ICT SERVICES FOR SMEs: WORLDWIDE TRENDS AND FORECASTS

Transcription

1 RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT ICT SERVICES FOR SMEs: WORLDWIDE TRENDS AND FORECASTS HILARY BAILEY AND SANDRA O BOYLE Analysys Mason Limited 2015 analysysmason.com

2 About this report This report analyses the demand for ICT services by small and medium-sized enterprises, expressed in terms of connections, revenue and ARPU. Results are provided for eight geographical regions, and are further split by enterprise size. The report also provides recommendations for CSPs who are involved in, or considering embracing the SME market. It is based on several sources, including: operator reported connections and revenue data Regulatory and government market sizing data the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) for socio-economic data: population, employees and GDP. WHO NEEDS TO READ THIS REPORT This report will enable communication services providers (CSPs) to identify key areas for revenue growth, both in terms of geographical markets and individual services. It is also of interest to vendors who may wish to target the SME market in particular, and to third-party service providers that may seek collaborative relations with CSPs. GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE KEY METRICS 4 Regions modelled: Western Europe (WE) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) North America (NA) Latin America (LATAM) Developed Asia Pacific (DVAP) Emerging Asia Pacific (EMAP) Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Countries modelled individually France Germany Indonesia Malaysia Spain Turkey United Kingdom USA Mobile voice and data Mobile voice Mobile messaging Mobile handset data Mobile broadband M2M Fixed voice Narrowband VoBB Fixed broadband xdsl FTTP Cable modem Ethernet Leased line Cloud services Mobile device management Unified communications Desktop management Cloud IaaS 2 Cloud SaaS 3 1 This report updates results presented in Analysys Mason s ICT services for SMEs worldwide: forecasts and analysis Infrastructure-as-a-service. 3 Software-as-a-service (Saas) 4 See taxonomy on slides 30 and 31. Analysys Mason Limited

3 Contents [1] 5. Executive summary 6. Executive summary: Worldwide SME ICT revenue will accelerate as cloud services become more widespread 7. Executive summary: Recommendations for operators to maximise SME ICT revenue 8. Worldwide trends 9. Worldwide: SME ICT services revenue worldwide will grow at a CAGR of 2.6% between 2014 and Worldwide: Mobile retail revenue will continue to grow, but there will be a strong shift from traditional services to data 11. Worldwide: Traditional fixed voice revenue will decline, with a marked transition towards IP-based telephony 12. Worldwide: Fixed broadband and video services are set to grow strongly 13. Worldwide: Cloud retail revenue will grow rapidly, although penetration will remain low 14. Regional trends 15. Regional trends: Emerging markets will account for 43% of worldwide SME ICT revenue by Regional trends: LATAM and SSA are experiencing the fastest rates of growth EMAP has the greatest absolute revenue growth 17. Regional trends: The strongest revenue growth in developed and emerging regions comes from mobile data and cloud services 18. Regional trends: CSPs are now focused on developing portfolios with customers entire technology journey in mind 19. Country-level trends 20. France: Cloud services will alleviate a falling SMT ICT revenue stream 21. Germany: A higher share of medium businesses secure a steady revenue growth stream 22. Indonesia: There is potential for strong SME ICT revenue growth, driven by mobile services in small enterprises 23. Malaysia: a strong medium-sized enterprise segment will drive overall SME ICT revenue growth 24. Spain: Loss of mobile revenue is the key driver behind falling SME ICT revenue 25. Turkey: Modest overall SME ICT revenue growth is driven by increased mobile revenue and cloud services 26. UK: SME ICT revenue remains flat because cloud services are replacing traditional fixed voice services 27. USA: Growth in the number of enterprises will keep SME ICT revenue on the rise 28. Forecast methodology and assumptions 29. Forecast methodology and assumptions: market definition 30. Forecast methodology and assumptions: methodology 31. Forecast methodology and assumptions: taxonomy [1] 32. Forecast methodology and assumptions: taxonomy [2] 33. Definition of geographical regions [1] 34. Definition of geographical regions [2] Analysys Mason Limited

4 Contents [2] 35. About the authors and Analysys Mason 36. About the authors 37. About Analysys Mason 38. Research from Analysys Mason 39. Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited

