Investment Philosophy & Current Views

Transcription

1 Investment Philosophy & Current Views Miguel Corte-Real Product Director Equity March 2009 Dieses Dokument ist nur professionelle Investoren und nicht für Privatanleger bestimmt.

2 Agenda Global Research Resources & Process Equity & Fixed Income Our Views & portfolio positioning within Equities 2

3 Global Research Resources FMR Co & Pyramis Fidelity International (FIL) Pan Europe 69 Portfolio Managers 95 Research Professionals Americas (Boston) 149 Portfolio Managers 353 Research Professionals Team France 3 Portfolio Managers 2 Research Professional Team Italy 1 Portfolio Manager Team Germany 3 Portfolio Managers 1 Research Professional Team Korea 2 Portfolio Managers 3 Research Professionals Japan 17 Portfolio Managers 35 Research Professionals Local market coverage Proprietary research Analysts manage industry / country funds Main investment offices in London, Tokyo, Hong Kong & Boston with sub-investment offices in Paris, Frankfurt, Milan, Mumbai, Seoul, Singapore & Sydney Team India 3 Portfolio Managers 7 Research Professionals Team Singapore 4 Portfolio Managers 3 Research Professionals Pacific ex Japan 24 Portfolio Managers 37 Research Professionals Team Australia 2 Portfolio Managers 5 Research Professionals NB: Teams France, Germany and Italy are constituents of the Pan total. Teams India, Korea, Singapore & Australia are constituents of the Pacific ex Japan total. These figures reflect the resources of FMR LLC, a U.S. company, and its subsidiaries, and the resources of FIL Limited, a non-u.s. company and affiliate, and its subsidiaries. Includes Equity, Bonds, Real Estate, Multimanager, Quants, Derivatives and Technical analysts. Source: FMR LLC, Pyramis Global Advisors, FIL Limited, as of 31 December Data is unaudited. Research Professionals include both analysts and associates. 3

4 The importance of strong research Total analysts: 57 Total DoR: 5 Director of Research Financials Team Leader Consumer Team Leader Natural resources & utilities Team Leader Healthcare Team Leader Industrials Team Leader TMT Team Leader Typical stock number 13 Large Cap analysts 8-17 Director of Research Director of Research Director of Research 31 Mid Cap analysts 5 Emerging analysts 5 Small cap analysts + 1 Country analyst 10 analysts 9 analysts 9 analysts 3 analysts 14 analysts 8 analysts >200 Note: Number of analysts in the team at any time may be more or less than number of positions. One Emerging analyst covers industrials and resources. There are 2 additional analysts based in London that cover LatAm. Source: FIL Limited,

5 The Equity research process Industry analysis Ideas communicated to/ debated with PMs via: Company positioning within industry Management meetings/ evaluation Financial modeling Valuation work Risk assessment Stock ratings (5 levels, strong buy to strong sell) Written reports One-on-one discussions Group discussions Voic s s Fidelity intranet Overall aim helping funds to outperform 5

6 Going the extra mile with our research Number of companies 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Over 3,100 company meetings attended in-house Outside Fidelity offices At Fidelity offices Global context Capital markets Third party & bespoke research Company X Proprietary research Customers Suppliers Bi-directional research conclusions More than 8,000 research notes published Increasingly important to identify the sells as well as the buys Corporate governance Competitors 6

7 Depth of research The 360 view Chinese steel company meetings and site visits Chinese construction and financial company meetings Japanese steel company meetings Korean shipping company meetings and site visits Asian oil analyst Asian mining analyst Australian management meetings (1:1) UK management meetings (1:1) Australian site visits International site visits North American mining analyst Latin American mining analyst mining analyst oil analyst North American oil analyst Joining the dots Along value chains Within industry teams Across industry teams Across regions 7

9 How we combine equity and debt analysis EQUITY Organic growth DEBT Can they pay us back? Growth Story Offensive Earnings growth Free-Cash-Flow Reinvestment Balance Sheet Dividend Management Access Fundamental Company Analysis Debt / Equity Meetings Bottom-up Approach Avoid Downside Defensive Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Focus Payback Quant Overlay Funding Capex, Working Capital Finance Growth Higher Earnings Higher Price and Higher Chance for Payback 9

10 Investment philosophy If I look at TEN companies, I ll find ONE I like... If I look at ONE HUNDRED, I ll find TEN... Whoever turns over the most stones wins the game. Peter Lynch, Fidelity Investments 10

12 Coming out of a recession Are we seeing signs of a possible H recovery? GDP forecast to recover in H Collapse in oil prices Unprecedented monetary loosening Major rundown in inventories Equity markets are most undervalued in last two decades and have managed to brush off bad news Possible signs of a corporate bond bubble 12

