Connected cars: worldwide trends, forecasts and strategies

Transcription

1 Research Report Connected cars: worldwide trends, forecasts and strategies June 2014 Morgan Mullooly and Michele Mackenzie

2 2 About this report This report provides: Figure 1: Summary of report coverage [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] a 10-year forecast of the percentage of new passengercarrying road vehicles (cars) sold that include a connectivity solution, as well as the proportion of vehicles in use that have a connectivity solution key implications and recommendations for mobile network operators (MNOs) an in-depth analysis of trends in the automotive sector that will affect the growth of the connected car solution market an overview of key trends in the connected car sector. This report is based on several sources. Analysys Mason s internal research, including our forecasts of M2M device connections, revenue and average revenue per connection (ARPC), and interviews with stakeholders in the connected car market. We have also validated our assumptions by comparing them with operator insights and discussions with key stakeholders in the automotive sector. Geographical coverage Regions modelled: North America (NA) Western Europe (WE) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Developed Asia Pacific (DVAP) Emerging Asia Pacific (EMAP) Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Connectivity types Embedded fully semi hybrid Mobile device tethered Aftermarket modular commercial vehicle fleet tracking usage-based insurance (UBI)

3 3 Contents Slide no. 6. Executive summary 7. The market for connectivity solutions in cars is growing 8. Almost half of all vehicles will have embedded connectivity by 2024, despite the long lifespan of modern vehicles 9. Key implications 10. Key implications for mobile operators 11. Forecasts 12. A number of connectivity options are being used to connect vehicles to mobile networks 13. Embedded connectivity will be driven by sales of new cars, robust M2M module form factors and advances in SIM-card technology 14. Fully embedded connectivity enables vehicle owners to avoid complex set-up or device pairing processes, which could impair the user experience 15. Semi- and hybrid-embedded connectivity enables car owners to bring your own SIM (BYOS) 16. Embedded connectivity enables the best radio experience and vehicle design innovations are affecting the in-vehicle performance of handsets 17. The percentage of vehicles with embedded connectivity will be almost six times greater in 2024 than in 2014, growing from 15% to 89% 18. Mobile device tethered connectivity will be driven by new propositions, such as Apple CarPlay, MirrorLink and Google s Android Projected Mode Slide no. 19. VMs will not rely exclusively on a single mobile device tethering platform, so as to cater to their large and diverse consumer base 20. Mobile device tethered connections will grow from 4.3 million in 2014 to 645 million in 2024, at a CAGR of 65% 21. Innovative aftermarket OEMs are taking advantage of the momentum in the connected car market and forming partnerships with MNOs 22. We expect the overall market for aftermarket modular connectivity solutions to be small because it will experience significant challenges 23. Additional regional insight on the prospects for aftermarket modular telematics solutions 24. Aftermarket UBI connections will peak at 56 million in 2019, before declining as support for UBI through embedded connectivity increases 25. Commercial vehicle fleet tracking connections will grow from 45 million in 2014 to 177 million in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 15% 26. Key trends 27. Semi-autonomous vehicles are only a decade away from becoming commonplace 28. In the long term, autonomous cars will be entertainment hubs and drive huge volumes of mobile data 29. LTE is the basis for new connectivity services in the car 30. Case study: EE has prioritised building out LTE coverage for the UK s transportation network

4 4 Contents Slide no. 31. Operators can climb the connected car value chain with cloudconnected services that offer anywhere, any-access multimedia and SaaS 32. M2M middleware cloud platform providers are developing solutions that enable operators to create value-added services for VMs and end users 33. Some operators are beginning to capitalise on opportunities in the connected home space, which is linked to the connected car market 34. It is uncertain how willing consumers will be to pay for connected car services 35. Operators could increase connected car revenue by tapping into the big data opportunity, although ICT firms are better placed to do so 36. Regional insights 37. New car sales regional insight: forecasts for new vehicle sales and vehicles in use 38. New car sales regional insight: North America and Western Europe 39. New car sales regional insight: Central and Eastern Europe and Developed Asia Pacific 40. New car sales regional insight: Emerging Asia Pacific and Latin America 41. New car sales regional insight: the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa Slide no. 42. Market definition 43. Definition of geographical regions [1] 44. Definition of geographical regions [2] 45. About the authors and Analysys Mason 46. About the authors 47. About Analysys Mason 48. Research from Analysys Mason 49. Consulting from Analysys Mason

