2014 GSAM Insurance Survey & Recent Topics of Discussion

Transcription

1 Global Insurance Asset Management ACLI Financial and Investment Roundtable 2014 GSAM Insurance Survey & Recent Topics of Discussion Michael Siegel, PhD Global Head of GSAM Insurance Asset Management March 3, 2014

2 Agenda I GSAM Insurance Survey Flash Read II. Recent Topics of Discussion

3 2014 GSAM Insurance Survey Flash Read

4 2014 GSAM Insurance Survey Summary of Preliminary Survey Respondents Type Life P&C/Non-Life Multi-Line Reinsurance Health Total CIO CFO Both Total Region Americas EMEA Pan Asia Total CIO CFO Both Total Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 4

5 2014 GSAM Insurance CIO Survey

6 2014 Investment Outlook Overall, do you feel that investment opportunities compared to a year ago are improving, staying the same, or getting worse? % of Respondents Improving Staying the Same Getting Worse CIOs CFOs 2014 data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 6

7 CIOs: Macroeconomic Risks Which of the following issues pose the greatest risk to your investment portfolio? Credit & Equity Volatility 25 Monetary Accommodation 23 Economic Shock in EM & China 14 Credit & Equity Market Volatility 18 Inflation 13 Inflation 14 Monetary Tightening 12 Slow U.S. Economic Growth 13 Deflation 11 European Debt Crisis data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 7

8 Life CIOs: Portfolio Risks Please select the portfolio risk that you are most concerned about Low Yields Rising Interest Rates Credit Spread Widening Equity Market Volatility Liquidity Risk Low Yields Rising Interest Rates Credit Spread Widening Equity Market Volatility Liquidity Risk 2014 data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 8

9 CIOs: Inflation When do you expect inflation will be a concern in your domestic market? In the Next Year Next 2-3 Years Next 3-5 Years Not In The Next 5 Years In the Next Year Next 2-3 Years Next 3-5 Years Not In The Next 5 Years Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 9

10 CIOs: Deflation When do you expect deflation will be a concern in your domestic market? In the Next Year Next 2-3 Years Next 3-5 Years Not In The Next 5 Years In the Next Year Next 2-3 Years Next 3-5 Years Not In The Next 5 Years Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 10

11 2014 U.S. Treasury Outlook Where do you expect the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield will be at year-end 2014? % of Respondents CIOs: ~3.1% CFOs: ~2.8% < 2.0% > 2.0% - 2.5% > 2.5% - 3.0% > 3.0% - 3.5% > 3.5% - 4.0% CIOs CFOs 2014 data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 11

12 2014 U.S. Equity Outlook What do you expect the 2014 total return will be for the S&P 500? % of Respondents CIOs: ~5.6% CFOs: ~5.1% < -20% > -20% to -10% > -10% to 0% > 0% to 10% > 10% to 20% CIOs CFOs 2014 data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 12

13 CIOs: Asset Class Returns (Highest) Please select the asset classes that you expect to have the highest total return in the next 12 months Private Equity 31 Emerging Market Equities 21 U.S. Equities 15 U.S. Equities 21 European Equities 14 Private Equity 13 Emerging Market Equities 8 Real Estate 9 U.S. IG Corporates 4 European Equities data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 13

14 CIOs: Asset Class Returns (Lowest) Please select the asset classes that you expect to have the lowest total return in the next 12 months Government/Agency Debt 32 Cash/Short-Term Instruments 43 Cash/Short-Term Instruments 20 Government/Agency Debt 40 Emerging Market Equities 13 U.S. IG Corporates 3 EM Sovereign Debt (Local) 8 European IG Corporates 2 Commodities 8 High Yield Debt data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 14

15 Life CIOs: Portfolio Construction Are you planning to increase, decrease or maintain the following in your investment portfolio in the next 12 months? % Decrease % Increase Overall Risk 7 39 Liquidity 16 9 Duration Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 15

16 2014 vs Net Asset Allocation Changes Highest Net Allocation Changes 2014 Private Equity Infrastructure Debt Real Estate Equity High Yield Debt Mezzanine Debt (% Increase - % Decrease) Bank Loans Real Estate U.S. Equities Emerging Market Corporate Debt Emerging Market Equities (% Increase - % Decrease) data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 16

17 2014 vs Net Asset Allocation Changes Lowest Net Allocation Changes 2014 (% Increase - % Decrease) Government/Agency Debt Cash/Short-Term Instruments Agency RMBS (% Increase - % Decrease) Government/Agency Debt Cash/Short-Term Instruments Agency RMBS European Financial Credit data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 17

