Radius ETF Forum Panel Discussion: Getting Active with Income

Transcription

1 ETF solutions for every investor TM Radius ETF Forum Panel Discussion: Getting Active with Income June 2014

2 Horizons ETFs Canada AUM Summary 25 Actively Managed ETF listings 51% AUM 18 Benchmark ETF listings 26% AUM 71 ETFs $4.6 Billion AUM 28 Leveraged, Inverse, and Volatility ETF listings 23% AUM As at April 30, 2015 Horizons ETFs is a member of Mirae Asset Global Investments 2

3 Horizons ETFs Canada 2014 Awards 2014 FUNDGRADE A+ AWARDS Winner of 2014 FundGrade A+ Horizons S&P 500 Index ETF (HXS) Winner of 2014 FundGrade A+ Horizons Active Corporate Bond ETF (HAB) 2014 MORNINGSTAR AWARDS* Best Fixed Income ETF Horizons Active Preferred Share ETF (HPR) Best Equity ETF Horizons Active Global Dividend ETF (HAZ) 2014 LIPPER AWARDS Best U.S. Equity ETF Horizons S&P 500 Index ETF (HXS) Best Commodity ETF Horizons NYMEX Crude Oil ETF (HUC) *Morningstar Awards Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Awarded to Horizons Exchange Traded Funds for the Horizons Active Global Dividend ETF ( HAZ ) named Best Equity ETF and the Horizons Active Preferred Share ETF ( HPR ) named Best Fixed Income ETF. The Morningstar fund category awards are based on both quantitative and qualitative criteria and are not solely based on performance. For more information on the Morningstar criteria, methodology and how winners are selected, please visit Horizons ETFs is a member of Mirae Asset Global Investments 3

4 Fiona Wilson Fiona Wilson, MBA, CFA Portfolio Manager - Systematic Strategies Fiona Wilson joined Guardian Capital LP in 2011 as a Portfolio Manager in our systematic strategies team. Fiona began her career as an options trader at CIBC and progressed to become Head of Currency Options Marketing, South East Asia for Societe Generale with postings in Tokyo, Singapore and London. Her experiences included structuring classical and exotic option trading and hedging strategies for central banks, corporate and institutional clients throughout Asia. She subsequently took on the role of Portfolio Manager, Global Derivative Instruments with Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS). Fiona graduated with a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Western Ontario and obtained her Honours Bachelor of Commerce and MBA from the University of Windsor. Fiona is also a CFA Charterholder. 4

5 INK Research Ted Dixon, CEO and Co-Founder, INK Research Corp. Mr. Dixon is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA ) and member of the CFA s Society Vancouver (formerly The Vancouver Society of Financial Analysts). He received his MBA from the University of Chicago. He is a frequent commentator on insider buying in the media, regularly appearing on BNN and in The Globe and Mail. Prior to founding INK Research, Mr. Dixon led portfolio strategy and product development at the Connor, Clark & Lunn Financial Group. He was also previously an analyst with the Fraser Institute and a treasury specialist at TD Bank. Founded in 2004, INK provides Insider News and Knowledge to investors through the commercial monitoring and research on insider trading activity in Canada and recently expanded its coverage to U.S. markets. INK s services, which are available through subscription, strive to give investors, analysts, advisors and institutions signals for growth and value investing through better access and understanding of insider reports. For more information, visit INKResearch.com. 5 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

6 What Is Insider Commitment? The purchase and ownership of shares in a corporation by an officer or director who is an employee of the company A high level of insider commitment may indicate that the management of a company believes in the long-term direction of their organization and that shares are undervalued, whereas low levels of insider commitment may suggest the opposite Insider commitment data can be a powerful confirmation signal of an investment when combined with traditional fundamental valuation factors such as price-to-book, and price momentum indicators (i.e. relative price strength) Insiders who hold equity have a financially vested interest in the success of their firm 6 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

7 The INK Canadian Insider Index The INK Canadian Insider Index (the Index ) is a Canadian equity index which is comprised of 50 equities that provide, in aggregate, diversified Canadian market exposure. The issuers are selected based on INK Research's proprietary INK Edge V.I.P. screening criteria a three category, equal-weight methodology measuring valuations, insider commitment and price momentum. Key Distinguishing Features: Only index in Canada that uses insider commitment as a confirmation signal of whether a stock has true momentum or value potential Constituents are equally weighted on a semi-annual basis Provides broader exposure to mid-cap and small-cap stocks by avoiding the skew and concentration of larger stocks commonly found in market-cap indices (i.e. typically less exposure to large banks) 7 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

8 Rules-Based Index Methodology Market Capitalization A stock must have an outstanding market capitalization of at least $250 million and a float market capitalization of $100 million at the time of inclusion Liquidity A stock must have an average monthly trading value of $2 million or more over the past year and in the month prior to the rebalance A stock must have a minimum share price of $3.00 Transactions A stock must have no more than a maximum of 10 non-trading days in the previous six months, excluding days temporarily halted for a valid reason (i.e. market news) Rebalancing Index constituents are reviewed and updated with each semi-annual rebalance Constituents are equally-weighted using the price at the close of trading on the rebalance date 8 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

