The EU Enlargement: Impact on Banking Integration Process. Alessandro Profumo CEO of UniCredit

Transcription

1 The EU Enlargement: Impact on Banking Integration Process Alessandro Profumo CEO of UniCredit Cologne, November 6, 2006

2 Agenda The European Enlargement Process The Role of Banking Systems in the EU UniCredit Strategy in the EU Enlarged Banking Market 2

3 Today the European Union is a main player in the international economic playground 2005 Data EU25 EU27 USA Japan China Surface, ths Km 2 3,974 4,323 9, ,598 Population, mln ,305 GDP, tln GDP per capita, 23,508 22,300 33,767 28,696 1,389 Source: Eurostat and World Bank data 3

4 also thanks to its successful Enlargement process that is not completed yet Countries GDP Population Abs Abs 1958 Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxemburg, Netherlands 1, Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdome % % 1981 Greece Spain, Portugal % % 1995 Austria, Finland, Sweden % % 2004 Poland, Hungary, Czech R., Latvia, Slovakia, Malta, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, Cyprus % % 2007 Romania, Bulgaria % % 4 Note: GDP is in Purchasing Power Parity bn Euro and Population in mn Source: New Europe Research Network on The Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database

5 The latest enlargement round in 2004 has set a higher degree of heterogeneity in the EU but declining in the next years GDP Per Capita Dispersion in the EU In terms of GDP per capita, the gap between EU member countries 0,4 has almost doubled with the recent enlargement 0,3 round and this dispersion 0,2 is going to grow furthermore next 1 st 0,1 January following the entry of Bulgaria and 0, Romania but is expected to decrease in the next years Note: GDP per capita dispersion is calculated dividing standard deviation of GDP per capita by the average GDP per capita in the year Source: New Europe Research Network on The Conference Board and Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Total Economy Database and World Bank 5

6 thanks to the fast growing economic rates of CEE countries Historical Real GDP Growth (CAGR ) GDP Per Capita in PPP EU-25 = 100 EU % 100 EU 25 Slovenia CEE % 90 Czech Rep. Hungary Expected Real GDP Growth (CAGR ) 70 Slovakia Poland Baltics EU % CEE % Note: CEE 12 are 10 new EU members plus Bulgaria and Romania 6 Source: internal analysis on Wiiw, Eurostat and European Commission data

7 and to a tighter correlation of their business cycles with the EU average New EU members IPI cycle vs EU15 IPI cycle 7.5% 5.0% Hungary Poland 2.5% Czech Rep Slovakia 0.0% EU 15 In a short period of time, CEE countries were able to completely restructure their production and address their exports to Western Europe, leading to a strong correlation with the EU15 business cycle -2.5% -5.0% Slovenia Privatization and FDI inflows have played a crucial role in this process Note: IPI Industrial Production Index Source: UniCredit New Europe Research Network 7

8 also supported by the perspective of Euro adoption Euro Adoption Path by the New EU Members (current scenario) The process to join the European Monetary Union started by CEE countries is a Slovenia EMU After 2012 key driver for their convergence, as it implies to keep within controlled levels: Slovakia Estonia EMU EMU Inflation rate Interest rate Fiscal balance Public debt Exchange rates Lithuania Latvia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland EMU EMU EMU EMU EMU 8 Source: UniCredit New Europe Research Network

9 Agenda The European Enlargement Process The Role of Banking Systems in the EU UniCredit Strategy in the EU Enlarged Banking Market 9

10 Banks capability to support economic growth in the CEE countries has been improving quickly since the second half of the 90s Total Loans over GDP in CEEs vs Eurozone 120% Eurozone (2005) = % 40% The low level of bank lending in transition countries can be explained by the sharp economic downturn, which resulted in GDP falling between 15-20% in the first half of the 90s 30% 20% Bank lending started to grow again as the economic situation improved and government securities interest rates decreased Source: UniCredit New Europe Research Network and UniCredit Research & Strategy analysis on ECB, Eurostat and national Central Banks data 10

11 when CEE countries began to open up their banking systems to foreign banks Banking Assets Owned by Foreign Banks in EU10 1 (%) PL HU CZ SK SI EE LV LT CY MT 70 Avg % Most of the countries which later joined the EU decided to open up their markets to foreign operators between the end of the 1990s and the early years of this decade The old members still features a very limited degree of openness of their banking industries (24% on average) Source: Team Analysis on BCE data (1) As at

12 triggering a virtuous cycle that is supporting their convergence path Economic Growth Banks performance International Banks behaviour: develop new product both in retail and in corporate segment transfer know-how (e.g. credit risk management) support infrastructure development support FDI s inflow introduce a culture based on Corporate Social Responsibility Banking system development So far a virtuous cycle which: significantly increases retail and corporate product availability and lending volumes allows a better control on NPL dynamics drives spreads contraction closer to EU levels 12

