2013 GSAM Insurance Survey & Industry Investment Trends

Transcription

1 Global Insurance Asset Management AASCIF Annual Workshop Fall GSAM Insurance Survey & Industry Investment Trends Michael Siegel, PhD Global Head of GSAM Insurance Asset Management September 3, 23

2 Table of Contents I. Introduction to GSAM Insurance Survey II. GSAM Insurance CIO Survey III. GSAM Insurance CFO Survey IV. Life Company Asset Allocation Overview V. Market and Industry Investment Trends 2

3 I. Introduction to GSAM Insurance Survey

4 23 GSAM Insurance Survey Summary of Survey Respondents Type Life P&C/Non-Life Multi-Line Reinsurance Health Total CIO CFO Both Total Region Americas EMEA Pan Asia Total CIO CFO Both 7 9 Total Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 4

5 23 GSAM Insurance Survey Executive Summary Investment environment is challenging, but CIOs are increasingly optimistic Accommodative monetary policy has replaced the European debt crisis as the greatest macroeconomic concern Low yields and rising interest rates are viewed as the most significant investment risks CIOs intend to increase allocations to assets that offer higher return potential, interest rate protection, and/or an illiquidity premium CIOs intend to decrease allocations to cash/short-term instruments and government/agency debt Most CFOs believe the industry is either adequately or over-capitalized, but have mixed views on whether excess capital should be retained or returned to shareholders Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 5

6 II. GSAM Insurance CIO Survey

7 23 GSAM Insurance CIO Survey Key Results Investment Outlook Increasingly optimistic about the investment environment; 3% believe investment opportunities are improving, compared to 4% in 22 Macroeconomic Risks Accommodative monetary policy (23%), credit and equity market volatility (8%) and inflation (4%) are greatest macroeconomic concerns Investment Risk Low yields is most significant risk (52%), but increasing concern about rising rates (32%) Interest Rate Risk More than 5% believe interest rates will rise significantly in the next 2-3 years; nearly 4% believe interest rates will rise significantly in the next 3-5 years Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 7

8 23 GSAM Insurance CIO Survey Key Results Inflation and Deflation Inflation expected to be a medium-term concern; deflation concerns have retreated Inflation-linked bonds (26%), floating rate assets (9%) and real estate (7%) most defensive assets in an inflationary environment Asset Class Return Expectations Highest returns from US equities (2%), EM equities (2%), and private equity (3%) Lowest returns from short-term instruments (43%) and government/agency debt (4%) Asset Allocation Changes Insurers to increase allocations to bank loans (43%), US equities (38%), real estate (37%) Planned decreases to government/agency debt (42%) and cash/short-term instruments (37%) Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 8

9 23 GSAM Insurance CIO Survey Key Results Portfolio Construction and Strategy 4% intend to increase overall portfolio risk; only 7% intend to decrease 36% intend to decrease liquidity in their portfolio; only 9% intend to increase Increasing allocations to equities/alternatives (45%) and less liquid assets (38%) are considered most effective strategies for increasing portfolio returns Equity Strategies Insurers prefer high current dividend (55%) and low-volatility (37%) equity strategies Non-Investment Considerations Liability-duration matching (37%) and regulatory capital treatment (28%) are the most significant non-investment considerations 4% percent of insurers believe that regulatory changes will result in holding more capital Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 9

10 Global: Macroeconomic Risks Which of the following issues pose the greatest risk to your investment portfolio? Please select and rank your top 3. % Ranked First Choice % Total Ranked (-3) Accommodative Monetary Policies 23 4 Credit & Equity Market Volatility 8 47 Inflation 4 35 Slow U.S. Economic Growth 3 4 European Debt Crisis 35 U.S. Fiscal/Budgetary Issues 9 37 Deflation 7 5 Recession In Europe & UK 3 7 Economic Slowdown In China 2 3 European Financial Market Regulatory Change 2 8 U.S. Financial Market Regulatory Change Volatile Oil Prices & Supplies 2 Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures.

