State of the STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

Transcription

1 This inaugural State of the River Nile Basin report presents information on the general health of the Nile Basin, and is intended to raise awareness and improve understanding of biophysical, sociocultural, and economic conditions within the basin. It highlights water hotspots and hopespots, and observes that cooperation amongst the riparian states is crucial for solving the basin s multiple environmental and socio-economic problems. The report targets policy makers and the general population, and seeks to catalyze and facilitate discussion, information sharing, knowledge-based decision-making, and collective action at basinwide level. The State of Basin reports provide a framework for pressure state response analysis, and will be published every three years as a flagship knowledge product of the Nile Basin Initiative. Front cover photographs Main image: Murchison Falls, Uganda by Liz Leyden Smaller images from top: FIsherman on the White Nile, The Sudan by Arne Hoel/The World Bank Agricultural land at Giza, Egypt by Damir Cudic/Panos Pictures Nalubaale Power Station, Uganda by Klaas Lingbeek van Kranen/ istockphoto STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 State of the River Nile Basin 2012 For more information, please contact: Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat P.O. Box 192, Entebbe, Uganda Tel Fax [email protected] Website Member states Burundi DR Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan The Sudan Tanzania Uganda

2 State of the River Nile Basin 2012

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4 State of the River Nile Basin 2012 Nile Basin Initiative Initiative du Basin du Nil Entebbe, Uganda

5 Copyright Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) October 2012 ISBN: The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is an intergovernmental partnership of ten Nile riparian countries that is seeking to manage and develop the common Nile water resources in a cooperative manner and promote regional peace and security. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed, in any form, for sale or other commercial purposes without prior permission from the NBI. However, the publication may be reproduced in whole or part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The NBI would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this report as a source. Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat (NBI), P.O. Box 192, Entebbe, Uganda Tel: / Fax: [email protected]; Website: Produced by Myriad Editions, Brighton, UK ( Printed by: Graphic Systems (U) Ltd., Kampala, Uganda Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Nile riparian countries, BMZ, or GIZ. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention of infringement on trademark or copyright laws. The Nile Basin Initiative regrets any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made in the report. The designations and presentations in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of NBI, BMZ, or GIZ concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city, or the delineation of its frontiers or boundaries. Statistics for South Sudan is included under Sudan except where separate statistics for South Sudan is provided. Supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). In several places the report has used information compiled by studies funded by the partners to the Nile Basin Trust Fund (Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom, European Union, World Bank). 4 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

6 FOREWORD Dear Esteemed Reader, I welcome you to the first State of the River Nile Basin Report. This report is intended to be the flagship knowledge product of the Nile Basin Initiative and will be published every three years. The Nile is commonly regarded as the most important river in the world, and occupies an important place in the tradition of many of the world s religions, including Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. For thousands of years, the source of this river was a myth to the western world and inspired many expeditions into the interior of Africa. Today, the Nile is home to several hundred million people, who are dependent on its waters for their wellbeing. Success or failure in managing the waters of the Nile therefore spells success or disaster for regional peace and stability in a large part of Africa. The Nile system links and creates interdependencies amongst Nile riparian states, yet communities in the Nile states are often unaware of how their actions could impact upon, or be impacted by, the actions of communities in other parts of the basin. It is a common practice in the basin to consider environmental issues in isolation from other national development issues whilst, in reality, environmental issues are intricately linked to social, cultural, technological, political, and economic issues. This state of basin report addresses the above challenges, and aims to avail credible and timely information to aid strategic planning and decision making on the Nile. The report puts together wide-ranging data, and offers analyses of the condition of the water and environmental resources of the basin, and of socioeconomic activities. It takes stock of past actions, present challenges, and future opportunities for improving the stewardship of the Nile, and defines a list of indicators for monitoring the health of the basin. It lays emphasis on cooperation amongst Nile riparian states as a requisite for successful management of the basin. It is my hope that you will find this report an enlightening and invaluable source of information, be you a politician, government official, development worker, media expert, academician, researcher, or simply an ordinary citizen of the Nile. It is my wish, furthermore, that the report galvanizes the basin community into coordinated action at national and regional levels to protect and preserve the common Nile water and environmental resources for the good of present and future generations. I thank the Nile Secretariat for preparing the Report and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) for supporting its preparation. Wishing you pleasant reading, Sincerely, Ambassador Stanislas Kamanzi Minister of Natural Resources, Republic of Rwanda Chairperson, Nile Council Of Water Ministers (Nile-COM) 5

7 ACKNOWlEDgEMENts The following persons contributed to the preparation of the State of the River Nile Basin 2012 report. EditORial group Dr Nicholas Azza, Nile-SEC, Entebbe, Uganda Ms Milly Mbuliro Mr Bart Hilhorst, Consultant, Doha, Qatar Ms Jannet King, Myriad Editions, UK CONtributORS Dr Abdulkarim Seid, WRPM Project, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Dr Yosif Ibrahim, ENTRO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Mr Solomon Tassew Erkyihun, WRPM Project, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Mr Vincent Ssebuggwawo, NELSAP-CU, Kigali, Rwanda Mr Arsene Mukubwa, NELSAP-CU, Kigali, Rwanda Dr Hellen Omeh Natu, RATP Project, Bujumbura, Burundi Mr Tom Waako, Nile-SEC, Entebbe, Uganda Dr Wubalem Fekade, ENTRO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Ms Mwikali Wambua, NELSAP-CU, Kigali, Rwanda Ms Jane Baitwa, Nile-SEC, Entebbe, Uganda Mr Million Gebreyes, ENTRO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Mr Joshua Wanyama, Consultant, Kampala, Uganda Ms Francoise Kayigamba, NELSAP-CU, Kigali, Rwanda Dr Mohammed El Muntasir, ENTRO, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Engineer David Mwangi, Consultant, Nairobi, Kenya Dr Humphrey R. Ndwiga, Power and Electricity Consultant, Nairobi, Kenya Mr Joseph K Nduru, Consultant in Transport Economics, Kampala, Uganda Mr Kennedy Oyugi, Consultant, Population Science, Nairobi, Kenya GIS/Map WORK Ms Milly Mbuliro, Nile-SEC, Entebbe, Uganda Ms Isabelle Lewis, Myriad Editions, UK ReviEWERS Dr Yilma Seleshi, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia Ms Gerson van Luijk, Huisman Traject BV, The Netherlands Dr Mark Svendsen, Philomath, USA Prof Henry Mahoo, Sokoine University, Morogoro, Tanzania Dr Girma Medhin, Shawel Consultant International, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Dr Peter Sharpe, US National Park Service, USA Professor Martin Williams, University of Adelaide, Australia Professor Declan Conway, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Dr Paul Venton Boston, Massachusetts, USA Mr Thomas Dworak, Fresh-Thoughts Consulting GmbH, Vienna, Austria Mr Tobias Muehler, GIZ, Eschborn, Germany Dr Anne Goujon, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria Mr Khalid Elnoor Ali, Hydraulic Research Station, Wad Medani, Sudan Mr Loic P. Dutrieux, Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University, The Netherlands. Mr Maarten van der Ploeg, GIZ, Kampala, Uganda Mr Koen Mathot, GIZ, Kampala, Uganda Mr Steffen Schwörer, GIZ, Kampala, Uganda Ms Diana Nenz, GIZ, Kampala, Uganda ACKNOWlEDgEMENts The NBI would like to give special thanks to the following organizations and persons who provided information for the report: the Transit Transport Coordination Authority of the Northern Corridor, Otto Simonett, and the National DSS specialists of the Nile Basin Countries. 6 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

8 contents Table OF CONtENts Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 6 Maps and figures 10 Quick facts on the Nile 12 Political map of the Nile Basin 13 Acronyms, abbreviations, and symbols 14 Photo credits 16 1 INTRODUCtiON 17 The State of the River Nile Basin reports 18 The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) 18 Purpose of the report 19 How the report was prepared 20 Analytical framework 21 Report structure 21 Knowledge products 23 2 THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE NilE BASIN 25 Key messages 26 The Nile Basin 27 The course of the Nile 28 Rainfall 30 Annual rainfall distribution 30 Weather patterns in the Nile Basin 31 Seasonal rainfall distribution 32 Evapotranspiration 34 Water loss from the Earth s surface 34 Spatial and temporal evapotranspiration trends 34 A diverse and highly variable climate 35 Sub-systems and sub-basins 36 The Nile sub-systems 36 The Sudd and its influence on Nile Hydrology 36 The Nile sub-basins 38 Recording river flow 40 Groundwater 41 Where groundwater occurs 41 Main aquifers 41 Main hydrogeological environments in the Nile region 41 Groundwater recharge 42 Groundwater use 44 Water quality 45 Surface water 45 Upstream downstream trends 46 Erosion, sediment transport, and reservoir sedimentation 48 Groundwater quality 50 Towards increasing water stress 51 Water-related natural disasters and conflicts in South Sudan 52 Towards improved water-use efficiency 53 Challenges related to surface water management 53 Challenges related to groundwater management 53 What NBI is doing 53 What broader cooperation could achieve 54 Summary and conclusions 55 3 THE ENviRONMENTAL RESOURCES OF THE NilE BASIN 57 Key messages 58 The Nile A basin richly endowed 58 Key environmental resources 60 Rivers 60 Lakes 61 Wetlands 62 The Fayoum Lakes: A biodiversity hotspot in the Sahara 63 Soils 63 The Sudd: The world s largest tropical wetland 64 Ecoregions in the Nile Basin 66 Fauna 71 The Albertine Rift region 71 Use of the basin s resources 74 Human pressures 74 South Sudan: Environmental challenges of the petroleum sector 79 Natural pressures 82 Impact of pressures 84 Environmental degradation: Underlying factors and potential remedies 86 National environmental governance frameworks 88 Common strengths and weaknesses 88 Country-specific weaknesses 88 Regional environmental governance frameworks 90 Nile Basin Initiative 90 East African Community 90 Lake Victoria Commission 91 Intergovernmental Authority on Development 91 Response under national frameworks 92 Response under regional frameworks 94 Watershed management under ENSAP 95 Conclusions and recommendations 96 Watershed management under NELSAP 97 7

