SANTA ANITA DERBY WAGERING GUIDE

Transcription

1 SANTA ANITA DERBY WAGERING GUIDE XPRESS ( ) National gambling support line

2 Hello Race Fans! Welcome to the first edition of Xpressbet s Santa Anita Derby Wagering Guide! As the culminating race of Santa Anita s three-year-old Triple Crown prep series, the Grade 1, $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby is a key 1 1/8-mile test that will help determine which horses will continue along the path to Churchill Downs, Pimlico and Belmont Park. To help you separate the contenders from the pretenders in this year s Santa Anita Derby, we ve produced this handy Wagering Guide so that you can bet the race with confidence. Our Santa Anita Derby Wagering Guide was written with you, the Bettor, in mind. With nearly a decade of experience in producing big race Wagering Guides, we strive to provide you with the information, statistics and insights you need to solve the Santa Anita Derby puzzle. Inside this Guide, you ll find Race Analysis, Contender Profiles and Value Plays, along with a $100 Wagering Strategy to help you play the race intelligently. At Xpressbet, we do more than simply process your wagers. To us, it s important that we arm our customers with the best handicapping information available. Take a look at our free Daily Picks, access the products in our Pro Shop and read our free Wagering Guides. Hopefully they ll help you cash a few wagers. Bet the Santa Anita Derby with Xpressbet on your computer or mobile device on Saturday, April 5, and we hope our Wagering Guide will help you pinpoint the winner. Plus, play the races with us that day and not only will you receive XB Rewards Points for all of your bets, but in addition you ll also earn Double XB Rewards Points for your Santa Anita Pick 4 wagers. Be sure to come back in May and June and download our famous Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes Wagering Guides. Good Racing Luck! The Xpressbet Team XPRESS ( )

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4 Get to know the Horses 1. Rprettyboyfloyd (20/1) Owner: Karl Pergola Trainer: Denise E. Breuer Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Horses that seem to grab defeat from the hands of victory are always a hazard for bettors, and RPRETTYBOYFLOYD may just be that type of horse. Winless in 5 career starts, he has run second 4 times and appeared on his way to victory in each of his most recent starts, but ultimately lost photo finishes in each. That s never a good sign. With those defeats, he s not the type of horse you can trust to win this race, but he should be a consideration in exotic wagers. He has kept good company throughout his career, and even placed in the Grade 2 San Vicente in February, demonstrating he can run with talented horses. Top rider Rafael Bejarano is back in the saddle, and that s reason to believe RPRETTYBOYFLOYD may run a strong race this afternoon. 2. Friendswith K Mill (20/1) Owner: Neil Haymes, Dave Kenney & Wonderland Racing Stables Trainer: Doug F. O Neill Jockey: Tyler Baze While trainer Doug O Neill has won back-to-back renditions of this race, a win this year with FRIENDSWITH K MILL would be nothing short of shocking. This son of Flashy Bull needed 4 tries to secure his first victory, and ultimately did so in a maiden claiming event here on the turf. He stepped up nicely last time out to run a good second to Bob Baffert s The Admiral on the dirt, but that race appears to be the anomaly on his resume and it s tough to trust that he ll improve off that effort. It is a plus that Tyler Baze got to know him last time, but unless a lot of chips fall into place he doesn t appear to be a legitimate threat to the top contenders in here. 3. Hoppertunity (3/1) Owner: Karl Watson, Michael Pegram & Paul Weitman Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith Super-trainer Bob Baffert has been playing musical chairs with his three-year-olds for the past few weeks, and ultimately landed on HOPPERTUNITY as his A horse for this race. It feels like a good fit. HOPPERTUNITY splashed home over a wet track to win last month s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, defeating highly-touted three-year-olds Tapiture, Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin in the process. The key to his victory that day was jockey Mike Smith keeping HOPPERTUNITY closer to the early pace he seems to be the type of horse that can get lost if left with too much work to do late so look for them to employ that tactic again this afternoon. Baffert has won this race a record 6 times and HOPPERTUNITY gives him a good chance for lucky number Big Tire (20/1) Owner: Halo Farms Trainer: Mark Glatt Jockey: Edwin Maldonado Some horses are simply better on certain surfaces, and the past performances indicate that BIG TIRE is at home on the dirt. After making his first 3 starts on the lawn, trainer Mark Glatt moved BIG TIRE to the dirt with nearly immediate success. He finally broke through to win last time out, which is a good sign for his backers this afternoon. This son of Candy Ride appears to want to sit close to the pace, but may not have the natural speed of some of his rivals here, putting Edwin Maldonado in a precarious position of placing the horse forwardly without using too much horse early. If he is able to carve out the right trip, there s no reason BIG TIRE can t secure a finish in the Trifecta or Superfecta.