11 Portfolio Investment Risks Please select the investment risk that you are most concerned about. Total % Life % Low Yields Rising Interest Rates Credit Spread Widening Equity Market Volatility Liquidity Risk Currency Risk Prepayment/ Call Risk Low Yields Rising Interest Rates Credit Spread Widening Equity Market Volatility Liquidity Risk Currency Risk Prepayment/Call Risk Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures.

12 Global: Asset Class Returns Please rank the three asset classes that you expect to have the highest and lowest total return in the next 2 months. Emerging Market Equities U.S. Equities Private Equity Real Estate European Equities Mezzanine Debt Middle Market Private Debt High Yield Debt Bank Loans Non-Agency RMBS Hedge Funds Emerging Market Debt External Corporates U.S. Investment Grade Corporates European Financial Credit Emerging Market Debt Local Sovereign CMBS Commercial Mortgage Loans Cash and Short-Term Instruments U.S. Financial Credit European Investment Grade Corporates Agency RMBS Energy Master Limited Partnerships Commodities Government and Agency Debt Emerging Market Debt External Sovereign % Highest Total Return % Lowest Total Return Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 2

13 Life: Asset Allocation Changes Are you planning to increase, decrease or maintain your allocation to the following asset classes in the next 2 months? Bank Loans Real Estate Middle Market Private Debt U.S. IG Corporates U.S. Equities Commercial Mortgage Loans EMD External Corporates Mezzanine Debt Emerging Market Equities Private Equity European Equities Energy MLPs U.S. Financial Credit EMD External Sovereign High Yield Debt European IG Corporates EMD Local Sovereign Commodities Hedge Funds Non-Agency RMBS CMBS Agency RMBS European Financial Credit Government and Agency Debt Cash and Short-Term Instruments % Increase Maintain Decrease Do Not Invest Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures % Total Net (Increase Decrease)

14 22 vs. 23 Net Asset Allocation Changes Highest Net Allocation Changes 23 Bank Loans Real Estate US Equities Emerging Market External Corporate Debt Emerging Market Equities (% Increase - % Decrease) High Yield Debt US Investment Grade Corporates Emerging Market Debt Real Estate Bank Loans (% Increase - % Decrease) Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 4

15 Portfolio Risk Are you planning to increase, decrease or maintain the overall risk in your investment portfolio in the next 2 months? % Decrease % Increase Total 7 4 Life 5 5 P&C/Non-Life 6 35 Multi-Line 6 42 Reinsurance 7 33 Health 25 Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 5

16 Portfolio Liquidity Are you planning to increase, decrease or maintain the liquidity in your investment portfolio in the next 2 months? % Decrease % Increase Total 36 9 Life 47 P&C/Non-Life 34 5 Multi-Line 3 3 Reinsurance Health 7 8 Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 6

17 III. GSAM Insurance CFO Survey

18 23 CFOs: Capitalization Do you believe your industry peer group is currently over, adequately, or under capitalized? % of Respondents Over-capitalized Adequately capitalized Under-capitalized Life P&C/Non-Life Multi-Line Reinsurance Health Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 8

19 23 CFOs: Excess Capital Which of the following do you think is the best use of excess capital? 36 % of Respondents Support organic growth Retain and further strengthen capital base Invest in higher return/ capital intensive assets Acquisitions Increase dividends and/or pay a special dividend Share buybacks Life P&C/Non-Life Multi-Line Reinsurance Health Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 9

20 23 CFOs: Return on Equity Expectations What is your 23 return on equity expectation for your industry peer group? % of Respondents Less Than 5% >5-% >-5% >5% Life P&C/Non-Life Multi-Line Reinsurance Health Survey results as of March 5, 23. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. Please see additional disclosures. 2

21 IV. Life Company Asset Allocation Overview

22 Life Company Asset Allocation Total Portfolio.% 4.5% 5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.5% 4.7% 5.% 9.% 8.% 3.6% 32.8% 32.3% 3.9% 29.3% 3.8% 3.3% Total Asset Allocation 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 6.9% 59.% 58.% 6.6% 62.8% 6.3% 6.2% 2.%.%.% 3.% 2.9% 5.3% 4.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 26Y 27Y 28Y 29Y 2Y 2Y 22Y Cash Core FI Other FI Equities/Alts Source: SNL Data. As of June 4, 23. Represents year-end data. 22