9 4 OppORtunitiES AND CHAllENgES OF the growing Nile population 99 Key messages 100 Population: A two-sided development issue 101 A large but unevenly distributed population 102 Spatial population distribution 102 Population size 104 Rural urban population distribution 105 Population distribution by age group 106 Socio-economic profile 108 An underdeveloped region 108 Employment by sector 109 An optimistic economic outlook 112 The basin population is set to rise rapidly 113 Projections of population growth 113 Underlying causes of high population growth 114 More challenges than opportunities 114 Factors responsible for high population growth 115 Emerging megacities 116 Feeding the urban population 117 Rising to the challenge 118 Tackling population growth 118 Eradicating poverty 119 Conclusions and recommendations 120 Regional integration AGRICultuRE, FOOD SECURitY, AND livelihoods IN THE NilE BASIN 121 Key messages 122 Agriculture: Mainstay of the region s economy 123 Agriculture is important 123 Agricultural systems in the Nile Basin 125 Rainfed farming systems 125 Irrigated farming systems 126 Agricultural potential in South Sudan 127 Kenana Sugar Estate 129 Livestock production systems 129 Fisheries and aquaculture production systems 131 The opportunities of aquaculture 132 Production 133 Food and cash crops 133 Livestock, poultry, and fisheries 136 Organic farming 138 Food deficits and the challenge of feeding the region s poor 139 Constraints to agricultural production 140 A wide range of obstacles 140 Soil as a factor of agricultural production 140 Main bio-physical constraining factors 140 Main institutional and economic constraining factors 141 Agro-processing in the region 144 Adding value to agricultural products 144 The agro-industrial sector in the Nile Basin countries 145 Agricultural trade 146 The promise of regional agricultural trade 146 Gender and youth dimensions in crossborder trade 146 Regional trade organizations 146 Regional trade corridors 147 Water footprint of agricultural production 150 Characteristics of water footprint for production of selected crops 151 Constraints to agricultural trade 152 Unlocking the potential of agriculture 153 Increasing allocations to agriculture 153 Agricultural land expansion 155 Irrigation development 155 Rainwater harvesting 155 Increasing production through a multidimensional approach 156 Getting more from the soil 157 Enhancing adaptation of rainfed agriculture to climate change 158 Impacts of agriculture on the environment 158 Kenya Increasing resilience to climate change 159 NBI s support to the agricultural sector 159 Conclusions and recommendations HYDROPOWER POTENtiAL AND THE REgiON S RISING ENERGY DEMAND 163 Key messages 164 Hydropower: A vital water-use sector 165 Turning the spotlight on power 166 Importance of power/electricity 166 Importance of hydropower in the energy sector 167 Why hydropower is the most attractive option 167 Power supply and consumption 168 Power generation 168 Power consumption 170 Future power demand situation 171 Power demand projections 171 Investments needed to satisfy future power demands 171 Main ongoing hydropower developments 172 Developing the region s hydropower potential 173 Constraints to development of the basin s hydropower potential STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

10 Rusumo hydropower plant 174 Overcoming the constraints to hydropower development 175 Diversifying the region s energy sources 178 Hydropower has limited ability to meet region s energy needs 178 Complementing hydropower with other renewable energy sources 178 Proposed and ongoing power generation projects 178 Grand Inga project 179 Cooperating to enhance regional energy security 182 Optimizing the use of shared water resources 182 Regional power interconnection and power pooling 182 Regional power pool 182 Regional interconnection projects 183 Conclusions and recommendations THE ROLE OF INLAND WATER TRANSPORT IN SuppORT OF FURTHER REgiONAL INTEGRAtiON 187 Key messages 188 Transportation: A key to regional integration 189 Overview of the transport sector 190 Road system 190 Railway system 192 Air transport system 193 Maritime transport 194 Inland water transport 194 Improving transportation 196 Inland water transport in Egypt 196 Enhancing regional integration 197 The Nile Equatorial Lakes region 197 LAPSSET The Lamu transport corridor 198 The downstream countries 199 North South transport interconnections 200 Improving inland water transport 202 Potential of inland water transport to complement road and rail transport 202 Improving inland water transport in South Sudan 202 Improving inland water transport on Lake Victoria 203 Conclusions and recommendations CliMATE CHANGE AND its IMpliCAtiONS FOR the Nile RegiON 205 Key messages 206 Climate change: An emerging threat 207 Climate change is real 208 Evidence for climate change 208 Human activities spur climate change 209 Possible impacts of a warming trend in climate 209 Nile Delta: Possible impacts of sea-level rise 209 Vulnerability and sensitivity to climate change 210 The region s climate is naturally variable 210 Factors increasing the region s vulnerability to climate change 210 Dry regions are among the most vulnerable 211 Rural women are at greater risk 211 Different sub-basins are affected differently 212 Lake Victoria: Climate sensitivity 213 Combating climate change 214 Response of the international community 214 Response of the Nile countries 214 Fostering climate-resilient growth 216 The future climate of the basin 216 The uncertainties of climate prediction 216 Acting in the face of uncertainty 218 Hydro-meteorological monitoring 218 Implementing practical no-regret measures 219 Soil restoration and drought mitigation 219 Increasing water-storage infrastructure 220 NBI: Contributing to climate-resilient growth 222 Transboundary-level adaptation measures 223 Conclusions and recommendations SUMMARY: THE STATE OF THE RivER NilE BASIN A major transboundary river basin with little water 226 Environmental resources under increasing pressure 227 A large and rising human population 228 The struggle to meet rising domestic nutritional demand 229 The Nile s potential for meeting energy needs 231 A waterway of growing significance 231 Climate change impact: now and in the future 232 Responding to challenges 234 Enhancing the response 235 Water hotspots and hopespots 236 ANNEXES: INDICATORS AND SOURCES 239 Annex 1: River Nile State of Basin Indicators Annex 2: Proposed additional State of Basin Indicators for future reporting 244 Annex 3: Sources 245 Index 251 9

11 Maps AND FiguRES MapS The Nile Basin 27 Total rainfall 30 Monthly rainfall 31 Potential evapotranspiration 35 The main sub-basins and their contribution to the Nile 39 Regional groundwater aquifers 43 Electrical conductivity 47 Slopes in the Nile Basin 48 Land cover in the Nile Basin 60 Flyways 65 Ecoregions in the Nile Basin 68 The Albertine Rift region 71 Major protected areas in the Nile Basin 72 Wetlands and Ramsar Sites in the Nile Basin 73 Vulnerability to erosion 95 NELSAP project areas 97 Population distribution 103 Human Development Index 108 Intergovernmental organizations 120 Main agricultural systems 124 Farming with irrigation 128 Global Hunger Index 139 Potential soil productivity 142 Clustered soil units in the Nile Basin 143 Agricultural trade 147 South-to-central grains and pulses corridor 148 Northern livestock corridor 149 Power plants 181 Transmission lines 184 Historic inland water transport system 195 Key elements of bulk cargo transport system 201 Lake Victoria within the transport system 203 Changing glacier extents in the Rwenzori mountains 208 Nile Delta: possible impacts of sea-level rise 209 Flood risk 215 Projected changes in precipitation STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

12 figures Process for preparation of State of the River Nile Basin Monitoring rainfall 37 Total flows of the Nile 37 Nile flows 30 Characteristics of the Nile sub-basins 38 Measuring river flow 40 Groundwater potential of the Nile Basin countries 44 Agricultural water withdrawals 50 Water withdrawals and resources 51 Endemic species 59 Solid waste generation and collection in Addis Ababa 77 Wildlife decline 84 Land-use changes 84 Threatened species 85 Change in forest area 92 Population 104 Rural population 105 Population growth 105 Population pyramids 106 Child mortality 107 Income and poverty 108 Economic profile 109 Labour force participation 109 Drinking water 110 Adult illiteracy 111 Sanitation 111 Human Development Index trends 112 Projected population growth 113 Growth rates 113 Gender Inequality Index 115 The 10 largest cities in the Nile region 116 Fertility rates 118 Land under irrigation 126 Irrigated crops 128 Smallholder irrigation 128 Cattle 130 Production of major cash crops 133 Production of major food crops 133 Comparative yields 134 Food crops production trend 134 Land under cereal production 135 Cereal imports and exports 135 Cereal trade balance 135 Livestock production 136 Livestock and poultry production trends 136 Fish production 137 Calories available 138 Undernourished 138 Post-harvest production losses 144 Fertilizer consumption 156 Longitudinal profile of the river Nile 166 Hydropower generation in Nile countries 168 Projected energy demand and supply 169 Relative significance of hydropower 169 Electricity consumption 170 Extent of electrification 170 Projected investment requirements 171 Average unit cost of energy 180 Comparative energy costs 180 Road density 190 Total length of roads 191 Typical unit transport costs 191 Transport costs 191 Airports and airfields in the Nile region 193 Inland water ports in the Nile region 194 Share of goods moved by transport modes 196 Export trade volumes between downstream countries 199 International exports and imports 200 Seasonal water levels on potential navigation routes 202 Warming in the Nile region 208 Lake Victoria: annual net basin supply 213 Main hydro-metric network 218 Dam capacity 220 Rainfall variability and GDP

13 quick FACts ON the nile Name: Nile, from Neilos Greek name for the River God of Ancient Egypt Length: 6,695 km Source: Guinness World Records Navigable length: 4,149 km Source: NBI Basin map. Basin area: 3,176,543 km 2 Source: NBI Basin delineation. Location: 4 o S to 31 o N and 24 o E to 40 o E Riparian countries: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda Mean annual flow (at Aswan): 84 billion cubic metres/yr Source: JMP Scoping Study Report. Main tributaries and subbasins: Runoff coefficients of main sub-basins: Runoff coefficient for whole basin: Major lakes in the basin: Lake Victoria. Victoria+Albert Nile, Sudd (Bahr el Jebel), Bahr el Ghazal, Baro Pibor Sobat, Blue Nile (Abay), Atbara (Tekezze), White Nile, Main Nile 1% 16% Source: Computed from JMP Scoping Study Report. 4% Source: Computed from JMP Scoping Study Report. Victoria, Kyoga, Albert, Edward, Tana Highest point: 5,110 m (Mount Stanley, Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda) Source: worldatlas.com Lowest point: 133 m (Qattara Depression, Egypt) Source: worldatlas.com Precipitation: Total population of the Nile countries: Mean Max: 2,093 mm/yr (Gore, Ethiopia) Source: GIS/CRU Dataset Mean Min: 0 mm/yr (Lake Nasser, Egypt) Mean for entire basin: 1,046 mm/yr 437 million (2012) Source: UN Population Division. World Population Prospects, Population within basin: 238 million (54% of population of basin countries; 2012) Source: From combining Landscan 2009 and World Population Prospects, Major cities within basin: Kigali, Kampala, Entebbe, Mwanza, Kisumu, Jinja, Juba, Khartoum, Wad Medani, Addis Ababa (partly inside basin), Luxor, Cairo, Alexandria. Land use (2009): Shrublands and woodlands: 37.3% Bare soils: 30.8% Agricultural land: 11.6 % Grasslands: 10.3% Forests: 6.9% Water bodies: 3.0% Cities and built-up areas: 0.1% Main consumptive water-use Agriculture sector: Proportion consumed by agriculture: Major dams: Owen Falls, Jebel Aulia, Roseires, Sennar, Khasm el Girba, Merowe, Aswan High Source: ESA Global Landcover 2005, 2009; based on Meris data. 78% of the peak flow at Aswan Source: EWUAP, STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

