Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

Transcription

1 Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies A RESOURCE OF THE NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY NOVEMBER 2007

2 About This Document This Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies is provided to assist state officials, regulators, legislators, and others in the implementation of the recommendations of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (Action Plan) and the pursuit of its longer-term goals. This Guide identifies three main applications for energy efficiency potential studies and provides examples of each, along with a description of how key decisions regarding scope and methodology are made to best achieve the studies objectives. It also provides an overview of the main analytical steps in conducting a potential study and introduces several related concepts. The primary intended audience for this Guide is policy-makers, state officials, utility staff, and efficiency advocates looking for guidance on the process of conducting potential studies. These individuals can also use the Guide to review the results of alreadycompleted studies.

3 Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies A RESOURCE OF THE NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY NOVEMBER 2007

4 The Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies is a product of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Leadership Group and does not reflect the views, policies, or otherwise of the federal government. The role of the U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is limited to facilitation of the Action Plan. This document was final as of December 2007 and incorporates minor modifications to the original release. If this document is referenced, it should be cited as: National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (2007). Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies. Prepared by Philip Mosenthal and Jeffrey Loiter, Optimal Energy, Inc. < For More Information Regarding the Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, please contact: Niko Dietsch U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation Climate Protection Partnerships Division Tel: (202) dietsch.nikolaas@epa.gov Regarding the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency, please contact: Stacy Angel U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation Climate Protection Partnerships Division Tel: (202) angel.stacy@epa.gov Larry Mansueti U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Tel: (202) lawrence.mansueti@hq.doe.gov or visit

5 Table of Contents List of Figures... i List of Tables...ii List of Abbreviations and Acronyms...iii Acknowledgements...iv Executive Summary... ES-1 Importance of Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies... ES-1 Chapter 1: Introduction Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Notes Chatper 2: Energy Efficiency Potential Studies as a Policy Tool What Is a Potential Study? Definition of Key Terms Potential Studies as Policy Tool Types of Efficiency Potential Review of Results from Previous Potential Studies Notes Chapter 3: General Concepts and Steps to Completing a Potential Study Identify the Objective and the Audience Select Potential Type(s) to Analyze Determine Appropriate Level of Detail and Assess Data Requirements Select and Define the Methodology Present the Results Notes Chapter 4: Applying the Concepts: Building a Case for Energy Efficiency Key Questions Objective and Audience Example Applications: SWEEP Mother Lode and Texas Power to Save Potential Type Level of Detail and Data Requirements Methodology National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency

6 Table of Contents (continued) 4.7 Presentation of Results Conclusion Notes Chapter 5: Applying the Concepts: Identifying Alternatives to Supply-Side Investments Key Questions Objective and Audience Example Applications: VELCO Southern Loop and ACEEE Texas Potential Studies Potential Type Level of Detail and Data Requirements Methodology Presentation of Results Conclusion Notes Chapter 6: Applying the Concepts: Detailed Planning and Program Design Key Questions Objective and Audience Example Application: California Potential Study Potential Type Level of Detail and Data Requirements Methodology Presentation of Results Conclusion Notes Chapter 7: Conclusion Appendix A: National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Leadership Group... A-1 Appendix B: Glossary...B-1 Appendix C: Detailed Methodology Discussion...C-1 Appendix D: Data Sources... D-1 Appendix E: Example Potential Studies... E-1 Appendix F: References... F-1 Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

7 List of Figures Figure ES-1. Considerations for Conducting Potential Studies... ES-2 Figure 1-1. National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Recommendations and Options Figure 2-1. Considerations for Conducting Potential Studies Figure 4-1. Sample Penetration Curve for a Clothes Washer Program Figure 4-2. Total Electricity Consumption in the Base and High Efficiency Scenarios Figure 4-3. Energy Savings Potential in 2020 by Sector and State in the Southwest Figure 6-1. Savings Estimates for Select Measures Figure 7-1. Considerations for Conducting Potential Studies National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency i