23 Life Company Asset Allocation Core Fixed Income 7.% 6.% Core FI Asset Allocation 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 4.6% 4.% 4.8% 3.6% 29.7% 28.% 6.5% 26.8% 7.% 7.% 8.5% 26.8% 24.9% 24.%.%.% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3% 8.% 8.3% 8.6% 8.% 3.6% 3.7% 2.4% 4.%.5%.4%.5% 5.9% 5.3% 5.6% 7.% 7.7% 8.2% 7.4% 26Y 27Y 28Y 29Y 2Y 2Y 22Y Govt/Agency Munis Agency RMBS Corp A Corp BBB Source: SNL Data. As of June 4, 23. Represents year-end data. 23

24 Life Company Asset Allocation Other Fixed Income 35.% Other FI Asset Allocation 3.% 25.% 2.% 5.%.% 3.4% 3.4% 3.9%.% 4.4%.%.7%.%.7%.6% 4.3%.%.6%.2% 9.3% 8.7% 8.3%.6% 6.3% 5.5% 3.5% 4.% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2% 3.9% 3.6%.3%.4%.7%.7% 4.6% 4.% 4.6% 4.5% 5.%.%.8%.%.5%.6%.7%.7%.7% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.8% 4.9% 5.% 26Y 27Y 28Y 29Y 2Y 2Y 22Y ABS CLO CMBS / CML Non-Agency RMBS / RML EMD Govt EMD Corp High Yield Source: SNL Data. As of June 4, 23. Represents year-end data. 24

25 Life Company Asset Allocation Equities and Alternatives 6.% Equities/Alts Asset Allocation 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.%.3%.3%.3%.5%.6%.5%.3%.6%.5%.3%.6%.4%.4%.3%.3%.9%.7%.8%.4%.5%.6%.%.7%.7%.%.9%.%.%.%.% 26Y 27Y 28Y 29Y 2Y 2Y 22Y Equity Real Estate Alts/PE Alts/HF Alts/Other Source: SNL Data. As of June 4, 23. Represents year-end data. 25

26 Life Industry Challenges RBC Ratio vs. Net Yield 5% 7.% 45% 4% 42% 398% 384% 42% 459% 45% 458% 6.5% RBC Ratio (CAL) 35% 3% 25% 5.7% 5.7% 5.4% 5.% 5.2% 5.% 4.9% 6.% 5.5% 5.% Net Yield 2% 5% 4.5% % 26Y 27Y 28Y 29Y 2Y 2Y 22Y 4.% RBC Ratio(CAL)* Net Yield(RHS) RBC Ratio (CAL) = (Industry Total Adjusted Capital / Industry Total Required Capital) * 5% Source: SNL Data. Net Yield represents annualized investment return based on average invested assets. 26

27 V. Market and Industry Investment Trends

28 Recent Market Trends Uncertainty around the timing and path of interest rates has elevated market volatility in recent months Anticipate a gradual rise in US rates and flattening of the yield curve Fiscal drag is likely to be offset by private sector growth Improving global growth and lower anticipated tail risks should support risk assets Housing market should continue to recover due to limited supply and strong demand Inflation remains subdued given slack in the economy As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. See appendix for additional disclosures. 28

29 Industry Investment Trends Low interest rates have resulted in deteriorating investment yields in recent years Insurers are looking to diversify away from traditional fixed income assets Insurers whose claims costs are exposed to unanticipated inflation may have greater appetite for asset classes that offer inflation protection Strong industry capitalization levels allow for greater flexibility to allocate to alternative asset classes As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. See appendix for additional disclosures. 29

30 Industry Investment Trends Insurers are investigating non-traditional asset classes such as: Bank Loans Emerging Market Debt Middle Market Senior Loans Real Estate Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Public Equity Private Equity Hedge Funds As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 3

31 Bank Loans Provides insurers with consistent current income in various rate environments Interest rate protection from a low duration asset class; coupons reset quarterly Senior secured status enhances capital preservation through priority claims Higher recovery rates compared to high yield Low correlation to investment grade fixed income provides portfolio diversification As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 3