14 POLITICAL MAP OF THE NILE REGION! Alexandria!! Suez Cairo N Nile Basin boundary international boundaries rivers lakes EGYPT M ain Nile! Aswan!! capital city other town/city! Wadi Halfa R e d Sea! Port Sudan THE SUDAN! Khartoum ERITREA! Asmara! El Obeid Blue Nile (Abay) White Nile! Addis Ababa! Bangui SOUTH SUDAN Juba! ETHIOPIA! Kinshasa Congo! Mbandaka DR CONGO RWANDA Bujumbura! Kampala! Kigali BURUNDI! Kigoma UGANDA! Lake Victoria! KENYA Nairobi! Mombasa Kahemba!! Tshikapa TANZANIA! Dodoma! Dar es Salaam km The NBI is not an authority on international boundaries. Lubumbashi! Mtwara! Area (km 3 ) Area falling within Nile Basin Area within Nile Basin as % of country area Area within basin as % of Nile Basin area Burundi 28,062 13, % 0.4% DR Congo 2,401,941 21, % 0.7% Egypt 996, , % 9.5% Eritrea 121,722 25, % 0.8% Ethiopia 1,144, , % 11.5% Kenya 593,116 51, % 1.6% Rwanda 24,550 20, % 0.6% South Sudan 635, , % 19.5% Sudan, The 1,864,049 1,396, % 44.0% Tanzania 933, , % 3.7% Uganda 241, , % 7.6% Source GAUL (Global Administrative Unit Layers; Projected GCS- WGS-1984-UTM Zone 36 N GAUL GAUL GAUL 13

15 ACRONYMS, AbbREviAtiONS, AND SYMBOLS AC alternating current AfDB African Development Bank ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer AU African Union BCM billion cubic metres BOD biochemical oxygen demand CAADP Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program CBWS Comprehensive Basinwide Study (of power development) CCSM3 coupled global climate model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA CEPGL Communauté Economique des pays des Grands Lacs cfu colony-forming units CNRM CM3 coupled global climate model developed by Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse, France COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CRA Comprehensive Regional Assessment CSIRO Mk3.0 global climate model developed by the Marine and Atmospheric Research Division at Aspendale, Australia DC direct current DR Congo The Democratic Republic of Congo DSS decision support system EAC East African Community EAPP East African Power Pool ECHAM 5 global climate model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EEPCO Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EIA environmental impact assessment ENSAP Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Progam ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office ESIA environmental and social impact assessment ET actual evapotranspiration FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organization Statistical Databases FTA Free Trade Area GCM general circulation model/global climate model GDP gross domestic product GIS geographic information system GNI gross national income GW gigawatt ha hectare HDI Human Development Index HDR Human Development Report IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IGADD Intergovernmental Authority on Drought and Development IPAR Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (Rwanda) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency IWRM integrated water resources management km kilometres 14 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

16 km 2 KV KWh L LAPSSET LVBC LVEMP m MERIS mg MIROC3.2 mm MW N NAMA NAPA NBI NBTF NEL NELSAP NELSAP-CU Nile-COM Nile-TAC NTEAP O 2 o C PET PPP$ RAP REC REMA SADC SAPP SAPs SoB Sp. SRES SSEA SVP TCU ton tonne UKMO-HadCM3 UN UNDP UNESCO US$ USc µs/cm WRI WRPM square kilometres kilovolts kilowatt hour litres Lamu Port and Lamu Southern Sudan Ethiopia Transport Corridor Lake Victoria Basin Commission Lake Victoria Environmental Management Program metres Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer one of the instruments on the European Space Agency s Environmental Satellite milligrammes model for interdisciplinary research on climate developed by the University of Tokyo, Japan millimetres megawatt north National Appropriate Mitigation Action National Plan of Adaptation Nile Basin Initiative Nile Basin Trust Fund Nile Equatorial Lakes Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit Nile Council of Water Ministers Nile Technical Advisory Committee Nile Transboundary Environmental Action Program oxygen degrees Celsius potential evapotranspiration purchasing power parity in United States dollars resettlement action plan regional economy community Rwanda Environmental Management Authority Southern Africa Development Community Southern African Power Pool Subsidiary Action Programs state of basin species Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Strategic Sectoral Social and Environmental Assessment Shared Vision Program true colour units imperial measurement of weight equal to tonne metric measurement of weight equal to ton Global climate model HadCM3 developed by the United Kingdom Met Office United Nations United Nations Development Program United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation United States dollars United States cents microsiemens per centimetre World Resources Institute Water Resources Planning and Management (project) 15

17 Photo CREDits We are grateful to the following for permission to use their photographs: Panos Pictures: 17 (left): Frederic Courbet; 17 (right): Andy Johnstone; 21 (top): Andy Johnstone; 22 (top): Dieter Telemans; 23 (middle): Mikkel Ostergaard; 23 (bottom): Petterik Wiggers; 52: Sven Torfin; 57: Dieter Telemanns; 58: Andy Johnstone; 62: Dieter Telemanns; 77 (bottom): Mark Henley; 93: Sean Sprague; 99 (top): Dieter Telemans; 100: Robin Hammond; 102 (bottom): Dieter Telemans; 107: Dieter Telemans; 111: Neil Cooper; 114 (top): Andy Johnstone; 114 (bottom): Trygve Bolstad; 116: Andrew McConnell; 130: JB Russell; 144: Andy Johnstone; 145: Andy Johnstone; 154: Jason Larkin; 158: Nick Robinson; 173: Andy Johnstone; 176: Caroline Penn; 179: Georg Gerster; 205 (left): Mikkel Ostergaard; 206: Frederic Courbet; 207: Mikkel Ostergaard; 216: Petterik Wiggers; 224: Mikkel Ostergaard; 225: Petterik Wiggers. istockphoto: 22 (bottom): Klaas Lingbeek-van Kranen ; 23 (top): Prill Mediendesign & Fotografie; 26: Prill Mediendesign & Fotografie; 34: William Davies; 48: Joel Carillet ; 63: Hagit Berkovich ; 66: Kunzendorf Fotografi; 67 (top): Guenter Guni ; 69: Daniel Loncarevic; 71: Yves Grau; 73: Liz Leyden; 75 (top): Dirk Freder ; 75 (bottom): Christian Musat; 82 (top): Warwick Lister-Kaye ; 83: Paul Banton; 84: Heinrich van den Berg; 85: Lyle Mallen; 96: Terraxplorer; 101: Guenter Guni; 102 (top): Joel Carillet; 102 (middle): Bruno Gilissen; 117 (top): Thaddeus Robertson; 121 (left): Guenter Guni; 122: Guenter Guni; 141: Brytta; 152: Claudiad; 163 (left): Klaas Lingbeek-van Kranen ; 163 (right): Liz Leyden; 164: Raimond Siebesma; 165 (top): Prill Mediendesign & Fotografie; 165 (bottom): Irina Efremova; 167 (bottom): Liz Leyden; 178 (bottom): Klaas Lingbeek- van Kranen ; 187 (left): Prill Mediendesign & Fotografie; 187 (right): Brett Charlton; 188: Klaas Lingbeek- van Kranen; 189 (top): Prill Mediendesign & Fotografie; 189 (bottom): Mac99; 192: Mark Linnard; 193: ewg3d; 198: M; 199: Brett Charlton; 212 (top): Guenter Guni; 212 (bottom): Joel Carillet ; 225 (right): Prill Mediendesign & Fotografie ; 232: Brett Charlton; 239 (middle): Guenter Guni. 17 (middle): IFAD / Sudan Environmental Database; 18: NBI / Daniel Massamba; 18: NBI / NBI Photo Bank; 19: NBI / Daniel Massamba; 21 (bottom): GIZ / Lotte Feuerstein; 22 (middle): IFAD / Robert Grossman; 25: Earth Snapshot / 25 (right): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 27: NBI / Nicholas Azza; 28: Earth Snapshot / 29: Earth Snapshot / 36 (top): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 36 (bottom): GIZ / Lotte Feuerstein; 42 UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 45 Earth Snapshot / 46 UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 49: China International Water & Electric Corp; 54: NBI; 57 (right): NBI; 61: NBI / Nicholas Azza; 62 (bottom): NBI / Nicholas Azza; 64 (top): NBI / Nicholas Azza; 64 (bottom): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 65 (barn swallow): Wikipedia; 65 (Caspian tern): Wikipedia / JJ Harrison; 65 (common crane): Wikipedia / Steve Garvi; 65 (greater spotted eagle): Wikipedia / JM Garg; 65 (saker falcon): Wikipedia / Gabor Papp; 65 (wheatear): Wikipedia / Philippe Kurlapski; 65 (white stork): Wikipedia / Kai Schreiber; 67 (bottom): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 70: UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 74: NBI / Nicholas Azza; 76 (top): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 76 (bottom): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 77 (top): NBI; 78: UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 79: UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 80: NBI / Nicholas Azza; 81 (top): NBI / Nicholas Azza; 81 (bottom): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 82 (bottom): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 87: NBI / Nicholas Azza; 88: NBI / Nicholas Azza; 91: Lake Victoria Commission; 93 (bottom): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 94: USAID; 110: IFAD / Radhika Chalasani; 117 (bottom): IFAD / Susan Beccio; 119 (top): IFAD / Taysir Al Ghanem; 119 (bottom): IFAD / Robert Grossman; 123: IFAD / Robert Grossman; 127: GIZ / Karoline Eickhoff; 127: GIZ / Karoline Eickhoff; 129: Cnes / Spot image; 129: Cnes / Spot image; 131: IFAD / Susan Beccio; 132: SON Fish Farm Let; 137: Egyptian Aquaculture Centre; 150: IFAD / Robert Grossman; 151: IFAD / Marco Salustro; 151 (top): IFAD / Susan Beccio; 155 (bottom): IFAD / Susan Beccio; 158: IFAD / Radhika Chalasani; 160: IFAD / Robert Grossman; 166: ENPI Info Centre / Bassam Al-Zoghby; 167 (top): Morgan Mbabazi; 171: NASA / Africa at night; 172: Morgan Mbabazi; 177: ENPI Info Centre / Bassam Al-Zoghby; 178 (top): Vergnet; 202: Barry Tyler canamancan.blogspot.co.uk; 203: Kenya Dept. of Environment; 205 (right): GIZ / Michael Tsegaye; 210: UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 211 (top): UNEP / Sudan Environmental Database; 211 (bottom): IFAD / Giacomo Pirozzi; 213: Jannet King; 219: GIZ / Michael Tsegaye; 222: NBI; 233: IFAD / Robert Grossman; 235 (top): NBI; 235 (bottom): NBI; 237: Kenana Estate; 239 (left): GIZ / Frank Kansiime 239 (right): NBI. 16 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

18 Chapter 1 Introduction 17

19 THE STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN REPORTS The State of the River Nile Basin 2012 is the first in a series of reports that will be produced every three years, targeted at policy makers, parliamentarians, and senior government officials in the riparian countries; the international development community; and the general public in the Nile Basin. The reports will provide accurate, reliable, and up-to-date information on the river and its tributaries, along with objective analyses and insights into the biophysical and ecological settings, and the social, cultural, and economic conditions within the basin. THE NILE BASIN INITIATIVE (NBI) This state of basin report has been prepared by the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), an intergovernmental partnership of ten Nile riparian countries (Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, The Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda). The Initiative, which was established in 1999, seeks to develop the River Nile in a cooperative manner, share the socio-economic benefits arising from utilization of the water resources of the Nile, and promote regional peace and security to achieve its shared vision of: sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources. The institutional structure of the NBI consists of a Council of Ministers of Water of the member countries (Nile-COM), a Nile Technical Advisory Committee (Nile-TAC), and a regional secretariat (Nile- SEC) located in Entebbe, Uganda. The NBI also operates two subbasin offices the Nile Equatorial Lake Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit (NELSAP-CU) located in Kigali, Rwanda, and the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Previous page, left to right: Fisherman on Lake Victoria, near Kampala; Irrigation scheme, utilizing Nego River, Ethiopia; Rusumo Falls, Kagera River. Below, from left to right: Members of the Nile Council of Water Ministers (Nile-COM) pose for a photograph after attending a meeting in Sharm el Sheikh, 2010; The NBI Secretariat offices in Entebbe, Uganda. 18 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

