Predictive Asset Maintenance

Transcription

1 Predictive Asset Maintenance Role of Business Analytics

2 Intelligence Framework ASSET INTELLIGENCE Optimisation What is the best that could happen? Business Maturity & Value DCS Historian Vibration Data Standardized and Cleaned data Business Business Analytics Analytics Trends, Parameter Charts OEE, MTBF, MTTR Std reports Predictive modelling Descriptive modelling What will happen? Why did it happen? What happened? Data Aggregation Data Information Knowledge Intelligence

3 Maintenance Strategy - Relying on Tradition Data Information Intelligence Historian Digital Control Vibration Monitor Trending Upper Threshold Lower Threshold GAP Rich Average??

4 Maintenance Strategy The Direction Early warning based identification of likelihood of equipment failure Prioritize problems based on financial and HSE Impact Determine root cause more quickly outside the design envelope Provide automated asset reports across various units and equipments with alerts on thresholds Provide a collaborative environment integrating operations and maintenance engineers

5 When failure is not an option, Assets / Plants opt for predictive analytics!!

6 Maintenance Strategies The Direction Predictive Component Progression to Failure Predictive Analytics Failure Symptoms Condition Monitoring DCS Alarm Trip Reactive Maintenance Cost X Failure

7 Maintenance Strategy - Systemic Approach Data Refinement Driven Driven Predictive Predictive Modeling Modeling Predictive Model RCA Alert Acquire and Analyze, Manage Predict and Alert Performance Management Measure & Measure & Manage Manage Understand, Act and Adapt Optimize and Inform Maintenance Model Management Logistics Achieve Achieve

8 Data Driven Modeling Objectives: Unplanned shutdown Factors: Flow rate Temp Pressure Vibration Speed Current Responses: Corrected Power Corrected Heat Rate Capacity e.g., Trip Event = ƒ{ }

9 Predictive Models deployed as a systematic, automated, asset wise monitoring and alerting process...

10 enable pro active management of critical health status by system, location, configuration, unit organization, etc. Magnitude assessment based on failure criticality, readiness impacts, financial impact, operational impacts, etc.

11 RCA Real Time Visualization

12 RCA - Symptom Tags Development Tag 1 unstable! time Tag n high! unstable! time low! high!

13 RCA Time Based Cluster Plot Incident Normal Operation Known Incidents/Defects M&D Data, Conditions time What happened here?

14 RCA Identifying linkages within statistical symptoms

15 RCA Understanding Cause and Effect

16 Maintenance Strategy - Systemic Approach Data Refinement Driven Driven Predictive Predictive Modeling Modeling Predictive Model RCA Alert Acquire and Analyze, Manage Predict and Alert Performance Management Measure & Measure & Manage Manage Understand, Act and Adapt Optimize and Inform Maintenance Model Management Logistics Shutdown Shutdown

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18 Ongoing monitoring and assessment of changes in equipment performance, availability and readiness, and financial impacts are critical CBM reporting and performance management requirements.

19 Additional examples of CBM reporting and performance management information.

20 Additional examples of CBM reporting and performance management information.

21 Maintenance Strategy - Systemic Approach Data Refinement Predictive Model Acquire and Analyze, Manage Predict and Alert Performance Management Measure & Measure & Manage Manage Understand, Act and Adapt Driven Driven Predictive Predictive Modeling Modeling Predictive Model RCA Alert Optimize and Inform Maintenance Model Management Logistics Shutdown Shutdown

22 False Alarm Hit Rate (True Positives)

23 Total lifecycle management of CBM predictive models, from development to deployment to retirement, provide systematic quality control.

24 Maintenance Strategy - Systemic Approach Data Refinement Driven Driven Predictive Predictive Modeling Modeling Predictive Model RCA Alert Acquire and Analyze, Manage Predict and Alert Performance Management Measure & Measure & Manage Manage Understand, Act and Adapt Optimize and Inform Maintenance Model Management Logistics Shutdown Shutdown

25 Asset Integrity Data Model Business Rules & Processes Sensor/condition data Maintenance Records Asset Data (origin, options, etc..) Financial Data Operations Data Asset Integrity Data Repository Test Cell and Reliability Data Operator Data & Complaints Inspection Records Technician/Engineer Data External data

26 Maintenance Strategy - Systemic Approach Data Refinement Driven Driven Predictive Predictive Modeling Modeling Predictive Model RCA Alert Acquire and Analyze, Manage Predict and Alert Performance Management Measure & Measure & Manage Manage Understand, Act and Adapt Optimize and Inform Maintenance Model Management Logistics Shutdown Shutdown

27 Strategy to Execution Dashboard Monitoring Reports Alerts Predictive Modeling Model Shutdown Management Predictive Asset Maintenance Business Rules & Processes Sensor/condition data Maintenance Records Asset Data (origin, options, etc..) Financial Data Operations Data Asset Integrity Data Repository Test Cell and Reliability Data Operator Data & Complaints Inspection Records Technician/Engineer Data External data

28 Thank You