Joseph Lai, CFA Chief Investment Officer Noesis Capital Management
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1 Joseph Lai, CFA Chief Investment Officer Noesis Capital Management
2 Demographics
3 World Population 2.5% 12, % 10,000 8, % 1.0% 6,000 4,000 Millions 0.5% 2, % Source: United Nations World Total Population Annualized Growth Rate Noesis Capital Management Corp. 3
4 Fertility (Children per Woman) Source: United Nations BRICS G7 WORLD Sub-Saharan Africa Noesis Capital Management Corp. 4
5 Life Expectancy (Years) Source: United Nations BRICS G7 WORLD Sub-Saharan Africa Noesis Capital Management Corp. 5
6 Median Age of Population Source: United Nations BRICS G7 WORLD Sub-Saharan Africa Noesis Capital Management Corp. 6
7 Growth of World s Age Groups (2010=100) Source: United Nations Noesis Capital Management Corp. 7
8 Aging Dependency Ratio G7 (age 65+)/(working age 15-64) Percent Source: United Nations France Germany Japan U.K. U.S. Italy Canada Noesis Capital Management Corp. 8
9 Aging Dependency Ratio - BRICS (age 65+)/(working age 15-64) Percent Source: United Nations Brazil Russia India China South Africa Noesis Capital Management Corp. 9
10 Struggling Working-Age Population 40% 14% 35% 12% 30% 10% 25% 8% 20% 6% 15% 4% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% -2% Source: United Nations Aging Dependence Ratio % Change in Working Age Population Noesis Capital Management Corp. 10
11 Net Migration Ratio Source: United Nations BRICS G7 Sub-Saharan Africa Noesis Capital Management Corp. 11
12 % of Population Residing in Urban Areas percent Source: United Nations BRICS G7 World Sub-Saharan Africa Noesis Capital Management Corp. 12
13 Economic/Financial Impacts
14 GDP Decomposition GGG = GDP Hour worked Hours worked worker (# of workers) GGG = productivity labor utilization (working age population) Labor utilization change is small(-0.1%) and unlikely to change Working-age population change is almost one percentage point lower (0.3% vs. 1.2%) GDP growth would slow down to below 2% from 2.8% for the past three decades, if other factors remain constant. Productivity becomes the critical factor in sustaining GDP growth. Noesis Capital Management Corp. 14
15 Life Cycle Hypothesis Young age: housing Middle age: investment for retirement Retirement: move from higher-risk assets to lowerrisk assets with a focus on capital preservation and flow of income Noesis Capital Management Corp. 15
16 Research Examples Some studies attribute the sustained asset market booms in the 1980s and 1990s to the fact that baby boomers were entering middle age (Bakshi and Chen, 1994). One study suggests that stock market outflows are positively correlated with the fraction of people aged 65+ and negatively correlated with the fraction of people aged (Goyal, 2004). Noesis Capital Management Corp. 16
17 P/E vs. (age 40-49)/(age 60-69) Source: Liu and Spiegel, 2011 Noesis Capital Management Corp. 17
18 P/E vs. (age 40-49)/(age 60-69) Source: Liu and Spiegel, 2011 Noesis Capital Management Corp. 18
19 Upside Risks Longer life expectancy may lead retirees to hold equities as an income source and to leave to their heirs. Financial assets are mostly owned by high-net-worth households that don t need to sell these assets to fund their retirement. As investment has gradually become more globalized, the correlation between a particular country s demographics and its asset valuations will become weaker. A younger and growing middle class in emerging markets can buy the financial assets of developed markets. Noesis Capital Management Corp. 19
20 Important Notes Remember that these are long term trends and population profiles change very slowly. We do have tools that can be utilized to respond to these headwinds. Noesis Capital Management Corp. 20
21 Investment
22 Retirees Real Estate Pharmaceuticals and Medical Technology Leisure Financial Services Technology & Automation Emerging Markets Natural Resources Investment Opportunities related to Demographics Noesis Capital Management Corp. 22
23 Asset Classes Cash Bonds Equities Alternatives Private Equity Real Estate Hedge Funds Commodities Forests/Timber Financial Derivatives Noesis Capital Management Corp. 23
24 Long-Term Growth Trends Years Real GDP Inflation Nominal GDP SP % 2.3% 3.9% 4.9% % 2.1% 4.6% 6.1% % 2.5% 5.4% 8.0% % 3.8% 6.5% 6.4% % 3.8% 6.8% 6.4% % 3.4% 6.5% 6.9% % 3.7% 6.7% 7.4% % 3.5% 7.2% 6.9% Noesis Capital Management Corp. 24
25 Assumptions for Planning (US Equity) Real GDP growth = 2%- Inflation = 2%- Nominal GDP growth = 4%- S&P 500 Index growth = 4%- S&P 500 Index dividend yield = 2%+ Total return = 6% Noesis Capital Management Corp. 25
26 Assumptions for Planning (EM Equity) Real GDP growth = 6% Inflation = 4%+ Nominal GDP growth = 10%+ Equity growth = 10%+ Dividend yield = minimal Total return = 10%+ Noesis Capital Management Corp. 26
27 Fixed Income Market cap of the European equity market at the peak of 2000 equaled that of outstanding debt securities. That has shifted, and the European equity market today represents only one-third the size of the debt market. In Japan, the most aged country on average, mutual funds have been increasingly invested in foreign bonds, from 4% in 2000 to 24% in 2011 (Alsfor, Hamilton, Sharma, Secker, 2013) Noesis Capital Management Corp. 27
28 10-Year Treasury Percent Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Noesis Capital Management Corp. 28
29 Real Yield on 10-Year Treasury 10 6 Percent Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Noesis Capital Management Corp. 29
30 In a low-growth, low-inflation environment, yields may stay at low levels. Real rate = 2%- vs. 2-3% historically Inflation = 2%- Yield = 3% Assumptions for Planning (Fixed Income) Noesis Capital Management Corp. 30
31 Cash 0% Bonds 3% Equities Assumption for Planning (Asset Classes) Developed economies 6% Emerging markets 10% Alternatives 10% Noesis Capital Management Corp. 31
32 THANK YOU! 謝 謝! BEDANKT! DANKE! ありがとう Noesis Capital Management Corp N. Military Trail, Suite 210, Boca Raton, FL Tel Fax
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