20 introduction PURPOSE OF THE REPORT The primary purpose of the state of basin report is to support informed decision-making. Through the presentation of factual information and expert analyses, it will inform, educate and empower basin communities to exercise better stewardship of the common Nile water and environmental resources. The report helps to discern trends over time, including into the future, and to facilitate the understanding of complex issues. It draws attention to emerging issues and the need for appropriate management responses before the issues become critical. By so doing, it is hoped that the State of the River Nile Basin 2012 will be an important first step on the path to an increased understanding of the: importance of the Nile in the daily lives and wellbeing of the basin communities, both upstream and downstream present condition of the Nile water and related environmental resources; drivers of change in the state of the resources and their impacts on ecosystem health and human wellbeing root causes of the development challenges in the Nile Basin, and the opportunities and challenges with respect to the sustainable management and development of the basin resources inter-dependence of Nile riparian countries, and the critical role that cooperation can play in optimizing the benefits and bringing about equitable utilization of the common Nile Basin water and environmental resources. Experience from transboundary river basins in Europe has shown that the operation of common basin monitoring tools can contribute to mutual trust and joint policy-making. The state of basin report, a common planning tool for the basin, is expected, therefore, to contribute to the building of trust and confidence amongst Nile riparian countries. The report is further expected to generate discussion on broad basin issues, and trigger common policy interventions to address highlighted challenges. Members of Nile-TAC sharing knowledge. 19

21 HOW THE REPORT WAS PREPARED The State of the River Nile Basin 2012 is mainly based on information in the public domain. The report was written by teams of NBI staff, supported and guided by an external consultant. Additional consultants were engaged to peer review the report, while a professional firm was brought in to manage the graphic design and editorial process. On completion of the draft report, a group of stakeholders drawn from various sectors in the Nile riparian countries validated the report. The process for preparation of the report involved the improvement of the systems for organizing, storing, analyzing, retrieving, and sharing data within the NBI. The process also involved the selection of indicators with which to illustrate the state of biophysical and ecological resources, and the status of human development in the basin. Indicators are a tool used to quantify and simplify complex phenomena and ease the understanding of complex realities. The selected indicators will be integrated into the proposed Nile Basin Strategic Monitoring Network, and will be reported upon in all subsequent publications of the report, which will thus serve as a monitoring and evaluation tool for the basin. 1 Conceptualization brainstorming purpose, target readership, writing style, data source, methodology preparing Concept Note PROCESS FOR PREPARATION OF STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 Internal Review reading draft chapters 5 2 Steering Mechanism appointing NBI Activity Leader appointing NBI SoB Working Group procuring external support (Task Manager) Validation review by TAC and country experts review by DPs 8 Report Outline agreeing on chapters preparing storylines selecting indicators forming chapter working groups 3 Draft Report editorial review typesetting and layout printing draft report Drafting the Chapters acquiring/reviewing documents and data drafting text preparing maps 7 4 External Peer Review reading draft chapters 6 9 Approval appraisal by Nile-TAC approval by Nile-COM Printing printing of report disseminating of report STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

22 introduction ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK There are many tools used to describe and quantify the environment. The State of the River Nile Basin reports follow a Driving Force Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) framework for analyzing the health of the basin. The DPSIR framework is based on the premise that different driving forces (or sectors of national development such as transport, agriculture, industry, and mining) produce pressures on the environment (such as water pollution and land-use changes), which then degrade the state of the environment (biodiversity, water quality, soil quality, etc), which in turn impacts on human and ecosystem health, causing society to respond with policy measures and development programmes. Two of the chapters present the current state of the water and environmental resources of the basin. They also describe the driving forces and pressures that are causing a change in state, enumerate the impact of the pressures, and list society s responses to the threats to the environment. Five chapters take a closer look at the important driving forces in the basin. Top to bottom: The Blue Nile (Tis Issat) Falls, Ethiopia; the Sudd, Republic of South Sudan. REPORT STRUCTURE The State of the River Nile Basin 2012 has nine chapters. This first chapter outlines the purpose and motivation for the report and the way it has been organized. The chapters immediately following this introduction present the state of the basin s biophysical and ecological resources. Chapter Two describes the hydrology of the River Nile and its subbasins, and presents the waters resources of the basin in terms of their availability in space and time, current uses, and ability to meet the needs of present and future generations. Chapter Three is devoted to the environment, and draws attention to the mounting pressure on environmental resources from human activities. It enumerates the main ecosystems of the basin and their characteristics with respect to geographic and climatic factors, dominant plant and animal species, and socio-economic uses. It elaborates the threats to the sustainability of the environmental resources, and states the underlying causes of the threats. It reviews past and ongoing efforts to address the environmental threats, and ends with suggestions for improving environmental governance at the transboundary level. 21

23 Chapter Four focuses on demography. Growth in human population is the primary factor behind the escalating demand for water for various uses, such as agriculture, domestic water supply, hydropower generation, fisheries production, industrial production, and recreation. Population growth is also the main factor responsible for land degradation and environmental pollution. Therefore, managing the basin s population growth is critical to achieving sustainable utilization of the water and environmental resources of the basin. The chapter looks at issues related to human population: its spatial distribution, growth rates and the opportunities and challenges that it presents for the socio-economic development of individual riparian countries and the basin as a whole. Chapter Five addresses the issues surrounding agriculture and food security. Agriculture consumes more water than any other sector in the Nile Basin, despite the fact that irrigated agriculture is mainly practised in only two downstream countries (The Sudan and Egypt). The other countries are almost entirely dependent on rainfed agriculture for the production of food and cash crops. The chapter describes the characteristics of irrigated and rainfed agriculture, the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural production and food security, and options available for riparian countries to increase agricultural productivity and production without drawing more water from the Nile. Chapter Six examines issues surrounding the development of hydroelectric power in the Nile Basin. This is the next most important water-use sector in the basin after agriculture, and is critical for reducing the huge energy deficit of the riparian countries. At present, the level of electricity production and consumption within the Nile Basin countries is very low compared to other parts of the world. At the same time, there are proposals to build some of the world s largest dams in the basin. The chapter describes the situation with respect to hydropower development in the Nile riparian countries, the opportunities for development of additional hydropower sites, challenges related to financing and potential environmental and social impacts, and opportunities for enhancing national energy security through regional power interconnection and power trade. 22 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

24 introduction Chapter Seven is devoted to transportation in general and inland water transport in particular. Inland water transport is not as important in the Nile Basin as in some other basins, such as the Congo and Rhine. Nevertheless, if properly developed, it could play a complementary role to other modes of transport in deepening regional integration and trade. The chapter examines the existing regional transport corridors, compares the cost of transporting goods from the rest of the world to destinations within the basin, and the investment needed in the transport sector to improve the competitiveness of agricultural and industrial exports from the basin. Chapter Eight reviews the cross-cutting issue of climate change, and its potential impacts on ecosystems and socio-economic development. The chapter describes the features of the current climate which is characterized by high variability and goes on to examine evidence for the occurrence of climate change in the basin. The chapter highlights the likely harmful impacts of climate change on sectors such as transport, communication, agriculture, energy, and wildlife conservation, and suggests possible transboundary-level interventions to enhance the basin s resilience to climate change. Chapter Nine is a synthesis of all the chapters. It presents the conclusions of the report, and highlights the main recommendations for management interventions at national and transboundary level. It also presents a list of water hotspots (areas where there is high pressure on water resources) and hopespots (areas of significant success in water resources management). The Annexes include indicators relating to the Nile Basin referred to in the text; additional indicators for future reporting; the sources for the text, graphics, and maps; a list of credits for the photographs; an index. Left, from top: School children, Rwanda; Farmers, Uganda; Nalubaale Power Station, Uganda. Above: Dredger, Egypt; Parched landscape, Moroto District, Uganda; Malakal, South Sudan. KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS The State of the River Nile Basin 2012 is available in hardcopy and as an interactive PDF document accessible from the NBI s website ( 23

25 24 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

26 Chapter 2 The Water Resources of the Nile Basin Soroti ( ) A v e r a g e m o n t h l y r a i n f a l l J F M A M J J A S O N D 25

27 KEY MESSAGES The Nile Basin is characterized by high climatic diversity and variability, a low percentage of rainfall reaching the main river, and an uneven distribution of its water resources. Potential evaporation rates in the Nile region are high, making the basin particularly vulnerable to drought. White Nile flows only contribute up to 15 per cent of the annual Nile discharge, but are fairly stable throughout the year. The Eastern Nile region supplies up to 90 per cent of annual Nile flows, but its contribution is highly seasonal. Extensive regional aquifer systems holding substantial quantities of groundwater underlie the Nile region. Some of the aquifers hold fossil water, but others are recharged from precipitation over the basin, or from irrigation areas and the baseflow of the Nile. Groundwater is the dominant source of domestic water supply in rural communities across the basin. The quality of the Nile waters has generally deteriorated because of population growth, intensification of agriculture, and industrial development. Across the basin, environmental sanitation is poor, resulting in bacteriological contamination and nutrient enrichment of the Nile waters. While the quality of large parts of the Nile system in particular in the sparsely populated areas remains acceptable, localized high pollution is experienced mainly around urban centres. Groundwater in isolated locations also has naturally occurring high levels of dissolved minerals. The headwater regions of the Nile are subject to widespread soil erosion. Sediment yields are particularly high in the Eastern Nile sub-basin, which contributes 97 per cent of the total sediment load. Most sediment is captured in reservoirs in The Sudan and Egypt, which leads to a rapid loss of reservoir storage capacity. The finite Nile flows are now fully utilized for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and environmental purposes, while water demand continues to rise steadily due to population growth and economic development. Irrigated agriculture in Egypt and The Sudan represents the single most important consumer of the waters of the Nile, but the upper riparians are planning investments that will use the river s renewable discharge and present challenges concerning the equitable appropriation of the Nile water resources amongst the Nile riparian countries. Recommended regional-level actions for consideration by the Nile riparian countries include the restoration of degraded water catchments that are critical for sustaining the flow of the major Nile tributaries, restoring badly degraded lands that export large quantities of sediments and cause serious siltation in the Nile tributaries, and establishing a regional hydrometric and environmental monitoring system. The River Nile, Egypt. 26 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

28 Chapter 3 The Environmental Resources of the Nile Basin 12.3% forests cities/ built-up areas grasslands 4.7% water bodies 1.3% 1.0% shrublands & woodlands 1.4% bare soils agricultural land 10.1% 17.9% 57