13 This has led to a relevant improvement in the banking system efficiency level Banking Spread Levels in CEE Countries vs Eurozone % Bulgaria Romania Hungary Turkey Poland Czech Rep. Slovakia Eurozone (avg 1H06) = 3.40% There is a marked convergence of banking spread levels in CEE countries to Eurozone level that can be explained by aggressive competition, particularly in the corporate segment and in the mortgage market Banks tend to refrain from passing the higher cost of funding to the client even in case of hikes in market rates, and rather rebalance their activities from lending to fee-based services Source: UniCredit New Europe Research Network and UniCredit Research & Strategy analysis on ECB, Eurostat and National Central Banks data 13

14 and to an increasing flow of Foreign Direct Investments, very important engine for growth FDI Net Inflows in the CEEs (USD mn) + 55% , ,323 FDI Net Inflows in the EU15 (USD mn) , ,606-72% As a source of growth, inward FDI can: become one of the channels to spread technology a crucial growth driver from developed to developing countries facilitate the exploitation and distribution of commodities by helping to improve transport and communication networks have a positive impact on domestic enterprises' efficiency and productivity raise the quality of domestic human capital and improve the know-how and managerial skills of local firms increase employment Note: CEEs are the new EU members (excluding Cyprus and Malta) plus Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania Source: World Bank data 14

15 Agenda The European Enlargement Process The Role of Banking Systems in the EU UniCredit Strategy in the EU Enlarged Banking Market 15

16 In this new scenario UniCredit has chosen to play as a truly European bank MAIN STRUCTURAL FIGURES 1 Employees 2 : over 134,000 Customers: over 28 million Branches 3 : over 7,000 Deposits and debt securities in issue: 475 billion Loans: 430 billion Banking operations in 20 countries 14 th bank world-wide in terms of Market Capitalization 4 (1) Data as at 30 June 2006 (2) Full time equivalent. Koç Group (including Yapi) is consolidated proportionally (3) Koç Group considered at 100% (4) Source: The Banker July Global player in Asset Management: 236 bn AuM (with coverage in 5 continents)

17 investing both in one of the wealthiest European regions and in the fastest growing area UniCredit market shares % 24.4% 20.7% 21.2% 23.4% 11.8% ~15% 11.9% 11.7% 10.5% 5.6% 7.0% Northern Italy Bavaria Austria Croatia Bulgaria Poland 2 Bosnia Turkey 3 Slovakia Czech Rep. Serbia Romania Per capita GDP (100%=EU25) Average GDP growth % 129% 123% 131% 4.0% 5.7% 4.9% 5.8% 5.5% 6.1% 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% EU12 1.7% Northern Italy Bavaria Austria Combination Croatia Bulgaria Poland Bosnia Turkey Slovakia Czech Rep. Serbia Romania 17 Source: Eurostat,CE Inforegio Report, Central Banks, National Statistical Offices and UniCredit New Europe Research Network based on the latest available information - (1) End of Market share measured in terms of customer loans (2) Including 200 branches still to be sold, according to the deal signed with the Polish Treasury Ministry (3) Including 100% of Yapi Kredi assets and branches

18 where it operates with a business model based on specialization as key success and differentiation factor to build competitive advantage Market 1 Market 2 Market 3 Market n RETAIL CORPORATE MULTI-LOCAL APPROACH Leveraging on highly recognized brands and adapting to each market s specifics PRIVATE GLOBAL PRODUCT LINES Investment Banking, Asset Management, Leasing GLOBAL BUSINESSES Centers of excellence in selected product areas that can be leveraged at pan-european level 18

19 UniCredit s commercial banking strategy is thus tailored to set specific targets in our stability area RETAIL CORPORATE PRIVATE Germany - increase sale effectiveness, focus on customer satisfaction and cross-selling, structural cost reduction Austria - turnaround of unprofitable Mass Market and Small Business segments Italy Consolidate the current successful growth Germany - grow revenues, increase market share, strict cost control and improve cost of risk Austria - consolidate N.1 position and optimize capital absorption Italy Increase market share, improve cost of risk and optimize capital absorption In the whole area improve customer base penetration and reduce costs of origin in a market that is large and attractive To become the best, recognized bank by competences, customer satisfaction and value creation 19

20 and in the fastest growing one Pillars of the CEE strategy Establishment of cross border initiatives to leverage the strong network (e.g. Cross Border Clients Group) Successfully and rapidly completing mergers in countries with multiple presence, mostly by 2007 Selective growth differentiating the strategy according to UniCredit positioning: defend/increase market share and reach operating excellence vs. reshape overall strategy 20

21 without losing sight of the new growth opportunities to successfully compete on a global scale Exploit our well-established way to be a European champion Time to market Quick Execution Strong Innovation Capabilities Merger with HVB Anticipating the European banking integration process CEE structure rationalization Kick-off of incountry mergers in countries with multiple presence mostly completed by 2007 Divisionalisation - in line with new market requirements development of tailored service model. in order to create value also growing in markets where we are not yet fully operative 21

22 The EU Enlargement: Impact on Banking Integration Process Alessandro Profumo CEO of UniCredit Cologne, November 6, 2006