18 2014 GSAM Insurance CFO Survey

19 CFOs: Macroeconomic Risks Which of the following issues pose the greatest risk to your investment portfolio? Monetary Tightening 22 Credit & Equity Volatility 29 Credit & Equity Volatility 17 European Debt Crisis 14 Deflation 13 Inflation 14 Slow Growth In Europe 13 Monetary Accommodation 13 Inflation 9 Slow U.S. Growth data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 19

20 CFOs vs. CIOs: Macroeconomic Risks Which of the following issues pose the greatest risk to your investment portfolio? CFOs CIOs Monetary Tightening 22 Credit & Equity Mkt. Volatility 25 Credit & Equity Mkt. Volatility 17 Economic Shock in EM & China 14 Deflation 13 Inflation 13 Slow Growth In Europe 13 Monetary Tightening 12 Inflation 9 Deflation data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 20

21 CFOs: Investment Risk Do you think your industry peer group is currently taking on too much, an appropriate level of, or insufficient investment risk? % of Respondents Too Much Risk Appropriate Level of Risk Insufficient Risk data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 21

22 CFOs: Capitalization Do you believe your industry peer group is currently over, adequately, or under capitalized? % of Respondents Over-capitalized Adequately capitalized Under-capitalized data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 22

23 CFOs: Excess Capital Which of the following do you think is the best use of excess capital? % of Respondents Increase Dividends / Pay Special Dividend Support Organic Growth Retain / Further Strengthen Capital Base Invest in Higher Return / Capital Intensive Assets Share Buybacks Acquisitions data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 23

24 CFOs: Return on Capital Expectations What is your Return on Capital expectation for your industry peer group this year? % of Respondents Less Than 5% >5-10% >10-15% >15% data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 24

25 2014 GSAM Insurance Survey Key Results Macroeconomic Risks Management of Monetary Policy: Acceleration of monetary tightening Inflation and/or deflation Credit and equity market volatility Growth in Emerging Markets, China, Europe 2014 data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, data as of March 5, Represents percentage ranked first choice. Please see additional disclosures. 25

26 2014 GSAM Insurance Survey Market Predictions Investment Outlook The percentage of CIOs who believe the investment outlook is staying the same or improving (56%) is unchanged from 2013 Nearly 80% of CFOs said the outlook is either staying the same or improving 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Nearly 70% of CIOs expect 10-Year Treasury yield between % at year-end; only 5% predict it will be greater than 3.5% S&P 500 Total Return 75% of CIOs and 83% of CFOs predict total return between zero and 10% in data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 26

27 2014 GSAM Insurance Survey Key Results Asset Class Return Expectations Highest returns for Private equity (31%) U.S. equities (15%) and European equities (14%) Lowest returns for Government/agency debt (32%), Cash/short-term instruments (20%) EM equities (13%) Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 27

28 2014 GSAM Insurance Survey Key Results Portfolio Construction 39% of Life CIOs intend to increase overall portfolio risk; 7% intend to decrease 75% of Life CIOs intend to maintain portfolio liquidity; 16% intend to decrease 64% of Life CIOs intend to maintain portfolio duration; 23% intend to decrease Net Asset Allocation Changes Insurers intend to increase allocations to private equity (31%), infrastructure debt (29%), and real estate equity (25%) Planned decreases to government/agency debt (20%), cash/short-term instruments (20%), and agency RMBS (9%) Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 28

29 II. Recent Topics of Discussion

30 Recent Topics of Discussion Emerging Markets Interest Rates Providing Liquidity Inflation / Real Assets 30

31 Emerging Markets

32 Emerging Markets EM assets and currencies have underperformed, as tighter financial conditions and political uncertainty contribute to growth concerns Concerns of economic slowdown in China and the stability of shadow banking sector Nearly all U.S. insurance industry s exposure is via emerging market debt (EMD) 1 Double Down or Exit? 1 NAIC Capital Markets Bureau Special Report, U.S. Insurance Industry Exposure to Emerging Markets, February As of February Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. 32

33 Emerging Market Debt Debt sustainability is less of a concern in EM countries Government Debt (% of GDP) Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Developed Markets Emerging Markets Source: IMF 2013 estimates. Data as of October See appendix for additional disclosures. 33

34 Spread (bps) Emerging Market Debt EM External Sovereign Debt Spreads Source: JPM-Morgan Markets, Bloomberg. Data as of January 31, EM External Debt: JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 34