29 KEY MESSAGES The Nile Basin has many unique aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, and is home to thousands of species of plants and animals, many of them endemic to the basin. The basin s water and related environmental resources provide a wide range of societal goods and services, contributing between 40 and 60 per cent of the gross domestic product of the Nile riparian countries. The Nile s system of waterways and wetlands constitutes an important flight path for migratory birds and also a destination for migratory birds from other regions of Africa. Seventeen aquatic and wetland ecosystems within the basin have been designated as international Ramsar sites. Natural resources of the Nile Basin are under increasing pressure from a multiplicity of sources, mainly agriculture, livestock, invasive species, bushfires, mining, urbanization, climate change, and natural disasters. Many protected areas (national parks and game, wildlife, and forest reserves) have been established to conserve the basin s unique ecosystems, with mixed conservation success. The root causes of the rapid degradation of the basin s environmental resources are population growth, poverty, civil insecurity, and weak policy, legal, and institutional frameworks in the Nile riparian countries. The Lake Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) are examples of a growing number of regional frameworks established in recent years to address environmental degradation within the Nile Basin. Key recommendations for regional-level actions by the Nile riparian countries include the restoration of degraded water catchments critical for sustaining the flow of the major Nile tributaries, restoring badly degraded lands that export large quantities of sediments and cause serious siltation of reservoirs, and establishing a regional network for monitoring changes in water quality and landuse within the basin. Clearing water hyacinth, an invasive species that has had an adverse impact on many parts of the Nile Basin, including parts of Lake Victoria. 58 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

30 Chapter 4 Opportunities and Challenges of the Growing Nile Population Rwanda 10m Burundi 9m Eritrea 5m Uganda 34m Kenya 41m Ethiopia 85m Sudan 43m Egypt 84m Tanzania 45m DR Congo 68m Population million 99

31 KEY MESSAGES The Nile countries have a combined population of 437 million, 54 per cent of which (238 million) resides in the Nile Basin. Water availability appears to be the chief determinant of population distribution in the basin. In Egypt and Sudan, population is largely concentrated along the course of the River Nile, while in the upstream countries it follows the pattern of rainfall distribution. The population in the region is rising rapidly, presenting governments with both opportunities and challenges. The rising population increases availability of labour for economic production, and ensures a large market for food produce, manufactured goods, and services. But the rising population also increases degradation of natural resources, puts pressure on economic infrastructure (transport, education, health, water, and power and telecommunication facilities), increases food security concerns, and leads to rural urban migration, with the attendant problems of rapid urbanization. The factors maintaining high population growth rates are numerous, including widespread poverty, illiteracy, cultural norms, low access to reproductive health services, lack of empowerment, and civil war. Concerted efforts by the riparian governments at addressing high population growth rates in the 1980s and 1990s produced sharp reductions in fertility rates. Fertility rates have continued to decline in the region but more slowly. About 72 per cent of the basin population resides in rural areas. The dominance of rural populations is predicted to persist to 2030 and beyond in most Nile countries. Considering that the factors that enabled a large population to make a positive contribution to economic development are not well established in most of the Nile countries, the challenges posed by the rising population far outweigh its benefits, and threaten to prevent these countries from becoming middle-income economies by 2025 or To achieve the ultimate goal of slowing the rate of population growth, the basin states need to increase funding for activities aimed at managing the population growth, and to intensify efforts at holistic rural development. Women and children in Rwanda queue to collect tablets during the Mother and Child Health Week, held in April Improving the health of women and children is seen as an incentive to have smaller families. 100 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

32 33,000 Chapter 5 Agriculture, Food Security, and Livelihoods in the Nile Basin DR CONGO UGANDA 26,000 25,000 KENYA BURUNDI RWANDA TANZANIA 121

33 KEY MESSAGES The agricultural sector is of great importance to the Nile Basin countries as it is a major contributor to GDP, employment, and food security. Agriculture is also the largest water-consuming sector: irrigated agriculture alone uses the equivalent of about 78 per cent of the peak flow of the Nile at Aswan. Close to 90 per cent of the land currently used for agriculture is under rainfed farming systems. These systems are characterized by subsistence-level production and low yields of crops and livestock. There is about 5.6 million hectares of land under irrigation or equipped with irrigation facilities in the Nile Basin. A large proportion 97 per cent of the land is located in Egypt and The Sudan, with the remaining 3 per cent distributed among the upper riparian states. Productivity and wateruse efficiency is high in the irrigation schemes in Egypt, and on commercial irrigation schemes in the rest of the basin, but generally low in the large smallholder irrigation schemes in The Sudan. Three countries Egypt, Tanzania, and Uganda produce large quantities of fish, but the freshwater fisheries resources of the basin are showing signs of being overfished. The potential of the agricultural sector is large, but it is held back by constraints in both the natural resource base and the policy, institutional, and economic environment. The agro-processing sector in the region except for that in Egypt is poorly developed. Production levels for food crops have been rising over the years, but food production in the Nile countries falls short of local demands, and all countries are net food importers. Trade volumes between Nile Basin countries are low, as none of them generates sufficient surpluses to support high-volume trade. Trade links between the downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) and the rest of the basin states are very weak. To produce sufficient food to feed the basin population and generate surplus for regional trade, the basin countries need to concurrently implement a wide range of measures targeting the multiple constraints affecting the agricultural sector. The present situation of dominance of smallholder rainfed subsistence farming in the upper riparian countries is likely to persist to 2030 and beyond. To improve rural livelihoods and enhance food security in the region, it will be necessary, therefore, to improve the productivity of this farming system through, for example, introducing water and soil conservation techniques, providing quality seeds, and encouraging use of fertilizers. From the perspective of water management, interventions to increase agricultural productivity should include programmes to increase rainwater harvesting, expand irrigated areas, improve the water-retention properties of soil in the upstream countries, and improve productivity and water-use efficiency in the downstream countries. Smallholder rainfed fields in Uganda. 122 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

34 0 Chapter 6 Hydropower Potential and the Region s Rising Energy Demand 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,

35 KEY MESSAGES Power/electricity is a critical requirement for growth and economic production in the Nile countries. In particular, it is important for attracting new investments to the region, supporting expansion of the industrial and service sectors, creating employment and improving living standards. The Nile riparian countries are endowed with substantial energy resources that include hydropower potential, natural gas, oil, geothermal energy, coal, peat, biomass, solar, and wind. Among the various energy options, hydropower is the most attractive to the Nile countries because of its long economic life and low per unit energy costs. The hydropower potential in the Nile Basin exceeds 20 GW. Existing facilities only represent about 26 per cent of potential capacity. The Nile countries depend on hydropower to varying degrees, with Burundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia, and Uganda reliant on it for 80 per cent or more of their power. Electricity supply in the Nile countries (with the exception of Egypt) is inadequate, unreliable, and expensive. Accordingly, electricity consumption in the region is among the lowest in the world. Urban areas are significantly better served than rural areas, where the bulk of the population remains dependent on biomass energy sources, with associated negative impacts on the environment. The Nile Basin remains the only region on the African continent without a functional regional power grid. The volumes of power traded amongst Nile countries are insignificant. Demand for power in the region is high, rising rapidly, and will exceed supply for many years. The rise in demand is driven by, among other things, improving economic conditions and rising population in the basin. Projections of power demand for 2035 in the Nile countries indicate an increase of 300 percent and higher over present demand. Very large investments in power generation and transmission in the range of tens of billions of dollars are required for a sustained period to meet the region s power demand. Hydropower is the preferred energy source for most Nile countries. To tap and sustainably exploit the vast hydropower potential of the region, the countries need to plan and develop the water resources cooperatively, and mainstream environmental and social considerations in all aspects of power development. Balancing the interests of competing sectors and different countries while optimizing hydropower production will require coordinated reservoir operation across the basin. Total power demand will eventually exceed hydropower potential, and alternative power sources will need to be developed. The NBI is contributing to the transformation of the region s power sector by providing a forum for joint planning and cooperative development of hydropower generation and transmission options, and promoting power pooling amongst the Nile countries. The NBI has developed analytical tools such as the Nile-DSS that make it possible to quantify costs, benefits, and tradeoff in power options, and allow for avoidance of harmful impacts to existing water uses. Urban electricity supply in northern Ethiopia. 164 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

36 Chapter 7 The Role of Inland Water Transport in Support of Further Regional Integration unit cost 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 TYPICAL UNIT TRANSPORT COSTS For different transport means as a function of distance truck rail 1,000 2,000 3,000 d i s t a n c e ( k m ) long-haul container ship 187

37 KEY MESSAGES The land-locked economies of the upper Nile region are hampered by expensive road transportation and logistics that have generally reduced their economic opportunities. Efforts under the African Union and regional economic communities have resulted in (especially) improved road interconnections between the Nile countries. However, the transport and trade links between upstream and downstream riparians remain weak. The absence of a reliable and cost-effective north south transportation link has constrained trade relations between the upstream and downstream riparians, and represents a lost opportunity for regional integration. Economic development in the Nile countries, combined with prospective mineral resources, fossil fuels, and agricultural potential, justify investment in bulk cargo transport infrastructure. Several reaches of the Nile could form elements of a comprehensive bulk cargo transportation system that could provide cost-effective access to internal and external markets. Developing the inland navigation potential of the river Nile in particular the southern reach from Kosti to Juba may provide a low-cost transport route for bulk cargo from South Sudan and the Nile Equatorial Lakes region to The Sudan and Egypt; it could thus encourage north south intra-basin trade and regional integration. Lake Victoria could provide a critical link between the Northern Corridor (Kigali Kampala Mombasa) and the Central Corridor (Dar es Salaam Tabora Mwanza), and enlarge the economic impact zone of the respective corridors; improved Lake Victoria navigation would also strengthen inter-regional transport connections and economic integration. Trading vessel setting out from Jinja, Lake Victoria. 188 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

38 Chapter 8 Climate Change and its Implications for the Nile Region 205

39 KEY MESSAGES There is overwhelming scientific evidence of a warming trend in the Earth s temperature, and consensus about the movement towards intensified extreme events such as floods and droughts. The Nile Basin is highly vulnerable to the impacts of global warming owing to a multiplicity of factors, and the basin communities have limited ability to cope with the negative impacts of climate variability. Nile flows are very sensitive to small changes in average basin rainfall, but the Nile Basin consists of a number of distinct sub-basins that each respond quite differently to possible climatic variations. Although the impacts of a global warming trend are not yet clear at regional and local level, the basin countries would do well to implement a number of no-regret or proactive measures aimed at building resilience to current climate variability while enhancing adaptive capacity for future threats. A sensible approach for now would be to prepare for more variable conditions than currently recorded. A prioritized no-regret measure is to expand water-storage infrastructure. The National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPAs) and the early warning systems being developed in the Nile Basin countries represent a substantial effort but are insufficient to prepare effectively for a changing climate, given the scale of the threat. Climate-change adaptation measures will be most effective when undertaken in coordination with other riparians. Examples of joint measures to enhance the collective adaptive capacity include coordinated reservoir operation, promoting agricultural trade amongst the countries and between the basin and other regions, interconnecting power and transport systems, developing joint mechanisms for resource solicitation for climate-change programmes, and conducting joint research. A farmer in Kobo district of Ethiopia surveys his drought-damaged crop. 206 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