8 List of Tables Table ES-1. Key Issues for Selecting a Potential Study Application... ES-3 Table 2-1. Sample of Gas Savings Potential Studies Table 2-2. Sample of Electricity Savings Potential Studies Table 4-1. Summary of Example Potential Studies: Building a Case for Energy Efficiency Table 5-1. Sample Table Comparing Transmission Alternatives in VELCO Territory Table 5-2. Summary of Example Potential Studies: Identifying Alternatives to Supply-Side Investment Table 6-1. Summary of Example Potential Study: Detailed Planning and Program Design ii Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

9 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms A K Action Plan National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency kw kilowatt AC air conditioning kwh kilowatt-hour ACEEE ARC American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy alternative resource configuration L LBL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ARI American Refrigeration Institute M C CBECS Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey MCES MCF MW Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey thousand cubic feet megawatt CEE Consortium for Energy Efficiency MWh megawatt-hour D DEER Database for Energy Efficiency Resources (California) N NEMA National Electrical Manufacturers Association DOE DSM E U.S. Department of Energy demand-side management R RECS RIM Residential Energy Consumption Survey ratepayer impact measure EIA EPA ERCOT G GWh H HVAC I Energy Information Administration U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Electric Reliability Council of Texas gigawatt-hour heating, ventilation, and air conditioning S SCT SWEEP T TRC V VELCO societal cost test Southwest Energy Efficiency Project total resource cost Vermont Electric Power Company, Inc. IOU investor-owned utility National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency iii

10 Acknowledgements The Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies is a key product of the Year Two Work Plan for the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency. This work plan was developed based on feedback from Action Plan Leadership Group members and observers during the fall of The work plan was further refined during the March 2007 Leadership Group meeting in Washington, D.C. A full list of Leadership Group members is provided in Appendix A. Philip Mosenthal of Optimal Energy, Inc., served as project manager and co-authored the Guide along with Jeffrey Loiter, under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In addition to direction and comment by the Action Plan Leadership Group, Rich Sedano of the Regulatory Assistance Project and Alison Silverstein of Alison Silverstein Consulting provided their expertise during review and editing of the Guide. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and EPA facilitate the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency, including this Guide. Key staff include Larry Mansueti (DOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability), Dan Beckley (DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy), and Kathleen Hogan, Niko Dietsch, Stacy Angel, and Katrina Pielli (EPA Climate Protection Partnership Division). Eastern Research Group, Inc., provided technical review, copyediting, graphics, and production services. iv Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

11 Executive Summary This Guide provides information on standard approaches for parties looking to build the policy case for energy efficiency, evaluate efficiency as an alternative to supply-side resources, and formulate detailed program design plans by understanding the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency. Policy-makers, state officials, utility staff, efficiency advocates, and others can use this information to quantify the magnitude of the energy efficiency resource. The Guide is provided to assist in the implementation of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency s five key policy recommendations for creating a sustainable, aggressive national commitment to energy efficiency. Importance of Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies Improving energy efficiency in our homes, businesses, schools, governments, and industries which consume more than 70 percent of the natural gas and electricity used in the country is one of the most constructive, cost-effective ways to address the challenges of high energy prices, energy security and independence, air pollution, and global climate change. Despite these benefits and the success of energy efficiency programs in some regions of the country, energy efficiency remains critically underutilized in the nation s energy portfolio. It is time to take advantage of more than two decades of experience with successful energy efficiency programs, broaden and expand these efforts, and capture the savings that energy efficiency offers. Conducting a potential study provides key information to inform policies and approaches to advance energy efficiency. The National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency was released in July 2006 as a call to action to bring diverse stakeholders together at the national, regional, state, or utility level, as appropriate, and foster the discussions, decision-making, and commitments necessary to take investment in energy efficiency to a new level. This Guide directly supports the Action Plan recommendation to make a strong, long-term commitment to implement cost-effective energy efficiency as a resource. A key option to consider under this recommendation is establishing the potential for long-term, cost-effective energy efficiency savings (see page 1-2 for a full listing National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency of options to consider under each Action Plan recommendation). Conducting a potential study supports this option and provides critical data for the design of policies and programs aimed at increasing investment in energy efficiency, including: Setting attainable energy savings targets. Quantifying the energy efficiency resource for system planning. Determining funding levels for delivering energy efficiency programs. Designing programs to achieve the long-term potential. Reassessing energy efficiency opportunities as conditions change. Energy efficiency potential studies are an effective tool for building the policy case for energy efficiency, evaluating efficiency as an alternative to supply side resources, and formulating detailed program design plans. They are typically the first step taken by entities interested in initiating or expanding a portfolio of efficiency programs, and serve as the analytic basis for efforts to treat energy efficiency as a high-priority resource equivalent with supply-side options. Potential studies conducted by utilities, state agencies, advocacy groups, and other entities consistently find that significant gains in cost-effective energy savings (e.g., MWh of electricity, MCF of natural gas) and capacity (e.g., MW, MCF/day) are currently possible in all sectors and regions of the country, and are likely to ES-1