5 5 List of figures Figure 1: Summary of report coverage Figure 2: Percentage of new cars sold that include a connectivity solution by type, worldwide, 2014, 2019, 2024 Figure 3: Percentage of vehicles in use that include a connectivity solution, by solution type, worldwide, Figure 4: Summary of connectivity approaches for vehicle manufacturers Figure 5: The characteristics of fully embedded connectivity Figure 6: Examples of embedded connectivity partnerships and dates they were announced, selected operators Figure 7: The characteristics of semi- and hybrid-embedded connectivity Figure 8: Percentage of new cars sold that include an embedded connectivity solution, worldwide, Figure 9: Cars in use that include an embedded connectivity solution, by region, worldwide, Figure 10: The characteristics of mobile device tethered connectivity Figure 11: Consortiums that support mobile device tethered connectivity for vehicles Figure 12: Percentage of new cars sold that include a mobile device tethered connectivity solution, worldwide, Figure 13: Cars in use that include a mobile device tethered connectivity solution, by region, worldwide, Figure 14: The characteristics of aftermarket modular connectivity Figure 15: Vehicles in use that include a usage-based insurance connectivity solution, by region, worldwide, Figure 16: Vehicles in use that include a fleet management telematics solution, by region, worldwide, Figure 17: The evolution of user-facing automotive technology Figure 18: Mobile data traffic year-on-year growth, by region, Figure 19: XchangE autonomous vehicle concept by Rinspeed Figure 20: Operational LTE networks by region, 2Q 2014 Figure 21: EE case study Figure 22: Deutsche Telekom s personalised in-vehicle content concept Figure 23: Profiles of M2M middleware cloud platforms for supporting connected car services Figure 24: Nest integration in Mercedes IVI Figure 25: Deutsche Telekom s business model for connected car big data Figure 26: New car sales by region, worldwide, 2014 and 2024 Figure 27: Cars in use by region, worldwide, 2014 and 2024 Figure 28: Regional breakdown used in this report Figure 29: Regional breakdown used in this report

6 Percentage of new cars sold Cars (million) Connected cars: worldwide trends, forecasts and strategies The percentage of vehicles with embedded connectivity will be almost six times greater in 2024 than in 2014, growing from 15% to 89% Figure 8: Percentage of new cars sold that include an embedded connectivity solution, worldwide, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 15% 22% 30% 38% 48% 57% 66% 74% 80% 89% 85% Figure 9: Cars in use that include an embedded connectivity solution, by region, worldwide, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] SSA MENA LATAM EMAP DVAP CEE WE NA

7 NA WE CEE DVAP EMAP LATAM MENA SSA Vehicles (million) NA WE CEE DVAP EMAP LATAM MENA SSA Vehicles (million) Connected cars: worldwide trends, forecasts and strategies New car sales regional insight: forecasts for new vehicle sales and vehicles in use Figure 26: New car sales by region, worldwide, 2014 and 2024 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Figure 27: Cars in use by region, worldwide, 2014 and 2024 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] The economic climate has not been favourable for new car sales since around Consumers lacked confidence in the economy and postponed purchases. Pent-up demand for new vehicles will boost car sales worldwide in the next half decade, because sales in developed markets should return to normal levels. Sales will be strongest in the short term as dealers push sales to clear their stock backlog. However, new forms of car rental, leasing and sharing in developed markets will put some downward pressure on new sales. Companies such as DriveNow, Hailo, Liftshare, Sidecar and Uber enable easy and affordable rental and sharing of vehicles by using technologies such as smartphones, GPS, social networks, remote unlock, mobile payments, among others. The emergence of these dynamic carpooling businesses could affect sales in urban areas in particular where owning a car outright is less necessary than in rural and suburban areas, and where mobile network coverage is consistent. However, regulatory uncertainty is having an impact on these businesses. In the emerging Asia Pacific market, large populations, rapid economic growth, and a growing middle class will boost sales dramatically, from 26 million in 2014 to 82 million in 2024.

8 45 Executive summary Key implications Forecasts Key trends Regional insights Market definition About the authors and Analysys Mason

9 46 About the authors Morgan Mullooly (Analyst) is part of Analysys Mason s Enterprise team. His primary area of focus is on the machine-to-machine (M2M), or Internet of Things (IoT) sector. This includes analysis on a variety of topics including IoT enterprise requirements, forecasting, vendor profiles and service provider scorecards. Morgan was previously the lead analyst for Analysys Mason s Spectrum research programme, focusing on spectrum valuation, LTE strategies and white space technologies. Morgan has a Master s degree in Philosophy and Public Policy from the London School of Economics. Michele Mackenzie (Principal Analyst) is an analyst for Analysys Mason s IoT and M2M Solutions research programme. She has 15 years of experience as an analyst. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in February 2014, Michele was a freelance analyst with a focus on M2M and IoT technology and trends including smart cities, transport, intelligent buildings, fleet management and telematics. She has written reports for Machina Research and produced research for other clients on areas such as mobile broadband and digital media. Michele worked for Ovum for 12 years where she focused on consumer mobile applications and held various roles including Practice Leader for Consumer Services. She has also worked as a consultant for Ovum's consultancy division.

10 47 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit

11 48 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and services with customised industry intelligence and insights. To find out more, please visit

12 49 Consulting from Analysys Mason For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real results for clients around the world. Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on operational performance and develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart. We help clients solve their most pressing problems, enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their commercial objectives. To find out more, please visit

13 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any clientspecific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.