MIT- CEEPR Workshop. The EU ETS: Perspective and Lessons Hamilton Crowne Plaza Hotel Washington, DC January 24-25, 2008
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1 MIT- CEEPR Workshop The EU ETS: Perspective and Lessons Hamilton Crowne Plaza Hotel Washington, DC January 24-25, 2008 Session 4 : CO2 Price Effects on the German Power Sector - Comments Dr. Jean-Yves CANEILL, EDF Direction du Développement Durable
2 Is emission trading leading to higher electricity prices? Changes in electricity prices will not be a consequence of emissions trading, but of implementation of a carbon constraint in the economy Goods that contain more carbon will be relatively more expensive than goods that contain less carbon. As the trading scheme is the cheapest way to implement the quantitative constraint, it means that any price changes should be the lowest necessary Pricing decisions in the liberalised power market are increasingly complex and difficult to predict Many events directly affect the electricity prices, emission trading is just one of them Interpreted from Source: European Commission, MEMO/05/84, Brussels, 08 March 2005
3 Tackling with an «unfinished» market real situation Need to take into consideration the different market areas The carbon content of each zone Is different Each market zone behaves differently and between them access constraints exist Etude Global Insight Impact CO2 dans prix de gros :
4 Simulations of emissions trading markets The GETS experiments «Greenhouse gas emissions and Energy (Electricity) Trading Simulations» GETS 1 (1999) GETS 2 (2000) GETS 3 (2001) GETS 3bis (2002)
5 Main Results & Next Steps GETS 1 (1999) Most companies traded CO 2 actively and learnt quickly how to include the price signal into their strategies Trading per se was not a problem Investment, not trading, delivered compliance at the end; emissions trading helped to lower the cost of compliance Power prices increased regularly during the simulation
6 Electricity price evolution Electricity trading GETS 1 (1999) MWh Euro/MWh
7 GETS 1 (1999) Observation on the electricity prices On the average electricity prices varied from 38,1 euros/mwh to 51.5 euros/mwh; i.e. a difference of 13.4 euros The average price of CO2 in the last sessions was 48.4 euros/tco2 The new generated mix has shown 0,259 tons CO2 per. MWh «CO2 value» of 1 generated MWh 12,56 euros
8 GETS 2 (2000) 110% 105% 100% 95% Carbon Intensity Three simulation were run to improve assumptions (e.g. allocation) 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Gets2.1 Gets2.2 Gets2.3
9 GETS 2 (2000) Electricity prices ELECTRICITY PRICES EVOLUTION AS SEEN IN GETS-2 EXPERIMENTS Euros par MWh Gets2.1 Gets2.2 Gets ELE00 ELE01 ELE02 ELE03 ELE04 ELE05 ELE06 ELE07 ELE08 ELE09 ELE10 ELE11 ELE12 Contrats
10 Main Result GETS 2 (2000) Companies investments drive environmental compliance...the emissions trading market allows them to integrate fully environmental goals into business strategies and decision making..and electricity prices again increased!
11 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Impact on the offer (merit order) Actor constrained on its CO2 emissions CO2 opportunity cost linked to : buying an allowance to generate or selling an allowance and not generate Increased in proportional costs = f (specific CO2 emissions, CO2 price)
12 Evolution comparée des prix des commodités Charbon et Gaz (Forward 1Month) avec celle du forward annuel du CO2 1ère période EU-ETS /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/2007 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Drivers of the electricity prices increase TFS Coal API#2 in US Dollars per Tonne Week Average Platts Power - Germany Baseload 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average Platts Natural Gas - Germany Bunde 1-Month Euro in EUR per GIG Week Average Prix forward CO2 Point Carbon en Allemagne en /t (charbon) ou /MWh (gaz) ou /tco2 (Forward CO2) ou /MWh (Prix Elec) CO2 price as well as fuel costs are drivers of the electricity price evolution données EnergyDataBase et Point Carbon
13 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Transfer of CO2 price in power prices en /MWh Royaume-Uni Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2" données EnergyDataBase Platts Power - UK GTMA 1-Month Baseload in GBP per MWH Week Average Estimation RegLinéaire - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average en /MWh Allemagne Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2" données EnergyDataBase Platts Power - Germany Baseload 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average Estimation RegLinéaire - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS 10 1er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/2007 Transfer of CO2 prices in wholesale electricity market prices have evolved largely in time and space function of 2 terms : /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/2007 Carbon risk exposure of a specific market area CO2 index Possibility for actors to transfer totally or partially CO2 in their power prices pass-through electricity price difference (in /MWh) = pass-through CO2 price (in %) x CO2 price (in /tco2) x CO2 index (in tco2/mwh) Transfer of CO2 price in the market price can enhance or attenuate price differences between market areas impact on interconnections / exchange level
14 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market UK Evolution of running monthly averages of baseload electricity prices (real data and theoretical assessment without CO2) Royaume-Uni Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2" données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon en /MWh Platts Power - UK GTMA 1-Month Baseload in GBP per MWH Week Average Estimation RegLinéaire - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS /01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07