5 Get to know the Horses 5. California Chrome (6/5) Owner: Steven Coburn & Perry Martin Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinoza The king of the West Coast is undoubtedly CALIFORNIA CHROME on the heels of his powerful 7 ¼-length score in the Grade 2 San Felipe here last month. A veteran of 9 career starts, CHROME has a distinct edge in experience over his rivals today and based on the San Felipe, it s clear that he loves the Great Race Place and its dirt surface. He s one of the fastest horses in this crop, not just in California but in the United States, and if he runs as well as he did last time out there s a good chance all of the others are running for second place. The only cause for concern is that he earned his spot in the Kentucky Derby field with his win last month he doesn t need to win today, and trainer Art Sherman knows that. Some of the others may be more desperate, while this one is in the enviable position of saving his best race for a month from now. 6. Candy Boy (9/5) Owner: C R K Stable Trainer: John W. Sadler Jockey: Gary L. Stevens If you re looking for a horse that seems well suited to travel today s 1 1/8-mile distance, CANDY BOY may be the horse for you. Following a gutty victory in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis Stakes here in February, jockey Gary Stevens noted, the gallop-out was huge today, and I was thinking about the Santa Anita Derby as we were galloping out around the turn. That s high praise from a rider who has won this race a record 9 times. Plus, Bob Baffert s duo of Chitu and Midnight Hawk, the two horses that finished directly behind CANDY BOY in the Lewis, flattered him when they finished 1st and 2nd in last month s Sunland Derby. Trainer John Sadler has been drilling this horse 5 and 6 furlongs in the morning, and if he gets enough pace to run at, you should expect him to be charging down the lane. 7. Schoolofhardrocks (10/1) Owner: Amerman Racing, LLC Trainer: David E. Hofmans Jockey: Joe Talamo An impressive maiden winner last summer at Del Mar, the connections threw SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS into the deep end last month, running in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes off a 6-month layoff. He didn t disgrace himself that day he finished a respectable 4th and should be poised to improve from that start. Some horses simply need one or two races to tighten the screws. His breeding suggests that he ll run all day, which is a good sign in a race where some horses may be dropping out of it early. If you re in his corner, be sure to demand value, though. His 9/2 price last time out was far too low and the odds should be much better this time around. 8. Dublin Up (30/1) Owner: Donegal Racing Trainer: Peter Miller Jockey: Kent Desormeaux As far as pedigrees go, DUBLIN UP has the genes to excel at racing s highest level. With stalwarts like Unbridled and Storm Cat in his immediate family, the sky could be the limit for this Donegal Racing $410,000 yearling purchase. Donegal has an eye for talent, having previously campaigned Kentucky Derby third-place-finishers Dullahan and Paddy O Prado, but for DUBLIN UP to continue their success, he s going to need to run much better today than he ever has before. Winless in 4 career starts, DUBLIN UP has finished behind Big Tire and Rprettyboyfloyd twice now, but it merits mention that DUBLIN UP s most recent start was also his best start. There s little doubt that he s improving, but it appears highly unlikely he ll be around at the wire.