40 Chapter 9 Summary: The State of the River Nile Basin POPULATION GROWTH

41 A MAJOR TRANSBOUNDARY RIVER BASIN WITH LITTLE WATER The Nile is generally regarded as the longest river in the world, and has a drainage area exceeding 3 million square kilometres, shared by 11 countries. From south to north, the river flows over 35 degrees of latitude, traversing highly diverse landscapes and climatic zones. The river has two main tributaries: the White Nile and the Blue Nile (Abay). Both begin their journeys in relatively humid areas, with annual rainfall ranging from 1,200 to 2,000 mm, and meet at Khartoum. From this point onwards, the river flows northwards through the Sahara desert, where precipitation is less than 100 mm per year. The two main tributaries have very distinct hydrologic regimes. The Blue Nile (Abay) and the other rivers coming from the Ethiopian Highlands contribute between 80 and 90 per cent of the Nile s flow, but are highly seasonal and carry high sediment loads. The White Nile, by contrast, has a steady flow, with low sediment content, and contributes some 10 to 20 per cent to the annual Nile discharge. Distinguishing features of the Nile Basin include: climatic diversity uneven distribution of the water resources a relatively small volume of runoff compared to the size of the basin. Annual renewable Nile flow is just over 80 cubic kilometres. Just how small this volume is becomes clear when comparing it to the annual discharge of the river Congo estimated at some 1,300 cubic kilometres which drains an area only 30 per cent larger. Large parts of the Nile Basin are situated in semi-arid and arid zones that do not generate runoff. Internal water losses are large, caused by evapotranspiration in the extensive wetland areas, by in-stream losses in the desert zone, and by evaporation in the large, constructed reservoirs, such as Lake Nasser/Nubia and Jebel el Aulia. The quality of the Nile waters has generally deteriorated in recent decades because of increases in population, intensification of agricultural activities, industrial development, and accelerating soil erosion. Nevertheless, water quality in large parts of the Nile system in particular in the sparsely populated areas is still within the standards of the riparian countries and of the World Health Organization. Localized high pollution is experienced around the main urban areas, mainly as a result of untreated industrial and municipal waste. The Equatorial Lakes are subject to eutrophication as excessive amounts of nutrients reach the water bodies and create frequent algae blooms. High sediment yield is a major issue in the river reaches originating in the Ethiopian Highlands, where watersheds suffer severe land degradation due to the extended dry season followed by torrential rains, the nature of their geology, and current land-use practices. Indicators This chapter summarizes the contents of the preceding chapters. It is to be read together with the quantitative State of Basin Indicators presented in the Annex 1. Images on previous page: The Nile as it flows past Malakal, South Sudan. The growth factor of the populations of Nile Basin countries since The intensively farmed slopes of the Virunga Mountains, Uganda. 226 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

42 the STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 The Nile flows are fully used for productive and environmental purposes. Most are used for irrigated agriculture in Egypt and The Sudan, while hydropower represents the main non-consumptive use. The potential for further supply increase is limited, while the waterdemand curve continues its steady rise due to ongoing population growth and economic development. Further, the upper riparians up to now barely using Nile waters are increasingly looking to the Nile as a source of water supply, thereby increasing competition over use of the Nile water resources. Applying integrated water resources management approaches to ensure that the resources are equitably shared and sustainably managed will be of critical importance in the coming years. ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES UNDER INCREASING PRESSURE The Nile has hugely diverse ecosystems, ranging from montane forests and moorlands, through humid lowlands forests and bushlands, to savannah grasslands and steppes. The aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems of the Nile Basin are home to a large number of plant and animal species, including some that are endemic to the basin. The faunal community, now mainly concentrated in game parks and other conservation areas, include large game, such as elephant, hippo, and lions. Two ecosystems within the basin feature spectacular annual mass migrations of large mammals. A unique feature of the Nile Basin is the large swathe (42 per cent of basin area) of arid and hyper-arid land, with plant and animal communities that contrast strongly with those in the numerous massive wetlands systems. The wetlands and waterways of the Nile harbour large resident bird populations, and are visited by millions of migratory birds. Seventeen locations within the River Nile Basin have been designated as International Ramsar sites. The riparian communities of the Nile Basin are very heavily dependent on exploitation of environmental resources for their livelihoods and general wellbeing. The environmental resources are used for various services such as climate and hydrologic regime regulation, and as a source of food, fuel wood, building materials, and industrial materials. The environment contributes between 40 and 60 per cent of the GDP of the member states. Degradation mainly results from human pressures in diverse areas. The most notable of the pressures arise from agriculture, livestock production, bush fires, poaching, urbanization, industrial development, mining, domestic energy consumption, invasive species, and civil insecurity. Partly as a consequence of human activities, the area of forest in the Nile countries shrank by proportions ranging from 4 to 39 percent between 1990 and Rwanda and Egypt are the only countries in The demand for water continues to rise but there is limited potential for an increase in supply The environment contributes up to 60 per cent of the GDP of basin states 227

43 the region that saw an increase in forest area over the same period. (See Chapter 3.) As well as human pressures, there are a number of natural pressures contributing to the degradation of the environment in the basin, the main ones being climate change, desertification, and natural disasters. The underlying causes of the mounting pressure on environmental resources are rapid population growth, high levels of poverty, and civil insecurity in many parts of the basin. A sustainable solution to the environmental degradation in the basin must include actions to tackle these issues. Most of the countries have a comprehensive suite of policies, laws, and strategic plans in different fields related to environmental management. Except in a few countries, there is a clear national lead agency for the environment. National systems for environmental impact assessment are also in place, although the strength of the system varies from country to country. Weaknesses are more numerous than strengths, and include inadequate human capacity, inadequate budgets, weak enforcement of environmental laws, and weak mechanisms for intersectoral collaboration. In general, Burundi, DR Congo, and South Sudan have relatively weaker policy, legal, and institutional frameworks for environmental governance compared with the other Nile countries. A LARGE AND RISING POPULATION The basin is home to a large population that is growing rapidly. According to the United Nations Population Division (medium variant projection), the total population in the Nile Basin states will reach 647 million by 2030, which represents an increase of 52 per cent from the population in It is estimated that just over half of these people will be living within the basin boundaries. Poverty is widespread, and socio-economic conditions are difficult for a large majority of the Nile citizens. In the Human Development Report 2010, six Nile Basin countries were ranked among the bottom 25 in terms of their HDI score, while Eritrea had no ranking. Food security is a critical concern. The average daily calorie intake in all Nile countries except Egypt is below the 3,000 kcal/person/day threshold that indicates the absence of undernourishment in a nation. The socio-economic conditions in the Nile Basin are characterized by large inequalities, both among the basin states and within the individual countries. Per capita income in Egypt the richest country in the basin is 20 times higher than in the Democratic Republic of Congo the basin s poorest nation. The Gini coefficient which measures economic inequality is above 40 in four out of eight Nile countries (no data are available for Eritrea, South Sudan, and The The area of forest in the basin shrank by 18% from 2005 to 2009 (MerIS) The population of the basin is projected to increase by 52% by 2030 (UNPD) 228 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

44 the STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 Sudan), indicating very substantial differences in income and wealth in the nation. The annual growth rate of the urban population is estimated between 4 and 5 per cent, but a large majority of Nile citizens in 2030 will still be living in rural areas. Even by 2050, the rural population is expected to dominate in Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda, and remain substantial in other riparian states. The large rural population which intimately depends on the natural resource base for its food security and livelihood is a factor that will be a major determinant of the focus and pace of socio-economic development in the Nile basin. Developing the non-agricultural sector of the economy is critical to taking pressure off land in rural areas. In the headwater regions of the Nile, the inadequate transport system and insufficient power supply have been among the factors holding back economic growth. Furthermore, the business environment in the Nile region is generally not favourable. On the World Bank website Doing Business, in the ranking for Ease of doing business for 2011, three Nile countries are among the lowest ranking 25, and only Rwanda (67) was in the top 100. The growing population puts unprecedented pressure on the Nile system, both with regard to water use and pollution. Demand for food produce will almost double by 2030 because of higher per capita calorie intake associated with economic development and the larger population. A large and rising population can be an engine for growth when the proper conditions for development in terms of schooling, infrastructure, and business environments, for example are in place. Given the resource limitations and the current socio-economic situation in the Nile Basin, however, it is likely that the challenges posed by a rising population will outweigh its benefits. THE STRUGGLE TO MEET DOMESTIC NUTRITIONAL DEMAND A key feature of the Nile basin is the large share of the population active in the agricultural sector. Only in Egypt with 32 per cent of the labour force engaged in agricultural production is this proportion below 75 per cent. However, despite its prominent role in the economy, and importance to the livelihood of the very large rural population, the agricultural production system is generally inefficient, and is characterized by very low yields. Notable exceptions are irrigated agriculture in Egypt and a number of large commercial operations irrigated or rainfed elsewhere. More than 87 per cent of the cultivated land in the basin is under rainfed agriculture, the dominant farming system in the upper riparians being smallholder subsistence rainfed. Although annual rainfall is quite substantial in these areas, yields are generally low, leading to low agricultural water productivity. 229

45 Egypt and The Sudan rely almost exclusively on irrigated agriculture that depends on Nile waters. Their combined acreage exceeds 4.5 million hectares and represents the single largest consumptive use of the Nile waters. The total area in the upper Nile countries under formal irrigation is estimated at less than 50,000 hectares. While yields are generally high in Egypt, this is not the case for the large smallholder systems in The Sudan. The potential of the agricultural sector in the Nile basin is large, but its performance is held back by many constraining factors. These are both related to the natural resource base, and to the economic and institutional environment. Poor soil fertility and highly variable rainfall in the planting season are prominent among the biophysical constraints. There are also non-biophysical constraining factors that include unstable land tenure, absence of profitable and predictable farm-gate prices, and weak extension services. Improving agricultural productivity is central to rural development and to enhancing the prospects of attaining national and regional food security. While this is possible, it depends on simultaneously implementing a coordinated set of policy measures to tackle the multiple biophysical and non-biophysical constraints. Thus, besides improving water availability and agricultural extension services, national agricultural and economic development policies need, among other things, to concern themselves with making farming a profitable enterprise so as to provide the incentive for farmers to invest time, labour, and financial resources in soil and water conservation measures. Remedial measures implemented in isolation are likely to prove ineffective. With the exception of Egypt, the agro-industrial sector in the Nile basin is characterized by low production volumes, mostly serving local and immediate neighbouring markets. The sector s potential to create employment, increase the monetary value of agricultural produce, and foster critical rural development is not captured. Inadequate rural infrastructure, frequent electricity shortages, high power tariffs, and a generally poor enabling environment all contribute to the poor performance of the agro-industrial sector. With a rapidly rising population, the Nile countries are working hard to meet nutritional requirements, but none of them is currently generating a food surplus. Trade in agricultural commodities amongst the Nile riparian states has huge potential, and could promote rural development and regional integration. However, without surplus production of food products such as cereals in the countries with a potential food surplus such as Uganda, South Sudan, and The Sudan, intra-basin agricultural trade is currently very limited. The trade potential can only be realized when these countries can increase agricultural productivity so that production exceeds domestic demand. Three Nile countries are among lowest ranked in terms of ease of doing business (World Bank) Improving agricultural productivity is central to development and food security 230 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