15 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Germany Evolution of running monthly averages of baseload electricity prices (real data and theoretical assessment without CO2) Allemagne Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2" données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon Platts Power - Germany Baseload 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average Estimation RegLinéaire - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et 2007 en /MWh er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS /01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07
16 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market UK Evolution of running monthly averages of peak load electricity prices (real data and theoretical assessment without CO2) Royaume-Uni Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Pointe 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2" données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon en /MWh Platts Power - UK GTMA 1-Month Peak in GBP per MWH Week Average Estimation RegLinéaire - UK 1-Month Peak Week Average EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - UK 1-Month Peak Week Average Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS /01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07
17 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Germany Evolution of running monthly averages of peak load electricity prices (real data and theoretical assessment without CO2) Allemagne Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Pointe 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2" données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon Platts Power - Germany Peak 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average Estimation RegLinéaire - Germany 1-Month Peak Week Average EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - Germany 1-Month Peak Week Average Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et en /MWh er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS /01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07
18 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Clean Spread Definition of «Spreads» Rough margin correponding to the difference between electricity price and variable costs (fuel costs) : Spread = Price_Elec Price_Fuel Coal «Dark Spread» Gas «Spark Spread» Definition of «Clean Spreads» Including CO2 component : Clean Spread = Spread Coef_CO2 * Price CO2 Coal «Clean Dark Spread» Gas «Clean Spark Spread» Used to assess on the interest to switch Gas Coal are potentially «drivers» of the carbon pricing on the CO2 market Clean Spread Gas = Clean Spread Coal Theoretical price for Gas-Coal arbitrage : Theoretical CO2 Price = (Spread Coal Spread Gas ) / (Coef_CO2 Coal Coef_CO2 Gas )
19 Royaume-Uni Evolution des Clean Spark et Dark Spreads BASE (valeurs moyennes hebdomadaires) Equality of Clean Spreads happen more clearly : In summer On peak load electricity products 05/01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/2007 en /MWh Clean Dark Spread UK en /MWh Clean Spark Spread UK en /MWh Royaume-Uni Evolution des Clean Spark et Dark Spreads POINTE (valeurs moyennes hebdomadaires) 100 Link between CO2 price and price difference between gas and coal : Real in 1st semester 2005 None in winter 2005/06 Elastic in 1st quarter 2006 and broken after the CO2 market «krack» /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/2007 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Theoretical CO2 price for Coal-Gas arbitrage Clean Spread en /MWh -20 Clean Dark Spread UK en /MWh Clean Spark Spread UK en /MWh
20 90 Comparaison entre prix CO2 réalisés et prix théoriques d'inversion Charbon-Gaz en UK et en Allemagne déc-03 janv-04 févr-04 mars-04 avr-04 mai-04 juin-04 juil-04 août-04 sept-04 oct-04 nov-04 déc-04 janv-05 févr-05 mars-05 avr-05 mai-05 juin-05 juil-05 août-05 sept-05 oct-05 nov-05 déc-05 janv-06 févr-06 mars-06 avr-06 mai-06 juin-06 juil-06 août-06 sept-06 oct-06 nov-06 déc-06 janv-07 févr-07 mars-07 avr-07 mai-07 juin-07 juil-07 août-07 sept-07 oct-07 nov-07 déc-07 Coupling CO2 market / electricity market Theoretical CO2 price for Coal-Gas arbitrage Clean Spread Prix CO2 réalisés (Pt Carbon) Prix CO2 théorique d'inversion Charbon-Gaz en UK Prix CO2 théorique d'inversion Charbon-Gaz en Allemagne en /tco2-10 Link between CO2 price and Coal/Gas spread starts No link with Coal/Gas spread Link again and absence of link with Coal/Gas spread Theoretical CO2 price is even negative!
21 CONCLUSIONS 1. Whatever the allocation chosen electricity price effects will not disappear 2. Key principles for allocation are equitable treatment between sectors, predictability and, where possible, harmonisation 3. All participants in ETS receive a grant through free allocation 4. Rational economic behaviour argues in favor of realising this value - the ability to realize this is determined by whether product prices are set globally or regionally 5. At the end of the day the urgent need for investments in generation capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will drive the electricity price evolution accordingly
22 Favouring long term marginal costs consideration and making the scheme more incentivising for investments Changing progressively free allocation rules by moving towards auctioning allowances, provided that national specificities are taken into account in the necessary European harmonisation requirement (down to no free allocation in the long term) together with targets dynamics in line with realistic technological pathways Reasons : - giving the right signal for investment (CO2 valuation in full costs) - escape from the present «new projects/entrants rules»
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