourth Storm since Nov 1998 history of per share growth in prod n & asset value MM shares MM options, TSX-V symbol SRX management, Board ownership 13% (15% FD) Market cap $480 MM ($4.00/sh) Q3/15 debt $40 MM (1.3 X funds flow), bank line $140 MM Focused on developing Montney at Umbach in NE BC large land position with multi-year drilling inventory liquids rich natural gas (37 bbls/mmcf Q3/15) Significant growth on per share basis ,980 Boe/d Q3/15 9,650 Boe/d (+27% per share vs Q3/14) INTRODUCTION 2

3 MAJOR AREAS Umbach Montney 107,000 net acres 9,330 Boe/d* Horn River Basin 78,000 net acres 140 Boe/d* large shale gas resource in HRB, needs higher nat gas price growth driven by developing Montney at Umbach (liquids rich nat gas) *Q3/15 production 3

4 CORPORATE PRODUCTION prod n capability >15,000 boe/d; inventory of 7 hz s (5 completed) plus 3,900 boe/d shut-in 4

5 UMBACH AREA (North East British Columbia) Montney liquids rich gas 153 net sections 107,000 net acres 1,200 1,300 btu/scf Q3/15 9,330 Boe/d NGL 37 bbls/mmcf ~60% pentanes + condensate Drill hz in days vertical depth 1,550 metres length 1,100 1,500 metres Hz well F&D $5/Boe $4.9 MM drill, complete, tie-in with fracs 2014 actual $4.9 MM, 19 fracs SRX mgmt est 6.3 Bcf raw InSite P ult Bcf raw 1% H 2 S in gas at Umbach, processed at McMahon or Stoddart sour gas plants (65 mmcf/d firm capacity) Montney producing hz s in red 5

6 UMBACH LANDS most of Storm s lands in higher productivity sweet spot - reservoir quality is important in Montney! shallow depth with low drill & complete cost 153 net sections (166 gross) 107,000 net acres Storm s cost to date for land is $2,600/ha or $1,040/acre $33 MM acquire land + farm-in hz $79 MM Yoho ($88 MM - $9 MM prod n) $112 MM 6

7 UMBACH ACTIVITY majority of activity focused on development (cash flow growth), some step-outs to expand delineated area 2014 hz s 2015 hz s 2016 hz s Inventory of 7 hz s 39 hz s drilled 32 hz s producing Field compression 82 mmcf/d Q3/15 prod n was 49 mmf/d raw Field compression to 117 mmcf/d May/16 Op cost declines to ~$6.75/boe Q4/15 ($7.80/boe Q1-Q3/15) prod n growth, SWD well, processing deals, fuel gas unit 7

8 UMBACH HORIZONTAL WELL PERFORMANCE 8

9 UMBACH HORIZONTAL WELLS 9

10 UMBACH HORIZONTAL WELL OP DAY RATES 10

11 UMBACH HORIZONTAL WELL LENGTHS 11

12 UMBACH HZ COSTS completion cost per stage down ~15% drill compl fracs length 2013 $2,180 K $2,450 K 17 1,170 m 2014 $2,080 K $2,500 K 19 1,205 m 2015 $2,200 K $2,390 K 22 1,420 m 12

13 UMBACH SOUTH HZ ECONOMICS full cycle economics: infrastructure +$1,110 K per hz ($32 MM for 70 mmcf/d facility for 37 hz s) F&D: $5.30/boe ROR: 27% Payout: 2.5 yrs PV15: $2.0 MM ROR 19% at AECO $2.50/GJ, BC Stn 2 $1.90/GJ, and WTI $48/bbl 13

14 UMBACH LANDS DELINEATED TO DATE Productivity proven on 1/3 of lands to date 50.6 net sections 202 net hz locations, 33.4 net hz s drilled ~170 net hz s to drill 2P reserves on 17% of lands 25.5 net sections upper Montney only 73.4 net 2P hz drills Upper Montney productive across Storm s lands; encouraging recent results on adjacent lands productivity and condensate rates vary, still learning lower Montney also productive 14

15 FINANCIAL RESULTS ~60% of NGL is condensate + pentane Q3/15 vs Q3/14 Boe/d +27% per share NGL +47% Q2 Q3/15 prod n reduced by downtime 15