46 the STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 THE NILE S POTENTIAL FOR MEETING ENERGY NEEDS Electricity production per capita in all Nile riparians except Egypt is very low, with six countries generating less than 100 kwh per person per year, compared to the world average in 2007 of 2,752. This low electricity production forms a real barrier to industrialization, the addition of value to agricultural products, and economic development in general. In rural areas in the upstream riparian states, only a small fraction of the population has access to grid electricity. This not only hinders development, but perpetuates the high dependency on biomass energy sources that adversely affects the environment. Urban electrification rates are higher, but only Egypt and Ethiopia have connected more than 80 per cent of the urban population to the grid (no data is available for South Sudan or The Sudan). With large unmet demands, growing populations, and improving socio-economic conditions, power demand is huge and rising rapidly, requiring large investments in power generation in the coming years. The hydropower potential in the Nile Basin exceeds 28 GW, of which only 26 per cent is currently developed. This potential, if developed, can meet a considerable part of the future energy demand. In the longer term, however, energy demand will exceed hydropower potential, and alternative power sources are therefore needed. Furthermore, hydropower development involves very long lead times, and developing thermal capacity may be necessary to avoid power shortages in the short- and mid-term. Expanding power trade will assist in alleviating power shortages and reducing electricity costs, and will create a more robust electricity supply. Power trade in 2011 is very limited, but the regulatory infrastructure for a regional power pool has been put in place, while work is ongoing to build the regional transmission grid. Hydropower potential in the basin is 28 GW, of which only 26% is currently developed A WATERWAY OF GROWING SIGNIFICANCE The transport system in the upper Nile region is generally inadequate and leads to high transport costs that reduce economic opportunities. The railway lines connecting the harbours on the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean to the upper Nile region are inefficient and have limited capacity. Most cargo, therefore, is shipped by trailer truck to the hinterland over a small and inadequate road network. It leads to high transport costs and transit times. The cost of shipping from overseas to the Lake Victoria region is 70 to 100 per cent more than to the ports of Mombasa or Dar es Salaam, which constrains export potential and makes essential imports more expensive. A bulk cargo transport link between the upper and lower riparians is absent. The ineffective transportation system reduces trade opportunities, prevents the upper Nile countries from enjoying the benefits of globalization, and slows down regional and Nile Basin integration. 231

47 New investments in infrastructure for bulk cargo transport are justified by good prospects in terms of mineral resources and agricultural potential, combined with population growth and general economic development. Sections of the Nile river system are navigable and can serve as key links in the regional bulk cargo transport network. Inland navigation is cost effective for medium and longer distances, while less polluting than road transport. The section of the White Nile between Kosti and Juba the Southern Reach is navigable and could be used to link the Equatorial Lakes region to the lower Nile riparian countries. It has the potential to facilitate trade in agricultural produce between potential surplus countries such as South Sudan and Uganda and net food importers such as Egypt. Lake Victoria is equally important in the regional transport network, and provides a critical connection between the Northern Corridor (Kigali Kampala Mombasa) and the Central Corridor (Dar es Salaam Tabora Mwanza). Improving navigation on Lake Victoria also has the potential to strengthen economic integration amongst the lake basin countries. Tug boat and barges leave the quayside on a sugarcane processing plant situated on the Nile, Egypt. Nile navigation is currently limited, and mostly occurs on the Nile in Egypt and between Aswan and Wadi Halfa on Lake Nasser/ Nubia. Shipping capacity on the Southern Reach is increasing but remains low. Lake Victoria wagon ferries are currently grounded because of maintenance and insurance issues. A number of operational constraints which include weak regulatory capacity, absence of navigation aids, inadequate inland port infrastructure, lack of fleet, and outdated hydrographs and navigation charts hinder expansion of the inland navigation sector and realization of the full potential of navigation in promoting regional integration and economic growth. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: NOW AND IN THE FUTURE One of the distinguishing features of the Nile Basin is the spatial diversity and high temporal variability of its climate. Traditional livelihood systems were well adapted to the weather uncertainties, but changing lifestyles combined with a rapidly growing population have largely eliminated this ability. The high temporal variability of rainfall has a marked adverse impact on the productivity of rainfed agriculture, even in areas with significant average annual rainfall in the agricultural zones. 232 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

48 the STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 Rural populations dominate in all countries, and constitute more than 75 per cent of the population in six riparians. The dominant rural population will persist in 2030 and even Most of these people depend on finite land and water resources for their livelihood and food security. Widespread poverty means that the rural population and urban poor cannot afford food imports and are reliant on local produce. These people are highly vulnerable to weather uncertainties and thus to climate change. Rising temperatures which are predicted to occur by all GCM runs will raise agricultural water demand, increase irrigation requirements, lead to higher reservoir losses, increase drought risks, and accelerate land degradation. It is also widely assumed that extreme events will become more frequent. These factors will negatively impact the output of rainfed agriculture that is practised on 87 per cent of the cultivated land in the basin, while reducing the overall irrigation potential. Even if rainfall were to increase which is still highly uncertain it is doubtful that this will translate into higher rainfed yields in the current socio-economic setting because of the many constraining factors in the agricultural production system, of which occasional moisture deficit is just one. Nile flows are very sensitive to changing rainfall patterns. Some GCM runs indicate higher precipitation in East Africa and the Ethiopian Highlands, which would lead to higher runoff. This signal, however, is still highly uncertain, and whether runoff volumes of the Nile and its tributaries will increase or decrease cannot yet be established. Obviously, higher flows will boost hydropower and irrigation potential, while the opposite will occur if runoff declines. Each subbasin will respond differently to a changing climate as a function of its distinct hydrographic, vegetation, and climatic parameters. Small-scale irrigation in Tanzania. Climate change is also expected to increase flood risks in the basin s densely populated flood plains, threaten the productive Nile Delta through sea-level rise, and affect other sectors in the economy. It is evident that the risks associated with climate change for now outweigh possible benefits. A number of climate change adaptation plans have been developed, but seem insufficient given the scale of the threat. A complicating factor is that the direction of change of the rainfall patterns has not yet been established. Before this is known, a sensible approach is to prepare for a more variable climate than historically recorded, and to implement a number of no-regret measures that, among other advantages: strengthen the agricultural sector establish food reserves build resilience to current climate variability interconnect power systems strengthen managerial capacity increase reservoir capacity. 233

49 The current hydro-meteorological monitoring efforts in the Nile basin are insufficient. This requires strengthening in order to assist member states to establish the direction, magnitude, and impacts of hydrological changes in the basin, brought about by global climate change. RESPONDING TO CHALLENGES The major water and environmental resources of the Nile Basin traverse the international boundaries of the member states and, therefore, call for coordinated, mutually reinforcing management interventions at national and regional levels. The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) represents the most significant effort in the history of the basin to bring together the riparian states to cooperate in the management and development of the common Nile water and environmental resources for the benefit of all. The NBI has, since 2004, been coordinating a number of basin-wide actions under the Shared Vision Program (SVP), designed to build confidence and trust amongst member states, address capacity issues, and lay a foundation for greater regional cooperation. Eight projects were implemented under the Shared Vision Program, focused on confidence building and stakeholder involvement, socio-economic development and benefit sharing, efficient water use in agriculture, transboundary environmental action, water resources planning and management, and applied training. The most significant of these projects (and the only one still running) is the Water Resources Planning and Management Project, which has developed a worldclass decision-support system to facilitate knowledge-based water resources planning at basin-wide level. The Shared Vision Program has been complemented by Subsidiary Action Programs (SAPs) in the Eastern Nile and Equatorial Lakes sub-basins, which have initiated investments and concrete actions on the ground to address the environmental and socio-economic development challenges in the basin. The investment portfolio of projects prepared under the two SAPs has passed the US$2 billion mark. Financing for project preparation has largely been through grants from international development partners, supported by counterpart and in-kind contributions from NBI member states. The investment projects in the two SAPs, which are at different stages of preparation and implementation, are in the areas of agricultural irrigation and drainage, agricultural trade, power infrastructure development, regional power trade, flood warning and preparedness, integrated sub-basin management, and watershed restoration. A number of projects, such as the Power Interconnection Project between Ethiopia and The Sudan, have been completed. While many of the NBI projects, especially those at basin-wide level, have been successfully completed and closed, their impacts have not been felt strongly across the basin due to the magnitude of the Climate change adaptation measures targeting rural areas are similar to ongoing rural development 234 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

50 the STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 problems being addressed. An upscaling of effort is needed to bring about noticeable and lasting change. In this regard, the NBI has prepared a new Strategic Action Program for the period that aims to consolidate the gains of the past years, move the present investment projects from preparation to implementation, and deepening cooperation and joint actions in an environment of trust. Within the basin there are other regional bodies whose interventions complement those of the NBI. These include the East African Community and its special institutions such as the Lake Victoria Basin Commission; and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. ENHANCING THE RESPONSE Given the multiple and complex development and environmental challenges facing the riparian communities of the Nile Basin, many interventions are required to be taken concurrently at the various levels of governance, from regional, through national and provincial/district, to local community levels. The most critical of the interventions include: pursuing no-regret measures to mitigate impacts of climate change increasing the level of virtual water and intra-basin trade in agricultural products slowing down and reversing environmental degradation, especially soil loss from the Ethiopian Highlands increasing hydropower production and regional power trade. As well as the measures above, it is of equal importance to strengthen and sustain institutional frameworks for regional integration (such as the EAC and IGAD), and for coordination of interventions at sub-basin and basin-wide levels (the NBI and its Subsidiary Action Programs SAPs). Visitors from upstream countries in discussion with local Egyptian famers during a study tour in 2009 organized by the Applied Training Project. Some members of Nile-COM (with raised hands) at the 2012 Regional Nile Day Celebrations in Jinja, Uganda. Cooperation amongst Nile riparians is essential to optimize benefits from the shared Nile water resources. 235