9 Finding the Right 50 Stocks All INK selection pool stocks are selected from TSX-listed stocks which are ranked in each of the three INK Edge V.I.P. screening categories: valuation, insider commitment and price momentum Because finding a stock that ranks high in all three categories is rare, INK Research evaluates all three V.I.P. categories equally to get a composite ranking to identify stocks that have the best overall opportunity For each stock, INK determines the percentile rank for the following factors within each V.I.P. category: V Valuation Rankings Trailing 12-month P/E Trailing 12-month price-tobook ratio Trailing 12-month price-tosales ratio Trailing 12-month EV* to EBITDA** Trailing 12-month price-to-cash flow or price-to-cash Shareholder yield (trailing 12-month buyback yield + dividend yield) *Enterprise Value **Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization I Insider Commitment Recent net insider buying dollar amounts; higher weight given to more recent purchases Beneficial insider holdings of equity securities on market cap basis Intensity: level of insider buying by senior executives INK equally weights factors to determine a stock's ranking within each V.I.P. category. Each V.I.P. category is equally weighted to determine a composite ranking for a stock. P Price Momentum Over 3-month period Over 6-month period Over 12-month period 9 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

10 Understanding INK V.I.P. Rankings INK assigns a weather-related outlook to each stock's composite ranking, as well as its ranking in the three categories: Sunny (Most Favourable) Top 10% Mostly Sunny 10% to 30% Mixed 30% to 70% Cloudy 70% to 90% Rainy (Least Favourable) Bottom 10% The Top-50 ranked stocks that have a sunny or mostly sunny outlook and meet the size, liquidity and transaction criteria are eligible to be included at rebalances 10 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

11 Index Constituents Additions and Deletions Additions (Name and Symbol) Dominion Diamond Corporation (DDC) TransGlobe Energy Corporation (TGL) Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR.B) Horizon North Logistics Inc. (HNL) Black Diamond Group Limited (BDI) Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (KGI) Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (AAV) Intact Financial Corporation (IFC) Nevsun Resources Ltd. (NSU) WSP Global Inc. (WSP) Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH) Cameco Corporation (CCO) Premium Brands Holdings Corporation (PBH) High Liner Foods Incorporated (HLF) Deletions (Name and Symbol) TELUS Corporation (T)) Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PPL) Emera Incorporated (EMA) AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ) The Jean Coutu Group (PJC) Inc. (PJC.A) Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust (MRT.UN) Inter Pipeline Ltd. (IPL) Milestone Apartments Real Estate Investment Trust (MST.UN) Fortis Inc. (FTS) Retrocom Real Estate Investment Trust (RMM.UN) Loblaw Companies Limited (L) Cogeco Inc (CGO) Canfor Corporation (CFP) Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (ITP) 11 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

12 Index Constituents as at May 15, 2015 Basic Materials Consumer Non-Cyclicals Utilities Consumer Cyclicals Financials Energy Industrials Agrium Inc. Empire Company Limited ATCO Ltd. Cascades Inc. Winpak Ltd Dominion Diamond Corporation Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. George Weston Limited Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Premium Brands Holdings Corporations High Liner Foods Incorporated Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited Dorel Industries Inc. Easyhome Ltd. Great Canadian Gaming Corporation Linamar Corporation AGF Management Limited Brookfield Asset Management Inc. Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund Dream Global Real Estate Investment Trust Equitable Group Inc. Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. Surge Energy Inc. Western Energy Services Corp TransGlobe Energy Corporation Black Diamond Group Air Canada Exco Technologies Limited Magellan Aerospace Corporation Transcontinental Inc. Chorus Aviation Inc. Technology & Telecom Constellation Software Inc. Quebecor Inc. Nevsun Resources Ltd. Martinrea International Inc. Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited Ensign Energy Services WSP Global Inc. RONA inc. Great-West Lifeco Inc. Cameco Corporation Toromont Industries Ltd. Shaw Communications Inc. Morguard Corporation Torstar Corporation Onex Corporation Uni-Sélect Inc. Intact Financial Corporation Air Boss of America Horizon North Logistics Inc. 12 Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

13 Sector Allocation and Key Index Metrics Annualized Dividend Yield: 2.8% Average Insider Commitment: 16.8% Average Market Capitalization: $5,576.8 (millions) Median Market Capitalization: $1, (millions) Source: INK Research Sector allocation as at last rebalance date, May 15, 2015, rounded to whole percentages, key index metrics as at May 26, Innovation is our capital. Make it yours. HorizonsETFs.com

14 Globalization: Convergence Region, country, size, style diminished as alpha sources Industry group and sector now at the forefront of alpha generation Bottom-up stock selection is key Monthly Top-Down Dispersion as Fraction of Total Dispersion 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Industry Group Sector Style Size Country Region Sources: MSCI World - Morgan Stanley 14

15 Dividends Outperform and Reduce Volatility: U.S. Total Portfolio Returns Standard Deviation Source: All data from Ned Davis Research Inc. Jan 1972 Feb 2015, Equal Weighted,% 15 Copyright 2015 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at For data vendor disclaimers refer to

16 Philosophy: How to capture the jump from bonds to stocks Yield carry and stock selection as alpha drivers rowth Dividend growth is a significant factor for long term returns and depends on consistent earnings growth Emphasis on dividend growth and sustainability through a combination of relative and intrinsic valuations across different Global factor buckets Avoid yield for yield sake by looking at a stocks cash flow visibility and estimation risk of terminal value ayout ustainability Traditional GPS Early Stage Quality over Quantity through balance sheet management A Globally competitive revenue stream and margin efficiency to sustain strong ROE and dividends Steady Growth Rapidly Increasing Growth Mature Growth Investable Universe: All stocks in MSCI ACWI and REITs that pay dividends regardless of where they are on the evolutionary chart 16

17 GPS: Empirical evidence Performance of dividend payers within Broad U.S Market Index Cumulative performance Earnings growth coupled with Dividends performs best Factor Rank IC Top Quintile Dividend Growers (red) out performed Top quintile Earnings growers (green) investors reward a growing and stable payout of earnings strategies ( Orange and Blue) that combine top quartile dividend and earnings growth significantly out perform single factor approaches Companies with high payout ratios almost uniformly underperform avoiding payout tails is important for sustainability of dividends 17

18 Three Primary Dividend Classes High Yield Dividend Achievers Dividend Growers Dividend Payers Low Yield High Growth Low Growth 1. Dividend Payers High yield, stable cash flow, modest dividend growth Cash flow allocated primarily to dividends and balance for debt re-placement and capex 2. Dividend Growers Low to Median yield, good cash flow growth, solid dividend growth Cash flow allocated evenly to dividends and re-investment for further growth, uses buybacks also Dividend Achievers Lower yields, steady cash flow growth, residual policy for dividends Cash flow allocated primarilyto re-investment for growth and meet payout targets, uses buybacks significantly

19 19 Portfolio Positioning - HAZ

20 Fed is not everything, it s the only thing? Fwd. 12 m P/E of High Quality by earnings variability VS Low Quality stocks B+ or Better B or Worse Fed rate cut Fiscal Stimulus Gov't bailout 1.2 QE2 LTRO QE When bad quality fell, external stimulus through rate cuts, QE has always caused the valuation gap to widen, keeping bad companies afloat longer than necessary. When stimulus cycle subsides quality stocks will see a higher re-rating as they can fund their own growth and sustain their cash flows. 20 It s based on the BofAMLUS Coverage Universe and we pull the S&P Quality Rank for each stock. (These ranks are based on a 10 year history of earningsand dividend stability; B+ or better we consider high quality and B or worse we consider low quality). We take the relative forward P/E for each bucket. The calculation is (Average Market Cap for B+ or Better Stocks/Average Market Cap for BofAMLUniverse ) divided by (Average Net Income for B+ or Better Bucket/ Average Net Income for BofAMLUniverse ). That s to get blue line (relative PE for B+ or Better ), then the same is done for B or worse universe.

21 Volatility Could Continue To Increase Yield Curve (Inverted, with 2- year lead) vs. VIX 21 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy, CBOE, S&P

22 Quality: Hedge against equity volatility Correlation of BofAML Quality Indices 12-month returns to 12-month changes in VIX 22 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy, CBOE, S&P

23 A fundamental mispricing of risk Price Beta vs. Earnings risk for S&P 500 Sectors 23 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy

24 Tech Stocks are the New Dividend Payers Tech Companies Are Cash Rich Source: Cornerstone Macro, January 2015, Benchmark: S&P 500 Tech Dividends Are Fairly Reliable Source: Cornerstone Macro, January 2015, Benchmark: S&P Source: Cornerstone Macro, January 2015, Benchmark: S&P 500

25 Disclaimer Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with an investment in exchange traded products managed by AlphaPro Management Inc and Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc. (the "Horizons Exchange Traded Products"). The Horizons Exchange Traded Products are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Certain Horizons Exchange Traded Products may have exposure to leveraged investment techniques that magnify gains and losses which may result in greater volatility in value and could be subject to aggressive investment risk and price volatility risk, which are described in their respective prospectuses. The Prospectuses contain important detailed information about the Horizons Exchange Traded Products. Please read the relevant prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return shown are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in per unit value and reinvestment of all dividends and distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Standard & Poor s and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard and Poor s Financial Services LLC ( S&P ) and TSX is a registered trademark of TSX Inc. ( TSX ). These marks have been licensed for use by AlphaPro Management Inc. and Horizons ETFs Management (Canada) Inc., where applicable. The Horizons Exchange Traded Products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by S&P or TSX and their affiliated companies and none of these parties make any representation, warranty or condition regarding the advisability of buying, selling or holding units/shares in the Horizons Exchange Traded Products. All trademarks/service marks are registered by their respective owners. None of the owners thereof or any of their affiliates sponsor, endorse, sell, promote or make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in the Horizons Exchange Traded Products. Complete trademark and service-mark information is available at Horizons ETFs is a member of Mirae Asset Global Investments 25