16 FINANCIAL RESULTS growth from Umbach Montney is reflected in financial results Q3/15 vs Q3/14 funds flow -32%, prod n +35% revenue/boe -52% Q3/15 vs Q3/14 cash costs -19% 16

17 GUIDANCE prod n Q4/15 depends on BC Stn 2 price can reduce 2016 capex to $55 MM and maintain 14,000 boe/d 17

18 NATURAL GAS PRICE DIFFERENTIAL IN BC BC Stn 2 diff widening since 2014 with growth onto Spectra pipeline system and larger drop in 2015 from TCPL constraints reducing takeaway from BC 18

19 NATURAL GAS FLOWS ON SPECTRA SYSTEM recent data showing no improvement in deliveries onto TCPL 19

20 HEDGING, PROCESSING, & TRANSPORTATION Hedging up to 50% current prod n to support growth Q4/15: 28.5 mmcf/d AECO $4.20/mcf ($3.36/GJ) 2016: 17 mmcf/d AECO $3.72/mcf ($2.98/GJ) 500 bpd WTI $77Cdn/bbl Firm processing 65 mmcf/d 50 mmcf/d at McMahon, 15 mmcf/d at Stoddart Firm transport 67 mmcf/d in 2016, to 98 mmcf/d in Alliance 42 mmcf/d 47 mmcf/d 51 mmcf/d Alliance IT (18% in 2014) 8 mmcf/d 9 mmcf/d 10 mmcf/d Spectra & TCPL 9 mmcf/d 23 mmcf/d 37 mmcf/d marketing arrangements 8 mmcf/d approx 13,600 Boe/d in 2016 remainder (growth) sold at BC Stn 2 spot covered by firm transport 45 mmcf/d AECO -$0.56/GJ (price at McMahon, net transport) mmcf/d Chicago -$1.39/GJ (price at McMahon, net transport) 20

21 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Shutting in prod n since July due to poor nat gas price (pipeline constraints reducing takeaway from BC) when BC Stn 2 below ~$1.50/GJ, shutting in unhedged volumes Can reduce 2016 capex to $55 mm and maintain 14,000 boe/d (+35% from 2015 avg) with ~95% covered by firm transport and not exposed to BC Stn 2 price incremental or growth sold at BC Stn 2 daily spot price Operations capex for 2015 reduced to $92 MM from $105 MM (service costs down, deferred 2 hz drills to 2016) Op cost below $7.25/boe Q4/15 from $9.33/boe in 2014 Working towards decision to build an owned/operated gas plant that would reduce op costs, increase NGL recovery 21

22 SUMMARY Montney at Umbach offers competitive advantages with lower hz cost and NGL increasing revenue Converting Montney resource into prod n & cash flow large land position, multi-year inventory, 170 hz drills on 1/3 lands Operationally, going well with hz rates up and costs down executing on plan to expand infrastructure at Umbach, transportation commitments reduce exposure to BC Stn 2 price in 2016 Accelerating growth into 2016 but, if BC Stn 2 price is poor, can reduce capex to $55 MM and maintain 14,000 Boe/d supported by forward strip pricing (hz ROR 38%), strong balance sheet Strong balance sheet provides cushion to weak prices Q3/15 debt $40 MM, bank line $140 MM 22

23 STORM RESOURCES LTD. CONTACT INFO For further information please contact: Brian Lavergne, President and Chief Executive Officer Donald McLean, Chief Financial Officer Carol Knudsen, Manager Corporate Affairs Address: #200, th Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 3G4 Phone: (403) Fax: (403) Website: 23

24 Discovered Petroleum Initially in Place ( DPIIP ) is defined in the COGEH handbook as the quantity of hydrocarbons that is estimated to be in place within a known accumulation. Discovered Petroleum Initially in Place is divided into recoverable and unrecoverable, with the estimated future recoverable amount classified as production, reserves and contingent resources. No certainty can be offered that it will be economically viable or technically feasible to produce any portion of this Discovered Petroleum Initially in Place except for those amounts identified as proved or probable reserves. DPIIP does not represent oil and gas reserves. Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters, or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project at an early stage of development. Estimates of contingent resources described herein are estimates only; the actual resources may be higher or lower than those calculated in the independent evaluation. There is no certainty that the resources described in the evaluation will be commercially produced. Boe Presentation - for the purpose of calculating unit revenues and costs, natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent ( Boe ) using six thousand cubic feet ( Mcf ) of natural gas equal to one barrel of oil unless otherwise stated. Barrels of oil equivalent ( Boe ) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A Boe conversion ratio of six Mcf to one barrel ( bbl ) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. All Boe measurements and conversions in this report are derived by converting natural gas to oil in the ratio of six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. Forward-Looking Information - certain information set forth in this presentation, including management s assessment of Storm s future plans and operations, contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current beliefs and expectations based on the information available at the time the applicable assumptions were made. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond the Company s control, including the material risks described in Storm s Annual Information Form dated March 31, 2015 and Management s Discussion and Analysis for the year ending December 31, 2014 under Risk Assessment, the effect of general economic conditions, industry conditions, volatility of commodity prices, currency fluctuations, imprecision of reserve estimates, environmental risks, competition from other industry participants, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources. Readers are advised that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. Storm s actual results, performance or achievement, could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. Storm disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under securities law. 24