32 Emerging Market Debt Debt sustainability issues in developed markets are less of a concern in emerging market countries Emerging markets account for 49% of global GDP, but only 3% of global market capitalization EM governments are able to manage monetary and fiscal policy to navigate cycles Low correlation to traditional fixed income and potential to benefit from currency appreciation Source: IMF, WEO, BIS and World Federation exchanges. As of 2/3/22. As of 9/6/23, except where noted otherwise. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 32

33 Middle Market Senior Loans Structural opportunity to earn illiquidity premium by becoming capital providers where banks have left a void Typically a buy and hold asset class with maturities ranging from 3 to 5 years May back longer-dated liabilities that do not require a high degree of current liquidity High recovery rates due to concentrated and aligned debt holder community Higher spreads can result in attractive return on capital Complements a private equity portfolio and can mitigate impact of the J-Curve through early and regular cash coupons As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 33

34 Real Estate Provides insurers with strong and steady cash flows Potential for capital appreciation supported by rising property prices Real asset exposure can provide long-term inflation protection US private commercial real estate returns have outperformed both the S&P 5 and investment grade bonds over the last 5 years Supply/demand fundamentals and attractive financing environment are leading to meaningful growth in Net Operating Income 2 Lower long-term volatility and limited correlation to equities and high yield bonds 3 As of 3/3/23. Source: Bloomberg. Total returns represented by the NCREIF Property Index, S&P 5 Index, and Barclays Global Aggregate Index. Data compounded quarterly. 2 As of 3/3/23. Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis. 3 As of Q4 22. Sources: NCREIF, Barclays Capital, Datastream, David Geltner (MIT), Bloomberg. Historical volatility and correlation to real estate (NCREIF TBI) from 985 to Q4 22. Other data or views as of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 34

35 Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) Delivered consistent returns, outperforming the S&P 5 all but one year since 2 Exposure to physical assets can be particularly attractive during inflationary periods Midstream assets, such as pipelines, have high barriers to entry with relatively inelastic demand and predictable cash flows US energy renaissance is supportive of increased infrastructure demand 2 Relatively undiscovered sector that remains in the early stages of development Source: Bloomberg, GSAM as of /3/23. Performance of MLPs is based on the Alerian MLP Total Return Index; reflects reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. 2 Source: GSAM Energy & Infrastructure Quarterly Market Update (2Q23). As of 9/6/23, except where noted otherwise. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 35

36 Public Equity Potential for long-term capital appreciation and protection against inflation Strong corporate fundamentals, earnings growth, and an improving macroeconomic outlook should be supportive of equity valuations Strong industry capitalization levels and relative attractiveness compared to credit assets is resulting in greater capacity for equity allocations High dividend equities can offer attractive, stable yields in various rate environments Lower volatility strategies can minimize drawdown risk As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 36

37 Private Equity Access to unique sources of innovation and value creation Alpha generation through operational efficiency and long term strategies Lower volatility relative to public equities and low correlation to credit Strategies such as Secondaries can mitigate impact of the J-Curve Typically a surplus allocation As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 37

38 Hedge Funds Focus on alpha generation, with low correlation to traditional asset classes Variety and flexibility of trading strategies allow for tactical portfolio adjustments Lower volatility and drawdown risk during periods of market stress Top tier managers have historically demonstrated ability to outperform benchmarks As of 9/6/23. There is no guarantee that these objectives will be met. See appendix for additional disclosures. 38

39 Disclosures General Disclosures: Survey information as of March 5, 23. This material is provided for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Confidentiality No part of this material may, without GSAM s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient. FOR DISTRIBUTION ONLY TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL SERVICES LINCENSEES AND THEIR ADVISERS. NOT FOR VIEWING BY RETAIL CLIENTS OR MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC. GSAM does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and therefore expresses no view as to the legal, tax or accounting treatment of the information described herein or any related transaction, nor are we providing any assurance as to the adequacy or appropriateness of this information or our procedures for your purposes. This material is not a substitute for the professional advice or services of your own financial, tax, accounting and legal advisors. To the extent that this document discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent it includes references to specific securities, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security, and the information may not be current. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The views expressed herein are current as of the date appearing in this material only and GSAM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes 23 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Compliance Code: 4973.OTHER.OTU 39