12 continue to be available at low cost in the future. These studies show that energy efficiency can yield more than 20 percent savings in total electricity demand nationwide by This is equivalent to reducing the forecast growth in electric demand by 50 percent under some forecasts (Nadel et al., 2004; NEEP, 2005; SWEEP, 2002). Energy efficiency potential studies can be broadly characterized by how the results are applied in a policy and program development context. In each case, the cost and time needed to complete a study is directly correlated with the level of detail and accuracy of results. This Guide identifies three main applications for energy efficiency potential studies: 1. Potential studies that are written with the aim of building policy support and making the case for energy efficiency programs and funding. Usually these types of studies are done at a high level of aggregation, and focus on the macro-level societal benefits of doing efficiency. 2. Potential studies that are written with the aim of evaluating efficiency as an alternative to a specific supply-side project. These types of studies present highly accurate estimates of the energy efficiency potential, as they need to provide certainty and foster confidence in energy resource planners to invest in energy efficiency instead of traditional steel in the ground resources. 3. Potential studies that are written with the aim of determining how much to spend on efficiency, and how that money can best be spent. These potential studies are conducted in situations where the policy decision to invest in efficiency has already been made and there is no need to make a case for supporting efficiency. These studies focus more on the disaggregated results (e.g., is there more opportunity in lighting or HVAC?) than other types of potential studies. Each of these potential study applications incorporates general concepts and steps (discussed in Chapter 3), which include potential-type analyzed (technical, economic, or achievable), data collection approaches, level of aggregation, expected accuracy of results, and the type of output produced. Chapters 4 through 6 describe these concepts and steps, briefly address their implications for study cost and completion time, and provide recommendations for how each should be handled in the context of the three potential study applications (given a state or utility s overall policy goals). After reading this Guide, parties seeking to undertake a potential study will better understand: (a) the questions to ask to ensure that the appropriate potential study Figure ES-1. Considerations for Conducting Potential Studies High (Single Program) Detailed Planning and Program Design (Program Portfolio) Level of Detail Medium Identifying Alternatives to Supply-Side Investment Low Building the Case for Energy Efficiency Low Medium High Cost and Length of Time to Complete ES-2 Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

13 application is selected, (b) the basic approach and steps for conducting the study, including the key questions and issues to raise with the analyst doing the work, and (c) the types of results and insights that can (and can- not) be expected, including how potential studies can be used to advance the Action Plan recommendations. Table ES-1. Key Issues for Selecting a Potential Study Application Building a Case for Energy Efficiency Identifying Alternatives to Supply-Side Investments Detailed Planning and Program Design Typical Cost* $20,000 $75,000 $75,000 $300,000 $75,000 $500,000 Estimated Time* 1 to 4 months 4 and 12 months 4 and 12 months Key Questions Are we in the process of deciding whether Will this study determine whether energy Has the decision to invest in efficiency already been made? to invest in efficiency efficiency can be used and if so, are we to defer or eliminate Are data needed primarily to deciding how much to invest? plans to build new capacity or upgrade transmission lines? Is the primary motivation of this study to demonstrate the benefits of efficiency and build policy support? Can we accept a fairly high level of aggregation and thus uncertainty in our results? Are the desired outputs primarily macro-level energy and capacity savings, and is there a role for related economic and environmental data? Are energy efficiency objectives best supported by investmentgrade analysis with the aim of ensuring the future reliability of the power system? Are energy efficiency objectives best supported by detailed measure-level data? Should certain measures (i.e., those that provide summer peak reductions) be given priority? aid in decisions about which market sectors, targeted geographic areas, end uses, measures, and programs should be tapped to realize efficiency potential? Are study findings intended primarily for energy efficiency planners who will incorporate the results into portfolio decisions? What is the history of efficiency programming in this area? What effect does this history have on the assumptions we make about program potential? Should the study focus on one particular end use, customer segment, or set of measures? Are data available that can give reasonable disaggregated results? * These ranges should be viewed as approximate. They are based on a sample of studies and are not intended to define the absolute limit of these parameters. National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency ES-3