35 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Spread (bps) Yield (%) Emerging Market Debt EM External Sovereign Debt Spreads EM External Sovereign Debt Yields vs. U.S. Treasuries EM External Debt 10-Year U.S. Treasury Source: JPM-Morgan Markets, Bloomberg. Data as of January 31, EM External Debt: JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 35

36 Annualized Total Return (%) Emerging Market Debt EM External Sovereign Debt EM Local Sovereign Debt EM External Corporate Debt YTD Source: GSAM & JPM calculations, JPM-Morgan Markets, as of January 31, EM External Sovereign Debt: JPM EMBI Global Diversified. EM Local Sovereign Debt: JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified. EM External Corporate Debt: JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 36

37 Emerging Market Debt Spreads and Yields EM External Corporate Debt (Spread) EM External Sovereign Debt (Spread) EM Local Sovereign Debt (Yield) 31-Jan Dec Dec bps 311 bps 321 bps 360 bps 308 bps 257 bps 7.20% 6.85% 5.45% 10-Year U.S. Treasury 2.64% 3.03% 1.76% Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg. As of January 31, EM External Sovereign Debt: JPM EMBI Global Diversified. EM Local Sovereign Debt: JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified. EM External Corporate Debt: JPM CEMBI Broad Diversified. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 37

38 Interest Rates

39 2014 U.S. Treasury Outlook Where do you expect the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield will be at year-end 2014? % of Respondents CIOs: ~3.1% CFOs: ~2.8% < 2.0% > 2.0% - 2.5% > 2.5% - 3.0% > 3.0% - 3.5% > 3.5% - 4.0% CIOs CFOs 2014 data based on preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 39

40 Life CIOs: Rising Rates Please select the most effective strategy for managing risk in a rising rate environment. Utilize Interest Rate Derivatives Shorten Duration of FI Portfolio Allocate to Floating Rate Assets Allocate to Unconstrained & Absolute Return Strategies Maintain Duration (Already Priced Into Yield Curve) Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 40

41 Interest Rates Floating Rate Assets Large Market Corporate Loans Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Middle Market Corporate Loans Hedging Strategies Payer Swaps Short Futures Payer Swaptions As of February See appendix for additional disclosures. 41

42 Large Market Corporate Loans Low duration asset that has the potential to perform well with rising rates Senior secured status can enhance capital preservation; higher recovery rates than high yield Economic expansion and low defaults provides a constructive backdrop Weakening of covenants Re-emergence of LBO activity Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 42

43 Spread (bps) Large Market Corporate Loans L+3000 Discounted Spread L+2500 L+2000 L+1500 L+1000 L L Large Market Corporate Loans Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Data from January 1, 2003 to December 31, Excludes all facilities in default. Assumes discount from par is amortized evenly over a three-year life. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 43

44 Spread (bps) Large Market Corporate Loans L+800 Discounted Spread L+700 L+600 L L+400 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Large Market Corporate Loans Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Data from December 31, 2011 to December 31, Excludes all facilities in default. Assumes discount from par is amortized evenly over a three-year life. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 44

45 Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Securities backed by a pool of bank loans Senior tranches are less volatile than bank loans or high yield Post-crisis new issues have stronger credit support and shorter reinvestment periods Current spreads 1 : AAA tranches ~ bps AA tranches ~ bps A tranches ~ bps 1 Source: GSAM estimates as of February 26, As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 45

46 Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) Regulatory Update Volcker Rule aims to limit U.S. banks ownership of covered funds ; rule becomes effective starting July 2015 Most CLOs have small baskets of HY bonds while some older vintages own mezz tranches of other CLOs; likely to be considered covered funds under Volcker AAA tranches are under increased scrutiny, as they typically permit removal of the fund manager; may constitute as ownership AAAs are wider post-volcker, while AA and A tranches are tighter Post-Volcker CLOs ( CLO 3.0 ) contain 100% bank loans, which are exempt from the covered funds definition YTD CLO issuance trails last year s, but has started to pick up in February Sources: GSAM; Wells Fargo, The CLO Salmagundi: A Volcker Rule CLO FAQ, January 28, As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 46

47 Spread (bps) Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) L+500 Primary CLO Spreads L+400 L+300 L L+100 L+0 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 AAA AA A Source: JP Morgan Markets. As of January 31, Represents quarterly data. 47

48 Providing Liquidity

49 Providing Liquidity Life insurers are looking to increase investment yields and total return potential by supplying capital in less liquid markets: Traditional CMLs & Privates Private Equity Middle Market Corporate Loans As of February See appendix for additional disclosures. 49