5 List of figures Figure 1: SME ICT services retail revenue, worldwide, Figure 2: SME ICT retail revenue by size of enterprise, worldwide, Figure 3: SME mobile retail revenue by service, worldwide, Figure 4: SME fixed voice retail revenue by service, worldwide, Figure 5: SME fixed broadband revenue by service, worldwide, Figure 6: SME cloud services revenue by service, worldwide, Figure 7: SME ICT retail revenue and share of total by region, Figure 8: SME ICT retail revenue by region, worldwide, Figure 9: SME ICT retail revenue per enterprise by service category, developed regions, 2014 and 2020 Figure 10: SME ICT retail revenue per enterprise, by service category, emerging regions, 2014 and 2020 Figure 11: Availability of cloud-based services to SMEs from main operators in eight countries, 2015 Figure 12a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, France, Figure 12b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, France, Figure 13a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, Germany, Figure 13b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, Germany, Figure 14a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, Indonesia, Figure 14b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, Indonesia, Figure 15a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, Malaysia Figure 15b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, Malaysia, Figure 16a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, Spain, Figure 16b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, Spain, Figure 17a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, Turkey Figure 17b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, Turkey, Figure 18a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, UK, Figure 18b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, UK, Figure 19a: SME ICT revenue by enterprise category, USA, Figure 19b: SME ICT revenue per enterprise by service category, USA, Figure 20: Micro-, small- and medium-sized SMEs as a proportion of enterprises and SME employees as a proportion of employees, worldwide Figure 21: Enterprises and employees by enterprise size, worldwide, 2014 Figure 22a: Regional breakdown used in this report Figure 22b: Regional breakdown used in this report Analysys Mason Limited

6 Revenue (USD billion) ICT services for SMEs: worldwide trends and forecasts Worldwide: Cloud retail revenue will grow rapidly, although penetration will remain low Cloud services revenue will grow from USD5.0 billion to USD22.9 billion in 2020, at a CAGR of 29.1%. Cloud services are becoming increasingly popular among SMEs, and revenue is increasing. Most growth is in developed markets, but these services will become increasingly important in emerging markets. Many operators offer cloud services, and the range of services is growing rapidly. Most vendors now use indirect channel partners (for example, CSPs) to deliver cloud services to SMEs. This report forecasts five cloud-based services: mobile device management (MDM), unified communications (UC), desktop management, infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) (including cloud computing, storage and back-up) and cloud software-as-a-service (SaaS). 1 We have selected these from the many that are available because they are the most communications-centric cloud-based services. There is a move away from a cloud marketplace to provisioning best of breed (that is, handpicked business applications that can be fully supported with not only a secure cloud platform, but also in terms of customer support cloud consulting, technical support and migration assistance). Penetration for all these services will increase as fixed and mobile Internet connections improve, and as SMEs engage in moreflexible working practices, and seek to avoid capex investment and adopt more smartphones and tablets in the workplace. 1 See taxonomy on slides 30 and 31. Figure 6: SME cloud services revenue by service, worldwide, Cloud SaaS Cloud IaaS Cloud Desktop management Cloud unified communications Mobile Device Management Source: Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited

7 Regional trends: CSPs are now focused on developing portfolios with customers entire technology journey in mind SME adoption of cloud services is uneven worldwide, with takeup in Asia and Europe lagging behind the USA. However, most SMEs are using some type of cloud service, without necessarily recognising them as such (for example, hosted , hosted website and online storage and backup). CSPs have extended their offerings from pure connectivity to unified communications, collaboration tools, cloud business applications, SaaS and mobilising business processes. SMEs are developing a taste for business productivity and CRM SaaS (such as Microsoft Office 365 or Salesforce), and many already have experience of using financial applications such as hosted payroll and accounting via the internet. In terms of cloud services, the focus is on best of breed apps that increase productivity (such as Office 365), or protect the business (for example, device security or asset tracking), or enable revenue (such as mobile point of sale). CSPs are also moving to take full control of cloud SME strategy, adding value with cloud enablement, provisioning and analytics. In this way, they do not over-rely on partners, but instead, they can leverage partners such as cloud brokers, ISVs and local partners when it makes sense O2 UK is very successful in selling Office 365 licences, and has made more than 100,000 deals since launching the service in Figure 11: Availability of cloud-based services to SMEs from main operators in eight countries, 2015 Country Mobile device management (MDM) Cloud service Unified Communications Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Softwareas-a- Service (SaaS) France Germany Indonesia Malaysia Spain Turkey UK USA Source: Analysys Mason Key: = no operators; = minority of operators; = 50% of operators; = majority of operators; = all operators. Analysys Mason Limited

8 CONTENTS WORLDWIDE TRENDS REGIONAL TRENDS COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS FRANCE GERMANY SPAIN UK USA TURKEY INDONESIA MALAYSIA FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON Analysys Mason Limited

9 About the authors Hilary Bailey (Head of Data) as worked for Analysys Mason for more than 20 years. She specialises in quantitative forecast modelling: she manages and is a key contributor to Analysys Mason s European Core Forecasts research programme, and helped to develop and implement our converged core forecast methodology. She is also one of the key contributors to Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe. She has previously specialised in telecoms price comparison studies encompassing fixed, mobile and the converged fixed/mobile markets. Hilary has a degree in Economics from the University of Bristol, and an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge. Analysys Mason Limited

10 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit Consumer and SME services Digital economy Regional markets Network technologies Telecoms software Strategy and planning Regulation and policy Performance improvement Transaction support Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit Analysys Mason Limited

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13 PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN DECEMBER 2015 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No Analysys Mason Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party. Analysys Mason Limited 2015