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15 1: Introduction Improving the energy efficiency of homes, businesses, schools, governments, and industries which consume more than 70 percent of the natural gas and electricity used in the United States is one of the most constructive, cost-effective ways to address the challenges of high energy prices, energy security and independence, air pollution, and global climate change. Mining this efficiency could help us meet on the order of 50 percent or more of the expected growth in U.S. consumption of electricity and natural gas in the coming decades, yielding many billions of dollars in saved energy bills and avoiding significant emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants. 1 Recognizing this large opportunity, more than 60 leading organizations representing diverse stakeholders from across the country joined together to develop the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency. The Action Plan identifies many of the key barriers contributing to underinvestment in energy efficiency; outlines five key policy recommendations for achieving all cost-effective energy efficiency, focusing largely on state-level energy efficiency policies and programs; and provides a number of options to consider in pursing these recommendations (Figure 1-1). As of November 2007, nearly 120 organizations have endorsed the Action Plan recommendations and made public commitments to implement them in their areas. Understanding the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency is key to making the Action Plan a reality. 1.1 Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies The Leadership Group of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (see Appendix A for a list of group members) identified the area of energy efficiency potential studies as one where additional guidance is needed to help parties pursue the recommendations and meet their commitments to energy efficiency. Specifically, this Guide directly supports the Action Plan recommendation to make a strong, long-term commitment to implement cost-effective energy efficiency as a resource. A key option to consider under this recommendation is establishing the potential for long-term, cost-effective energy efficiency savings. Further, this Guide was developed in conjunction with and complements other documents prepared as part of the Action Plan. Potential studies of a state or region inform the comparison of energy efficiency with supply-side options, and therefore serve as the analytic basis for implementing four key options to consider under the Action Plan: Integrate energy efficiency into utility, state, and regional resource planning activities. Establish funding requirements for delivering longterm, cost-effective energy efficiency. Develop long-term energy saving goals as part of energy planning processes. Establish and educate stakeholders on the business case for energy efficiency How to Use This Guide This Guide is provided as a resource for implementing the recommendations of the Action Plan. It was developed in conjunction with and complements other documents prepared as part of the Action Plan. One such document is the Guide to Resource Planning with Energy Efficiency (National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency, 2007), which details how potential studies play a critical role in the utility resource planning process. The audience for the Guide includes policy-makers, state officials, utility staff, efficiency advocates, and other entities interested in conducting an energy National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency 1-1

16 Figure 1-1. National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Recommendations and Options Recognize energy efficiency as a high-priority energy resource. Options to consider: Establishing policies to establish energy efficiency as a priority resource. Integrating energy efficiency into utility, state, and regional resource planning activities. Quantifying and establishing the value of energy efficiency, considering energy savings, capacity savings, and environmental benefits, as appropriate. Make a strong, long-term commitment to implement cost-effective energy efficiency as a resource. Options to consider: Establishing appropriate cost-effectiveness tests for a portfolio of programs to reflect the long-term benefits of energy efficiency. Establishing the potential for long-term, cost-effective energy efficiency savings by customer class through proven programs, innovative initiatives, and cutting-edge technologies. Establishing funding requirements for delivering long-term, cost-effective energy efficiency. Developing long-term energy saving goals as part of energy planning processes. Developing robust measurement and verification procedures. Designating which organization(s) is responsible for administering the energy efficiency programs. Providing for frequent updates to energy resource plans to accommodate new information and technology. Broadly communicate the benefits of and opportunities for energy efficiency. Options to consider: Establishing and educating stakeholders on the business case for energy efficiency at the state, utility, and other appropriate level, addressing relevant customer, utility, and societal perspectives. Communicating the role of energy efficiency in lowering customer energy bills and system costs and risks over time. Communicating the role of building codes, appliance standards, and tax and other incentives. Provide sufficient, timely, and stable program funding to deliver energy efficiency where cost-effective. Options to consider: Deciding on and committing to a consistent way for program administrators to recover energy efficiency costs in a timely manner. Establishing funding mechanisms for energy efficiency from among the available options, such as revenue requirement or resource procurement funding, system benefits charges, rate-basing, shared-savings, and incentive mechanisms. Establishing funding for multi-year period. Modify policies to align utility incentives with the delivery of cost-effective energy efficiency and modify ratemaking practices to promote energy efficiency investments. Options to consider: Addressing the typical utility throughput incentive and removing other regulatory and management disincentives to energy efficiency. Providing utility incentives for the successful management of energy efficiency programs. Including the impact on adoption of energy efficiency as one of the goals of retail rate design, recognizing that it must be balanced with other objectives. Eliminating rate designs that discourage energy efficiency by not increasing costs as customers consume more electricity or natural gas. Adopting rate designs that encourage energy efficiency by considering the unique characteristics of each customer class and including partnering tariffs with other mechanisms that encourage energy efficiency, such as benefit-sharing programs and on-bill financing. Source: National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency, Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

