Assessment of spectrum needs in France by 2020

Transcription

1 Assessment f spectrum needs in France by 2020 DGMIC, DGCIS Réf : AF-DGCIS-DGMIC-Besins en fréquences 2020 TERA Cnsultants 32, rue des Jeûneurs PARIS Tél (0) Fax. +33 (0) S.A.S. au capital de RCS Paris B September 2011

2 Assessment f spectrum needs in France by 2020 Réf : AF-DGCIS-DGMIC-Besins en fréquences

3 Assessment f spectrum needs in France by 2020 SYNTHESIS Whether related t audi-visual, telecmmunicatins r emergency and safety services, cnsumptin habits in France have undergne prfund changes, driven by the rapid pace f technlgical prgress. In the audi-visual field, the service is changing under the impact f digital technlgy, bth in terms f the increasing number f channels (made pssible by the transitin t Digital Terrestrial Televisin (DTT)) as well as the wealth f cntent (High Definitin televisin - r HD TV, Ultra HD TV, 3D services, etc.) r the different types f services (n-line r n-demand services, interactive services, mbile services...). There is als the end f the hegemny f terrestrial bradcasting, with a steady increase in the cnsumptin f audi-visual services thrugh new platfrms, and particularly strng grwth in televisins cnnected t a bradband r superfast bradband platfrm. The develpment f fibre netwrk shuld further increase the penetratin rate f IP televisin amng French husehlds. Hwever, it des nt seem pssible that alternative mdes f receptin can marginalise DTT by 2020, given that the cst f migratin t anther technlgy appears prhibitive. Thus, DTT in this cntext will remain an essential platfrm fr televisin bradcasting. Furthermre, the radi will nt escape the natural evlutin f cntent digitisatin. By 2020, this wave culd see the start f Digital Terrestrial Radi (DTR). Thus, althugh the existence f a viable technical and ecnmic mdel fr the DTR is still under investigatin in France, additinal capacity f spectrum frequency shuld be put aside fr the pssibility f such migratin. Indeed, its implementatin requires a lng perid f simulcast f prgrams n analgue and digital netwrks. In the field f mbile radi cmmunicatins, the past tw years have witnessed a cnsiderable grwth in data traffic, especially with the increasing ppularity f smartphnes. This grwth will accelerate in the cming years with their widespread use and the rise f smart devices and terminals dedicated t Internet use, such as tuchpads. Like the transfrmatin experienced by fixed netwrks a decade ag, mbile netwrks have in turn seen the rapid develpment f the uses f mbile data and multimedia (web, music, vides) and the emergence f new services available n the mve (mbile payments, ge-lcatin, nline games, scial netwrks, clud cmputing). In additin, the French Natinal NGA Prgramme (Prgramme Natinal Très Haut Débit), which went public in June 2010, is itself part f a gal f deplying high-speed netwrks in France t cver 70% f the ppulatin by 2020 and 100 % by Mbile netwrks shuld cntribute t the high-speed netwrk cverage in France, especially in rural areas. The emergency and security netwrks, traditinally reserved fr use by vice and shrt messages n lw-speed netwrk, are nw facing a grwing demand fr s-called bradband services, which are highly capacity-cnsuming (e.g. the recnstructin f a prfessinal wrking envirnment in vehicles r the uplading f field data in real time). Réf : AF-DGCIS-DGMIC-Besins en fréquences