25 APPENDIX

26 2015 forecast prod n +40% per share year over year 2016 Guidance 2015 Guidance GUIDANCE 2014 Actual Annual Average Boe/d Q4 Production Boe/d 16,000 18,000 20,000 21,000 10,000 11,000 10,000 12,000 6,980 10,173 AECO BC STN 2 Edmonton light oil $2.50/GJ $1.90/GJ $57/bbl $2.60/GJ $1.87/GJ $58/bbl $4.27/GJ $3.90/GJ $95/bbl Operating Cost $ $7.50/Boe $ $8.00/Boe $9.33/Boe Royalty (% prod n revenue) Cash G&A (000 s) 7% - 8% $5,000 6% - 7% $5,300 14% $3,800 Funds Flow (000 s) per share $45,400 $0.42 Operations CAPEX (000 s) A & D CAPEX (000 s) $105,000 ($-) $92,000 ($19,300) $106,600 $88,000 Umbach hz drills Umbach hz completions 14.0 net 14.0 net 10.0 net 13.0 net 16.0 net 12.6 net Year End Total Debt (000 s) ($105,000) ($60,000) ($63,100) bank line $140 MM forecast Q4/15 debt ~1.3 X Q4/15 CF annualized

27 UMBACH MONTNEY GEOLOGY thickness 200 metres upper Montney 39 metres mid Montney 34 metres lower Montney 28 metres upper + mid Montney DPIIP Bcf/section upper + mid 73 metres average porosity ~6% (core) average Sw ~20% average pressure MPa Montney is a very thick, low quality, conventional reservoir layered resource, still learning with DPIIP likely to increase

28 UMBACH MONTNEY FREE CONDENSATE

29 GAS PRICE CALCULATION & MARKETING DETAILS 2016 fwd strip (Nov 10/15) NYMEX US$2.60/mmbtu NYMEX - Chicago diff +US$0.02/mmbtu FX 1.33 AECO $2.48/GJ AECO BC Stn 2 diff -$0.76/GJ 2016 marketing arrangements (shows transportation deductions, sales point at McMahon Gas Plant) approx 13,600 Boe/d in 2016 covered by firm transport, remainder (growth) sold at BC Stn 2 daily spot price Sell in Chicago, Alliance Pipeline NYMEX US$2.60/mmbtu NYMEX - Chicago diff +US$0.02/mmbtu Chicago price Cdn$3.30/GJ Alliance pipeline -$1.39/GJ Price at McMahon Gas Plant $1.91/GJ adjusted for heat content $2.42/mcf Sell at BC Stn 2 AECO $2.48/GJ AECO BC Stn 2 diff -$0.76/GJ Spectra T-north pipeline -$0.18/GJ Price at McMahon Gas Plant $1.54/GJ adjusted for heat content $1.96/mcf 18,200 GJ/d or 14,600 mcf/d Chicago price -$1.39/GJ Alliance toll 34,800 GJ/d or 27,800 mcf/d AECO +$0.67USD/mmbtu fixed diff -$1.39/GJ Alliance toll 11,000 GJ/d or 8,800 mcf/d AECO -$0.34/GJ fixed diff -$0.18/GJ T-north toll 10,300 GJ/d or 8,200 mcf/d AECO -$0.68/GJ

30 Shale gas from Muskwa, Otter Park, Evie shales 81,000 net acres, 100% WI 123 net sections Drilled 2 hz s & 2 verticals to validate commerciality 1 producing hz, 1 standing hz HORN RIVER BASIN HRB (NE BC)