51 WATER HOTSPOTS AND HOPESPOTS Integral to the analysis of prevailing conditions in the basin is the identification of water hotspots and water hopespots. A water hotspot is an area within the basin where there is high pressure on water and environmental resources, resulting in acute water stress, destruction of aquatic biodiversity, or serious water pollution. A water hopespot is an area where innovative or remarkable steps are being taken to address the environmental and socio-economic challenges, or where significant opportunities or conducive conditions exist for addressing the challenges. The key water hotspots and hopespots in the Nile Basin that emerge from the previous chapters are summarized below. THEmATIc AREA Water resources & climate Water quality Environment HOTSpOTS The drylands on the margins of the Sahara in The Sudan, which have water scarcity, suffer from frequent droughts, encroaching desert and escalating conflicts over water, pasture, and other environmental resources The Nile valley in Egypt another water stressed area is very densely populated, has a rising water demand, and is heavily dependent on finite water generated in headwater lands. The Nile Delta in Egypt, which is eroding and sinking, and is vulnerable to sea-level rise. The major cities in the Basin (Addis Ababa, Bukoba, Cairo, Entebbe, Jinja, Juba, Kampala, Khartoum, Kigali, Kisumu, Musoma, Mwanza, Nile Delta, Wad Medani) where there is water pollution from domestic and industrial effluents and solid wastes. The Ethiopian Highlands and Nile Equatorial Lakes region, where there is increasing deforestation, wetlands drainage, serious soil erosion, and destruction of water towers such as the Mau Forests ecosystem, Mt. Elgon forests, Virunga volcanoes ecosystems, Mt. Rwenzori forests, and Ethiopian montane ecosystems. HopESpOTS The Ethiopian Highlands where there are proposals to construct high-altitude reservoirs with potential to reduce evaporative losses and minimize flooding in downstream areas. These projects can only be true Nile hopespots if cooperatively implemented with other riparians, and if mechanisms can be established to share costs and benefits. The reservoirs on the Nile have a potential to become a hopespot if their operations can be coordinated (through tools such as the Nile-DSS) to maximize system-wide energy, irrigation, and flood control benefits; this too will require a high level of cooperation and clear mechanisms for cost and benefit sharing. The Nile Valley in Egypt, where regulatory efforts have halted the escalation of water pollution. Rwanda, where there has been a marked increase in national tree cover. Ethiopia, where there is an increase in use of traditional water and soil conservation technologies and increasing efforts to restore degraded lands. Kenya, where considerable efforts are being made to reverse the destruction of the Mau Forests Complex. 236 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

52 the STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012 Irrigated fields on the Kenana Estate, The Sudan. THEmATIc AREA Demography Agriculture & nutrition Hydropower Transport HOTSpOTS Rwanda, Burundi, the areas around Lake Victoria, and the Ethiopian Highlands, where there are high population densities giving rise to unprecedented pressure on water and environmental resources. Burundi, DR Congo, and Eritrea, where over 60% of the population is undernourished. Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, where there is very low per capita electricity consumption and low rural electrification. Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda, where cost of transportation is very high. HopESpOTS Egypt, Kenya, and Rwanda, where efforts to control population growth have produced significant reductions in fertility rate. Egypt, where there is very high agricultural productivity, efficient water use for agriculture, and externalization of water demand through food importation. The Gezira and other public irrigation schemes in The Sudan that have full water control and good soils, and the potential to substantially increase agricultural production; efforts are ongoing to increase water-use efficiency and agricultural production in these schemes. South Sudan and Uganda, where there is potential to produce food surpluses that could be sold in other parts of the region. DR Congo and Ethiopia, where there is huge potential for hydroelectric power generation from the Nile and other African rivers. Considerable hydropower potential along the Victoria Nile in Uganda, and White Nile in South Sudan. Self-financing by Ethiopia of major hydropower dams, which reveals potential for raising substantial financing from domestic sources for infrastructure projects. Aswan to Delta in Egypt, where inland transport is well developed; Juba to Kosti, which has a potential to link the Nile Equatorial Lakes region to the rest of the basin. The new Lamu Juba transport corridor, which has the potential to reduce transportation costs in the region. The revival of inland transport on Lake Victoria, which has the potential to link the main transport corridors in the Equatorial Lakes region. 237

53 238 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

54 Annexes Indicators and Sources

55 ANNEX 1: RivER Nile State of BASin indicators 2012 WATER RESOURCES Mean precipitation for Nile Basin 1,046 mm/year GIS/CRU Database Mean annual flow of Main Nile (at Aswan) 84 billion cubic metres/year JMP Scoping Study Report Resources Withdrawals Storage Total internal renewable (billion m 3 /yr) 2009 Total (billion m 3 /yr) latest As % of total actual renewable latest As % of total withdrawal in Nile region latest Agricultural as % of total withdrawal latest Dam capacity, m 3 per person latest available 2012 Burundi % 0.2% 77.1% no data DR Congo % 0.5% 17.7% 1 Egypt ,794.4% 56.5% 86.4% 2,073 Eritrea % 0.5% 94.5% 8 Ethiopia % 4.6% 93.6% 67 Kenya % 2.3% 79.2% 611 Rwanda % 0.1% 68.0% no data South Sudan* Sudan** % 30.7% 97.1% 200 Tanzania % 4.3% 89.4% 2,324 Uganda % 0.3% 37.8% 2,393 Source FAO AQUASTAT 2012 Computed from AQUASTAT 2012 FAO AQUASTAT 2012 POPULAtioN of THE BASIN Population 2012 % of population living in Nile Basin 2012 % of country population living in rural areas Burundi 8,749, % 89% DR Congo 69,575, % 66% Egypt 83,958, % 57% Eritrea 5,580, % 79% Ethiopia 86,538, % 83% Kenya 42,749, % 76% Rwanda 11,271, % 81% South Sudan 9,614, % 82% Sudan, The 36,107, % 67% Tanzania 47,656, % 73% Uganda 35,620, % 84% Source World Population Prospects, 2010 From combining Landscan 2009 and World Population Prospects, 2010 World Urbanization Prospects 2011 *No data are available yet for South Sudan. ** Data relate to the state prior to 9 July 2011, except for final column. 240 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

56 IndicATORS ANd SourcES AGRicUltURAL LAND USE Cultivated area as % of total country area 2009 * Few data are yet available for South Sudan. **Data relate to the country prior to 9 July Irrigated land in Nile Basin area (ha) 2009 Irrigated land in entire country (ha) 2009 Change in forest area Burundi 44.9% 14,625 90, % DR Congo 3.2% 3.5% Egypt 3.7% 2,963,581 5,419, % Eritrea 5.9% Ethiopia 13.6% 90, ,000 Kenya 10.4% 34,156 77, % Rwanda 60.0% 17,638 1,697, % South Sudan* Sudan** 8.1% 1,749, , % Tanzania 12.1% 110,544 4, % Uganda 36.6% 25,131 9, % Source FAO AQUASTAT, 2012 EWUAP, 2009 FAO AQUASTAT, 2012 ENviRONMENTAL RESOURCES Land-use type Area km Area km Percentage cover 2009 Human Development Report, 2011 Percentage change FOOD SECURitY Dietary energy supply Kcal per person per day Shrubland and woodlands 1,173,669 1,185, % 1.0% Bare soils 965, , % 1.4% Agricultural land 327, , % 12.3% Grasslands 342, , % 4.7% Forests 266, , % 17.9% Water bodies 95,992 94, % 1.3% Cities 4,882 4, % 10.1% Undernourished As % of total population Cereal trade balance Export import 1,000 tonnes Intra-basin trade in agricultural and processed food products Imports 2009 million US$ Exports 2009 million US$ Fertilizer Kg used per hectare of arable land 2005 Cereal yield Tons per hectare 2009 Burundi 1,680 62% DR Congo 1,590 69% Egypt 3,160 <5% 9, Eritrea 1,590 64% Ethiopia 1,950 41% 1, Kenya 2,060 31% 1, Rwanda 2,050 34% South Sudan* 1,890 47% Sudan** 2,270 22% 1, Tanzania 2,020 34% Uganda 2,250 21% Source FAOSTAT 2011 FAOSTAT 2011 FAOSTAT 2011 FAOSTAT 2011 World Bank African Development Indicators 241

57 Socio-EcoNOMic conditions Gross National Income (GNI) Per capita 2011 PPP$ Living in poverty Percentage on less than PPP $1.25 a day Human Development Index Score 2011 Labour force participation Employed men as a % of working age male population Employed women as a % of working age female population Burundi % % 91% DR Congo % % 57% Egypt 5,269 <2.0% % 22% Eritrea % 63% Ethiopia % % 81% Kenya 1, % % 76% Rwanda 1, % % 87% South Sudan* 51.0% Sudan** 1, % 31% Tanzania 1, % % 86% Uganda 1, % % 78% Source Human Development Report 2011 * Few data are yet available for South Sudan. **Data relate to the country prior to 9 July Access to clean water Access to improved sanitation Under-five mortality Percentage of rural population 2008 Percentage of urban population 2008 Percentage of rural population 2008 Percentage of urban population 2008 Per 1,000 live births Burundi 71% 83% 46% 49% 164 DR Congo 28% 80% 23% 23% 192 Egypt 98% 100% 92% 97% 30 Eritrea 57% 74% 4% 52% 72 Ethiopia 26% 98% 8% 29% 113 Kenya 52% 83% 32% 27% 101 Rwanda 62% 77% 55% 50% 128 South Sudan 53% 67% 14% 54% 135 Sudan** 64% 52% 18% 55% 101 Tanzania 80% 45% 21% 32% 98 Uganda 91% 64% 49% 38% 126 World Population Prospects Source WHO/UNICEF 2010 WHO/UNICEF Revision; Statistical Yearbook of Southern Sudan STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012

58 IndicATORS ANd SourcES ENERGY SUPPLY Percentage of rural population with access 2010 *Few data are yet available for South Sudan. Electricity Hydropower Power trade Percentage of MW MW Power imports as % of urban population potential installed total annual consumption with access Power exports as % of total annual consumption 2010 Burundi 3% 26% % 0.0% DR Congo 0% 45% % 9.8% Egypt 99% 100% 40 2, % 0.8% Eritrea 3% 57% 0.0% 0.0% Ethiopia 2% 86% 13, % 0.0% Kenya 12% 51% % 0.4% Rwanda 2% 12% % 0.0% South Sudan* 1% 17% 2,570 Sudan, The 7% 60% 3,280 1, % 0.0% Tanzania 2% 40% % 0.0% Uganda 6% 40% 4, % 1.0% Source TRANSPORT CBWS 2011 Section 5 CBWS 2011 Section 5 CBWS 2011 Section 4 CBWS 2010 Appendix 5 Roads Airports Inland waterways Total (km) Paved (km) Unpaved (km) Density (km/100 km 2 ) Total number Number paved Number unpaved Number of ports 12,322 1,200 11, DR Congo 153,497 2, , Egypt 65,050 47,500 17, Eritrea 4, , Ethiopia 36,469 6,980 29, Kenya 160,866 11, , Rwanda 12,000 1,000 11, South Sudan 7, , Sudan, The 11,900 4,320 7, Tanzania 86,472 7,092 79, Uganda 81,329 3,600 77, Source The World Factbook MONitoRING Hydrometric stations Historic number, 1970s Currently operational, 2011 Burundi DR Congo Egypt Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan* Sudan Tanzania Uganda Source WRPM 2011 and National DSS Specialists 243

59 ANNEX 2: PropoSEd additional state of BASin indicators for future REPortiNG WATER QUAlitY Annual water quality conditions Colour (min/max/average) Electrical conductivity (min/max/average) Dissolved oxygen (min/max/average) Faecal coliform (min/max/average) At following locations: White Nile at Jinja Blue Nile at Wad Medani Main Nile at Khartoum Main Nile at Cairo ENviRONMENT Annual sediment load in the Nile at Dongola Environmental performance index, by country TRANSPORT Annual volume of goods transported on inland waterways (tons) Cairo to Aswan Khartoum to Juba Lake Victoria CLIMATE CHANGE Floods and droughts Number of people affected Number of floods Number of droughts 244 STATE OF THE RIVER NILE BASIN 2012