6 Wagering Strategies & Recommended Picks Analysis: This race could easily develop into a jockey s race as none of the runners need the lead, but not many want to find themselves too far out of it either. If nobody else goes to the front, CALIFORNIA CHROME may grab it, but don t be surprised if one of the longshots tries to steal this, namely RPRETTYBOYFLOYD, who adds blinkers and drew the rail. Gary Stevens won t let CALIFORNIA CHROME sneak away he ll always have CANDY BOY close to that rival but the real question mark could be HOPPERTUNITY, who has the talent to spoil the anticipated showdown between CALIFORNIA CHROME and CANDY BOY. w Top 4 Picks 1. California Chrome 2. Hoppertunity 3. Candy Boy 4. Rprettyboyfloyd Main Contenders: CANDY BOY and CALIFORNIA CHROME. They re close on the morning line and both make a lot of sense today. CHROME is the flashier of the two, but CANDY needs to run well to punch his Derby ticket. Never underestimate a desperate horse. You can trust that CANDY BOY s connections are all in for this one, while CALIFORNIA CHROME s connections are using this as a dress rehearsal for Louisville. Not that they don t want to win here they just might want the next one even more. Value Plays: It s difficult to endorse beyond those top 2, and it s also tough to call HOPPERTUNITY a value play, but 3/1 on him isn t bad value. He just beat a heap of top three-yearolds at Oaklawn and is right on par with the top 2 here he s just paying about twice the price. RPRETTYBOYFLOYD, at 20/1, may be the best of the rest. $100 Wagering Strategy: $25 Exacta #5 California Chrome / #3 Hoppertunity, #6 Candy Boy ($50) $13 Exacta # 3 Hoppertunity, #6 Candy Boy / #5 California Chrome ($26) $2 Trifecta #3 Hoppertunity, #5 California Chrome, #6 Candy Boy / #3 Hoppertunity, #5 California Chrome, #6 Candy Boy / #1 Rprettyboyfloyd, #3 Hoppertunity, #5 California Chrome, #6 Candy Boy ($24) Pick 4 Wagering Strategy (< $100 Ticket): Race 8 Highest preference remains with CALIFORNIA CHROME, but HOPPERTUNITY and CANDY BOY should ensure you get through. Race 9 Wide open turf field, but BRAVE ACT, ADVISORY, RED N BLACK ATTACK and DANCE HUMOR appear logical. Race 10 SEEKING THE SHERIF may be the speed of the speed, but EXPLAIN loves the track and distance and TOLEDO EDDIE is the right closer if they go too fast early. Race 11 In sprints down the hill, we love horses that have positive experience going the trip, so INDYGO F M A, CREDITCARDROULETTE and JOEANDBETTY SBABY make sense. Consider FLASHY DAME and DEITY, too. A Historic Run? Doug O Neill has won two straight renditions of the Santa Anita Derby, and this year will be looking to tie Jeff Mullins record of three straight, which he set in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

7 Santa Anita Derby Facts & Figures Gary Stevens leads all active riders with 9 Santa Anita Derby victories. The next closest active rider, Alex Solis, has won the race just twice. Stevens Santa Anita Derby victories came aboard: Buddy Gil (2003) Point Given (2001) General Challenge (1999) Indian Charlie (1998) Larry the Legend (1995) Brocco (1994) Personal Hope (1993) Mister Frisky (1990) Winning Colors (1988) Bob Baffert leads all active trainers with 6 Santa Anita Derby wins. 3 other trainers have won the Santa Anita Derby at least twice: Bob Baffert (2011, 2009, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1996) D. Wayne Lukas (1988, 1983, 1982, 1980) Jeff Mullins (2005, 2004, 2003) Doug O Neill (2013, 2012) 5 of the last 7 horses to start at less than even-money (1.00/1) in the Santa Anita Derby would go on to win. That list includes: Creative Cause (2nd; 2012) 0.90/1 Lookin At Lucky (3rd; 2010) 0.80/1 Pioneerof the Nile (1st; 2009) 0.80/1 Brother Derek (1st, 2006) 0.50/1 Point Given (1st; 2001) 0.70/1 Brocco (1st; 1994) 0.70/1 A.P. Indy (1st; 1992) 0.90/1 7 Santa Anita Derby winners went on to win the Eclipse Award for Champion Three-Year-old Male or Female Horse. 4 of those also won Horse of the Year that same year. They are: Point Given (2001) A.P. Indy (1992) Sunday Silence (1989) Affirmed (1978) Home Cookin Since 1990, only 2 Santa Anita Derby winners Buzzards Bay (2005) and General Challenge (1999) made their final prior start to the SA Derby somewhere other than Santa Anita. Finally! In 2012, I ll Have Another won both the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby, becoming the first horse since Sunday Silence in 1989 to complete that Double. Mark the San Felipe Since 1990, the winner of the San Felipe Stakes has gone on to win the Santa Anita Derby 5 times, and horses who prepped in the San Felipe have won this race 10 times. Bombs Away 2005 lit up the tote, as Buzzards Bay (30/1) combined with second-place finisher General John B (64/1) and thirdplace finisher Wilko (7/2) to trigger a $1,502 Exacta and a $6,635 Trifecta.

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