17 efficiency potential study for the purpose of initiating or expanding a portfolio of efficiency programs. It will also be useful for regulators, legislators, and other decisionmakers tasked with overseeing utilities and assessing the merits of a particular energy efficiency approach or outcome. The Guide provides answers to or the information needed to develop answers to the following questions: What is a potential study? What objectives are met by a potential study? Do I need to conduct or commission a potential study for my jurisdiction? What are the key steps in conducting a potential study? What are the likely costs of different types of potential studies, and what are the pros and cons of each? Based on stated objectives, what type of potential study should I conduct or commission? What should its boundaries and analytical parameters be? The Guide is policy-neutral such that it can be applied to energy efficiency programs irrespective of their policy objectives and constraints. The Guide lays out a basic potential study structure and methodology while flagging issues that need to be addressed in specific circumstances. Chapters 2 and 3 present key topics and approaches applicable to all potential studies. They define the types of potential that are typically analyzed and the expected range of results from each. They also summarize the most important steps in performing a potential study. The Guide also identifies three contexts for application of potential studies. Chapters 4 through 6 identify specific approaches and provide guidance for each step in relation to these three study applications. Case studies are used to illustrate best practices, with pros and cons of different methods presented so that users can make the best decision for their circumstances. Chapter 7 summarizes the discussion and identifies important considerations in conducting a potential study. Appendix C provides a detailed discussion on potential study methodology. Note that this guide is not intended to give the general reader enough information to conduct a potential study on their own. Rather, we hope that after reviewing this document, the reader will be able to participate in efforts to plan for, contract for, contribute to, and review the results of potential studies. Where potential studies are conducted, the reader should be able to effectively collaborate with the entity doing the work. To this end, specific questions for the analyst are provided at the beginning of Chapters 4 through Structure of the Guide This document presents much of its information in the context of several example studies. To avoid repetition, different aspects of conducting a potential study are emphasized in Chapters 4 through 6. Appendix C repeats much of this information in a more linear fashion that does not rely on the examples in the main text, while Appendix D contains a list of common data sources used for potential studies and a short description of each. Appendix E provides short descriptions of 17 recent potential studies, with Web links where available Development of the Guide The Guide is a key product of the Year Two Work Plan for the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency. This work plan was developed based on feedback from Action Plan Leadership Group members and observers during the fall of The work plan was further refined during the March 2007 Leadership Group meeting in Washington, D.C. A full list of Leadership Group members is provided in Appendix A. Philip Mosenthal of Optimal Energy, Inc., served as project manager and co-authored the Guide along with Jeffrey Loiter, under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1.2 Notes 1. See the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (2006), available at < National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency 1-3

