Social Media analysis: A very useful tool for trading and investing. Gerhard Lampen Head Sanlam itrade Online
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1 Social Media analysis: A very useful tool for trading and investing Gerhard Lampen Head Sanlam itrade Online
2 Agenda 1. A Growing Industry 2. Breaking News Discovery 3. Copy/Mirror Trading 4. Sentiment Analysis 5. Facebook Fans beating the JSE
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5 Exponential Growth in Twitter Discussions
6 Big Changes in 2013 The SEC confirmed that companies could use social media outlets to announce key information in compliance with Regulation Fair Disclosure; The Hash Crash in April drove 140 points off the Dow in two minutes (the AP Twitter account was hacked and tweeted about explosions in the White House); Iconic investor Carl Icahn tweeted We currently have a large position in APPLE. We believe the company to be extremely undervalued. Spoke to Tim Cook today. More to come. causing the stock price to jump and add $12.5 billion to the market value. SOCIAL MEDIA AND MARKETS: The New Frontier Gnip, Inc.
7 Breaking News Discovery Social media is the closest humanity has come to creating a way to instantaneously monitor the pulse of the world and observe the stream of human consciousness. SOCIAL MEDIA AND MARKETS: The New Frontier Gnip, Inc. The death of Osama bin Laden first entered the public sphere through a Tweet by a former Defence Department official briefed on the forthcoming announcement.
8 Breaking News Discovery - Speed DataMinr, a social media monitoring tool, was able to spot this with just 19 Tweets on the subject. The company issued a signal to their clients alerting them to this important piece of information. It would be over 20 minutes before that story appeared on traditional news sites. Access to a data stream that can beat traditional media sources by over 20 minutes requires no explanation as to its value for traders and investors. Speed matters! SOCIAL MEDIA AND MARKETS: The New Frontier Gnip, Inc.
9 Reporters Breaking News Live
10 Breaking News - Amplification Social media is a crowd-sourced megaphone. The propensity of users to like and share content from other users creates an easy mechanism to measure what is most important to the world. Investment professionals can use this data to determine the relative weight or interest in a story. SOCIAL MEDIA AND MARKETS: The New Frontier Gnip, Inc.
11 Amplification Word of Steve Jobs death spread rapidly, and thirty minutes after the news broke 50,000 people were Tweeting about him each minute. This was such an important story it occupied almost 25 percent of all Tweets at that time.
12 Copy/Mirror Trading Main Players: Tradeo etorro Currensee Ayondo TradeKing
13 Social Trading Networks Facilitates social trading by providing a forum for traders to connect, while enabling them to make trades by interfacing with brokers.
14 Broker Facilitated Trading The online broker enables social trading by offering tools to clients.
15 Special Tools Collaboration Forum, community chat, commenting, Q&A. Networking Follow, Friend. Connect with trading gurus. Automated copy/mirror trading. Trading feed with updates on trades. Traders ranked based on their performance. Trader profiling showcase trading ideas, opinions, success ratio, etc. Infosys Labs Briefings: Social Enablement of Online Trading Platforms.
16 Challenges Regulators are wary about misuse and spreading of false information. Quality of data False information can dilute the efficacy of social trading. Filtering noise is a challenge. The impact of social media is pervasive. It has moved from the fringe to mainstream. Social trading will gain increasing acceptance when traders realize its benefits. Infosys Labs Briefings: Social Enablement of Online Trading Platforms.
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25 Sentiment Analysis Main Players: SNTMNT HedgeChatter Topsy Estimize StockTwits
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32 Topsy Picks Up Netflix Slide The torrent of posts on Twitter Inc. last year about Netflix Inc. (NFLX) might have tipped off investors to stock swings that erased about $8 billion from the movie-rental company s market value in three months. Topsy Labs Inc., a site that searches data on the microblogging service, analyzed tweets during a period around Netflix s decision last September to split its DVD and streaming businesses. By examining posts such as just canceled my Netflix subscription, Topsy was able to pick up signals of a coming drop. Sentiment about Netflix was found by tracking negative and positive comments on Twitter in a given day. For example, an apology from your CEO won t win my business back would be considered negative, while Netflix split a good long-range move for the company was positive.
33 Social Media & iphone 4S The launch of iphone 4S was initially greeted with lots of negative reviews from the mainstream media. Those negative articles fueled a steep decline in Apple's share price when the iphone 4S launched. On social media reviews were mostly positive with people tweeting about how they liked the latest version of the iphone. Ten days after the launch Apple announced they had the biggest backlog for a product in its history. As an analyst, if you had known that, you would not have sold your Apple shares and you would have made a lot of money.
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35 Abil Sentiment Analysis on Topsy
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40 StockTwits 300,000 investors, market professionals and public companies share information and ideas about the market and individual stocks audience of over 40 million across the financial web and social media platforms. Currently only US stocks (excluding micro cap), FX symbols and futures symbols.
41 Tag Tweets as Bullish or Bearish
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44 Facebook Fans beating the JSE In 2013 we allowed our Facebook Fans to choose a portfolio of 20 shares of the top 100. We invested R1m in the shares they selected. This was probably a world first. Facebook Fans managed the portfolio over 9 months. The portfolio made a profit of R167,000 after costs compared to the JSE s 13%. The profit was distributed to prize winners and a charity. The educational value for new investors was priceless.
45 The Brand
46 The Opportunity Interest on Facebook - basics of share trading Identified an opportunity to educate and build brand loyalty Our target was there, ready and waiting We created a blog and started to educate, but this was not enough
47 The Objectives Grow Facebook community from about zero Establish a platform to engage clients and potential clients Establish a platform to broadcast our products and services Teach and educate potential investors Link our Blog and Twitter efforts to Facebook Gain iview clients to experience the itrade website features and active trading clients
48 The Concept R1 million portfolio, chosen by Facebook fans!
49 The Voting
50 The Motivation Featured share picks of the month. Fans predicted closing price of share at month-end. Prizes ranged from cash, to investments, to shopping vouchers 1 st place: 60% of the profits 2 nd place: 20% of the profits 3 rd place: 10% of the profits Final 10% of the profits donated to CHOC All prize money selfgenerated
51 The Results
52 The Results Exceeded our target of 5,000 fans Healthy community of beginner traders Steady flow of traffic through Facebook to website, blog on Twitter Able to engage with clients on social media Launched us smoothly into new platforms like LinkedIn Gained hundreds of new iview clients as well as active trading clients
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54 Become a client or stay in contact
55 Thank You Some wise words from Warren Buffet: I made my first investment at age eleven. I was wasting my life up until then. If calculus or algebra were required to be a great investor, I d have to go back to delivering newspapers. No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: You can t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.
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