13 GDP forecast to recover in H while oil prices have collapsed in 2008 Actual and forecasted GDP data for EMU area Crude oil, WTI Index Real GDP (%) Actual Historical Median Forecast High Forecast Low Forecast USD/barrel % Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 We could see a return to economic growth by the end of the year Source: Bloomberg, consensus forecasts, as at 23/02/09 The oil price decrease has eased the pressure on inflation Source: Bloomberg, as at 23/02/09. WTI = West Texas Intermediate 13

14 Unprecedented monetary loosening and a major rundown on inventories Official Policy Interest Rate Changes Freight, Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI), USD 7 6 US ECB Japan UK Fed starts to cut rates in Sept BDI is down -93% from its May highs Interest rate (%) On average there is an 18 months lag between cost of money falling and a bounce in economic activity a bounce in Spring 2009? Source: Bloomberg, January Inventories have come back down to historical levels Source: Bloomberg, as at 31/01/09 14

15 Over the last 20 years we have not seen such undervalued equity markets Price-to-Earnings Price-to-Book Europe Market Trailing PE market is at its cheapest level for 20 years on a PE basis Average Market Price-to-Book Average market is also cheap on a Price-to-Book basis How about relative to other markets? Source: Datastream / IBES, 20/02/1989 to 20/02/2009 Source: Datastream / IBES, 20/02/1989 to 20/01/

16 Global markets are becoming cheaper by the month Trailing P/E Ratio (vs. Peak) Trailing EPS Growth (YoY) China % India % Hong Kong % BRIC % Indonesia EM Far East Japan Canada EM (Emerging Markets) Australia USA EM Latin America P/E at peak Trl P/E Ratio -8.4% -1.4% -8.8% -26.3% -23.2% -16.4% +5.1% +1.3% Europe P/E has dropped from 14.1x to 8x. China s P/E has dropped from 32x to 10.3x. Mexico % MSCI AC World % Brazil % MSCI AC World ex USA % EM EMEA % EM Eastern Europe % AC Europe % Russia % Source: MSCI, Factset. Monthly data as of December % -20.0% +0.0% +20.0% +40.0% 16

17 Agenda Investment philosophy at Fidelity Current views Portfolio Manager positioning 17

18 How our portfolio managers are positioned HEALTHCARE MATERIALS Euro Blue Chip Growth Aggressive Dynamic Growth Fidelity Europe Euro Blue Chip Growth Aggressive Dynamic Growth Fidelity Europe Fidelity Europe CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Euro Blue Chip Growth Aggressive Dynamic Growth FINANCIALS 31/12/ /01/2009 Euro Blue Chip Growth Aggressive Dynamic Growth Fidelity Europe

19 Conclusion Equity markets are in a bottoming process Economic slowdown is unavoidable Risk is unexpected slowdown from China Rules of the game are changing Parts of the financial industry will face increasing regulation Stock picking challenge: in three years time, which stocks will we look at and wonder how did they get so cheap Dislocation in financial markets Opportunities to play across the capital structure 19

20 Disclaimer Dieses Dokument ist nur für professionelle Investoren und darf ohne vorherige Erlaubnis weder reproduziert noch veröffentlicht werden und ist nicht für Privatanleger bestimmt. Alle geäusserten Meinungen sind, falls keine anderen Quellen genannt werden, die von Fidelity. Quellen: Datastream / IBES, Bloomberg, MSCI Factset und Fidelity. Fidelity, Fidelity International/FIL und das Pyramiden-Logo sind Warenzeichen von Fidelity International Limited (FIL). Zusätzlich hat FIL Zugriff auf Ressourcen von FMR, unserer Schwestergesellschaft in den USA. FMR Corp., gegründet in den USA, ist eine Schwestergesellschaft von Fidelity International Limited (FIL). FIL steht für Fidelity International Limited (FIL), gegründet in Bermuda, und ihre jeweiligen Tochtergesellschaften. Eine Anlageentscheidung sollte in jedem Fall auf Grundlage der Prospekte, des letzten Geschäftsberichtes und - sofern nachfolgend veröffentlicht - des jüngsten Halbjahresberichtes getroffen werden. Diese Unterlagen sind die allein verbindliche Grundlage des Kaufes. Fidelity veröffentlicht ausschließlich produktbezogene Informationen und erteilt keine Anlageempfehlung. Die Prospekte, den Geschäftsbericht und den Halbjahresbericht erhalten Sie kostenlos bei bei der Servicestelle FIL Investment Services GmbH, Kastanienhöhe 1, D Kronberg im Taunus, Deutschland sowie bei der österreichischen Zahlstelle Bank Austria Creditanstalt AG, Vordere Zollamtstrasse 13, A-1030 Wien oder über Herausgeber: FIL Investments International Zweigniederlassung Wien, Schottenring 16 A, 1010 Wien. Februar MKAT