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19 Energy Efficiency Potential 2: Studies as a Policy Tool This chapter of the Guide explains why conducting potential studies is a critical best practice for establishing energy efficiency as a first-priority resource, and describes how such studies can serve as the quantitative basis for actions aimed at achieving the Action Plan s recommendations. 2.1 What Is a Potential Study? Simply put, a potential study is a quantitative analysis of the amount of energy savings that either exists, is cost-effective, or could be realized through the implementation of energy efficiency programs and policies. The Action Plan notes that potential studies illuminate the nature of the energy efficiency resource, and can be used by legislators and regulators to inform efficiency policy and programs. 1 The boundaries of a potential study can be as small as a neighborhood experiencing transmission or distribution constraints, or as large as an entire region of the country. The study may consider all sectors of the economy or focus on a particular industry or type of energy-user. It may focus solely on electricity, natural gas, or another fuel or provide a comprehensive look at all energy consumption. As with any analysis used to support public policy, the scope of the study depends on the question being answered. 2.2 Definition of Key Terms As in any field of study, energy efficiency practitioners use a vocabulary of terms with generally accepted meanings to convey their ideas, methods, and results. The following list defines some of the key terms used in this guide. Energy efficiency: using less energy to provide the same or an improved level of service to the energy consumer in an economically efficient way. Sometimes conservation is used as a synonym, but that term is usually taken to mean using less of a resource even if this results in a lower service level (e.g., setting a thermostat lower or reducing lighting levels). The Action Plan recognizes that energy efficiency includes using less energy at any time, including at times of peak demand through demand response and peak shaving efforts. Measure: any action taken to increase efficiency, whether through changes in equipment, control strategies, or behavior. Examples are higher-efficiency central air conditioners, occupancy sensor control of lighting, and retro-commissioning. In some cases, bundles of technologies or practices may be modeled as single measures. For example, an ENERGY STAR home package may be treated as a single measure. Program: a mechanism for encouraging energy efficiency. May be funded by a variety of sources and pursued by a wide range of approaches. Typically includes multiple measures. 2 End-use: a category of equipment or service that consumes energy (e.g., lighting, refrigeration, heating, process heat). Cost-effectiveness: a measure of the relevant economic effects resulting from the implementation of an energy efficiency measure. If the benefits outweigh the cost, the measure is said to be cost-effective. Lost-opportunity: refers to an efficiency measure or efficiency program that seeks to encourage the selection of higher-efficiency equipment or building practices than would typically be chosen at the time of a purchase or design decision. Retrofit: refers to an efficiency measure or efficiency program that seeks to encourage the replacement of functional equipment before the end of its operating life with higher-efficiency units (also called early retirement ) or the installation of additional National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency 2-1

20 controls, equipment, or materials in existing facilities for purposes of reducing energy consumption (e.g., increased insulation, lighting occupancy controls, economizer ventilation systems). 2.3 Potential Studies as Policy Tool Potential studies can serve multiple objectives in support of efforts to advance a long-term commitment to costeffective energy efficiency. Their results provide critical input for the design of policies and programs aimed at increasing the penetration of efficiency, including: Setting attainable energy savings targets. Quantifying the energy efficiency resource for system planning. Determining a funding level for delivering energy efficiency programs. Designing programs to achieve the long-term potential. Reassessing energy efficiency opportunities as conditions change. The type of report and analysis methodology will vary depending on the ultimate goal or objective, so it is important to have a clear idea of the objectives of the study and type of information needed before beginning the analysis. This section describes three applications for which a potential study can inform policy decisions: Building a case for investment in energy efficiency. Identifying alternatives for supply-side investments. Detailed efficiency program design and planning. These were chosen because the studies that result from these objectives cover a range of approaches, levels of detail, and costs. They also represent the majority of studies conducted. For each, we touch on some of the concepts discussed in greater detail later on, such as the level of detail of the potential study and whether sitespecific data are gathered to support the potential analysis. In general, the greater the detail and data needs for a study, the greater the specificity of the results and the greater the cost and time to complete a study. The figure below depicts this relationship graphically, placing the three potential study scenarios in context with one another Building a Case for Efficiency Investment Potential studies are most frequently used either to make the initial case for energy efficiency programs and efficiency portfolio investments or to support continued (and possibly increased) funding of existing programs. In this situation, a study seeks to answer the two-part question of whether to invest in efficiency and if so, Figure 2-1. Considerations for Conducting Potential Studies High (Single Program) Detailed Planning and Program Design (Program Portfolio) Level of Detail Medium Identifying Alternatives to Supply-Side Investment Low Building the Case for Energy Efficiency Low Medium Cost and Length of Time to Complete High 2-2 Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies