How To Know If Netflix 2.0 Is A Success

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1 Leichtman Research Group, Inc. Research Notes 3Q 2013 Actionable Research on the Broadband, Media & Entertainment Industries In this issue: Netflix 2.0 (Years Later) W Netflix 2.0 (Years Later) Over Three- Quarters of U.S. Households Get Broadband at Home Major Multi-Channel Video Providers Lost About 345,000 Subscribers in 2Q % of TV Households Subscribe to a Multi- Channel Video Service About 295,000 Add Broadband in the Second Quarter of 2013 Industry by the Numbers hen last we wrote a column about Netflix in these Research Notes, the Company had just gone through a series of self-inflicted wounds that left it weakened, and its future cloudy. Fastforward two years, and we see that Netflix has more than rebounded, both in terms of its valuation, and its overall impact on the industry. In a relatively short time, Netflix has transformed itself from its legacy as a DVDdelivery company, into a leader in the streaming media business. The problems of two years ago (on the surface) appear to be largely in the rear-view mirror. It now seems like a long time ago, but it was in July 2011 when Netflix separated its DVD business from its streaming business. This essentially raised the price of subscribing to Netflix by 60%; briefly created a separate DVDby-mail service named Qwikster; and in the course of just over three months brought the Market Cap of the Company from $14 billion down to $6 billion. While the Company struggled to regain its footing through the next year, 2013 has been an accelerated uphill climb for the Company s stock, starting the year below 100, and reaching an all-time high price above 300 in Mid-September. Netflix began October with a Market Cap of more than $19 billion. The evolution of Netflix into a streaming company can be seen in its quarterly results over the past two years. In Q2 2013, Netflix reported having 29.8 million domestic streaming subscribers (with about 4% not paying for the service) an increase from 21.4 million at the end of Q In Q2 2013, Netflix reported having 7.5 million domestic DVD subscribers a decrease from 13.9 million at the end of Q But these figures only show a part of the change. An LRG study from earlier this year found that: 73% of Netflix subscribers stream video from Netflix at least on a weekly basis up from 55% in 2011, and 27% in 2010 With the growth in Netflix s subscriber base, this extrapolates to 22% of all adults in the US streaming Netflix video weekly up from 12% in 2011, and 4% in 2010 When people talk about over-the-top (OTT) content, the list should start with Page 1

2 Netflix and YouTube, with all others trailing as if they were the Houston Astros competing for an AL championship. In terms of long-form video content, a recent LRG survey found that Netflix subscribers are three times more likely to watch a full-length TV show online each week than are non- Netflix subscribers. Now, more than ever before, Netflix has become a prime component for those who do not subscribe to a multichannel video service. LRG s surveys found that: 40% of non-subscribers to a multichannel video service get Netflix up from 25% in % of Netflix subscribers with a multi-channel video service stream Netflix daily compared to 58% of Netflix subscribers who do not get a multi-channel video service While Netflix may be an important source of content for those who do not subscribe to a multi-channel video service, it is not necessarily the prime motivator for people not to subscribe to a multi-channel service (just 5% of all non-subscribers cite Netflix as the reason for not-subscribing). In addition, the percentage of Netflix subscribers getting a multi-channel video service is similar to two years ago. Netflix subscribers also remain more likely than other multi-channel video subscribers to get a premium service, and Netflix subscribers getting a premium service have actually increased in recent years. Netflix has clearly made significant gains over the past two years. The Company s subscriber base has increased both domestically and internationally; usage of the streaming service has increased; the reputation of the brand has largely been restored; and it even had an original show (House of Cards) that won Emmys awards even if it didn t win any of the major ones. But there are some aspects of the Company that may not be readily apparent, and/or some choose to ignore. Netflix has changed some ways that it reports results from two years ago. The Company no longer reports subscriber acquisition cost, churn, total domestic revenue, or revenue per subscriber. Yet total domestic revenue (the combination of streaming and DVD revenue), and ARPU are fairly easy to calculate. We see that: Total domestic revenue was $903 million in Q compared to $824 million in Q2 2012, and $770 million in Q Based on an estimate of total subscribers, ARPU per domestic paying subscriber (not including free subscribers) was about $9.95 per month in 2Q 2013 compared to $11.01 in 2Q 2012, and $11.49 in 2Q 2011 Did you know? TiVo has 981,000 standalone DVR subscribers compared to a peak of 1,745,000 in 4Q 2007 (the company has reported net losses for stand-alone DVRs in every quarter since then). Page 2

3 The shift from DVDs to streaming has increased the subscriber base, but it has also resulted in a gradual decline in the revenue per subscriber. And while Netflix no longer reports churn, this remains a major component of subscription businesses (and one that tends to increase with lower prices). A look back finds that, including free subscribers, Netflix s annual domestic churn was about 50% in 2010, and about 70% in While it is likely that churn has calmed down from two years ago, it is probably still similar to 2010 levels. Despite revamping of the Company into Netflix 2.0, and an impressive stock market performance over the past year, this combination of lower ARPU, and ongoing high churn rates, along with increasing expenses present challenges for Netflix s business model going forward. As noted two years ago, the final part of the Netflix case study is still yet to be written. Over Three-Quarters of U.S. Households Get Broadband at Home L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that about 78% of US households get a broadband Internet service at home. Broadband now accounts for 94% of all households with Internet service at home an increase from 92% last year, 75% in 2008, and 33% in Overall, 83% of households get an Internet service at home, and 55% of adults access the Internet on a Smartphone. While the percentage of According to a recent Leichtman Research Group (LRG) study on U.S. broadband, there are 82.4 million subscribers among the 17 largest cable and telephone providers in the country. - TMCnet October 2, 2013 households getting Internet service at home is similar to last year, those accessing the Internet on a Smartphone increased from 44% last year. These findings are based on a telephone survey of 1,304 households from throughout the United States and are part of a new LRG study, Broadband Access & Services in the Home This is LRG's eleventh annual study on this topic. Other related findings include: 9% of all households get broadband, but do not subscribe to a multichannel video service compared to 8% the past two years 64% of broadband subscribers also access the Internet on a Smartphone compared to 52% last year 19% of all not online at home access the Internet on a Smartphone compared to 12% last year 1% of households paid to subscribe to Internet service at home in the past year, do not currently subscribe, Page 3

4 U.S. cable and satellite TV operators took it on the chin again in the historically weak second quarter, while the telcos pulled in some solid subscriber gains, Leichtman Research Group found in its latest analysis of the pay-tv industry. The thirteen-largest multi-channel video providers in the U.S., representing 94% of the market, lost a combined 345,000 net video subs in the second quarter, which is typically plagued by seasonality as college students and snowbirds churn out. That compares to the 325,000 subs those providers lost in the second quarter of 2012 and 2011, LRG said. - Multichannel News August 19, 2013 and do not plan to subscribe again in the next six months Less than 1% of all online households say that broadband is not available in their area compared to 6% in % of households with annual incomes <$30,000 do not use a laptop or desktop computer at home compared to 8% with incomes >$30,000 1% of all households have an ipad or tablet, but do not use a desktop or laptop computer While overall online penetration at home has flattened, broadband has grown by attracting previous narrowband customers, late-adopters of online at home, and movers into new households. Despite an increasingly limited base of potential new subscribers, and some consumers opting to solely access the Internet on a Smartphone, broadband will continue to grow at a modest pace for the next few years. Major Multi-channel Video Providers Lost About 345,000 Subscribers in 2Q 2013 L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that the thirteen largest multichannel video providers in the US representing about 94% of the market lost about 345,000 net additional video subscribers in 2Q In 2Q 2012 and in 2Q 2011, the multi-channel video industry lost about 325,000 subscribers. The top multi-channel video providers account for nearly 94.6 million subscribers with the top nine cable companies having about 50.5 million video subscribers, satellite TV companies having over 34 million subscribers, and top telephone companies having over 10 million subscribers. Other key findings include: The top nine cable companies lost about 555,000 video subscribers in 2Q 2013 compared to a loss of about 540,000 subscribers in 2Q 2012 The top telephone providers added 373,000 video subscribers in 2Q 2013 compared to 275,000 net additions in 2Q 2012 Page 4

5 Satellite TV providers lost 162,000 subscribers in 2Q 2013 compared to a loss of 62,000 in 2Q 2012 o Although just the third time DBS providers reported net quarterly losses, total DBS net losses in 2Q 2013 were the highest in any quarter since LRG began tracking the industry over a decade ago Over the past year, multi-channel video providers lost about 100,000 subscribers, compared to a gain of about 380,000 over the prior year o DirecTV added 107,000 subscribers over the past year compared to 481,000 over the prior year The traditionally weak second quarter proved to be a down quarter for the multi-channel industry, but industrywide losses were similar to recent second quarters. The multi-channel video industry has leveled-off, with major providers losing about 0.1% of all subscribers over the past year. 86% of TV Households Subscribe to a Multi- Channel Video Service L eichtman Research Group, Inc. finds that 86% of households nationwide subscribe to some form of multi-channel video service. While major multi-channel video providers reported a cumulative increase of less than 1% of subscribers over the past three years, penetration has slightly declined over that time due to a larger increase in the number of rental housing units. Multi-channel video penetration essentially peaked at 88% in 2010 following the digital transition, having increased from 82% in Among TV households that do not currently subscribe to a multi-channel video service, 40% subscribe to Netflix, 11% to Amazon Prime, and 7% to Hulu Plus in total, 42% of non-subscribers get at least one of these three over-thetop (OTT) services, and 58% of nonsubscribers do not get any. Overall, this results in 8% of all TV households watching over-the-air (OTA) broadcast TV only (down from 10% in 2010), and 6% watching a combination of OTA and OTT programming. This group includes about 1% of all household that do not subscribe to a multi-channel video service primarily because they can watch all that they want via the Internet or Netflix. Did you know? Four of the top six multi-channel video providers are not traditional cable companies. These findings are based on a telephone survey of 1,319 households from throughout the United States, and are part of a new LRG study, Cable, DBS & Telcos: Competing for Customers This is LRG's eleventh annual study of this topic. Page 5

6 Other related findings include: Nationwide, 20% of TV households with annual incomes <$50,000 are non-subscribers, compared to 9% with incomes >$50,000 a division that has been fairly consistent for years Mean reported monthly spending on multi-channel video service is $83.25 an increase of 5.9% from last year Multi-channel video subscribers with household incomes >$50,000 spend 18% more per month than those with incomes <$50,000 10% of non-subscribers had subscribed to a multi-channel video service in the past year, and 7% plan to subscribe to a service in the next six months Overall, about 1.4% of all TV households paid to subscribe to a service in the past year, but currently do not a similar rate to the past five years 5% of current multi-channel video subscribers did not subscribe at some time in the past two years and just watched programs from the Internet instead The number of households subscribing to a multi-channel video service is slightly higher than it was three years ago, yet the penetration of households subscribing to a service is now below its peak. While some consumers continue to go in and out of the category, economic factors appear to be as a strong force in shaping this market as the emergence of over-the-top alternatives alone. Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for LRG said, While some consumers continue to go in and out of the category, economic factors appear to be as strong a force in shaping this market as the emergence of overthe-top alternatives alone. - CED Magazine September 16, 2013 About 295,000 Add Broadband in the Second Quarter of 2013 L eichtman Research Group, Inc. found that the seventeen largest cable and telephone providers in the US representing about 93% of the market acquired about 295,000 net additional high-speed Internet subscribers in the second quarter of These top broadband providers now account for over 82.7 million subscribers with top cable companies having over 47.8 million broadband subscribers, and top telephone companies having nearly 34.9 million subscribers. Page 6

7 Other broadband findings for the quarter include: Overall, broadband additions in 2Q 2013 amounted to 116% of those in 2Q 2012 The top cable companies added about 296,000 subscribers, representing 91% as many additions as in 2Q 2012 The top telephone companies lost about 2,000 subscribers compared to a loss of about 73,000 in 2Q 2012 AT&T and Verizon added 802,000 fiber subscribers in the quarter (via U-verse and FiOS), while having a net loss of 818,000 DSL subscribers AT&T has reported net broadband losses in six of the past nine quarters The top cable broadband providers have a 58% share of the overall market, with about 13 million more subscribers than the top telephone companies compared to 11.2 million more a year ago About 78% of U.S. households are equipped with a broadband Internet service, but the overall proportion of households with an Internet connection at home has leveled off to about 83%, about the same as last year, according to a new survey from the Leichtman Research Group (LRG). - Multichannel News September 26, 2013 The second quarter of the year is traditionally the slowest quarter of the year for broadband additions, and this year was no exception. For the third time in the past four years, Telcos cumulatively reported small net broadband losses in the second quarter. Over the past year, cable companies have accounted for 85% of the 2,600,000 net broadband additions. Page 7

8 Industry by the Numbers (as of the end of 2Q 2013) Top Cable MSOs in the U.S. Basic Cable Broadband Internet* Telephone** Net Adds Net Adds Passings Subscribers Penetration in 2Q 2013 in 2Q ,700,000 50,490, % (555,000) (540,000) 121,200,000 47,535, % 295, , ,600,000 24,550, % 190, ,000 Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. Totals include LRG estimates and pro forma results from system sales and acquisitions. * Internet data does not include RCN ** Telephone data does not include Bright House Networks DBS Net Adds Gross Adds Subscriber Average Revenue Subscribers in 2Q 2013 in 2Q 2013 Acquisition Cost* Per Sub/Month** DIRECTV Dish Network 20,021,000 (84,000) 839,000 $888 $ ,014,000 (78,000) 624,000 $882 $80.90 Total DBS 34,035,000 (162,000) 1,463,000 Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. * Includes leased equipment and unreturned box costs ** Includes revenue from commercial accounts and other non-consumer spending Telco Video Verizon FiOS AT&T U-verse Total Net Adds Net Adds Subscribers in 2Q 2013 in 2Q ,035, , ,000 5,001, , ,000 10,036, , ,000 Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. Data includes LRG estimates of pro forma results from system sales Page 8

9 U.S. Residential Telephone Lines Gains and Losses 2Q Q Q Q Q 2013 Telco Net Adds* Cable Net Adds (1,011,000) (986,000) (886,000) (894,000) (883,000) 280, , , , ,000 Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. * Retail residential phone lines include both primary and additional lines, but do not include wholesale lines Includes LRG estimates and some results adjusted from prior reports Top Broadband Internet Providers in the U.S. Broadband Internet Provider Subscribers at the end of 2Q 2013 Net Adds in 2Q 2013 Cable Companies Comcast 19,986, ,000 Time Warner 11,559,000 21,000 Charter 4,138,000 52,000 Cablevision 3,087,000 1,000 Suddenlink 1,017,200 (9,000) Mediacom 949,000 9,000 Cable ONE 464, Other Major Private Companies** 6,664,000 35,000 Total Top Cable 47,864, ,566 Telephone Companies AT&T 16,453,000 (61,000) Verizon 8,939,000 45,000 CenturyLink^ 5,909,000 (8,400) Frontier^^ 1,781,500 29,500 Windstream 1,194,500 (11,400) FairPoint 332,620 2,538 Cincinnati Bell 261,700 1,500 Total Top Phone 34,871,320 (2,262) Total Broadband 82,735, ,304 Sources: The Companies and Leichtman Research Group, Inc. * Cablevision includes estimate for former Bresnan properties sold to Charter on 7/1/2013 ** Includes LRG estimates for Cox, Bright House Networks and RCN Cable totals do not include WOW with 709,000 subscribers ^ CenturyLink slightly adjusted totals from previous quarters ^^ LRG estimate, does not include wireless subscribers Totals reflect pro forma results from system sales and acquisitions Top cable and telephone companies represent approximately 93% of all subscribers Company subscriber counts may not represent solely residential households Page 9