50 Private Equity Potential for alpha generation through operational efficiency and long-term strategies Lower volatility relative to public equities Strategies such as Secondaries can mitigate impact of the J-Curve 1 Equity capital markets activity is robust, creating significant opportunities for private equity managers to generate liquidity 1 The J-curve refers to the cumulative net cash flow seen by an investor, which for private equity investments is typically negative in the first several years after the initial commitment due to capital being drawn down for investments and generally becomes positive after capital is returned and the fund becomes net cash flow positive. As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 50

51 Middle Market Corporate Loans Structural opportunity to earn an illiquidity premium by becoming capital providers where banks have left a void Typically a buy and hold asset with maturities ranging from 3 to 5 years High recovery rates due to concentrated and aligned debt holder community Higher spreads relative to large market loans compensate for illiquidity 1 The J-curve refers to the cumulative net cash flow seen by an investor, which for private equity investments is typically negative in the first several years after the initial commitment due to capital being drawn down for investments and generally becomes positive after capital is returned and the fund becomes net cash flow positive. As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 51

52 Spread (bps) Middle Market Corporate Loans L+3000 Middle vs. Large Market Corporate Loans Discounted Spread L+2500 L+2000 L+1500 L+1000 L L Middle Market Large Market Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Data from January 1, 2003 to December 31, Excludes all facilities in default. Assumes discount from par is amortized evenly over a three-year life. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 52

53 Spread (bps) Middle Market Corporate Loans L+850 Middle vs. Large Market Corporate Loans Discounted Spread L+750 L L+550 L L+350 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Middle Market Large Market Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Data from December 31, 2011 to December 31, Excludes all facilities in default. Assumes discount from par is amortized evenly over a three-year life. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 53

54 Inflation / Real Assets

55 Life CIOs: Real Assets Which of the following real asset classes do you believe offers the greatest inflation protection? Real Estate 45 Infrastructure Assets Commodities Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Preliminary survey results as of February 20, Please see additional disclosures. 55

56 Real Estate Can provide insurers with strong and stable cash flows Potential for capital appreciation Can serve as a long-term hedge against inflation Supply/demand fundamentals and attractive financing environment are leading to meaningful growth in Net Operating Income 1 1 As of 3Q 2013 (most recent available). Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis, PPR, Market Fundamentals report. 2 Sources: NCREIF, Barclays Capital, Datastream, David Geltner (MIT), Bloomberg. Historical volatility and correlation to real estate (NCREIF TBI) from 1985 to Q As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 56

57 Total Return (%) Real Estate US private commercial real estate returns have outperformed both the S&P 500 and investment grade bonds over the last 15 years NCREIF Property Index S&P 500 Index Barclays Global Aggregate Index Source: Bloomberg. Data from 3Q 1998 to 3Q 2013, compounded quarterly. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 57

58 Infrastructure Mature infrastructure assets may offer stable cash flows, inflation protection, and attractive yields relative to investment grade Long duration infrastructure debt can provide an attractive illiquidity premium and can match long-term liabilities Insurers are the second largest investor in infrastructure debt (17%) after public pension funds, and roughly one-quarter of investors are based in the U.S. 1 1 Source: Preqin, The Rise of Infrastructure Debt, February As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 58

59 Public Equity Potential for long-term capital appreciation and protection against inflation Higher Dividend / Lower Volatility strategies can minimize drawdown risk Equity valuations remain attractive relative to investment grade bonds 2 1 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Where to Invest Now: Path Matters, 2/6/ Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, as of 12/31/2013. S&P 500 Earnings Yield (E/P) vs. US 10-Year Yield. As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 59

60 Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Exposure to physical assets attractive during inflationary periods Midstream assets, such as pipelines, have high barriers to entry with relatively inelastic demand and predictable cash flows U.S. energy renaissance is supportive of increased infrastructure demand Anticipate strong annual distribution growth over next few years due to attractive supply/demand fundamentals On a total return basis, MLPs have outperformed the S&P 500 in 5 of the last 7 years 1 Alerian MLP Index is yielding approximately 6.7% 2 1 Source: GSAM. As of 12/31/2013. Refers to Alerian MLP Total Return Index (AMZX) and S&P 500 Total Return Index. 2 Source: Bloomberg; GSAM. As of 12/31/2013. MLP yield reflect the median yield of the 50 largest MLPs represented by the Alerian Index. The Alerian MLP Index is a composite of the 50 most prominent energy MLPs calculated by Standards & Poor s using a float-adjusted market capitalization methodology. As of February 2014, except where noted otherwise. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 60