4 Assessment f spectrum needs in France by 2020 Fr all the services analysed, the explsin f new uses is nw real and measurable. Hwever the expected level f cnsumptin in the next decade is the subject f a number f uncertainties. In ttal, tw key scenaris fr audi-visual uses, three fr electrnic cmmunicatins and tw fr the emergency and security services are cnsidered in 2020 hrizn t describe the range f pssibilities. Key scenaris fr audi-visual uses: The scenaris fr audi-visual uses are fcused n the evlutin f DTT service, since spectrum needs depend much less n the demand related t the take-ff f persnal mbile televisin (PMT) and DTR. These scenaris are based n the increasing ppularity f HD TV and the ability f a multiplex t accmmdate six HD channels by 2020, thrugh the cupling f the DVB- T2 bradcasting standard with tw pssible changes f cmpressin standard: ptimizatin f the MPEG-4 cding r the migratin twards HEVC. They als assume a relatively stable market in televisin advertising, and cnsider that the emerging uses such as n-demand audi-visual media service, 3D, internet-cnnected TV, are nt spectrum-cnsuming if accmpanied by a mre flexible management f spectrum within each multiplex. Migratin f DTT t all HD service Spectrum requirements fr migratin f current DTT (30 channels) t all-hd using applicable technlgies in husehlds in 2020 amunt t abut 245 MHz (75 MHz fewer than the currently allcated resurce). In case f favurable crss-brder negtiatins, this need culd fall t abut 170 MHz (150 MHz fewer than presently allcated). Hwever it seems difficult t achieve the bjectives f these crss-brder negtiatins by Migratin t an enriched HD DTT service The spectrum requirements in the event f migratin t an enriched HD DTT service in 2020 (which is equivalent t abut frty channels HD DTT) amunt t abut 320 MHz (all f the currently allcated resurce). Hwever, if crss-brder negtiatins are ptimised, this need culd fall t abut 245 MHz (75 MHz fewer than presently allcated). Key scenaris fr electrnic cmmunicatins uses: The key scenaris fr electrnic cmmunicatins uses are based n the deplyment f LTE mbile netwrks with a spectral efficiency f 3.3 times the spectral efficiency f 3G tday. The scenaris fresee a cntinuatin f frequency bands fr 3G but a withdrawal f 2G netwrks. Finally, all scenaris include the use f femtcells r Wi-Fi t migrate part f the mbile traffic t fixed netwrks (between 20% and 40% f traffic). Réf : AF-DGCIS-DGMIC-Besins en fréquences

5 Assessment f spectrum needs in France by 2020 As a precautin, the evaluatins are perfrmed withut taking int accunt the frequency bands abve 3 GHz because there is nt s far any equipment cmmercially available t prvide a mbile service. Cntinuity f current grwth in mbile usage If the current grwth f mbile usage is sustained ver time, spectrum requirements fr services using the frequencies f electrnic cmmunicatins are cmpatible with the resurces allcated r abut t be allcated t mbile peratrs tday. Emergence f a wireless hyper cnnectivity In the event f widespread wireless hyper cnnectivity, an additinal allcatin f 450 MHz fr the services using electrnic cmmunicatins frequencies is required. In this cntext, the mre peratrs will have frequency bands belw 1 GHz, the better the quality f service prvided t cnsumers, particularly because f the quality f indr penetratin f these frequencies. The width f additinal spectrum needed in this scenari is clse t the amunt f additinal spectrum t be allcated t electrnic cmmunicatins as part f the "Natinal Bradband Plan" intrduced in early 2011 in the United States, which plans t allcate an additinal 500 MHz t electrnic cmmunicatins by Fixed-Mbile substitutin in rural areas The use f a mbile netwrk t deliver a fixed superfast bradband access in rural areas wuld require additinal spectrum allcatin belw 1 GHz frequency t services using electrnic cmmunicatins frequencies in The additinal amunt needed ranges frm 100 MHz, if the already allcated frequencies are used fr superfast bradband access service, up t 200 MHz if the frequencies fr the superfast bradband access service shuld be separated frm the frequencies allcated t mbile netwrks. Key scenaris fr emergency and safety use: Use f electrnic cmmunicatins netwrks pen t the public fr the prvisin f bradband services Emergency and security services are already using small-scale electrnic cmmunicatins netwrks pen t the public. An "industrialisatin" f such use that wuld ensure the cnfidentiality f exchanges and allw temprary pre-emptin f capacity if necessary culd be a slutin t meet the requirements withut increasing the reserved spectrum. Deplyment f wn netwrk t prvide bradband services The deplyment f a dedicated infrastructure t meet the specific frequency f emergency and security services requires an allcatin f 20 MHz in additin t the band currently used fr narrwband services. Réf : AF-DGCIS-DGMIC-Besins en fréquences