61 Distribution Growth Rate Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) 14.0% MLP Quarterly Distribution Growth 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Significant growth post-credit crisis 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Barclays. As of September 30, Distribution growth based on quarterly data. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. See appendix for additional disclosures. 61

62 Recent GSAM Insurance Publications 62

63 Disclosures General Disclosures: Preliminary survey information as of February 20, GSAM Insurance Survey information as of March 5, This material is provided for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. FOR DISTRIBUTION ONLY TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL SERVICES LINCENSEES AND THEIR ADVISERS. NOT FOR VIEWING BY RETAIL CLIENTS OR MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC. This material is provided at your request for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. This material has been prepared by GSAM and is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. GSAM does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and therefore expresses no view as to the legal, tax or accounting treatment of the information described herein or any related transaction, nor are we providing any assurance as to the adequacy or appropriateness of this information or our procedures for your purposes. This material is not a substitute for the professional advice or services of your own financial, tax, accounting and legal advisors. Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax, or legal advice. Notwithstanding anything in this document to the contrary, and except as required to enable compliance with applicable securities law, you may disclose to any person the US federal and state income tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction and all materials of any kind (including tax opinions and other tax analyses) that are provided to you relating to such tax treatment and tax structure, without Goldman Sachs imposing any limitation of any kind. Investors should be aware that a determination of the tax consequences to them should take into account their specific circumstances and that the tax law is subject to change in the future or retroactively and investors are strongly urged to consult with their own tax advisor regarding any potential strategy, investment or transaction. 63

64 Disclosures Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material has been prepared by GSAM and is not a product of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. S&P GIVI TM is a trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ( Standard & Poor's ) and have been licensed for use by The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and its affiliates. Any products associated with GIVI are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Standard & Poor's and Standard & Poor s does not make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. STANDARD & POOR S, S&P, and S&P INDICES are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. S&P GIVI and GIVI are trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur. Simulated Performance Simulated performance is hypothetical and may not take into account material economic and market factors, such as liquidity constraints, that would impact the adviser s actual decision-making. Simulated results are achieved by retroactively applying a model with the benefit of hindsight. The results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings, but do not reflect fees, transaction costs, and other expenses a client would have to pay, which would reduce returns. Actual results will vary. Backtested performance results do not represent the results of actual trading using client assets. They do not reflect the reinvestment of dividends, the deduction of any fees, commissions or any other expenses a client would have to pay. If GSAM had managed your account during the period, it is highly improbable that your account would have been managed in a similar fashion due to differences in economic and market conditions. 64

65 Disclosures Index Benchmarks Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein. The exclusion of failed or closed hedge funds may mean that each index overstates the performance of hedge funds generally. The strategy may include the use of derivatives. Derivatives often involve a high degree of financial risk because a relatively small movement in the price of the underlying security or benchmark may result in a disproportionately large movement in the price of the derivative and are not suitable for all investors. No representation regarding the suitability of these instruments and strategies for a particular investor is made. Master Limited Partnerships ( MLPs ) may be generally less liquid than other publicly traded securities and as such can be more volatile and involve higher risk. MLPs may also involve substantially different tax treatment than other equity-type investments, and such tax treatment could be disadvantageous to certain types of investors, such as retirement plans, mutual funds, charitable accounts, foreign investors, retirement accounts or charitable entities. In addition, investments in MLPs may trigger state tax reporting requirements. Alerian MLP Index, Alerian MLP Total Return Index, AMZ and AMZX are trademarks of Alerian and their use is granted under a license from Alerian or Source: Alerian Generally, a master limited partnership ( MLP ) is treated as a partnership for Federal income tax purposes. Therefore, investors in an MLP may be subject to certain taxes in addition to Federal income taxes, including state and local income taxes imposed by the various jurisdictions in which the MLP conducts business or owns property. In addition, certain tax-exempt investors in an MLP, such as tax-exempt foundations and charitable lead trusts, may incur unrelated business taxable income ( UBTI ) with respect to their investment. UBTI may result in increased Federal, and possibly state and local, tax costs, and may also result in additional filing requirements for tax exempt investors. Non-U.S. investors may be subject to U.S. taxation on a net income basis and have U.S. filing obligations as a result of investing in MLPs or US Royalty Trusts. The tax reporting information for MLPs generally is provided to investors on an annual IRS Schedule K-1, rather than an IRS Form To the extent the Schedule K-1 is delivered after April 15, you may be required to request an extension to file your tax returns. 65

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